2016 Presidential Horse Race

[DomeX2 eNVy]

This thread is to have a snap shot of who is running for president; and what and how they are doing. I'll update this OP as things change so people have easy reference to who's in and who's out.

Donald Trump Republican nominee - Mike Pence (Gov IN) as VP partner
Clinton presumptive Democratic nominee
Gary Johnson (former R- Gov of New Mexico) wins Libertarian nomination; William Weld (former R- Gov of Massachusetts) picked as Vice Presidential running mate

Upcoming Scheduled Debates & things

July 18-21, 2016
Republican National Convention - Cleveland, Ohio

July 25-28, 2016
Democratic National Convention - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

September 26, 2016 (President Debate)
October 4, 2016 (Vice President Debate)
October 9, 2016 (President Debate)
October 19, 2016 (President Debate)

Primary and Caucuses (delegates available)
June 14, 2016
Washington D.C. (D: 20)

Recent Results

Clinton presumptive D nominee


Announced

Republican:
Donald Trump (King of Hair and Hubris - real estate mogul/casino bankrupter) https://www.donaldjtrump.com/

Democrat:
Hillary Clinton (former Sec. of State; former Sen - NY) https://www.hillaryclinton.com/
Bernie Sanders (I) (Sen - VT) https://berniesanders.com/


Independent / 3rd party
Dr. Jill Stein (Green) (MA) Jill Stein for President
Gary Johnson (former Gov - NM) https://www.garyjohnson2016.com/



Dropped Out
Jeb Bush (former Gov - FL) (R)
Ben Carson (neurosurgeon) (R)
Lincoln Chafee (former Republican and Independent Sen and Gov - RI) (D)
Chris Christie (Gov - NJ) (R)
Ted Cruz (Sen - TX) (R)
Mark Everson (former IRS commisioner MS) (R)
Carly Fiorina (former CEO of Hewlett-Packard) (R)
Jim Gilmore (former Gov VA) (R)
Mike Huckabee (former Gov - AR) (R)
Bobby Jindal (Gov - LA) (R)
John Kasich (Gov - OH) (R)
Lawrence Lessig (Harvard Law School Professor) (D)
Martin O'Malley (former Gov - MD) (D)
George Pataki (former Gov - NY) (R)
Randall "Rand" Paul (Sen - KY) (R)
Rick Perry (Gov - TX) (R)
Marco Rubio (Sen - FL) (R)
Rick Santorum (former Sen - PA) (R)
Scott Walker (Gov - WI) (R)
Jim Webb (former Sen - VA) (D) *may run as an Independent

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I don't really have a party identity, but find the presidential politics and races fascinating. With no incumbent, it should be fun to watch both sides put on a show.

Early interest shows there are a lot of Republicans looking to further their career. The Democrats may be ceding the nomination to Hillary, but my instinct says she will not pull it off.

Some insiders I hear from say to watch out for Brian Sandoval. He hasn't been listed on any sites I've seen, but I've added him here as he could be a non-polarizing figure that would play well to independents - but could he get through the far right states?
I feel the Dems need an outsider as Biden and Cliton have a lot of baggage in too many people's opinions. O'Malley could be a good option, but lacks name recognition.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think I already need to shower just thinking about the next races...

 

[ickythump1225]

Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden have no shot of being the next president. President Obama has been one of the most unpopular presidents in history there is no way his VP is going to use that as a spring board to the big office.

The thought of Hillary vs. Jeb gives me Ebola.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I would love to see Clinton vs Bush just so a third party actually forms as a result.

I'd love to see Warren vs Paul though. Hell I'd love them on the same ticket.

John Kasich will almost certainly run, and I think he'd be a formidable candidate. I'm not the biggest fan of his, but I don't really dislike him either. He has been good for Ohio, all things considered. A Paul/Kasich ticket would be something else.

 

[GoldenDome]

Vermin Supreme

 

[GATTACA!]

Elizabeth Warren in the "top tier" is a joke right??

Pretty uninspiring group of candidates on both sides. Id like to see Kasich for all the reasons Buster mentioned.

My dark horse would be Bobby Jindal. Just comes off as pretty down to earth. Very intelligent and can talk. Would bring some youth and diversity to the party.

I could see a Jindal/Haley ticket. Give the female VP idea another try after McCain botched it so badly. Could be necessary too if Hillary is indeed the Dems candidate.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Why isn't Warren in the top tier? She is the only alternative to Clinton right now.

 

[wizards8507]

I'd love to see Warren vs Paul though. Hell I'd love them on the same ticket.

How would the Socialist and the Libertarian end up on the same ticket?

#StandWithRand

 

[ohara831]

I think Gov. Kasich is one of the Republican front runners already. He got a ton of publicity on election night and the talking heads talked about him quite a bit. And Ohio likes him and he can deliver the state.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm most interested in the "semifinals" of the Republican primary. I think whichever faction can narrow down the field to one front runner will be able to pull ahead and win. The Karl Rove establishment wing will be choosing between Bush, Christie, Perry, and possibly Romney. The hybrid libertarian / tea party wing will be choosing between Rand and Cruz. Rubio falls somewhere in between. If either side can unite behind one guy, they might be able to ride infighting among the other side to victory.

Bush - I can't imagine there's any appetite in the country (including the GOP primary voters) for another Bush candidate. I know every man is his own man and shouldn't be pinned to his family... but still.

Romney - Unfortunately, "rich people don't care about regular people" is an effective political argument in 2014 America, and I don't see any reason why Romney would be able to overcome it this time when he couldn't last time. "Out of touch" should be an effective campaign point in the Republicans' favor this cycle (how often does that happen?) if they can paint the Clintons as America's "royal family." A Romney candidacy torpedoes that strategy.

Christie - I feel like there are a number of skeletons in his closet along the lines of #Bridgegate that haven't come out yet. He also faces the Romneyesque challenge of being a moderate to liberal Republican in a blue state. That's a lose-lose scenario, since he's not conservative enough to win the primary and the Republicans aren't winning any states east of Pennsylvania anyways, so you don't gain anything in the general election. Also, the optics of being a boisterous overweight Sicilian guy from Newark plays right into the hands of the late night comedians.

Perry - Plays well in Texas, not so much in the rest of the country. I think the electorate is still hungover from eight years of "cowboy conservatism." I also have serious doubts about his ability to perform in debates. Even before the "oops" moment of 2011, he hadn't been performing well in that arena.

Rubio - Probably the "safest" choice and the one who has the most crossover appeal between GOP establishment types and the party base. "Cuban guy from Florida" ticks the Republicans' target demo, but Rubio has irritated a number of "hard line" conservatives with some fairly soft immigration reform legislation.

Cruz - Probably the candidate most hated by the media. I'm not sure why he gets torched by the talking heads so much more than Rand, but he does. I don't think it's fair at all, but the label of "extremist" has stuck, and it would take a hell of a PR effort to overcome that.

Paul - His brand of libertarian conservatism has the most crossover appeal to general election voters who are uncomfortable with the GOP's stance on drugs and gay marriage. During the primaries, Paul should be able to effectively punt on those issues by pleading "federalism" and deferring to the states. His bigger challenge in the primary will be on national defense, where he'll be painted as a Ron Paul isolationist. The declining national appetite for interventionism should help him there, but I don't know if it will be enough to win over the red-blooded national defense conservatives who love them some war.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/o...ans-need-now.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&_r=1

 

[wizards8507]

I'd love a similar breakdown of the Democratic field. I have no idea how the base views the candidates. My outsider's perspective is that Hillary is a fait accompli, but I'm sure it's not that simple.

 

[Sureal]

Stand with Rand dude... I've been waiting for a candidate like this for a long time. Libertarian leaning guy with a common sense approach about foreign policy.

 

[GowerND11]

Stand with Rand dude... I've been waiting for a candidate like this for a long time. Libertarian leaning guy with a common sense approach about foreign policy.

Exactly. Only problem I see is the Republican party makes these candidates pander to the conservative elites to raise the necessary funds...

 

[pumpdog20]

Conservative elites love them some Cruz. If Rubio holds the line on his immigration stance, and he can get through the primary, he'll be tough to beat.

 

[wizards8507]

Exactly. Only problem I see is the Republican party makes these candidates pander to the conservative elites to raise the necessary funds...

Rand seems to be going the Silicon Valley route. There's plenty of money out there and it isn't from the "conservative elite." He could do very well fundraising with the tech/privacy crowd. He also has instant credibility with college students, which is extremely valuable from a ground game (if not fundraising) perspective.

 

[GowerND11]

Rand seems to be going the Silicon Valley route. There's plenty of money out there and it isn't from the "conservative elite." He could do very well fundraising with the tech/privacy crowd. He also has instant credibility with college students, which is extremely valuable from a ground game (if not fundraising) perspective.

I agree. I really like Rand, and surely hope he can get enough funding through that route. It would be nice, since he does have the credibility, to see the college aged voters to come out en masse to support him.

 

[Booslum31]

This thread has the potential to top "Rumored Violations" as there are so many directions these races can go. Of course I'm assuming we all care as much about our next Pres as we do about who was going to get re-instated.

 

[MJ12666]

I don't see Paul, Cruz or Rubio really having much of a chance to get through the primary. None of these individuals have the necessary executive experience, and given the disaster that Obama has been from an administrative point of view, it is very likely that the Republican nominee will be a sitting governor, and unless they totally screw-up it will probably be either Kasich, Walker or Perry.

 

[wizards8507]

I don't see Paul, Cruz or Rubio really having much of a chance to get through the primary. None of these individuals have the necessary executive experience, and given the disaster that Obama has been from an administrative point of view, it is very likely that the Republican nominee will be a sitting governor, and unless they totally screw-up it will probably be either Kasich, Walker or Perry.

I think "exciting candidate" will trump "executive experience." People like Karl Rove will say "we need to nominate a governor to have a chance of winning," and the base will respond "we listened to you with Mittens and he shit the bed. No thanks."

 

[RDU Irish]

Haven't seen much of Kasich, can't give an opinion there. As much as I like Walker, I don't think he has the gravitas and Perry is a tool. If Romney couldn't beat a half term Senator with zero experience then I really don't see him getting a second chance, especially with Obamacare. Dems could essentially throw that anchor around Romney's neck and laugh all the way to the Oval Office.

I will hold out hope that if Rand Paul doesn't win the nomination, he runs independent. It would be nice to actually vote FOR somebody this cycle. Cruz has been too marginalized to be taken seriously and I really think Ron Paul's rabid followers could be corralled to pull some grass roots magic for Rand if those nuts could swallow their pride for a minute and accept a less than "perfect" candidate.

 

[wizards8507]

Haven't seen much of Kasich, can't give an opinion there. As much as I like Walker, I don't think he has the gravitas and Perry is a tool. If Romney couldn't beat a half term Senator with zero experience then I really don't see him getting a second chance, especially with Obamacare. Dems could essentially throw that anchor around Romney's neck and laugh all the way to the Oval Office.

I will hold out hope that if Rand Paul doesn't win the nomination, he runs independent. It would be nice to actually vote FOR somebody this cycle. Cruz has been too marginalized to be taken seriously and I really think Ron Paul's rabid followers could be corralled to pull some grass roots magic for Rand if those nuts could swallow their pride for a minute and accept a less than "perfect" candidate.

Agree with everything. Some of the Ron Paul people are pretty far out there. I've even heard Rand Paul referred to as a "neocon" SMH.

 

[RDU Irish]

Agree with everything. Some of the Ron Paul people are pretty far out there. I've even heard Rand Paul referred to as a "neocon" SMH.

That attitude keeps them from making any progress on what should be their primary issue - Federalism. Push both parties for promoters smaller government and your 10% gets pretty influential, pretty fast.

 

[connor_in]

I'm most interested in the "semifinals" of the Republican primary. I think whichever faction can narrow down the field to one front runner will be able to pull ahead and win. The Karl Rove establishment wing will be choosing between Bush, Christie, Perry, and possibly Romney. The hybrid libertarian / tea party wing will be choosing between Rand and Cruz. Rubio falls somewhere in between. If either side can unite behind one guy, they might be able to ride infighting among the other side to victory.

Bush - I can't imagine there's any appetite in the country (including the GOP primary voters) for another Bush candidate. I know every man is his own man and shouldn't be pinned to his family... but still.

Romney - Unfortunately, "rich people don't care about regular people" is an effective political argument in 2014 America, and I don't see any reason why Romney would be able to overcome it this time when he couldn't last time. "Out of touch" should be an effective campaign point in the Republicans' favor this cycle (how often does that happen?) if they can paint the Clintons as America's "royal family." A Romney candidacy torpedoes that strategy.

Christie - I feel like there are a number of skeletons in his closet along the lines of #Bridgegate that haven't come out yet. He also faces the Romneyesque challenge of being a moderate to liberal Republican in a blue state. That's a lose-lose scenario, since he's not conservative enough to win the primary and the Republicans aren't winning any states east of Pennsylvania anyways, so you don't gain anything in the general election. Also, the optics of being a boisterous overweight Sicilian guy from Newark plays right into the hands of the late night comedians.

Perry - Plays well in Texas, not so much in the rest of the country. I think the electorate is still hungover from eight years of "cowboy conservatism." I also have serious doubts about his ability to perform in debates. Even before the "oops" moment of 2011, he hadn't been performing well in that arena.

Rubio - Probably the "safest" choice and the one who has the most crossover appeal between GOP establishment types and the party base. "Cuban guy from Florida" ticks the Republicans' target demo, but Rubio has irritated a number of "hard line" conservatives with some fairly soft immigration reform legislation.

Cruz - Probably the candidate most hated by the media. I'm not sure why he gets torched by the talking heads so much more than Rand, but he does. I don't think it's fair at all, but the label of "extremist" has stuck, and it would take a hell of a PR effort to overcome that.

Paul - His brand of libertarian conservatism has the most crossover appeal to general election voters who are uncomfortable with the GOP's stance on drugs and gay marriage. During the primaries, Paul should be able to effectively punt on those issues by pleading "federalism" and deferring to the states. His bigger challenge in the primary will be on national defense, where he'll be painted as a Ron Paul isolationist. The declining national appetite for interventionism should help him there, but I don't know if it will be enough to win over the red-blooded national defense conservatives who love them some war.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/o...ans-need-now.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&_r=1

I, too, would like to see a Democrat poster do this for a chunk of the more likely Democrat candidates, please.

 

[connor_in]

Does anyone truly think Biden is a viable candidate? That is outside of (God forbid)anything happening to Obama and Biden getting the sympathy/continuation of government vote so close after taking over.

 

[wizards8507]

Does anyone truly think Biden is a viable candidate?

I hope so. The only thing that could get the late night comedians on the side of the GOP would be a Biden nomination.

 

[ACamp1900]

I hope so .

I had the same thought, if you want a GOP member in the White House, then Biden winning the Dem nomination may be one of the few things that can make that happen.

 

[Booslum31]

Haven't seen much of Kasich, can't give an opinion there. As much as I like Walker, I don't think he has the gravitas and Perry is a tool. If Romney couldn't beat a half term Senator with zero experience then I really don't see him getting a second chance, especially with Obamacare. Dems could essentially throw that anchor around Romney's neck and laugh all the way to the Oval Office.

I will hold out hope that if Rand Paul doesn't win the nomination, he runs independent. It would be nice to actually vote FOR somebody this cycle. Cruz has been too marginalized to be taken seriously and I really think Ron Paul's rabid followers could be corralled to pull some grass roots magic for Rand if those nuts could swallow their pride for a minute and accept a less than "perfect" candidate.

I think Kasich could sneak in there though I'm not sure he wants to jump in. I'd like to see him and Haley on the ticket. He carried Ohio with 64% of the vote but it was a weak opponent and a low voter turnout, but he has executive experience and has done well for OH. It's too bad for Jeb that his brother got there first because i think he would be much more effective. The Dems would attach him to his brother pretty easily. Like what Walker has done but would be a lightning rod and still reminds me of my little brother.

 

[GATTACA!]

Why isn't Warren in the top tier? She is the only alternative to Clinton right now.

Your'e right she could probably boost Native American turnout.......

I don't see Paul, Cruz or Rubio really having much of a chance to get through the primary. None of these individuals have the necessary executive experience, and given the disaster that Obama has been from an administrative point of view, it is very likely that the Republican nominee will be a sitting governor, and unless they totally screw-up it will probably be either Kasich, Walker or Perry.

No way he's damaged goods. A moderately well spoken candidate would talk circles around Perry. There also will be some carry over resentment from Bush Jr as another good ole Texas boy.

 

[IrishLax]

Warner v. Rand Paul would be my best case scenario for our country. I think both guys are pretty darn pragmatic and results driven individuals, and are also intelligent guys. Paul is a bit... out there... on some things, but Warner is incredibly moderate and has demonstrated the ability to work across party lines on many occasions at many levels of government.

I think Hillary would be a disaster, as would a number of Republican candidates. Everyone expects Hillary to just be crowned the Democratic nominee and that she'll win easily on account of the female vote. I think she's way too polarizing to get anything done while in power.