2016 Presidential Horse Race

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I'm a bit cynical in my view of politicians that their isn't really much difference once they get into their position - yes, there are exceptions; but would there really be a marked difference between Clinton and Bush presidency? But I do like the horse race and drama the politics causes.

I was pondering this weekend about the possibility of a true Republican convention that mattered. With 16 or so possible candidates, even if the bottom 10 could each garner 2% of the votes per caucus/state; and a different top candidate won a different state or two into Super Tuesday. What would happen?

Say, Santorum wins Iowa; Kasich wins New Hampshire; Graham or Rubio wins S. Carolina; Paul wins Colorado and Nevada; Walker wins North Carolina; Huckabee wins Arkansas; Bush wins Mass; etc. Who starts to drop out? Would the lower level candidates stay in because no one is clearly winning, and if Carly thinks she can get California, does she keep pealing off a percent or two of the votes until she gets her time?

Would it be possible for the convention to occur without a pre-determine coronation? If it ever happens, this would be the year and it would be fun to watch.

However, this will not happen. Reince Priebus and the money guys will make sure someone is crowned to prepare for the fall. I think the RNC will put new rules in place, force states to go all in or split votes as needed to ensure a clear win. It's too bad, because it could be political fun.

 

[GoIrish41]

Yeah, I just read about that in this Politico article:

Newsflash: It’s Going To Be Hillary vs. Jeb - Bill Scher - POLITICO Magazine

Interesting, but I don't think Hillary vs Jeb is inevitable. I think the writer over-estimates how easily Hillary will coast through the Dem primary. I believe she will make it through, but it won't be a total walk in the park. However, the writer turns right around and asserts that Jeb will also coast even though he is a "weak candidate." The article's author feels that the GOP field is too fractured. That may be true, but that doesn't mean that Jeb coasts, IMO. Sure, Jeb has the donor cash and the connections, but that doesn't mean he won't be Romney, Part 2, which is how I see him.

Or worse yet Bush, Part 3. Jeb made a massive blunder in announcing his foreign policy advisors that looked like a reuinion of his brother's team. I do not think he is inevitable, but I do think that five or six candidates clustered at the top of the primary polls gives him a better shot at getting the nomination than the others, mostly because of the donor cash and the connections. So, you all are about to witness history ... I actually agree with Wiz in a political thread.

The flood of every wannabe into the race is what ensures that all we get are the establishment candidates.

It happens so infrequently that it is noteworthy. Candidates like Fiorina (who drove HP into the ground) and Bobby Jindal (who drove his state into the ground), and multiple other Republican candidates are kidding themselves if they think they have a shot at getting the GOP nod. If they truely care about their party, they should bow out and let the big boys compete for the party's nomination. The Dems are going to have a few candidates to try to move the needle on policy issues a little, but unless some earthshattering event happens, everyone knows Hillary is going to be the candidate for the Dems. It is like a circus on the other side. Way too many candidates, and many are just going to peel off votes from viable candidates. Wiz and I may disagree on who those viable candidates are, but we agree on the effect the wannabes will have on the GOP primaries.

 

[wizards8507]

Or worse yet Bush, Part 3. Jeb made a massive blunder in announcing his foreign policy advisors that looked like a reuinion of his brother's team. I do not think he is inevitable, but I do think that five or six candidates clustered at the top of the primary polls gives him a better shot at getting the nomination than the others, mostly because of the donor cash and the connections. So, you all are about to witness history ... I actually agree with Wiz in a political thread.

It happens so infrequently that it is noteworthy. Candidates like Fiorina (who drove HP into the ground) and Bobby Jindal (who drove his state into the ground), and multiple other Republican candidates are kidding themselves if they think they have a shot at getting the GOP nod. If they truely care about their party, they should bow out and let the big boys compete for the party's nomination. The Dems are going to have a few candidates to try to move the needle on policy issues a little, but unless some earthshattering event happens, everyone knows Hillary is going to be the candidate for the Dems. It is like a circus on the other side. Way too many candidates, and many are just going to peel off votes from viable candidates. Wiz and I may disagree on who those viable candidates are, but we agree on the effect the wannabes will have on the GOP primaries.

I think the wannabees hurt the Democrats in the cycle as well. Hillary's strategy has pretty much been "hide" so far. This will at least force her to campaign a little bit.

 

[wizards8507]

Exclusive — Rand Paul Slams Establishment Republicans, Declares Victory Over NSA, Thanks Matt Drudge As Bulk Collection Shuts Down - Breitbart

I know it's a hollow victory, but woot.

Despite a Washington Post article that suggested he’s slipping in Iowa because of this stance against the NSA’s program, Paul points to several recent polls that show he’s in the top tier of GOP candidates—and one of the best Republicans when it comes to facing off directly with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In fact, polls from battleground states ranging from Iowa to Colorado to Pennsylvania to New Hampshire have Paul beating Clinton if the election were held right now.

 

[GoIrish41]

I think the wannabees hurt the Democrats in the cycle as well. Hillary's strategy has pretty much been "hide" so far. This will at least force her to campaign a little bit.

Agreed again ... a little bit. Hopefully enough to push her a little left.

 

[wizards8507]

Hopefully enough to push her a little left.

My hopes exactly.

 

[ND NYC]

That's what frankly pisses me off about all of these pretenders getting in the race, no matter how much I like or dislike their positions. Ben Carson, you're never going to be President of the United States. Neither is Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Graham, Pataki,Trump, Kasich, Cruz and Rubio. Those people need to get out of the way and let the big boys debate without muddying the waters. Otherwise we end up with Jeb by default because nobody else can rise above 15%. It should be Jeb, Paul, and Walker.

FIFY

 

[Sureal]

Funny when I get better information about the election from Irish Envy than mainstream media...

 

[Black Irish]

What is it about Rubio that has everyone thinking he's a lightweight in this race? I know he lost some luster because of his immigration stance, but IMO, he comes across better than most of the rest of the field. He's young, not a middle-aged white guy, not part of the insider elite (like Hillary & Jeb), is a great speaker, isn't a combative hard ass like Cruz, and hails from a major swing state. I'm not saying he's perfect but he's got more going for him than not.

 

[GoIrish41]

What is it about Rubio that has everyone thinking he's a lightweight in this race? I know he lost some luster because of his immigration stance, but IMO, he comes across better than most of the rest of the field. He's young, not a middle-aged white guy, not part of the insider elite (like Hillary & Jeb), is a great speaker, isn't a combative hard ass like Cruz, and hails from a major swing state. I'm not saying he's perfect but he's got more going for him than not.

He is the best they got in my opinion. I do not think it is enough to win it all but he may be their best shot.

 

[pkt77242]

What is it about Rubio that has everyone thinking he's a lightweight in this race? I know he lost some luster because of his immigration stance, but IMO, he comes across better than most of the rest of the field. He's young, not a middle-aged white guy, not part of the insider elite (like Hillary & Jeb), is a great speaker, isn't a combative hard ass like Cruz, and hails from a major swing state. I'm not saying he's perfect but he's got more going for him than not.

He has some issues, this article goes over each issue briefly, but there are better articles out there that go over each issue in more depth.

Marco Rubio's Past Political Vulnerabilities? | Fox News Latino

 

[connor_in]

 

[Black Irish]

He is the best they got in my opinion. I do not think it is enough to win it all but he may be their best shot.

We may agree on something. Now my head hurts. And I swear I saw some porcine creature take flight past my window.

 

[Black Irish]

He has some issues, this article goes over each issue briefly, but there are better articles out there that go over each issue in more depth.

Marco Rubio's Past Political Vulnerabilities? | Fox News Latino

Thanks for posting the article. I'd hate to sound cynical (OK, not really) but this is pretty tame stuff by national political standards. I'd say pretty much every federal level politician has worked with someone who got into legal trouble. Nothing here that screams huge problem. Hillary has all that stuff covered a hundred time over and she won't have much problem with it.

 

[GoIrish41]

We may agree on something. Now my head hurts. And I swear I saw some porcine creature take flight past my window.

I agreed with you and Wiz on the same page. I think the end of days isupon us.

 

[pkt77242]

Thanks for posting the article. I'd hate to sound cynical (OK, not really) but this is pretty tame stuff by national political standards. I'd say pretty much every federal level politician has worked with someone who got into legal trouble. Nothing here that screams huge problem. Hillary has all that stuff covered a hundred time over and she won't have much problem with it.

I would generally agree though it will be interesting to see if anything comes out about him during Jim Greer's trial.

 

[pkt77242]

Polls reflect troubles for Clinton and Bush | OnPolitics

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Polls reflect troubles for Clinton and Bush | OnPolitics

Don't get me all giddy this early in the race.

 

[RDU Irish]

Anyone have thoughts on where the Ron Paul disciples will crop up? Seems half of them think Rand is a sell out and probably stay home or support some wingnut third party. The other half I would think have good potential to fuel a strong grass roots campaign (hopefully not one that turns moderates off).

Might be an interesting exercise to see which states independents/non-registered Republicans can primary/caucus for Rand versus those more restricted to Republicans in good standing.

 

[wizards8507]

Anyone have thoughts on where the Ron Paul disciples will crop up? Seems half of them think Rand is a sell out and probably stay home or support some wingnut third party. The other half I would think have good potential to fuel a strong grass roots campaign (hopefully not one that turns moderates off).

Might be an interesting exercise to see which states independents/non-registered Republicans can primary/caucus for Rand versus those more restricted to Republicans in good standing.

I think you're overestimating when you say "half" think Rand is a sellout. Rand isn't an ideologically pure libertarian but he plays the game better than his father and I think the Paul people support him has the least of many evils.

 

[RDU Irish]

I think you're overestimating when you say "half" think Rand is a sellout. Rand isn't an ideologically pure libertarian but he plays the game better than his father and I think the Paul people support him has the least of many evils.

Aren't the purists the most fanatical and likely not to accept a lesser of evils solution? It think it would be great theater for Rand to say he would make his dad head of the Fed. That would get the purists in line in a hurry!

 

[wizards8507]

Aren't the purists the most fanatical and likely not to accept a lesser of evils solution?

Absolutely. I just think there are too few of them to make much of a difference. I think libertarian-leaning conservatives are more plentiful than libertarian hardliners.

I'll be interested to see what conservative media does. Fox is all-in for Bush (via Karl Rove). The Limbaugh crowd is more traditional conservative and will probably go Walker or Rubio. Beck would probably be Paul's best chance at a conservative media ally.

 

[wizards8507]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5S13zAMc3aQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Rand Paul: I'll cut every last penny of corporate welfare before I'll touch a penny of safety net.

 

[wizards8507]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/0...ting-ron-pauls-supporters.html?_r=0&referrer=

http://theweek.com/articles/558048/rand-paul-just-sacrificed-presidential-campaign-libertarian-principles

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note 4 using Tapatalk.

 

[Black Irish]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5S13zAMc3aQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Rand Paul: I'll cut every last penny of corporate welfare before I'll touch a penny of safety net.

I'm on board with that philosophy. There's fat to cut out of social safety net programs to be sure; it's government run, after all. But hack away at the corporate giveaways first. Of course, Rand will see his donor base shrink up, but that's the price you pay if you really want to take on the big government & big business interests, not just pay lip service to doing so.

 

[phgreek]

I'm on board with that philosophy. There's fat to cut out of social safety net programs to be sure; it's government run, after all. But hack away at the corporate giveaways first. Of course, Rand will see his donor base shrink up, but that's the price you pay if you really want to take on the big government & big business interests, not just pay lip service to doing so.

I agree, but for him to win he'd need significant support from Democrats, Republicans, And Indies. I can't see that kind of non-partisan grassroots mandate now or in the future...ever. So while Rand Paul may be exactly what the Dr. ordered...he can't win with statements like that.

 

[GoIrish41]

Rand Paul: I'll cut every last penny of corporate welfare before I'll touch a penny of safety net.

That is the most sensible thing I have heard from a Republican in quite some time.

 

[wizards8507]

That is the most sensible thing I have heard from a Republican in quite some time.

Join us, GoIrish41. #TakeAStand #StandWithRand

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note 4 using Tapatalk.

 

[phgreek]

Join us, GoIrish41. #TakeAStand #StandWithRand

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note 4 using Tapatalk.

...oh this should be good.

Dirty Hillary, or right of center...

thats like asking if he wants rat poisoning or hemlock

 

[Wild Bill]

Absolutely. I just think there are too few of them to make much of a difference. I think libertarian-leaning conservatives are more plentiful than libertarian hardliners.

I'll be interested to see what conservative media does. Fox is all-in for Bush (via Karl Rove). The Limbaugh crowd is more traditional conservative and will probably go Walker or Rubio. Beck would probably be Paul's best chance at a conservative media ally.

O'Reilly is just brutal to Rand. He's either hammering him or completely dismissing him as a legitimate candidate. Like it or not, O'Reilly has a huge audience and Rand could use their support to make a run. I don't know why Rand wouldn't make an appearance on O'Reilly's show to better explain his position, especially with respect to foreign policy. I think he'd be able to shut Billo up for the next year and his audience will see that he has the potential to be a great candidate.