NFL Fantasy Football 2014

[#1rish]

Anyone else think CJ Anderson is a 1st rounder? I know it's a little bullish but now with Kubiak's offense, I think he'll take off. It did wonders for Forsett. Was one of the best RBs after he took over towards the end of last year.

 

[woolybug25]

Generous might not be the right word, but it kind of eliminates the intended strategy and competitive balance that you usually see with a keeper league.

If I drafted Odell Beckham late in the draft last year and want to keep him, there should be something working in my favor over guys that are keeping players from early-round draft picks.

Keeper leagues were around far before auction and legacy leagues. So I would argue that keepers weren't originally intended for competitive balance. They were supposed to just be a fun way for guys to have some continuity from one year to the next. Like most things in FF, it's warped into that and caused the pendulum to sway the opposite direction. After all, if competitive balance was the intention, then the most competitive thing to do would be eliminating keepers all together and have everyone draft on the same footing every year.

Why do you think you deserve more for finding a keeper like everyone else. Should you be punished for your keeper from last year not turning out?

 

[IrishLion]

Keeper leagues were around far before auction and legacy leagues. So I would argue that keepers weren't originally intended for competitive balance. They were supposed to just be a fun way for guys to have some continuity from one year to the next. Like most things in FF, it's warped into that and caused the pendulum to sway the opposite direction. After all, if competitive balance was the intention, then the most competitive thing to do would be eliminating keepers all together and have everyone draft on the same footing every year.

Why do you think you deserve more for finding a keeper like everyone else. Should you be punished for your keeper from last year not turning out?

I guess there are different types of keeper leagues. I would prefer a league that has some competitive repercussions based on who you're keeping, but I have absolutely nothing against a league such as yours. Continuity can be sweet too.

I didn't mean for it to sound critical, I just understood where nlroma1o was coming from with his initial post.

As to your question at the end: In my league, for added strategy/drafting implications, I would prefer some repercussions based on the keeper. If my friend wants to keep Peyton Manning, that's cool. But if my best player was Odell Beckham, the values there clearly don't match up. So I think something to balance that would be fair. It's a risk/reward thing based on keeping a guy worth a high-pick that might have a down year, versus trying to spot a late-round gem that will be a more worthwhile keeper in terms of the next draft.

 

[RDU Irish]

Anyone else think CJ Anderson is a 1st rounder? I know it's a little bullish but now with Kubiak's offense, I think he'll take off. It did wonders for Forsett. Was one of the best RBs after he took over towards the end of last year.

How one guy ended up with Charles, Murray and Anderson is beyond me but it made him pretty hard to beat. This year he will have just one dominant RB keeper to start and the other two will be scooped up by the time he gets to pick at #12. I'm hoping one of the two drop to me at #9 but I doubt it.

Straight up draft is he worth one of the top 12 picks? I think that would be a stretch.

Do you think Forsett maintains top 10 RB numbers or due for a slide?

 

[RDU Irish]

Our league ranks you by how you finished last year. The worst team last year will get to keep Peyton Manning or Le'Veon Bell. If he is smart he will take Bell and another best RB available since Charles or Murray will be dropped. That leaves Manning available for the second worst team if he wants them.

Bigger draft advantage for the worst teams but your best players are going to be off the board. Might be the biggest disadvantage for guys without top tier RB or QB that is an obvious no brainer keeper.

 

[nlroma1o]

Wooly - I didn't mean to offend you by using the word generous. Sorry for using that wording. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the way your keeper league works. Every league is set up their own unique way. You just dont see that type of format very often. Atleast I dont.

My work keeper league doesnt even let you keep players drafted in the first 3 rounds. And the player you decide to keep, you get him 2 rds ahead of where u got him the year prior. So last year, i drafted Jeremy Hill in the 9th rd. I'm keeping him, so this year at our draft, I wont have a pick in the 7th rd. I will just have Jeremy Hill in that spot. In this scenario you kinda get rewarded for doing your homework and drafting players with high future upside.

 

[woolybug25]

I guess there are different types of keeper leagues. I would prefer a league that has some competitive repercussions based on who you're keeping, but I have absolutely nothing against a league such as yours. Continuity can be sweet too.

I didn't mean for it to sound critical, I just understood where nlroma1o was coming from with his initial post.

As to your question at the end: In my league, for added strategy/drafting implications, I would prefer some repercussions based on the keeper. If my friend wants to keep Peyton Manning, that's cool. But if my best player was Odell Beckham, the values there clearly don't match up. So I think something to balance that would be fair. It's a risk/reward thing based on keeping a guy worth a high-pick that might have a down year, versus trying to spot a late-round gem that will be a more worthwhile keeper in terms of the next draft.

This will be my 14th fantasy football season. I have seen a lot of changes. lol

I didn't see it as critical, and I get what you're saying. In my experience though, at some point you have to draw a line in the sand to keep the league fun for the participants. Not everything can always be 100% fair. That's why it's a contest. As I mentioned before, I don't see weighting keepers as keeping a competitive balance. Because if that was the case, then why have them at all? Start fresh each year with no keepers, that would be a much more accurate and simple way to get that result. It just adds an unnecessary layer of complexity.

 

[nlroma1o]

Typically, in PPR I like to get the best WRs possible and worry about RBs later. Thats just my strategy. And if you start off with Gronk. Thats just an added bonus. To me Lacy just isnt a top 5 PPR RB. Forte used to be up there, but now Trestman is gone, no one knows how many passes Forte is going to get.

 

[woolybug25]

Wooly - I didn't mean to offend you by using the word generous. Sorry for using that wording. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the way your keeper league works. Every league is set up their own unique way. You just dont see that type of format very often. Atleast I dont.

My work keeper league doesnt even let you keep players drafted in the first 3 rounds. And the player you decide to keep, you get him 2 rds ahead of where u got him the year prior. So last year, i drafted Jeremy Hill in the 9th rd. I'm keeping him, so this year at our draft, I wont have a pick in the 7th rd. I will just have Jeremy Hill in that spot. In this scenario you kinda get rewarded for doing your homework and drafting players with high future upside.

No worries, no offense taken.

As I said above, I've played in a lot of leagues for many years, and if there is one universal truth to fantasy football... it's that people will literally kill the fun out of it with complexity. For instance, the keeper setup you listed above, it just adds a layer and gives advantages to teams for past performance. Let me ask... does your league also let the teams that finish with worse records draft first? If so, then a) letting people lose the corresponding draft position of their keeper and b) letting losers draft first are completely polar opposite philosophies. One rewards good owners and the other rewards losers, balancing everything out. It just seems like complexity for complexity sakes.

 

[woolybug25]

Typically, in PPR I like to get the best WRs possible and worry about RBs later. Thats just my strategy. And if you start off with Gronk. Thats just an added bonus. To me Lacy just isnt a top 5 PPR RB. Forte used to be up there, but now Trestman is gone, no one knows how many passes Forte is going to get.

I play in a PPR league. How does your strategy work considering the following facts?

In 2014, The difference between the average PPG between the 3rd best RB in my league and the 9th best RB in my league is 9 PPG. There were only 20 RB's that scored over 10 PPG.

In 2014, The difference between the average PPG between the 1st best WR in my league and the 29th best RB in my league is 9 PPG. There were 47 WR's that scored over 10 PPG.

 

[nlroma1o]

No worries, no offense taken.

As I said above, I've played in a lot of leagues for many years, and if there is one universal truth to fantasy football... it's that people will literally kill the fun out of it with complexity. For instance, the keeper setup you listed above, it just adds a layer and gives advantages to teams for past performance. Let me ask... does your league also let the teams that finish with worse records draft first? If so, then a) letting people lose the corresponding draft position of their keeper and b) letting losers draft first are completely polar opposite philosophies. One rewards good owners and the other rewards losers, balancing everything out. It just seems like complexity for complexity sakes.

No, the draft order is randomized. The last place team does not automatically get pick 1.1.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Ours is a non PPR league. We know our 1st 2 rounds draft order prior to the draft and can keep 1 player from our roster, but not the player we kept last year. We don't lose a draft pick for our keeper either. But what is different, that I like, is that we redraw every other round. We draft in person, draw a card, and that's our 1st round pick and we snake back around for round 2. The after every 2 rounds we redraw.

What I hate is no trades, limited drop adds, and we have no IR.

 

[nlroma1o]

I play in a PPR league. How does your strategy work considering the following facts?

In 2014, The difference between the average PPG between the 3rd best RB in my league and the 9th best RB in my league is 9 PPG. There were only 20 RB's that scored over 10 PPG.

In 2014, The difference between the average PPG between the 1st best WR in my league and the 29th best RB in my league is 9 PPG. There were 47 WR's that scored over 10 PPG.

Yes, it is huge if you can get one of the high production receiving RBs. I agree, but thats if you can get one, tho.

This year, in a full 1 pt PPR league, if I dont have pick 1-3, I dont feel confident I'm going to get one of the running backs that catches a ton of pass. If I cant get a Tier 1 RB (Charles, AP, or Bell) at the 4th pick, Im more than likely to grab a WR. Thats just my gut feeling. I feel like the Tier 2 group of PPR RBs (Lacy down to Jeremey Hill) just flat out wont catch as many passes as the first 3 and therefore arent as valuable to me. Id rather take Brown, Julio, DT, Dez or even OBJ. Besides, as I'm sure you're aware, WR are typically safer than RBs when it comes to bust potential. And there's nothing worse than having your 1st rd RB pick bust.

Everyone has their own method to the madness.

 

[woolybug25]

Yes, it is huge if you can get one of the high production receiving RBs. I agree, but thats if you can get one, tho.

This year, in a full 1 pt PPR league, if I dont have pick 1-3, I dont feel confident I'm going to get one of the running backs that catches a ton of pass. If I cant get a Tier 1 RB (Charles, AP, or Bell) at the 4th pick, Im more than likely to grab a WR. Thats just my gut feeling. I feel like the Tier 2 group of PPR RBs (Lacy down to Jeremey Hill) just flat out wont catch as many passes as the first 3 and therefore arent as valuable to me. Id rather take Brown, Julio, DT, Dez or even OBJ. Besides, as I'm sure you're aware, WR are typically safer than RBs when it comes to bust potential. And there's nothing worse than having your 1st rd RB pick bust.

Everyone has their own method to the madness.

Indeed everyone does. I encourage you to look at the numbers I posted above and the do the math with keepers and draft position. You're right that you might not get a tier 1 RB, but if you have two slots to fill, you will end up with two BAD RB's. If there are only 20 some dudes that will score over 10 pionts a game, then by picking two WR's it will leave you with two single digit RB's and two WR's where the PPG variance between them and the alternative (if you went RB) would have only been a few points.

As I mentioned before. There's more than double the amount of solid WRs than RB. Skipping them for the most widely available (and easiest to replace in bye weeks) can create a humongous hole in your lineup.

 

[nlroma1o]

Indeed everyone does. I encourage you to look at the numbers I posted above and the do the math with keepers and draft position. You're right that you might not get a tier 1 RB, but if you have two slots to fill, you will end up with two BAD RB's. If there are only 20 some dudes that will score over 10 pionts a game, then by picking two WR's it will leave you with two single digit RB's and two WR's where the PPG variance between them and the alternative (if you went RB) would have only been a few points.

As I mentioned before. There's more than double the amount of solid WRs than RB. Skipping them for the most widely available (and easiest to replace in bye weeks) can create a humongous hole in your lineup.

I'm curious how the past drafts in your PPR league goes in terms of number of RBs and WRs taken in the 1st and 2nd rds. Because I've been noticing that once the top RBs go, there is usually a huge WR run. And that typically means if u grab 2 top tier WR, there is chance you can get Atleast 1 decent RB.

Lately, I just into my drafts knowing that I'm going to just take the best value picks. I don't go in with a set plan. I just adapt based on how the draft goes. I used to always go in saying I'm gonna go RB then WR. Or RB RB. I try to just go with the flow

 

[Irish Insanity]

What are anyone's top RBs that are a must take before a WR?

 

[woolybug25]

I'm curious how the past drafts in your PPR league goes in terms of number of RBs and WRs taken in the 1st and 2nd rds. Because I've been noticing that once the top RBs go, there is usually a huge WR run. And that typically means if u grab 2 top tier WR, there is chance you can get Atleast 1 decent RB.

Lately, I just into my drafts knowing that I'm going to just take the best value picks. I don't go in with a set plan. I just adapt based on how the draft goes. I used to always go in saying I'm gonna go RB then WR. Or RB RB. I try to just go with the flow

Totally agree with drafting "value", but I look at that more granually than simply picking the best player on the board. Every player has a variance associated with the opportunity cost associated with the pick. No matter what you do, picking any player automatically takes away the opportunity of getting another player. So positions matter. Picking a mid grade #1 WR (say, Andre Johnson) means that you pass on a mid level #1 RB (say, Matt Forte might be that this year). Let's say for instance, that Johnson averages 1.5 PPG during the season more than Forte, you can replace Johnson more easily with a guy that provides you points at the position in the draft. Let's say that his replacement that you pick in the third round averages 3 less PPG less than the Forte pick (let's say Sammy Watkins). Then you are losing 1.5 PPG. But the opportunity cost for not picking Forte means that you also can't get a marginally close replacement. Your next opportunity at a RB in the draft might be a real flyer (let's say, Frank Gore). That difference may be 6 PPG. You also are going to significantly going to lessen your chances at a good 2nd RB, and forget about a sure thing for a flex RB or Bye Week replacement. The end result is a net 4.5 point negative variance in picking Johnson over Forte.

It's just too easy to find points in a PPR at the WR position. But RB production, especially consistently high output, is a rare opportunity. So there is a weighted value there.

To answer your initial question, almost all premier RB's will be kept in my league. There will be a couple that leak out because a team will have two top end RB's. I'm in that position, as I have to drop either Forte or Lacy, but I also won my league last year (that's not a coincidence). That being said, out of the first 12 picks, I would say that 4 of them will be RB's, 4 will be QB's, 3 will be WR's and someone will grab Gronk. Maybe one or two teams will go two rounds without a RB.

Off the top of my head, the one team that waited two rounds before getting a RB finished last in the league last season. He had the last pick in the first round of a snake, and took Andre Johnson/Julio Jones. It looked great at the time of the draft. He never fielded a good RB lineup the rest of the season.

 

[blueNDgold44]

What are anyone's top RBs that are a must take before a WR?

AP, LeVeon, Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Forte and maybe even Shady/Marshawn

 

[woolybug25]

AP, LeVeon, Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Forte and maybe even Shady/Marshawn

I would add Bell (even with the suspension). I would pick a top 3 QB over some depending on who my keeper was as well.

 

[nlroma1o]

I would add Bell (even with the suspension). I would pick a top 3 QB over some depending on who my keeper was as well.

Wooly, he did mention Bell, he just said his first name only LOL.

 

[nlroma1o]

Totally agree with drafting "value", but I look at that more granually than simply picking the best player on the board. Every player has a variance associated with the opportunity cost associated with the pick. No matter what you do, picking any player automatically takes away the opportunity of getting another player. So positions matter. Picking a mid grade #1 WR (say, Andre Johnson) means that you pass on a mid level #1 RB (say, Matt Forte might be that this year). Let's say for instance, that Johnson averages 1.5 PPG during the season more than Forte, you can replace Johnson more easily with a guy that provides you points at the position in the draft. Let's say that his replacement that you pick in the third round averages 3 less PPG less than the Forte pick (let's say Sammy Watkins). Then you are losing 1.5 PPG. But the opportunity cost for not picking Forte means that you also can't get a marginally close replacement. Your next opportunity at a RB in the draft might be a real flyer (let's say, Frank Gore). That difference may be 6 PPG. You also are going to significantly going to lessen your chances at a good 2nd RB, and forget about a sure thing for a flex RB or Bye Week replacement. The end result is a net 4.5 point negative variance in picking Johnson over Forte.

It's just too easy to find points in a PPR at the WR position. But RB production, especially consistently high output, is a rare opportunity. So there is a weighted value there.

To answer your initial question, almost all premier RB's will be kept in my league. There will be a couple that leak out because a team will have two top end RB's. I'm in that position, as I have to drop either Forte or Lacy, but I also won my league last year (that's not a coincidence). That being said, out of the first 12 picks, I would say that 4 of them will be RB's, 4 will be QB's, 3 will be WR's and someone will grab Gronk. Maybe one or two teams will go two rounds without a RB.

Off the top of my head, the one team that waited two rounds before getting a RB finished last in the league last season. He had the last pick in the first round of a snake, and took Andre Johnson/Julio Jones. It looked great at the time of the draft. He never fielded a good RB lineup the rest of the season.

This is a great example of knowing and understanding your league managers habits. If you know that 4 RBS and 4 QBs will most likely be taken, then yes, It makes complete sense to try to get an RB at all cost in the first Rd bc there is going to be a good chance you will be able to get a top 7 WR in the second rd.

In my PPR league, I've discovered that the TOP WR talent flies off the board in the first, so thats why if I can't get one of the top 3 RBs im going to go after ELITE WR talent bc I know that in the second and third there should be solid RBs left over.

We are pretty much on the same page Wooly. We both agree that RBs have immense value if you hit on the top 5. And we both agree that you need to take the draft as it comes at you, and they are ALL different.

 

[woolybug25]

Wooly, he did mention Bell, he just said his first name only LOL.

Ha. I forgot I even posted again in here. It was 2am and I was turnt up.

 

[nlroma1o]

Anyone else think CJ Anderson is a 1st rounder? I know it's a little bullish but now with Kubiak's offense, I think he'll take off. It did wonders for Forsett. Was one of the best RBs after he took over towards the end of last year.

CJ scares the crap out of me. On one hand I can see him exploding, but on the other, Denvers OL is weaker than last year due to trades... I dont know how i feel about them yet. I'd like to see how the OL plays in preseason a little.

 

[nlroma1o]

Ha. I forgot I even posted again in here. It was 2am and I was turnt up.

Hahaha thats what I figured when I saw the time stamp on the post.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Keeper question.

I'm in an 8 team keeper league. Non PPR. Pick #3 in round 1 and #14 in round 2. My 3 best option to keep are Dez Bryant, Big Ben, and Matt Forte. Who would you keep and why?

 

[zelezo vlk]

What do those players cost you to keep? I'd keep Dez and Big Ben. I think Big Ben puts up top 5, maybe top 3 numbers this year because that D is awful. Dez will be Dez and Forte is an aging running back whom I love but just don't trust to be top 3 at his position.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[Irish Insanity]

What do those players cost you to keep? I'd keep Dez and Big Ben. I think Big Ben puts up top 5, maybe top 3 numbers this year because that D is awful. Dez will be Dez and Forte is an aging running back whom I love but just don't trust to be top 3 at his position.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

I choose 1 of the 3 and the cost is nothing. All 8 teams must keep one player from he previous years roster. No pick is forfeited.

 

[nlroma1o]

I chose 1 of the 3 and the cost is nothing. All 8 TE's must keep one player from he previous years roster. No pick is forfeited.

If you have Pick #3 in rd 1, I would keep DEZ and with your #3 pick I would grab one of Charles, AP, Lacy or Bell. Unless those are ALL being kept by someone else.

 

[RDU Irish]

Mine is non-PPR league as well. Changes the dynamic a fair amount. I would be curious to hear thoughts on values in the different format.

I would value a Top 10 RB over a second tier QB and top tier WR. With the #3 pick you should have either a top flight RB or QB available. I would jump on that and put off WR.

I am keeping Forte while dropping DT and A Brown (both of whom I would pick before Dez). Granted we do have 12 teams so filling 2 RB slots is exponentially more difficult than your 8 team league. With DT, AB, Golden Tate and Kelvin Benjamin I was stacked at WR but scrambled at RB - especially during bye weeks for my main guys (didn't help that my 3rd round pick Ray Rice kind of f-ed me over).

 

[RDU Irish]

Murray and Lynch as a top tier RBs? Aren't they in the AP, Forte, Bell, Lacy, Charles group?