NDgradstudent
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Tracking violent crime from the 60's to present day is bound to be fruitless because there was this tiny little shift in our economy during that period (the move from being an expanding industrial economy that put a premium on unskilled labor to being an information based economy that put a premium on education). Crime has fallen pretty dramatically in the last 20 years despite relatively little economic disruption in that period- is there a matching rise in the rate of 2 parent households?
Anyway, literally nobody is saying that the downfall of the traditional family structure has not exacerbated the problem (for poor Americans in general, not just blacks). However, unless you come with solutions, that's not a very helpful line of analysis. To run with RhodeIrish's analogy, it's like a doctor looking at a patient and saying, "well his problem is that he got his ass kicked" and walking away.
The out-of-wedlock birth rate has risen pretty consistently, every year since the early 1960s, for every race. So you are right that the relative drop in crime is not attributable to that. It is probably partially attributable to the increase in incarceration. I guess the question is whether poverty, racism, etc., cause out of wedlock births, or the other way around. It does occur to me that having a child out of wedlock is still a choice, however much pressure there is to have such a child, whatever conditions there are, etc. I certainly think it is preferable to have a child out of wedlock than to have an abortion (another theory about the crime drop, by the way, and one which I doubt but which many liberals accept and cite as a reason for legal abortion).
There are many countries with far more generous welfare states than ours which still have high out of wedlock birth rates but where (liberals will argue) the children are not harmed. These countries tend to be far smaller and more ethnically and socioeconomically homogenous than America. Furthermore, what constitutes harm is a relative thing because even the countries commonly cited (usually Scandinavian) have seen a rise in the out of wedlock birth rate in the past several decades.
I of course agree the issue is complicated. We disagree about the primary driver. For me, the key historical fact continues to be that prior to the 1960s, black crime was lower, even as poverty, segregation, racism, etc., were higher. Significantly, the number of blacks being raised in two parent families was also much higher prior to the 1960s than today. Something was different then, but it was not more welfare, or racial tolerance, or funding for largely or entirely black public schools. I do not mean to romanticize the past, as conservatives are often accused of doing, but only to emphasize that in my view we have chosen the wrong future in many ways.
I should also add that I am not saying that blacks are uniquely "irresponsible" by having kids out of wedlock. Most groups have seen a major increase in illegitimacy, but it has been particularly high among blacks. It has also affected whites, especially poorer whites.