I get that he publicly criticized the staff but if he was sure that he would be transferring after this season why would the staff even keep him on the roster? Why is he still on campus? To me, it's just a kid that might be a bit homesick, frustrated at a lack of playing time, and he does what quite a few other kids would do - acts like a kid. I'm not ready to write him off yet. I can remember a couple of ND players that had similar problems that stuck it out - Louis Nix being the first one that comes to mind.
I'm not ready to write him off either, but we can be 90% sure that somebody will transfer after this season. It happens every year, can't be avoided. At this point, Hayes is clearly the most likely transfer candidate, so for the purposes of figuring out how many spots we will have left for this signing class, I'm counting him as a transfer. I'm essentially just using him as a placeholder for "somebody will transfer" because he's the most likely.