2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GoIrish41]

I think they are hitting on a few if not important topics the voters care about but the establishment is all" HEY HEY HEY...why are you being Noisy. Sit down, play ball and STFU with telling people how it really is".

Maybe, but ther sure are a lot of people willing to support an idiot, and that tells more of a story about the voters than the candidate or the establishment. He has said almost nothing of substance. Even his "view" on immigration seem to have been stumbled upon after what appeared to be an impromptu announcement. He has not even hinted at a logical solution to any problem. That makes him a bad candidate. What does it say about the millions who support him even though he is an arrogant, offensive, moron. To me it says there are a whole bunch of people who like the belligerent buffoon with no intelligence type. Trump is appealing to the craziest tea party sort of voters who have given us "compromise is a dirty word", "Obamacare is the devil", "the president was born in Kenya." -- the same people who watch celebrity apprentice and comment about how much of a genius the Donald is". Why do those people flock to the GOP? It is a problem the are going to have to face one of these days or they might never win a national election again.

 

[Grahambo]

Isn't this something you aren't supposed to advertise? Some poor schmuck is probably out there right now reading through all of your posts and searching for your online aliases in an attempt to gather intel. You also already post the state you live in on your profile. Having heard of the Air Force families being harassed earlier this year because of their social media profiles, I'd suggest some caution.

No, that information is not classified and is in fact on my resume, along with thousands, if not hundreds of thousands.

As for your final sentence, I already know about the types of harassment. I know what I'm doing but thanks.

 

[GoIrish41]

ah..that establishment...

Don't count Paul out yet. Lets see what happens in New Hampshire. I do think there are too many "alternative" candidates for him to put together a Paul coalition, so I don't know how much he is going to say until that field gets narrowed...He seemed like he wanted Trump and Christie off the stage ...NOW! So maybe his strategy is to get some shots in, survive and advance until he is the alternative????

Good post!

 

[Cackalacky]

Maybe, but ther sure are a lot of people willing to support an idiot, and that tells more of a story about the voters than the candidate or the establishment. He has said almost nothing of substance. Even his "view" on immigration seem to have been stumbled upon after what appeared to be an impromptu announcement. He has not even hinted at a logical solution to any problem. That makes him a bad candidate. What does it say about the millions who support him even though he is an arrogant, offensive, moron. To me it says there are a whole bunch of people who like the belligerent buffoon with no intelligence type. Trump is appealing to the craziest tea party sort of voters who have given us "compromise is a dirty word", "Obamacare is the devil", "the president was born in Kenya." -- the same people who watch celebrity apprentice and comment about how much of a genius the Donald is". Why do those people flock to the GOP? It is a problem the are going to have to face one of these days or they might never win a national election again.

You are giving Trump far too much credit. He is flinging shit at the wall waiting for something to stick. Then he justs talks about how great he is even though all he is doing is talking about shit he threw on a wall.

 

[GoIrish41]

I think that's almost the converse of how to look at it.

I think that the premise is that Trump's positions will appeal to a small-but-big-enough portion of the Republican base, which will be enough to undermine any chance of a Republican winning. There's not a need to explain why people support him... the inherent premise is that you have a large chunk of right wingers that are all too eager to support a "tell it like it is" bigot.

So you get him to run and ultimately take maybe 5% of the vote away from a Republican candidate (while also providing distraction throughout the primary season) and then Hillary wins in a landslide.

Fair point, you are right. That is a sound theory. I did not look at it that way.

But I am more focused on the fact that they even thought it was viable plan to attract even 5 percent of their voters to that dope. That is millions of people. It is astonishing really that there is a predictable number of nitwits in that party. Trump would get no traction if he ran as a Democrat, but he is beating the GOP's best and brightest by being a cartoon of the party's poorest qualities and greatest weaknesses.

 

[GoIrish41]

You are giving Trump far too much credit. He is flinging shit at the wall waiting for something to stick. Then he justs talks about how great he is even though all he is doing is talking about shit he threw on a wall.

I 100 percent agree, but that shit he is spewing is sticking to a lot of people. That is my larger point.

 

[Cackalacky]

I 100 percent agree, but that shit he is spewing is sticking to a lot of people. That is my larger point.

It sure is.

 

[BGIF]

I will say this... after deliberating on and reading about the first debate... I honestly think it was a concerted effort to hit Trump and Paul hard. They received by far the hardest hardball questions. IMO Trump crushed the questions without actually saying anything but Paul actually seemed to punt on his platform (not including the NSA). Megyn Kelly was actually coming at Trump from the left in several questions....

Frank Luntz had a pollster panel ready to rub Trump in the dirt.

If I learned anything from the first debate is that the establishment really doesn't want Paul or Trump to get the nomination.

In Luntz's focus session AFTER the debate most of the pre-debate Trump fans and there were many, dropped Trump based upon his performance, specifically his response about a Third Party run.

The moderators hit the perceived weaknesses of the candidates, some handled it well others didn't.

 

[kmoose]

Just out of curiousity............. what exactly makes Trump "a bigot"?

 

[ACamp1900]

Just out of curiousity............. what exactly makes Trump "a bigot"?

He has "R" next to his name....

 

[Cackalacky]

In Luntz's focus session AFTER the debate most of the pre-debate Trump fans and there were many, dropped Trump based upon his performance, specifically his response about a Third Party run.

The moderators hit the perceived weaknesses of the candidates, some handled it well others didn't.

Luntz is the top GOP pollster. His after debate panel was overwhelmingly against Trump and wasnt reflective of other polls for the same debate.
Donald Trump versus GOP pollster Frank Luntz - Business Insider

Trump is currently the front-runner in Republican primary polls. During the debate, he faced tough questions from Fox News moderators on his past comments about women, his business record, and his controversial positions on immigration.

In the hour after the debate, Fox News featured Luntz's focus group, as well as commentary from hosts and guests who described Trump's performance as a "collapse." Cohen described this as an "insidious" attempt to spread the perception that Trump lost the debate.

"They attempted to create a negative narrative of Mr. Trump both during and after the debate but failed," Cohen said. "Their actions are insidious and not in line with viewers or the American people as Mr. Trump won, according to three independent polls."

I agree Trump is a child and I would not put it past him to generate controversy but its hard to deny the response by Fox and Luntz as opposed to much of the crowd and many other polls.

 

[GoIrish41]

Just out of curiousity............. what exactly makes Trump "a bigot"?

He convinced me when he said all Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. Even he knew that was beyond the pale so he used the subtle charm of his and qualified it with "I'm sure some of them are also good people." Perhaps your bigot meter is not as sensitive as mine?

 

[GoIrish41]

He has "R" next to his name....

Racist ... It is all beginning to make sense ...

 

[IrishJayhawk]

He convinced me when he said all Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. Even he knew that was beyond the pale so he used the subtle charm of his and qualified it with "I'm sure some of them are also good people." Perhaps your bigot meter is not as sensitive as mine?

The Mythical Connection Between Immigrants and Crime - WSJ

Written by a conservative, FWIW. Much of what he's talking about seems to include both illegal and legal immigrants. But the point still stands. Most Mexican immigrants want to work and send money home to their family.

 

[kmoose]

He convinced me when he said all Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. Even he knew that was beyond the pale so he used the subtle charm of his and qualified it with "I'm sure some of them are also good people." Perhaps your bigot meter is not as sensitive as mine?

That's not what he said. So maybe your bigot meter is overriding your ability to hear what is said, not what you want to hear?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Surprisingly, that quiz paired me with:

Bernie Sanders - 84%

Hillary Clinton - 77%

Mike Huckabee - 69%

Rand Paul - 65%

I was already starting to lean towards ol' Bernie if a Democrat was to be elected.

Anyone else sharing their results?

He isn't a Democrat. He's a socialist. Oh wait...the DNC chair can't explain the difference.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

He convinced me when he said all Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. Even he knew that was beyond the pale so he used the subtle charm of his and qualified it with "I'm sure some of them are also good people." Perhaps your bigot meter is not as sensitive as mine?

Please show us the quote where he said "all" Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. Nevermind. You can't.

 

[GATTACA!]

That's not what he said. So maybe your bigot meter is overriding your ability to hear what is said, not what you want to hear?

But....but.....only Fox News is biased! My news provider wouldn't slant the story!

 

[GATTACA!]

In Luntz's focus session AFTER the debate most of the pre-debate Trump fans and there were many, dropped Trump based upon his performance, specifically his response about a Third Party run.

The moderators hit the perceived weaknesses of the candidates, some handled it well others didn't.

Everyone knows he isnt serious about a third party run. First he isn't gonna sink that type of of his own money into this. Second as he has stated before he's only holding out on that issue to make sure he's treated fairly. If he falls behind by a lot and is clearly not the people's pick he will drop out, but if he's still up 10 points and the RNC nominates someone else then he will run as a third party.

 

[Cackalacky]

He isn't a Democrat. He's a socialist. Oh wait...the DNC chair can't explain the difference.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Please show us the quote where he said "all" Mexican immigrants are rapists and murderers. Nevermind. You can't.

He didn't say that they all are. You're right. That was an exaggeration (see the post...he did acknowledge that Trump said that some were likely good people). But he did imply that the vast majority of them are criminals. If you don't read it from this exact quote, we can just agree to disagree.

When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

"Some" clearly implies that it's a handful. The vast majority, on the other hand, are drug dealers, criminals, and rapists.

More than that, it's simply not true.

The Mythical Connection Between Immigrants and Crime - WSJ

Donald Trump’s false comments connecting Mexican immigrants and crime - The Washington Post

If his claims are not factual, and the data seem to indicate that they are not, the claims are fear mongering based on race. Call it whatever you choose.

 

[kmoose]

He didn't say that they all are. That's certainly true. But he did imply that the vast majority of them are. If you don't read it from this exact quote, we can just agree to disagree.



"Some" clearly implies that it's a handful. The vast majority, on the other hand, are drug dealers, criminals, and rapists.

More than that, it's simply not true.

The Mythical Connection Between Immigrants and Crime - WSJ

Donald Trump’s false comments connecting Mexican immigrants and crime - The Washington Post

He also said "When Mexico sends.......", not "when Mexicans decide to come over.......". I thought he was pretty clearly accusing the Mexican government of sending chronic criminals across the border so that they (the Mexican government) wouldn't have to deal with them. This is not exactly a far-fetched idea, either. Castro did just that, during the Mariel boatlift. I'm not saying that he has any proof of this happening; I'm only saying that his remark could very well have been something other than bigoted rhetoric.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

He also said "When Mexico sends.......", not "when Mexicans decide to come over.......". I thought he was pretty clearly accusing the Mexican government of sending chronic criminals across the border so that they (the Mexican government) wouldn't have to deal with them. This is not exactly a far-fetched idea, either. Castro did just that, during the Mariel boatlift. I'm not saying that he has any proof of this happening; I'm only saying that his remark could very well have been something other than bigoted rhetoric.

I see what you're saying. I guess I just don't think he was dealing in that much nuance. I think he was just saying that Mexican immigrants are generally criminals.

 

[kmoose]

I see what you're saying. I guess I just don't think he was dealing in that much nuance. I think he was just saying that Mexican immigrants are generally criminals.

It's not a new position for him...

–Trump, interview on Fox News’ “Media Buzz,” July 5, 2015

“What can be simpler or more accurately stated? The Mexican Government is forcing their most unwanted people into the United States. They are, in many cases, criminals, drug dealers, rapists, etc.”

 

[IrishJayhawk]

It's not a new position for him...

That comment happened a few weeks after the initial one. It's possible that's what he meant. It's also possible that the second comment was damage control.

Assuming that's what he meant, what is the evidence for the claim?

ETA: Also...if it's a government conspiracy to send the worst people, why would he assume that some "are good people"?

 

[IrishLax]

I despise Donald Trump for his comments, because they are woefully ignorant.

The vast majority of Latino/Chicano immigrants are people willing to make gigantic sacrifices/risks in order to better their families. The idea is not that these people will make good lives for themselves... it's that their children and then their children's children will be better off for their efforts. On top of that, I personally people without papers who send a large chunk of their very small paychecks back home to family in El Salvador, Guatemala, etc. where their extended family lives daily on something like $1-$5 a person. So even someone working below minimum wage over here is making orders of magnitude more money than their families back in Central/South America and something like $100 can be literally life changing. The amount of money I make in 2 hours can be enough to provide a month of food, seeds for planting for a year, a stove, etc... literally life changing for people living on nothing.

These people are not "rapists"... and they're not "sent by Mexico." Also, USA has little to no need of "skilled" labor right now, so Trump's point defeats itself even if it was accurate at all.

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Al Gore Insiders “Figuring Out If There’s A Path” For Him To Run <a href="http://t.co/YOzDQexbC4">http://t.co/YOzDQexbC4</a></p>— Andrew Kaczynski (@BuzzFeedAndrew) <a href="https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/631932718113288192">August 13, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[GoIrish41]

He also said "When Mexico sends.......", not "when Mexicans decide to come over.......". I thought he was pretty clearly accusing the Mexican government of sending chronic criminals across the border so that they (the Mexican government) wouldn't have to deal with them. This is not exactly a far-fetched idea, either. Castro did just that, during the Mariel boatlift. I'm not saying that he has any proof of this happening; I'm only saying that his remark could very well have been something other than bigoted rhetoric.

Seemed pretty clear to like everyone else in the country what he meant. I don't get why you are having trouble understanding.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I despise Donald Trump for his comments, because they are woefully ignorant.

The vast majority of Latino/Chicano immigrants are people willing to make gigantic sacrifices/risks in order to better their families. The idea is not that these people will make good lives for themselves... it's that their children and then their children's children will be better off for their efforts. On top of that, I personally people without papers who send a large chunk of their very small paychecks back home to family in El Salvador, Guatemala, etc. where their extended family lives daily on something like $1-$5 a person. So even someone working below minimum wage over here is making orders of magnitude more money than their families back in Central/South America and something like $100 can be literally life changing. The amount of money I make in 2 hours can be enough to provide a month of food, seeds for planting for a year, a stove, etc... literally life changing for people living on nothing.

These people are not "rapists"... and they're not "sent by Mexico." Also, USA has little to no need of "skilled" labor right now, so Trump's point defeats itself even if it was accurate at all.

One of the best posts I've seen for a while.

 

[Cackalacky]

I have visited Honduras. I spent two weeks with my wife and her friend in Peace Corps. I saw the entire country from Utila, to La Ceiba, to her host family's home on the side of a mountain near the Nicaraguan border.

I paid around $20 for a 50 lb bag of flour and 5 lbs of cured meat as agift to the host family for letting us stay few nights not thinking much of it because what is $20. How quickly things change. I ended up riding a former United States yellow school bus (full capacity) up the mountain and across a dry river bed from the village below. Then I hauled the flour and meat and my backpack another half mile through a foot path in the jungle to our village which was little more than a wide path lined with eight masonry single room houses. That flour and meat was more than they would buy in six months. We enjoyed a home cooked meal and conversedas well as we could for an evening. As it turned out rains were coming and we would be stuck up in the village if we didnt leave the next day (we would have mised our flights out because the dry river bed would be uncrossable for an indeterminate amount of time). So the host father convinces a person from the nearby community further up the path to take us down in his truck (as he really is the only guy with one nearby), before the rains. He agreed to so we packed into the back of the pickup truck with five other people and traversed the unpaved road back down the mountain. We had to stop at a wake half way down. That took about an hour as the driver waited in line at a house to pay his respects. Anyway we made it back down to the village and caught a bus back to Choluteca.

My wife and I still get letters today from that family. Anyway I firmly believe you dont truly know people till you walk a mile in their shoes. The moral of my story is Trump can eat a bag of dicks.