Does 1 Loss End ND's Playoff Hopes?

[ACamp1900]

I don't get this convo around the SEC getting two teams in. Send the champ and call it a day. Why give the SEC runner up another shot at a natty if they couldn't win their conference? With the selection committee, I think they will want a broader representation.

It most likely won't even be 'not winning their conference' it will most likely be, why give them another shot when they couldn't even win their own division within their conference... it's total bunk imo.

 

[RDU Irish]

So if LSU is within 2 TDs do they move UP in the rankings?

I think Kentucky has a better shot against Miss State than SoCar does against Auburn. More a testament to my lack of respect for the Gamecocks and overrating of MSU than an endorsement of Kentucky. By better chance I mean, they are more likely to be within two scores entering the second half.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

So looking at this week's matchups, the best somewhat realistic scenario we can hope for this week would be LSU beating Ole Miss at home and/or South Carolina Beating Auburn on the road.

I still think Michigan is a pretty athletic team and i wouldn't be too upset if they got it together long enough to end any discussion of MSU getting in.

so those are the three games i'm going to keep an eye on. Anything else?

It's been said that common opponents are a factor. Since ND and MSU both played Purdue to about the same score (ND's win was actually better by points and MSU had to hold on at the end) then a close Michigan loss to MSU probably helps ND in a significant way - since the Irish whipped UM 31-0.

 

[HoosierMP33]

It's been said that common opponents are a factor. Since ND and MSU both played Purdue to about the same score (ND's win was actually better by points and MSU had to hold on at the end) then a close Michigan loss to MSU probably helps ND in a significant way - since the Irish whipped UM 31-0.

Thanks for adding to my concern of Oregon sneaking in ahead of us because of how we played Stanford and if they end up playing either USC or Arizona St for PAC-12 title and blow these teams out....lol

 

[wizards8507]

I don't get this convo around the SEC getting two teams in. Send the champ and call it a day.

Because chances are, the two best SEC teams won't even meet in the championship game so the "other guy" (SEC West #2) never got the opportunity to win the conference. The four best teams in the country should be in the playoff. You shouldn't exclude the 2nd or 3rd best team just because they had the misfortune of playing in the same division as the 1st best.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Because chances are, the two best SEC teams won't even meet in the championship game so the "other guy" (SEC West #2) never got the opportunity to win the conference. The four best teams in the country should be in the playoff. You shouldn't exclude the 2nd or 3rd best team just because they had the misfortune of playing in the same division as the 1st best.

SEC West#2 presumably lost a game to SEC West#1 in that scenario, correct? #2 had the opportunity to win the conference, but couldn't because they lost to the better team.

 

[clashmore_jon]

Thanks for adding to my concern of Oregon sneaking in ahead of us because of how we played Stanford and if they end up playing either USC or Arizona St for PAC-12 title and blow these teams out....lol

yeah, but the Oregon loss to Arizona is fairly damaging. and it won't matter if Oregon blows out U$C or ASU as long as we do the same (though i think ASU might be another tough matchup for us). So in that sense at least we have a little control.

 

[ACamp1900]

If you can't manage to win your little six team division you shouldn't be able to lay claim to 'national champion'... just me.

 

[wizards8507]

SEC West#2 presumably lost a game to SEC West#1 in that scenario, correct? #2 had the opportunity to win the conference, but couldn't because they lost to the better team.

Using that logic, Notre Dame had the opportunity to beat FSU, but couldn't because they lost to the better team. So if FSU is in the playoff, Notre Dame shouldn't be because they already "had their chance."

Head-to-head results should matter when determining who makes the playoff, but shouldn't eliminate one team who otherwise deserves it because they lost to another team who also deserves it.

 

[RDU Irish]

West #2 had their chance to win the conference when they played the eventual West #1. Gimme a break. And the process is meant to determine the best team, not the fourth best. If the SEC has the best four teams then we will find out who the best one is and they have to defend against the best other conferences have to offer.

That sh!t must be contagious in Bristol. You are essentially lobbying for a four SEC team playoff. How will we ever know if they are the best if they don't have to play anyone worth a sh!t out of conference?

 

[wizards8507]

That sh!t must be contagious in Bristol. You are essentially lobbying for a four SEC team playoff. How will we ever know if they are the best if they don't have to play anyone worth a sh!t out of conference?

I'll try not to get agitated because you might honestly be misunderstanding what I'm saying.

I'm am NOT saying: The two best teams are in the SEC West so two SEC West teams should be in the playoff.

I AM saying: IF we arrive at the end of the season and the two best teams are in the SEC West, I don't think the fact that one team lost the division should be enough to keep them out.

I'd say the same thing if we get to the end and the two best teams look like Ohio State and Michigan State or Oregon and Arizona or FSU and Duke.

 

[RDU Irish]

so Wiz, what happens when Georgia loses to Auburn but then wins the championship game. Their only win against a ranked opponent would be the SEC championship game and let's say they lay a second loss on the West winner making an armful of SEC teams with two losses and none any better than that. You still put two or three of them in there versus a one loss ND, one loss FSU, 2 loss Pac champ, 1 or two loss Big12 and one loss Big Ten?

 

[BobbyMac]

So looking at this week's matchups, the best somewhat realistic scenario we can hope for this week would be LSU beating Ole Miss at home and/or South Carolina Beating Auburn on the road.

I still think Michigan is a pretty athletic team and i wouldn't be too upset if they got it together long enough to end any discussion of MSU getting in.

so those are the three games i'm going to keep an eye on. Anything else?

Kentucky beats Miss St in Lexington

Tennessee beats Alabama in Knoxville

Cal beats Oregon in Berkely

Texas Tech beats TCU in Fort Worth

Texas beats K State in Manhattan

Penn St beats Ohio State in Happy Valley

ASU beats Washington in Seattle

Washington St beats Arizona in Pullman

Rutgers beats Nebraska in Lincoln

SC beats Utah in Salt Lake

Illinois beats Minnesota in Champaign.

Stanford beats Oregon St in Palo Alto

Syracuse beats Clemson in Death Valley

UNC beats UVa in Charlottesville

Navy beats San Jose St in Annapolis

and

Rice beats N Tex St in Houston


Along with your picks... that would be a good weekend.

.

 

[phork]

Bottom line, apparently from the powers that be, win the next 5 and play for it all.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Using that logic, Notre Dame had the opportunity to beat FSU, but couldn't because they lost to the better team. So if FSU is in the playoff, Notre Dame shouldn't be because they already "had their chance."

Head-to-head results should matter when determining who makes the playoff, but shouldn't eliminate one team who otherwise deserves it because they lost to another team who also deserves it.

We weren't talking about Notre Dame. You said:

Because chances are, the two best SEC teams won't even meet in the championship game so the "other guy" (SEC West #2) never got the opportunity to win the conference.

Team #2 had the opportunity to win the SEC, but they failed to do so. I'm not against two SEC teams in the playoff if they had played each other as close as two teams can. I think that ND played well enough to prove that they deserve another shot. Will Team #2 play that well against Team #1? That is yet to be seen.

 

[RDU Irish]

Can't wait for two loss Georgia to beat the SEC West god.

 

[wizards8507]

so Wiz, what happens when Georgia loses to Auburn but then wins the championship game. Their only win against a ranked opponent would be the SEC championship game and let's say they lay a second loss on the West winner making an armful of SEC teams with two losses and none any better than that. You still put two or three of them in there versus a one loss ND, one loss FSU, 2 loss Pac champ, 1 or two loss Big12 and one loss Big Ten?

In that scenario, I put zero SEC teams in the playoff. I'd say ND, FSU, and two of PAC/B1G/Big12.

Team #2 had the opportunity to win the SEC, but they failed to do so. I'm not against two SEC teams in the playoff if they had played each other as close as two teams can. I think that ND played well enough to prove that they deserve another shot. Will Team #2 play that well against Team #1? That is yet to be seen.

Obviously this is all "yet to be seen," that's my entire point. I think we should let the games play out and THEN decide who are the top 4 rather than establish hard rules/principles like "THOU SHALT NOT VOTE FOR TWO TEAMS IN THE SAME DIVISION".

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

yeah, but the Oregon loss to Arizona is fairly damaging. and it won't matter if Oregon blows out U$C or ASU as long as we do the same (though i think ASU might be another tough matchup for us). So in that sense at least we have a little control.

Unfortunately, I don't see how one-loss Oregon is left out in favor of one-loss Notre Dame. They arguably have a tougher overall schedule, were more highly regarded coming into the season, will have an extra win in the conference championship, and will have won a conference widely regarded as the second/third best in the country.

In fact, I think a one-loss Big 12 team also gets in ahead of Notre Dame.

 

[SoDakDomer]

Kind of off the current topic, but the worst thing that could happen to us down the road beside a loss would be for FSU to lose to one of these medicore ACC teams on their schedule. If we win out and FSU ends up losing to a crap team how bad does that hurt our chances of getting in with one loss? Lets assume both ASU and USC stay in the rankings.

 

[IRISH in MT]

I updated the front page with the new USA Today/Coach's rankings and who the toughest games remaining are for the Unbeaten and 1 Loss teams we are competing with.

 

[wizards8507]

Kind of off the current topic, but the worst thing that could happen to us down the road beside a loss would be for FSU to lose to one of these medicore ACC teams on their schedule. If we win out and FSU ends up losing to a crap team how bad does that hurt our chances of getting in with one loss? Lets assume both ASU and USC stay in the rankings.

A bad FSU loss would be the worst case scenario. However, TWO FSU losses could actually help us. Yes, it hurts us from a "resume" perspective, but it would probably eliminate the ACC champion from playoff contention. Losing to an undefeated FSU might help us lay claim to the "best one-loss team", but it would be even easier for us to get in if there were simply LESS one-loss teams. An "open slot" in the 4 is more valuable than the impact of a loss or two on our SOS.

 

[RDU Irish]

I guess to get back on topic -

ND - win and you are in

I don't see Big10, Big 12 or even Pac12 taking a spot from us. Our remaining schedule is strong enough to ensure that. The $$$$ factor has been mentioned but definitely favors us getting in if we win out.

FSU
SEC#1
ND
Best resume of Pac12, Big 12, SEC #2, Big10

 

[IRISH in MT]

Midnight will ring soon for the Mississippi schools. Need FSU to win out. Need Bama, Auburn, and Oregon to all lose once more for sure. Could Michigan State lose to dUMb this weekend?! I might actually chear for the skunkbears this weekend... Georgia will lose to Auburn or in the SEC Chipper. TCU and K State will both lose again. Ohio State should lose 1 more.

I am scratching my head at Michigan State and Oregon being ranked ahead of us. Last I checked, Oregon lost to #15 while we got robbed against #2. Michigan State only has 2 losses in 1.5 years and we were one of them.

 

[wizards8507]

I am scratching my head at Michigan State and Oregon being ranked ahead of us. Last I checked, Oregon lost to #15 while we got robbed against #2. Michigan State only has 2 losses in 1.5 years and we were one of them.

If we don't get in, this is the reason. We'll likely end the year with the "best loss" of any contender, but we're lacking in the "best win" category. Stanford is going in the wrong direction for a "signature win" opponent, and our margins of victory against North Carolina, Purdue, and Syracuse were just okay.

 

[IRISH in MT]

If we don't get in, this is the reason. We'll likely end the year with the "best loss" of any contender, but we're lacking in the "best win" category. Stanford is going in the wrong direction for a "signature win" opponent, and our margins of victory against North Carolina, Purdue, and Syracuse were just okay.

Need ASU and U$C to win every game but ND then.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Haven't seen any mention of this hypothetical scenario:

Miss St finishes regular season unbeaten. Georgia wins the remaining games in their regular season. Then GA beats Miss St in the championship game. That means the top SEC W team has one loss and the top SEC E team has one loss. Given SOS, I don't see how Miss St would be left out, even after losing its conference championship. The discussion is centered around one-loss teams here. Miss St, in this example, along with GA are arguably your best one-loss teams. IMO, the committee takes them both.

Miss St
Georgia
FSU
ND/Oregon

 

[ACamp1900]

Can't wait for two loss Georgia to beat the SEC West god.

Right after UGA loses to GT... that would be yummy.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

It's been said that common opponents are a factor. Since ND and MSU both played Purdue to about the same score (ND's win was actually better by points and MSU had to hold on at the end) then a close Michigan loss to MSU probably helps ND in a significant way - since the Irish whipped UM 31-0.

Not to mention MSU's loss to Oregon (a team ranked lower than F$U) that wasn't as close as ND's loss. ND s/b higher than MSU all day everyday.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

Well, I wouldn't say we got beat but with 1 loss in the column, here are the updated Unbeatens and 1 Loss teams with their remaining tough games who we are competing for a playoff spot with. I use the USA Today Coach's rankings...

October 19th, 2014

1) Miss State: @ #4 Bama (11/15), @ #3 Ole Miss (11/29), SEC Chipper
2) Florida State: @ Louisville (Thurs. 10/30), @ Miami (11/15 rivals), ACC Chipper
3) Ole Miss: #23 LSU (10/25)*, #6 Auburn (11/1), #1 Miss St (11/29), SEC Chipper
4) Bama: @ #23 LSU (11/8), #1 Miss St (11/15), #6 Auburn (11/29), SEC Chipper
5) Michigan State: #12 Ohio State (11/8), Big 10 Chipper
6) Auburn: @ #3 Ole Miss (11/1), @ #9 Georgia (11/15), @ #4 Bama (11/29), SEC Chipper
7) Oregon: Stanford (11/1), @ #19 Utah (11/8), PAC 12 Chipper
8) Notre Dame: @ #14 Arizona State (11/8), Louisville (11/22), @ #21 U$C (11/29)
9) Georgia: #6 Auburn (11/15), SEC Chipper
10) TCU: @ #25 West Virginia (11/1), #11 K State (11/8), @ Texas (11/27)
11) K State: Texas (10/25)*, OK State (11/1), @ #10 TCU (11/8), @ #13 Baylor (12/6)
12) Ohio State: @ Penn State (10/25)*, @ Michigan State (11/8), Big 10 Chipper
13) Baylor: @ #18 Oklahoma (11/8), OK State (11/22), #11 K State (12/6)
14) Arizona State: @ Washington (10/25)*, #19 Utah (11/1), #8 ND (11/8), @ #15 Arizona (11/28), PAC 12 Chipper
15) Arizona: @ UCLA (11/1), @ #19 Utah, #14 Arizona St (11/28), PAC 12 Chipper
16) Nebraska: @ Wisconsin (11/15), #24 Minnesota (11/22), Big 10 Chipper
17) East Carolina: @ Cinci (Thurs. 11/13), UCF (12/4)
19) Utah: #21 U$C (10/25)*, @ #14 Arizona St (11/1), #7 Oregon (11/8), @ Stanford (11/15), # 15 Arizona (11/22), PAC 12 Chipper
22) Marshall: Western Kentucky (11/28)
24) Minnesota: #12 Ohio State (11/15), @ 16 Nebraska (11/22), Big 10 Chipper

I've bolded the games I see the teams ranked ahead of us losing. Auburn, Miss State and Ole Miss will each go down. As much as I hate pO$U I might have to root for them over Sparty but I don't see it happening.

 

[JohnnyJasper]

There is like 2 or 3 of you who don't know how to read or understand how football schedules work....

The SEC West will cannibalize itself....I laid this out in a previous post in this thread.... Auburn and Alabama still have to play each other....Miss St and Alabama still have to play....Miss St. and Ole Miss have to play....Heck, Georgia and Auburn still have to play in the regular season....The team that comes from the SEC West, will most likely have 1 loss....and what if Georgia loses to Auburn in reg season, but beats say an unbeaten Miss St. in the conf title game? Either way, we're sittin' pretty when it comes to the SEC...they will get 1...and only 1...

Our concern needs to be someone (Looking at you Stanford or USC) beating Oregon....give Oregon that second loss; and preferably from a team we beat....

Mich St and Ohio St still have to play for BigTen East crown; and I would want that winner to run the table....FSU will hopefully run the table....

That leaves FSU vs ND and the Mich St/OSU winner vs SEC rep.....

ND's season is not done or over....far from it actually...we have the best 1 loss out there right now....
the winner of Alabama/Auburn isn't getting in with a different SEC West team....that just isn't a realistic possibility and it doesn't account for the Mississippi teams that are undefeated, that still have games against each other....

The Big 12 is in a bad spot because of the lack of a conf title game....K-State still plays both TCU and Baylor...and Oklahoma is out of the running and they still have a big home game against Baylor that we shld be pulling for the Sooners to win in.....

ND just needs to win on the field, and the rest will shake itself out....sooooo much football to be played; tons of big conf games left on the schedule that will bounce several 1 loss teams from the discussion....we win out and we're in....simple as that.

Agreed. I believe we've proven how for real we really are this year. And to win out, I don't see how we don't get at least the 4th spot. Like you said with so much football left these other teams at the top with 1 loss will eventually disappear. It's college football, and as of now I don't think theres a clear #1 overpowering team and that shows that any of these top 10 teams could lose more games. The Irish have a great opportunity in front of them. Win-out and I think we start ascending towards the top again. Our 1 loss will be looked at, "Yeah they lost to FSU, BUT..." And that alone gives us an edge when the committee has to look at the rest of the 1/2 loss teams. Saturday night was the best game the Irish have lost that I've seen since '06 Vs. USC. It hurt so much to watch the ending and having to accept the fact that the game was over. But there's something special about this team. I don't know about you guys but Im really looking forward to the selection and I can't wait to see FSU matched up with us again.
Go Irish