Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

Brian Kelly Revisited


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MNIrishman

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Technically, yes.

But he has an outlier season. He's avg 8.25 wins over 4 full seasons. The 12-win season skews that upward. I know you can't really look at it that way and it's cherry picking. But in my line of work we tend to eliminate outliers, so it's a common exercise for me to ignore it and focus on the more common occurrences: BK at ND is an 8 to 9- win coach with one good season. That's just how I look at it.

But yes, you are right, technically.

Eliminating outliers is only statistically valid if your sample size is sufficiently large, or if there's an obvious reason why a measurement should be discounted (first season, Heisman QB, etc.). So here, you really ARE just cherrypicking. I don't know what your line of work is, but it seems to involve statistics, so it's kind of weird for you not to know that it isn't ok to look at statistics that way.
 

gkIrish

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Eliminating outliers is only statistically valid if your sample size is sufficiently large, or if there's an obvious reason why a measurement should be discounted (first season, Heisman QB, etc.). So here, you really ARE just cherrypicking. I don't know what your line of work is, but it seems to involve statistics, so it's kind of weird for you not to know that it isn't ok to look at statistics that way.

Many of the impact players on that team weren't BK's recruits so that, in addition to the other data points being both consistent and different from the outlier, are enough to make 2012 an outlier. It's not like he had 5 wins, , 8 wins, 7 wins, 9 wins, 12 wins. Then it wouldn't be an outlier. The reality is that it's 7, 8, 12, 8, 7. (also known as a bell curve)
 

woolybug25

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I'm comparing Virginia Tech to teams like Virginia. Using VTech as an example of good teams losing to bad teams would be like me using Notre Dame as an example of Michigan St. losing to a bad team.

And actually Virginia averaged about 9.7 regular season wins from 2004-2011 so it's not like they are some scrub program that OSU lost to. That's the point.

They might have been decent between '04-'11, but in 2014..... they went 7-6.

VT was not a decent football team last year. They lost to Wake Forest & East Carolina....
 

BleedBlueGold

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Eliminating outliers is only statistically valid if your sample size is sufficiently large, or if there's an obvious reason why a measurement should be discounted (first season, Heisman QB, etc.). So here, you really ARE just cherrypicking. I don't know what your line of work is, but it seems to involve statistics, so it's kind of weird for you not to know that it isn't ok to look at statistics that way.

Does Heisman runner-up LB count? lol. All joking aside. I'm not in statistics. I don't claim to know much about it. I work in oncology. Specifically, the physics department. There are times when data is collected and analyzed. Outliers are treated as such. Sometimes causing tests to be reran, sometimes not. I get what you're saying though, which is why I even stated that I was cherry picking in order to make a point (eventhough it may come across as invalid to some).
 

Ndaccountant

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Many of the impact players on that team weren't BK's recruits so that, in addition to the other data points being both consistent and different from the outlier, are enough to make 2012 an outlier. It's not like he had 5 wins, , 8 wins, 7 wins, 9 wins, 12 wins. Then it wouldn't be an outlier. The reality is that it's 7, 8, 12, 8, 7. (also known as a bell curve)

Just to be fair, if you discount 2012 b/c they were not his players, shouldn't you do the same thing for 2011 and 2010?
 

kmoose

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I've gone over this a million times. It's okay to play down to your opponent or to lose a game you shouldn't once in a while. It's not okay to do it 6-7 times a season. This isn't the NFL where you can lose to Jacksonville in Week 3 and it has little effect overall. You lose to Northwestern at home in CFB and the season is over,

Can you name me a couple of the seasons that you are referring to, when you say "play down to your opponent or to lose a game you shouldn't... 6-7 times a season"? And what criteria are you using to determine "playing down to an opponent"? Are you basing it on your emotional response to the game, or on some quantifiable measurement?
 

Irish#1

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I'm pretty sure if we went undefeated three years in a row, somebody would be bitching because we only beat Navy 30-20 instead of 75-0.
 

woolybug25

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At least Chip kelly averaged 11.5 wins at Oregon.

Oh wait, nobody averages 10 wins a season.

Back to accepting mediocrity.

Back to this again? Nobody said that coaches don't win 10 games a season. I pointed out to you that there is only one active coach that's done that over his career.

You told us that was the "floor" for success in your opinion. As in, you would want to fire anyone that doesn't have a MINIMUM of Chip Kelly success.
 

ACamp1900

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I'm pretty sure if we went undefeated three years in a row, somebody would be bitching because we only beat Navy 30-20 instead of 75-0.

maybe so, but the vast majority of emotions from ND's base exist bc of the title drought imo... if ND were to win one and stay a contender moving forward from that 90 plus percent of all complaints would melt away.
 

Irish Insanity

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Back to this again? Nobody said that coaches don't win 10 games a season. I pointed out to you that there is only one active coach that's done that over his career.

You told us that was the "floor" for success in your opinion. As in, you would want to fire anyone that doesn't have a MINIMUM of Chip Kelly success.
I never once mentioned firing anyone. However I'd be down to swap Kelly for Kelly possibly.
 

WestCoast

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I don't have a "job" of promoting anything.

The Kelly has had teams quit when the tough got going. It was primarily when he first got here. I won't say the entire team quit, but players quit and he had to play them out of necessity, because the previously regime did so poorly at recruiting depth at so many positions.

It's the first step in winning a National Title. A coach can't a have roster of kids that only try when they want to. You run into a Charlie Weis team and you never know which team will show up simply from an effort standpoint. When the tough gets going, you don't want to see kids quit. Last year at USC, ND was getting their ass smacked for 4 quarters, yet only kid quit. Jacob Matuska was going to get his ass handed to him most plays, but he was fighting. You didn't see that when in Kelly's first couple years from every player and you certainly didnt see it under Charlie Weis.



Let down games. It's the beauty of college football man. Teams aren't going smack lesser teams week in and week out. Notre Dame played a great game to open the season, chances are they weren't going to duplicate that on the road. You don't think that Jon Tenuta was a little extra fired up to play ND? You don't think UVA had the ND game circles all summer as it was the first time ND had played in their house? I get it. I would love to see Notre Dame stomp on teams throats when they get up. Is it Brian Kelly's fault when Zaire misses multiple open guys or consistently makes the wrong read on read option in short yardage? A coach can only coach his guys up so much. Players need to make plays on the field.

Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech at home, beat PENN STATE 31-24 in OT, beat Minnesota 31-24, beat Indiana 42-27 and beat Michigan 42-28 last year. I wouldn't say they stepped on teams throats last year when they got up. Did they have more blowouts? Sure, but i would be willing to bet in ND played their schedule you would see a few more blowouts.

In 2014,

Alabama beat WVU 33-23..a 7-6 WVU team. Bama lost to Ole Miss, beat Arkansas 14-13, beat Tennessee 34-20 and I wouldn’t consider Tennessee a good football team last year.

Oregon beat WASHINGTON STATE 38-31, lost to Arizona, beat CAL 59-41.

Teams have struggle with teams they shouldn't all the time. Teams get fired up to play the top dog. Notre Dame is always going to be the top dog in a matchup because of the name alone. When you're a program with prestige teams are going to give their best shot every week. It's not practical for a team to play 15 perfect games. You win and you move on.


I am just stating what you're arguing happens at every program in the country. It's college football.

I am not saying Brian Kelly is the perfect coach, because he and his staff could be doing a number of things better. But when you look at the finer details when push comes to shove it's not that bad. It's game 2. Notre Dame doesnt have a RB that has played RB in a game before this fall. They have two inexperienced OL who should grow from their lack of attention to detail last week. They have a cornerback who is learning how to play a new position after missing an entire year.

You claim you're not promoting anything but this post is an example of your carrying the water for this coaching staff.

First, when the teams you mention have had close games that probably should not be close, they usually win them. The complaint is not that Brian Kelly's ND teams have had close games. It that his teams have close games that should not be close and (other than 2012) lose on average 2-3 of them per season. A pattern is forming, and the pattern is not that Brian Kelly likes to live dangerously but somehow always seems to win.

Second, two of the three teams you mentioned with close games (that they end up winning most of the time), have gone on to win championships. Brian Kelly's only season at ND where he won all the close ones did not end in a championship victory. If winning the games ND is supposed to win (even if close) were the norm, the discussion would not be what it is.

Third, it's time to stop making the same illogical excuses.
1) Notre Dame doesnt have a RB that has played RB in a game before this fall. 2) They have two inexperienced OL who should grow from their lack of attention to detail last week. 3) They have a cornerback who is learning how to play a new position after missing an entire year.

Folston being injured in game 1 and having to rely on inexperienced RBs was not why ND played Virginia close. (In fact, if everyone is being honest, Zaire getting injured is not why ND played Virginia close. The offense came out flat, didn't execute, the offensive playcalling did not adjust and focus on what was working, and the defensive secondary wilted... again.)

Procise had 12 carries for over 100 yards in the first half. But inexplicably, he only received 5 more carries in the second half. How is looking at that "finer detail" anything but an in game coaching failure? Adams was doing well also, but only received 10 carries total. Williams received zero carries. If Zaire was off that game, ride the horse that's winning and what was winning was hand-offs to the RBs.

During his VA post game press conference, Kelly was asked why they haven't utilized the TEs more and he stated because of what the opposing defenses have shown. The fact is, ND is supposedly TE-U, but so far its base is 3-WR sets (with two ineffective WRs in Brown & Carlisle) and ignore the TE. Winning teams play to their strengths; they don't go away from their strengths because the other team might anticipate what the offense might do.

2) Brian Kelly is in year 5. If he put two young OL in the starting lineup that play poorly because they are "inexperienced" it is because he failed to recruit and develop talent in earlier recruiting classes that were capable of playing high level football. This is not an excuse, it is a condemnation against him that he isn't doing the job.

3) Same point as #2. Russell is not playing a new position. But if he is the best option in year 5, then Brian Kelly isn't doing his job because he failed to recruit and develop talent to fill that spot.

4) Opponents "getting up" - People need to stop pretending that opponents "circling ND on their calendar" is a motivating factor that is exclusive to ND. No-name teams that play Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon or other big name programs would like to knock them off and get their name in the papers too. Yet those big name teams end up winning more than a majority of the time, even if the game is closer than it should be. If Brian Kelly can't overcome the other teams getting up for his big-name team, then maybe he belongs at the no-name schools.
 

woolybug25

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I never once mentioned firing anyone. However I'd be down to swap Kelly for Kelly possibly.

So what did you mean by "10 wins being the minimum standard"?

Because you absolutely said that.

Did you mean that the administration should have a stern talking to with the coach? Maybe send them to their bedroom with no dessert? No video games for a week?
 

woolybug25

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maybe so, but the vast majority of emotions from ND's base exist bc of the title drought imo... if ND were to win one and stay a contender moving forward from that 90 plus percent of all complaints would melt away.

There were tons of people that wanted Holtz out. It's always been this way, wins be damned.
 

gkIrish

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They might have been decent between '04-'11, but in 2014..... they went 7-6.

VT was not a decent football team last year. They lost to Wake Forest & East Carolina....

The point is that VT is not a shitstain program like Virginia. Virginia has done nothing since I've been following collegiate sports. An 8 win season for Virginia is celebrated. Same with Northwestern. Same with Navy. Same with Tulsa.. etc. etc.

Just to be fair, if you discount 2012 b/c they were not his players, shouldn't you do the same thing for 2011 and 2010?

If you want to, sure. So he is a 7.5 win coach.

Can you name me a couple of the seasons that you are referring to, when you say "play down to your opponent or to lose a game you shouldn't... 6-7 times a season"? And what criteria are you using to determine "playing down to an opponent"? Are you basing it on your emotional response to the game, or on some quantifiable measurement?

I'm talking about games we either lost or struggled mightily against highly inferior talent.
I'm talking about:

2010: getting blown out by Navy, Tulsa, struggling against Purdue and Pitt
2011: USF, struggling against Pitt, Wake Forest, BC
2012 we can just ignore despite some struggles
2013: struggling against Purdue Navy taking us to the wire, PITT
2014: struggling against UNC, ASU whooping us, Northwestern, Navy, Louisville,

Not even including all the Michigan losses despite us probably having more talent every single time.

That's 16!!!!! games in 4 seasons NOT including losses to actual quality opponents like USC, Stanford, Michigan St., etc. I mean what top program loses 2-3 games a year and then struggles to beat a horrible team and/or loses to a bad team another 3-4 times. That's not what we're looking for.
 
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NDohio

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At least Chip kelly averaged 11.5 wins at Oregon.

Oh wait, nobody averages 10 wins a season.

Back to accepting mediocrity.

Funny thing is that Chip Kelly was often criticized for beating up on average to below average teams and consistently choking in the one big game they have each year and not making to /winning championships.
 

kmoose

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So what did you mean by "10 wins being the minimum standard"?

Because you absolutely said that.

Did you mean that the administration should have a stern talking to with the coach? Maybe send them to their bedroom with no dessert? No video games for a week?

Mandatory sensitivity training; 40 hours a week for 12 weeks of the offseason.

:wink:
 

irishtrain

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Par for the course with you.

Remember before the 2012 season where you said ND would never be competitive again (or something ludicrous like that)? And then you went on and on all off-season that it was over for ND? How did that turn out?

Just like I mentioned in another thread…why do people have to make over-the-top, ridiculous statements just to make their points? Is your argument that weak that you have to basically make shit up, or make us believe you don’t know a thing about college football? Posts like the above are friggin’ ridiculous, and not worthy of any further response.

Two points then I'll be gone. First my inference to injuries was made in regard to pushing hard when not prepared to go that hard. It had nothing to do with the coaches-sometimes its hard to convince the players that the opponent is going to extend them. Its a tough nasty sport that does produce injuries. I think these guys started to believe their pre season press clippings and thought Va was a rollover game. When you extend beyond the limits of how you practice in any sport injuries occur. They let Va extend them. Second I'm 'out' on anymore comments about this football program for whatever period of time I choose. The reason is if you cant vent or respond to the teams play then why comment. Bringing up stuff from 2012 was a bit over the top, but as you please on your posts. I'm taking a break from posting and hoping to be wrong on the next few weeks about the Irish against Tech/Clemson.
 

Ndaccountant

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The point is that VT is not a shitstain program like Virginia. Virginia has done nothing since I've been following collegiate sports. An 8 win season for Virginia is celebrated. Same with Northwestern. Same with Navy. Same with Tulsa.. etc. etc.



If you want to, sure. So he is a 7.5 win coach.



I'm talking about games we either lost or struggled mightily against highly inferior talent.
I'm talking about:

2010: getting blown out by Navy, Tulsa, struggling against Purdue and Pitt
2011: USF, struggling against Pitt, Wake Forest, BC
2012 we can just ignore despite some struggles
2013: struggling against Purdue Navy taking us to the wire, PITT
2014: struggling against UNC, ASU whooping us, Northwestern, Navy, Louisville,

Not even including all the Michigan losses despite us probably having more talent every single time.

So he is a 7.5 win coach over two years in which he had terrible suspensions and injuries that plagued the team? I am not giving him a pass, but if you discount the first three years of his time on campus, then I am not sure you can say definitively that he is nothing more than an 8 win coach. The sample size is too small and is riddled with outside influences.

Personally, his players or not, he got it done in 2012 and I will give him credit for that. I just don't know how much of it was stars aligning versus how bad ND's luck has been in 2013, 2014 and now 2015.
 

RDU Irish

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I am going to discount November last year due to injuries. That makes us 8-1 for the season giving Kelly two one loss seasons! Sign him for another 10 years!

I like bowls, they show how your team stacks up at the end of the season. We have had some good ones the last five years.

2010 - Beat Miami
2011 - lost 18-14 to Florida State
2012 - lost to Bama
2013 - Beat Rutgers
2014 - Beat LSU

3-2 bowl record, total wins of 8-8-12-9-8

Prior to that, NO BOWL in 2009, 6-6 team beat Hawaii in 2008, NO BOWL in 2007, 41-14 loss to LSU in 2006, 34-20 Fiesta Bowl loss to OSU in 2005, 2004 Insight.com bowl loss to Oregon State, 2003 NO BOWL, 2002 lose Gator Bowl 28-6 to NC State after 10-2 regular season, 2001 NO BOWL, 2000 lose 41-9 to Oregon State in Fiesta Bowl, 1999 NO BOWL, 1998 Gator Bowl loss to Ga Tech to finish 9-3, 1997 lose 27-9 to LSU after 7-5 season.....

Not exactly a stellar post season record. You kind of have to walk before you run.
 

gkIrish

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So he is a 7.5 win coach over two years in which he had terrible suspensions and injuries that plagued the team? I am not giving him a pass, but if you discount the first three years of his time on campus, then I am not sure you can say definitively that he is nothing more than an 8 win coach. The sample size is too small and is riddled with outside influences.

Personally, his players or not, he got it done in 2012 and I will give him credit for that. I just don't know how much of it was stars aligning versus how bad ND's luck has been in 2013, 2014 and now 2015.

I do give him credit for 2012, a lot of credit actually. But he took all that success in year 3 and did diddly squat with it.

I just feel like 2012 is an outlier. If he won 10 games in any other season I would probably have a completely different opinion because it would show that he is capable getting back to the natty.
 

Ndaccountant

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I do give him credit for 2012, a lot of credit actually. But he took all that success in year 3 and did diddly squat with it.

I just feel like 2012 is an outlier. If he won 10 games in any other season I would probably have a completely different opinion because it would show that he is capable getting back to the natty.

Oh I agree, I just don't think we have seen a team from ND since 2012 at full strength. He absolutely shoulders some of that blame. But I am just not certain he can or can't yet.
 

Irish Insanity

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So what did you mean by "10 wins being the minimum standard"?

Because you absolutely said that.

Did you mean that the administration should have a stern talking to with the coach? Maybe send them to their bedroom with no dessert? No video games for a week?
I know what I said. I've never denied it. But repeating it to me over and over won't change my opinion.
There are 13 games in a successful season. There is no teasing we shouldn't win 10 of those. You don't have to agree with that.
 

ACamp1900

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It is totally reasonable to expect 10 wins from Notre Dame... but doing so every year is something else.
 

woolybug25

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I know what I said. I've never denied it. But repeating it to me over and over won't change my opinion.
There are 13 games in a successful season. There is no teasing we shouldn't win 10 of those. You don't have to agree with that.

You keep saying that you "never said the coach should be fired" if they don't hit your "floor of 10 wins".

So answer that... what exactly is supposed to happen?
 

kmoose

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I'm talking about games we either lost or struggled mightily against highly inferior talent.
I'm talking about:

2010: getting blown out by Navy, Tulsa, struggling against Purdue and Pitt

Navy: no argument. That's 1.
Tulsa: Tulsa went 10-3 in 2010. There's no doubt that ND is a better historical program, but there's a lot of doubt as to whether 2010 ND was superior to 2010 Tulsa.
Purdue: We beat Purdue by double digits. Debatable whether or not you could call that "struggling mightily".
Pitt: ND won by 6 points, but Pitt was 8-5 that year, the same as us. Debatable as to whether we were more talented.

2011: USF, struggling against Pitt, Wake Forest, BC

USF: USF went 5-7 that year. No excuses. That's 2.
Pitt: 6-7 that year, we beat them by 3 points. That's 3
Wake Forest: 6-7 that year, we beat them by a touchdown. That's 4
Boston College: went 4-8 that year, we beat them by 2 points. That's 5

2013: struggling against Purdue Navy taking us to the wire, PITT

Purdue: went 1-11 that year, we beat them by one touchdown. That's 6
Navy: Navy went 9-4 in 2013. So it's debatable, again, if we were the better team that season
Pitt: Pitt went 7-6 that year, and they beat us by a TD. That's 7

2014: struggling against UNC, ASU whooping us, Northwestern, Navy, Louisville,

I'm just going to concede all 5 of these, while pointing out that all but one (UNC) came after the defensive was absolutely decimated by injuries.

So, in summary, in 5 seasons, we have a total of 12, by my count. That's a far cry from "6-7 times a season". There's certainly room to criticize the coaches and demand more from the program, but it should be reasoned and quantifiable criticism.
 

RDU Irish

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With 13 game seasons I don't think 10 win average wins is completely unattainable at all. Championship will require 13 or 14 wins most likely and I think we can do that in one of the next three years with what has been built. If we don't at least hit the playoffs in any of the next three seasons I would be surprised. That includes this year.
 

anarin

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If we lose by a little to GT, then the grumblings will be "kelly should've had kizer ready", "I'm not sure they know how to develop talent"

If we get blown out, this board will go on full meltdown (you know who you are, hell most of the board knows who you are). You will see immediate, "time for kelly to go", "bvg is clueless" posts.

If we win? "GT was a bit overrated", "Kelly's play calling was horrible and he got bailed out",

You guys are funny
 

BleedBlueGold

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If we lose by a little to GT, then the grumblings will be "kelly should've had kizer ready", "I'm not sure they know how to develop talent"

If we get blown out, this board will go on full meltdown (you know who you are, hell most of the board knows who you are). You will see immediate, "time for kelly to go", "bvg is clueless" posts.

If we win? "GT was a bit overrated", "Kelly's play calling was horrible and he got bailed out",

You guys are funny

If we get blown out, there's a huge reason to start questioning BK and especially BVG. Coach Elliott has been prepping for this game for a long time. If they can't formulate a game plan and execute it to at the very least slow GT down, there is something seriously wrong.

If ND loses by a score or two, I'm not going to freak out. GT is a good team. Alot of teams have trouble slowing them down. As II put it, "GT gets off the bus with 28 points." If ND gets blown out, it will probably have to do with a combination of 1) the defense just can't get enough stops and 2) the offense, with Kizer's first start, just can't keep up. The former is unacceptable. The latter is at least understandable. If it's a complete blow out, I'll seriously take a step back. But a score or two. Meh. Regroup. On to UMass.
 
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