This whole college thing is fascinating to watch play out. Politics aside, let's look at the facts of the situation (not sure if these were covered last night or not since I didn't watch, but based on news this morning, I get the message).
According to the collegeboard latest data on public institutions (2012 year, second and third quartile represent middle class $30K - $106K in income, fourth quartile is $106K+)
1 - Net yearly tuition and fees for two year college for two lowest income quartiles: $0
2 - Net yearly tuition and fees for four year college for two lowest income quartiles: $0 for lowest quartile, $2,325 for second quartile
3 - Yearly American Opportunity Tax Credit for bottom two quartiles (fully paid regardless if you paid tax or not) - $2,500
4 - Net Full cost of attendance for two year college for two lowest income quartiles: $9,500 per year
5 - Net Full cost of attendance for two year college for two highest income quartiles: $13,500 per year
6 - Net Full cost of attendance for four year college for two lowest income quartiles: $13,800 per year
7 - Net Full cost of attendance for four year college for two highest income quartiles: $21,500 per year
8 - Total Grants & aid for two year college by quartile:
1 - $5,700 + $2,500 tax credit
2 - $3,200 + $2,500 tax credit
3 - $1,000 & maybe tax a tax credit
4 - $800 & most likely no tax credit
9 - Total Grants & aid for four year college by quartile:
1 - $10,000 + $2,500 tax credit
2 - $6,750 + $2,500 tax credit
3 - $3,000 & maybe tax a tax credit
4 - $2,500 & most likely no tax credit
10 - According to the GAO, the median income of a 529 college savings plan owner is $145,000 and the tax break associated with the account distributions is estimated to be $3,000 (not clear in the data if that is based off ordinary rates or capital gain rates).
What the data tells me:
- After figuring in tax credits paid, the bottom two quartiles are paying negative tuition for both two year and four year schools (tuition covered by grants, tax credit makes it negative). The same could be true for the third quartile for two year schools, depending on filing status and other tax information and is most likely not the case for the highest quartile for either two or four year schools.
- Room and board is not fully covered by grants for any quartile, though the first and second quartile do receive some grants to cover these expenses. With that said, one could argue that a large portion of these expenses are more "living expenses" that would be incurred whether enrolled or not (food, shelter, etc). The cost difference would depend heavily on current living conditions and represent a portion of the opportunity cost of going to school. These costs, in theory, should be paid off if you believe you will attain better employment status due to the degree and could be offset by living at home and "staying local".
- At four year schools, the bottom quartiles are getting anywhere from 2X to 4X the amount of aid
I have two point of contention here:
- What are we getting with this free tuition proposal at two year schools? The bottom two quartiles don't pay tuition as it is and it's hard to decipher if the grants they receive to offset tuition would continue to be paid to offset room and board in the future. My hunch is no, it would not continue, at least not in full. Thus, what's the point?
- Removing the 529 tax deduction is beyond a really bad idea. Yes, it is true that the median income of those utilizing a 529 plan is in the top quartile of income ($145K). But, the distribution below the median tells an interesting story. Over 60% of the bottom 50% (or 30% of the total if you prefer) make less than $100K. Depending on filing status, these people may or may not be eligible for tax credits (the same tax credits the proposal wishes to expand). Plus, the median tax benefit is only $3,000, which when added to total grant and taxes above, still means the bottom two quartiles are getting significantly more assistance. There is a real chance here that people in the $80K-$100K range will get squeezed out of the 529 tax break while not receiving the additional tax credit.
More over, the median retirement asset balance for a 529 plan owner is just north of $200K. That tells me that top 1% really aren't using 529 plans. Trusts are the more preferred approach and will continue to be with or without the 529 tax change.
We know we have a savings problem in this country and 529 plans provide people the opportunity to save for college. Considering the average retirement balance is only $200K among 529 account owners, the super wealthy are not getting the break here. It is the upper middle class group that is getting the break, which is helping to offset the higher net COA they pay compared to the bottom quartiles. Why would anyone think this is a good idea to reduce the incentives for saving for college for people clearly not swimming in excess wealth? Sure, you will have people still save for college with or without the plans. But my hunch is that they would move out of 529 age based plans into easy to understand and obtain vehicles like CD's, which will only lower their overall return and create additional savings shortfall. Just a really dumb idea IMO.