ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[Cackalacky]

By the way, the way this season is going I think my preferred model of a 6 team playoff is even more preferable.

8 teams would probably eliminate most of the discussions we are having, which is no fun.

4 teams leaves out a worthy Power 5 champ or a worthy ND or a combination of both.

6 teams gives ND a fair chance every year (or any at-large team) and still allows every Power 5 team to have a worthy representative.

The 6-team playoff leads to a scenario of a bye week for the highest two ranked teams. I don't think the Committee would want to defend that choice nor would the other 4 teams like that the other two teams get a week off. I think it has to be 4 or 8.

 

[irish4ever]

By the way, the way this season is going I think my preferred model of a 6 team playoff is even more preferable.

8 teams would probably eliminate most of the discussions we are having, which is no fun.

4 teams leaves out a worthy Power 5 champ or a worthy ND or a combination of both.

6 teams gives ND a fair chance every year (or any at-large team) and still allows every Power 5 team to have a worthy representative.

Probably the driving reason for the ones that object to a 6-game playoff. The ones that either despise ND in general and/or pissed because ND is not affiliated with a conference playoff.

 

[wizards8507]

By the way, the way this season is going I think my preferred model of a 6 team playoff is even more preferable.

8 teams would probably eliminate most of the discussions we are having, which is no fun.

4 teams leaves out a worthy Power 5 champ or a worthy ND or a combination of both.

6 teams gives ND a fair chance every year (or any at-large team) and still allows every Power 5 team to have a worthy representative.

The flaw with this is that "power five" is arbitrary and temporary. You cant revise the playoff model every time the AAC or MAC get hot.

 

[gkIrish]

The 6-team playoff leads to a scenario of a bye week for the highest two ranked teams. I don't think the Committee would want to defend that choice nor would the other 4 teams like that the other two teams get a week off. I think it has to be 4 or 8.

I think it's less pressure on the Committee to determine the top 2 seeds than to determine which 5th and 6th team to leave out. Ultimately, under the current system or a 6 team system, they still have to rank the top 2 teams. It's not extra work.

Probably the driving reason for the ones that object to a 6-game playoff. The ones that either despise ND in general and/or pissed because ND is not affiliated with a conference playoff.

Well it wouldn't just benefit ND. Every conference would have a better shot at getting 2 teams in than they otherwise would. And there's very little risk that a conference will get left out.

The flaw with this is that "power five" is arbitrary and temporary. You cant revise the playoff model every time the AAC or MAC get hot.

I'm not saying the Power 5 teams automatically get a spot. But most years, there are 5 Power 5 teams more deserving than a AAC or MAC team.

 

[BobbyMac]

By the way, the way this season is going I think my preferred model of a 6 team playoff is even more preferable.

8 teams would probably eliminate most of the discussions we are having, which is no fun.

4 teams leaves out a worthy Power 5 champ or a worthy ND or a combination of both.

6 teams gives ND a fair chance every year (or any at-large team) and still allows every Power 5 team to have a worthy representative.

The 4 team playoff format is SILLY. It leaves the current system open to criticism for leaving worthy teams out, it doesn't fit the current conference structure, it goes against what the majority of fans want to see so therefore it leaves a sh!t ton of money on the table by not satisfying the consumer demand.

The 4 team playoff leaves out 4 games (vs. the 8 team format) that would generate a $2 Billion economic impact for the universities, NCAA, host cities / venues and broadcast networks.

 

[Cackalacky]

I think it's less pressure on the Committee to determine the top 2 seeds than to determine which 5th and 6th team to leave out. Ultimately, under the current system or a 6 team system, they still have to rank the top 2 teams. It's not extra work.

Extra work is no the issue. Its the added benefit of a week off favoring two teams in particular. The issue is the additional implications of determining the top two teams and them deserving the extra game off forcing the reaming two teams to play one extra game. Talk about blow back....

Have 4 teams or 8 teams. Everyone plays the same amount. No problems.

 

[Black Irish]

While a team getting left out of the playoffs for losing their conference championship game may not be a rule, my speculation is that it weighs very heavily on the selection committee's decision. I'd say the championship games are the unofficial first round of the playoffs, and, therefore, de-facto elimination games.

 

[nsisk157]

I don't think they would take it that much into account.
I think there are a number of factors that need to happen for us to even be considered.

Stanford has to win out until our showdown last game of the season.
OSU still has Mich St and Mich. Either way OSU/MSU gets 1 loss.
Clemson has not been as dominate and impressive as their ranking proves and still has to get past FSU.
TCU still has Baylor which awards either of them 1 loss.
And Bama still has LSU which would give 1 of them at least 1 loss.

Long as we meet up with Stanford both at 10-1 we should have a tremendous opportunity of getting the bid for the final four.

Beat Temple.

100% is where our heads should be. I love the "what ifs" because they're fun, but we have a ranked Temple squad this week, a ranked Pitt the following week (who loves to play us tough/beat us), WF... BC in Fenway and then Stanford.

One game at a time lads. 3 of the next 4 are losable games based on the past 15+ years of ND football.

Beat Temple.

 

[stlnd01]

100% is where our heads should be. I love the "what ifs" because they're fun, but we have a ranked Temple squad this week, a ranked Pitt the following week (who loves to play us tough/beat us), WF... BC in Fenway and then Stanford.

One game at a time lads. 3 of the next 4 are losable games based on the past 15+ years of ND football.

Beat Temple.

Bingo.
We have to take care of our business. The rest usually takes care of itself.

 

[Irish#1]

That makes zero sense to me. Conference championships are elimination games. You lose, you are out. They have stated how much value they put on championship game winners, they have not yet been presented with a case of the favored teams losing. WTF could justify putting a losing team in over the team that just beat them for a championship? Only case I can see this happening is if the conference gets two teams put in the playoffs because everyone else sucks.

That's not a rule. If that were a rule, then every single person bitching about ND's schedule being unfair because we don't play in a conference championship game is correct. The CFP is supposed to be the four best teams. Not the four best conference champions, or the four teams whose losses came earliest in the season. Four best teams.

I agree.

If LSU is 12-0 heading into the SEC championship against a 2 loss Florida and the Pac-12, ACC & ND all have 2 losses. LSU will still be a playoff team regardless of the outcome of that game IMO.

It's not a rule, but it's a late season loss and those carry more weight than earlier in the year. The committee wants teams peaking and hitting on all cylinders.

 

[RDU Irish]

Which is why beating BC by 40 and Stanford by 20+ would go a long way to solidifying a 11-1 season resume. That could very well be the difference between us and some other 12-1 team.

 

[zelezo vlk]

I'd feel a lot better about the Stanford game if Jarron was playing...

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[stlnd01]

I'd feel a lot better about the Stanford game if Jarron was playing...

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Stanford's what they've been saving Jay Hayes for.

 

[wizards8507]

It's not a rule, but it's a late season loss and those carry more weight than earlier in the year.

We have absolutely nothing to base that on. Ohio State didn't beat TCU and Baylor into the playoff because they lost earlier, they beat TCU and Baylor into the playoff because they slaughtered the #13 team in the country to finish 12-1, which is better than 11-1 no matter when you lsoe.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Which is why beating BC by 40 and Stanford by 20+ would go a long way to solidifying a 11-1 season resume. That could very well be the difference between us and some other 12-1 team.

Which we all know will not happen

Pitt by 7, SU by 3

 

[RDU Irish]

We have absolutely nothing to base that on. Ohio State didn't beat TCU and Baylor into the playoff because they lost earlier, they beat TCU and Baylor into the playoff because they slaughtered the #13 team in the country to finish 12-1, which is better than 11-1 no matter when you lsoe.

Last year,

#1 Alabama lost on October 6th by six to Ole Miss

#2 Oregon lost at home on October 2nd to Arizona by 7 (Oregon then beat them 51-13 in the conference championship)

#3 FSU was undefeated and got smoked by Oregon Jan 1st

#4 OSU lost on September 6th to Virginia Tech by 14 AT HOME

Baylor and TCU were the only other 1 loss teams out there.

Baylor lost on October 18th AT West Virginia by 14
TCU lost on October 11th AT Baylor by 3 (turned around and killed #15 OKSt 42-9 the following week while Baylor was losing to WV)


End of the season, there were only 6 teams to consider. OSU snuck in and there is no way it happens if they lose later in the season.

 

[wizards8507]

Last year,

#1 Alabama lost on October 6th by six to Ole Miss

#2 Oregon lost at home on October 2nd to Arizona by 7 (Oregon then beat them 51-13 in the conference championship)

#3 FSU was undefeated and got smoked by Oregon Jan 1st

#4 OSU lost on September 6th to Virginia Tech by 14 AT HOME

Baylor and TCU were the only other 1 loss teams out there.

Baylor lost on October 18th AT West Virginia by 14
TCU lost on October 11th AT Baylor by 3 (turned around and killed #15 OKSt 42-9 the following week while Baylor was losing to WV)


End of the season, there were only 6 teams to consider. OSU snuck in and there is no way it happens if they lose later in the season.

All of that is coincidental. Baylor and TCU both had absolutely shit out of conference schedules. Not that Ohio State's was tremendously powerful, but it was stronger. 12-1 is better than 11-1, it just is. 11-1 doesn't become superior if the "1" on 12-1 came in November.

 

[irishfan]

All of that is coincidental. Baylor and TCU both had absolutely shit out of conference schedules. Not that Ohio State's was tremendously powerful, but it was stronger. 12-1 is better than 11-1, it just is. 11-1 doesn't become superior if the "1" on 12-1 came in November.

Yes, IMO the OOC is what got Ohio State in last year. The committee would have been sending a terrible message to pick 11-1 Baylor over 12-1 OSU due to Ohio State losing to VA Tech in September. If they passed over OSU, they would essentially been telling teams that they're better off scheduling Tennessee Tech than Virginia Tech....aka scheduling like Baylor does.

 

[BobbyMac]

All of that is coincidental. Baylor and TCU both had absolutely shit out of conference schedules. Not that Ohio State's was tremendously powerful, but it was stronger. 12-1 is better than 11-1, it just is. 11-1 doesn't become superior if the "1" on 12-1 came in November.

Are you saying that if tOSU would have lost to Indiana last year instead of VT they still make the playoffs?

 

[Irish#1]

All of that is coincidental. Baylor and TCU both had absolutely shit out of conference schedules. Not that Ohio State's was tremendously powerful, but it was stronger. 12-1 is better than 11-1, it just is. 11-1 doesn't become superior if the "1" on 12-1 came in November.

OK

 

[wizards8507]

Are you saying that if tOSU would have lost to Indiana last year instead of VT they still make the playoffs?

Assuming they still do to Wisconsin what they did to Wisconsin, absolutely. Ohio State would have been unanimous number one going into the Indiana game. The loss to Indiana would have dropped them to number 7, in between Baylor and two-loss UCLA. Mississippi State loses to Alabama, moving Ohio State to number 6. We enter championship week as follows:

1. Alabama (11-1)
2. Oregon (11-1)
3. TCU (10-1)
4. Florida State (12-0)
5. Baylor (10-1)
6. Ohio State (11-1)

Ohio State demolishes Wisconsin and jumps both TCU and Baylor.

Put it this way: Ohio State was ranked higher than Baylor and jumped TCU. If Ohio State had lost late in the season, the worst case scenario heading into the Wisconsin game is #6 behind Baylor and TCU. If what they did to Wisconsin was enough to jump #3 TCU, it's certainly enough to jump #3 TCU and #5 Baylor.

OK

It is, that's just a fact. Ohio State was already behind TCU having lost early in the season. They JUMPED them, based on the Wisconsin game. Their final position had nothing to do with the loss. Lose early: start behind TCU and jump them. Lose late: start behind TCU and jump them. The timing of the loss may have affected their standing going into the championship game, but it has nothing to do with what happened in the post-championship week rankings.

 

[JTLA]

I figure:

#1 Clemson goes 13-0 and is in
#2 Alabama gets in at 12-1

- 2 loss Michigan wins the B1G over Iowa (MSU loses twice, UM beats OSU)
- 2 loss Stanford and 3 loss USC battle for the PAC12
- Baylor, TCU, and Ok State all lose at least one
- Notre Dame finishes 11-1 with wins over 10-2 Stanford, 9-3 USC, 10-2 Temple, 9-3 Pittsburgh, 9-3 Navy, 7-5 GT, 7-5 Texas, and a 2pt loss to the #1 undefeated team in the country.
- Under this scenario a B12 team gets in at #4, ND is #3

Hello playoffs.
Hello Alabama.
Hello Clemson rematch for the title.

For all this to happen I don't think I'm asking for a single upset of greater than 6 points.

 

[wizards8507]

I figure:

#1 Clemson goes 13-0 and is in
#2 Alabama gets in at 12-1

- 2 loss Michigan wins the B1G over Iowa (MSU loses twice, UM beats OSU)
- 2 loss Stanford and 3 loss USC battle for the PAC12
- Baylor, TCU, and Ok State all lose at least one
- Notre Dame finishes 11-1 with wins over 10-2 Stanford, 9-3 USC, 10-2 Temple, 9-3 Pittsburgh, 9-3 Navy, 7-5 GT, 7-5 Texas, and a 2pt loss to the #1 undefeated team in the country.
- Under this scenario a B12 team gets in at #4, ND is #3

Hello playoffs.
Hello Alabama.
Hello Clemson rematch for the title.

For all this to happen I don't think I'm asking for a single upset of greater than 6 points.

Bolded seems like the least likely component. I don't see TCU losing to anyone in the Big 12. I don't think they're very good, but I don't have much respect for the Big 12 in general.

 

[stlnd01]

I figure:

#1 Clemson goes 13-0 and is in
#2 Alabama gets in at 12-1

- 2 loss Michigan wins the B1G over Iowa (MSU loses twice, UM beats OSU)
- 2 loss Stanford and 3 loss USC battle for the PAC12
- Baylor, TCU, and Ok State all lose at least one
- Notre Dame finishes 11-1 with wins over 10-2 Stanford, 9-3 USC, 10-2 Temple, 9-3 Pittsburgh, 9-3 Navy, 7-5 GT, 7-5 Texas, and a 2pt loss to the #1 undefeated team in the country.
- Under this scenario a B12 team gets in at #4, ND is #3

Hello playoffs.
Hello Alabama.
Hello Clemson rematch for the title.

For all this to happen I don't think I'm asking for a single upset of greater than 6 points.

Certainly possible. Though I've got a simpler scenario:
Personally if Clemson wins out and Stanford (or I suppose USC) wins the Pac 10, I think we get in over any one-loss teams from the Big 12 and Big 10.
Good seasons from Temple, Pitt, USC and perhaps still Texas are gravy.
Most important things for our case, IMO (beyond, of course, Notre Dame winning all its games, ideally in impressive fashion):

- Undefeated Clemson
- Stanford wins Pac-10
- Everyone in the Big 12 loses at least once OR Everyone in the Big 10 loses at least once

That likely makes it:
Clemson
Bama/LSU winner (and presumptive SEC champ)
The lone undefeated Big 12/Big 10 team
Notre Dame

I'd sure take a rematch with Clemson to go to the national championship. Wouldn't you?

 

[irishfan]

Bolded seems like the least likely component. I don't see TCU losing to anyone in the Big 12. I don't think they're very good, but I don't have much respect for the Big 12 in general.

They nearly lost at K-State and at Texas Tech. They 100% should have lost the TT game. I think they lose at OU. Their defense is very beat up right now.

 

[wizards8507]

Certainly possible. Though I've got a simpler scenario:
Personally if Clemson wins out and Stanford (or I suppose USC) wins the Pac 10, I think we get in over any one-loss teams from the Big 12 and Big 10.
Good seasons from Temple, Pitt, USC and perhaps still Texas are gravy.
Most important things for our case, IMO (beyond, of course, Notre Dame winning all its games, ideally in impressive fashion):

- Undefeated Clemson
- Stanford wins Pac-10
- Everyone in the Big 12 loses at least once OR Everyone in the Big 10 loses at least once

That likely makes it:
Clemson
Bama/LSU winner (and presumptive SEC champ)
The lone undefeated Big 12/Big 10 team
Notre Dame

I'd sure take a rematch with Clemson to go to the national championship. Wouldn't you?

I don't think we get in over a 12-1 Ohio State. Maybe we should, maybe we shouldn't. But I don't think we do. Even simpler scenario:

- Two-loss Clemson wins the ACC
- Stanford wins Pac-10

Then it's SEC, Notre Dame, Big 12, Big 10.

 

[gkIrish]

We will get in over a 1-loss Big Ten champ. Guarantee it. Not SEC or ACC though.

 

[Irish#1]

They nearly lost at K-State and at Texas Tech. They 100% should have lost the TT game. I think they lose at OU. Their defense is very beat up right now.

Tech gave that game away.

 

[wizards8507]

We will get in over a 1-loss Big Ten champ. Guarantee it. Not SEC or ACC though.

Not even defending champion THE Ohio State University? Shit would burn.

 

[irishfan]

We will get in over a 1-loss Big Ten champ. Guarantee it. Not SEC or ACC though.

I don't think we do. Iowa has an underrated profile right now, and will probably be ahead of us in the first committee rankings. That's going to be a big win for OSU/MSU in the conference championship.