2016 Presidential Horse Race

[kmoose]

Biden is running.

...........or not

Biden is out.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Big sigh of relief for Hillary today

 

[ACamp1900]

got to hand it to the dems when it comes to the 'chess board'... they are def better at that... everything is a unified effort to win power, everything else be damned.

 

[Corry]

It's crazy this Benghazi hearing is still going strong. I would have cried uncle a long time ago.

 

[Cackalacky]

...........or not

Biden is out.

Thanks bro.

 

[Rhode Irish]

It's crazy this Benghazi hearing is still going strong. I would have cried uncle a long time ago.

I've never been crazy about HRC, but dealing with this nonsense has elevated her in my eyes. Poetic justice that this witch hunt will end up helping her immensely when the entire point of it was to do the exact opposite.

 

[Rhode Irish]

got to hand it to the dems when it comes to the 'chess board'... they are def better at that... everything is a unified effort to win power, everything else be damned.

Really? I've always felt the opposite - that republicans are terrible at governing but great at politics. I don't think the democrats are very politically savvy; they are too focused on, you know, actual policy. Republicans have impeached Bill Clinton essentially for banging an intern, won the 2004 election by "swiftboating" Kerry and mobilizing a daffy religious sect around social issues with no actual policy initiative in play, forwarded a narrative characterizing Obama as a non-American (both figuratively and, incredibly, literally), and now doing this absurd Benghazi dance to try to sandbag Hillary Clinton.

 

[Cackalacky]

Really? I've always felt the opposite - that republicans are terrible at governing but great at politics. I don't think the democrats are very politically savvy; they are too focused on, you know, actual policy. Republicans have impeached Bill Clinton essentially for banging an intern, won the 2004 election by "swiftboating" Kerry and mobilizing a daffy religious sect around social issues with no actual policy initiative in play, forwarded a narrative characterizing Obama as a non-American (both figuratively and, incredibly, literally), and now doing this absurd Benghazi dance to try to sandbag Hillary Clinton.

Don't forget that they also said the moment she gets into office they will impeach her.

 

[IrishinSyria]

So everyone is willing to admit that the whole Benghazi thing has been a politically motivated witch hunt/waste of government resources at this point, yes?

 

[Rhode Irish]

Don't forget that they also said the moment she gets into office they will impeach her.

Also, as far as the "chess board," let's not pretend that there would not be a democratic majority in the House if it weren't for all the gerrymandering on the part of republicans. Honestly, I find the suggestion that the democrats are master tacticians and republicans are just trying to govern to be laughable, at best.

 

[wizards8507]

Also, as far as the "chess board," let's not pretend that there would not be a democratic majority in the House if it weren't for all the gerrymandering on the part of republicans. Honestly, I find the suggestion that the democrats are master tacticians and republicans are just trying to govern to be laughable, at best.

Wrong. Gerrymandering is worth net +7 for the Republicans according to hardcore statisticians. They're currently +33. I agree that it's a problem, but it wouldn't flip the majority.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Really? I've always felt the opposite - that republicans are terrible at governing but great at politics. I don't think the democrats are very politically savvy; they are too focused on, you know, actual policy. Republicans have impeached Bill Clinton essentially for banging an intern, won the 2004 election by "swiftboating" Kerry and mobilizing a daffy religious sect around social issues with no actual policy initiative in play, forwarded a narrative characterizing Obama as a non-American (both figuratively and, incredibly, literally), and now doing this absurd Benghazi dance to try to sandbag Hillary Clinton.

We know Democrats are great at "policy." Just look at Detroit.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Wrong. Gerrymandering is worth net +7 for the Republicans according to hardcore statisticians. They're currently +33. I agree that it's a problem, but it wouldn't flip the majority.

You are right that it probably wouldn't flip this Congress, but I'm not sure I buy that it is only worth 7 seats, either. Regardless, the Constitution should be amended to ban the practice.

 

[NDgradstudent]

You are right that it probably wouldn't flip this Congress, but I'm not sure I buy that it is only worth 7 seats, either. Regardless, the Constitution should be amended to ban the practice.

Density = Democrats. If you look at Cook PVI ratings, you see that the Democrats have 17 seats +30 or higher, while the GOP has 2. GOP voters tend to be more spread out, so there are still lots of "safe" seats- but they are +15, not +30.

 

[Rhode Irish]

We know Democrats are great at "policy." Just look at Detroit.

Definitely always legit to point to one city as a referendum on whether a party is "great at policy" (which is a turn of phrase I may have to borrow). I don't know anything about the political history of Detroit, but I don't think it seems reasonable to blame local politicians for a problem that resulted from macroeconomic changes to how global trade works.

Also, I could say "just look at the whole south," which is run exclusively by republicans and has by far the highest poverty rates in the country and the lowest levels of education. Just about every major city in the country leans heavily left.

So unless you want to compare levels of wealth and education and any other standard of living metric you'd like in republican and democratic parts of the country, I'd stay away from cherrypicking one city that had its economy collapse as your example because I think overall that is a very bad argument for you.

 

[drayer54]

Seriously, who is this guy hanging out with that is feeding him full of thoughts of becoming president. Delusional.

He's probably got a more impressive resume than the majority on that stage. He isn't a radical left winger, like the rest who happen to be in the race. He didn't have a great debate, at all, or even close to it.... but I would take him over the alternative.

He was my first Senate vote and the reason my GI BILL is much improved.

 

[Cackalacky]

Also, as far as the "chess board," let's not pretend that there would not be a democratic majority in the House if it weren't for all the gerrymandering on the part of republicans. Honestly, I find the suggestion that the democrats are master tacticians and republicans are just trying to govern to be laughable, at best.

Agree. If the Dems.actually had their shit together the republicans would be in very bad position electorally.

 

[Buster Bluth]

If you look at Cook PVI ratings, you see that the Democrats have 17 seats +30 or higher, while the GOP has 2. GOP voters tend to be more spread out, so there are still lots of "safe" seats- but they are +15, not +30.

Isn't that kind of the evidence of gerrymandering? They load up districts to +30 so they can win more of the +15s?

Take a look at Ohio's district 9 after the new census and redistricting. They grouped the Democrats in Toledo and Cleveland into one district. Totally insane.

So now I'm in OH-5, a district that hasn't seen an incumbent lose since 1938. Wut.

 

[Cackalacky]

2012 Presidential Election Results

 

[NDgradstudent]

Definitely always legit to point to one city as a referendum on whether a party is "great at policy" (which is a turn of phrase I may have to borrow). I don't know anything about the political history of Detroit, but I don't think it seems reasonable to blame local politicians for a problem that resulted from macroeconomic changes to how global trade works.

Also, I could say "just look at the whole south," which is run exclusively by republicans and has by far the highest poverty rates in the country and the lowest levels of education. Just about every major city in the country leans heavily left.

So unless you want to compare levels of wealth and education and any other standard of living metric you'd like in republican and democratic parts of the country, I'd stay away from cherrypicking one city that had its economy collapse as your example because I think overall that is a very bad argument for you.

It's certainly true that other Democratic cities are not war-zones. Still, when a city is driven into the ground, it is not usually by a Republican- even controlling for the fact that few Republicans run major cities. When Republican-type policies are instituted by Democrats, other Democrats often move to destroy them (see Michelle Rhee in Washington).

Obviously, demographics also play a major role in the fate of cities like Detroit- and also explain many of the problems in the South. No government can turn Mississippians into Minnesotans. Bear in mind though that state governments in the South remained in Democratic control until recently. Off the top of my head, Georgia only flipped in 2004, Tennessee in 2010, and Arkansas and West Virginia in 2014 (these are just examples but it is true for basically the entire South).

In my view, the Republicans are much more of an ideological coalition than the Democrats. Basically, the more similar you are (demographically, not personally) to George Washington the more likely you are to be Republican. The less similar you are, the more likely you are to be a Democrat. Resentment toward the historic population core for some reason or other unites a party of wildly different interests (single women, atheists, blacks, gays, Jews, Mexicans, public employees, etc). Mormons are really the only group in the GOP that is like that, and of course they do not resent the historic core but instead try to be more like it.

 

[GoIrish41]

He's probably got a more impressive resume than the majority on that stage. He isn't a radical left winger, like the rest who happen to be in the race. He didn't have a great debate, at all, or even close to it.... but I would take him over the alternative.

He was my first Senate vote and the reason my GI BILL is much improved.

The GI Bill is "socialism" that helps/helped you and I so Webb isn't a "radical left winger?" But what makes the other Dems "radical left wingers"? Policies to help other groups of people? Not attacking you, but interested in hearing your distinction. I like Webb, too, but he is a centrist republican in terms of policy, IMO. He was outgunned in the debate for sure, but he is a reasonable fellow.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Isn't that kind of the evidence of gerrymandering? They load up districts to +30 so they can win more of the +15s?

It could be, but the pattern holds in states where the GOP does not control the legislature or where redistricting is "nonpartisan," such as California, Illinois, and Washington. Yeah, your district was obviously gerrymandered, but I don't think it's so insane. That's the right of the winning party, and its always been done. Even in safe seats, such as in Chicago, the Democrats draw districts to feature a certain racial makeup (the "Hispanic seat," the "black seat," etc.- see IL-4 for the most glaring example).

I don't think it makes too much difference in the composition of the House. I am very skeptical of "nonpartisan commissions" doing anything, either.

 

[Rhode Irish]

It could be, but the pattern holds in states where the GOP does not control the legislature or where redistricting is "nonpartisan," such as California, Illinois, and Washington. Yeah, your district was obviously gerrymandered, but I don't think it's so insane. That's the right of the winning party, and its always been done. Even in safe seats, such as in Chicago, the Democrats draw districts to feature a certain racial makeup (the "Hispanic seat," the "black seat," etc.- see IL-4 for the most glaring example).

I don't think it makes too much difference in the composition of the House. I am very skeptical of "nonpartisan commissions" doing anything, either.

I don't care who draws the lines, because I don't think there should be any art to it. All district lines should have to arrow straight (except where there are natural or territorial borders) and should be spaced in such a way as to make all districts contain the same number of people within a certain percentage.

 

[yankeehater]

Really? I've always felt the opposite - that republicans are terrible at governing but great at politics. I don't think the democrats are very politically savvy; they are too focused on, you know, actual policy. Republicans have impeached Bill Clinton essentially for banging an intern, won the 2004 election by "swiftboating" Kerry and mobilizing a daffy religious sect around social issues with no actual policy initiative in play, forwarded a narrative characterizing Obama as a non-American (both figuratively and, incredibly, literally), and now doing this absurd Benghazi dance to try to sandbag Hillary Clinton.

I love how being impeached on two counts, (1) perjury, (2) obstruction of justice according to you is translated into essentially banging an intern.

 

[kmoose]

I love how being impeached on two counts, (1) perjury, (2) obstruction of justice according to you is translated into essentially banging an intern.

Yeah, who gives a fvck if the President is a lying bastard. It's not like they did anything to Nixon for it.......... huh?
They what? Oh...............

 

[BGIF]

Really? I've always felt the opposite - that republicans are terrible at governing but great at politics. I don't think the democrats are very politically savvy; they are too focused on, you know, actual policy. Republicans have impeached Bill Clinton essentially for banging an intern, won the 2004 election by "swiftboating" Kerry and mobilizing a daffy religious sect around social issues with no actual policy initiative in play, forwarded a narrative characterizing Obama as a non-American (both figuratively and, incredibly, literally), and now doing this absurd Benghazi dance to try to sandbag Hillary Clinton.

Arkansas and SCOTUS disbarred Clinton over perjury/contempt of court resulting from his lying UNDER OATH during the investigation/testimony about banging an intern.

I did NOT have sex with that woman.

WJC

 

[ACamp1900]

Odd to me how the leftists see Dems in wash as the party of policy who don't play politics, I honestly see no policy at all from most leftist politicians, just politics and win at all costs manipulation of special interests and certain demographics. Clearly we see different realities, and I guess that's fine... Just funny to me.

 

[connor_in]

 

[Rhode Irish]

Arkansas and SCOTUS disbarred Clinton over perjury/contempt of court resulting from his lying UNDER OATH during the investigation/testimony about banging an intern.


WJC

OK, but why was there an investigation about banging an intern? Who cared in the first place?

 

[Cackalacky]

OK, but why was there an investigation about banging an intern? Who cared in the first place?

Dennis Hastert cared.... lol lmao