Does 1 Loss End ND's Playoff Hopes?

[Buster Bluth]

Gotta win the rest of the games though.

vs* Navy (3-4)
at Arizona State (5-1) - They will likely be 7-1 and a ~#10 team in the country for this game.
vs Northwestern (3-4)
vs Louisville (6-2) - They should be 7-3 and ranked ~#25.
at Southern Cal (5-2) - They could very well be 9-2, ~#10, and playing in the Pac-12 Championship.

Basically two huge road night games will give Notre Dame opportunities to impress the committee and grab the fourth spot.

 

[HoosierMP33]

There is like 2 or 3 of you who don't know how to read or understand how football schedules work....

The SEC West will cannibalize itself....I laid this out in a previous post in this thread.... Auburn and Alabama still have to play each other....Miss St and Alabama still have to play....Miss St. and Ole Miss have to play....Heck, Georgia and Auburn still have to play in the regular season....The team that comes from the SEC West, will most likely have 1 loss....and what if Georgia loses to Auburn in reg season, but beats say an unbeaten Miss St. in the conf title game? Either way, we're sittin' pretty when it comes to the SEC...they will get 1...and only 1...

Our concern needs to be someone (Looking at you Stanford or USC) beating Oregon....give Oregon that second loss; and preferably from a team we beat....

Mich St and Ohio St still have to play for BigTen East crown; and I would want that winner to run the table....FSU will hopefully run the table....

That leaves FSU vs ND and the Mich St/OSU winner vs SEC rep.....

ND's season is not done or over....far from it actually...we have the best 1 loss out there right now....
the winner of Alabama/Auburn isn't getting in with a different SEC West team....that just isn't a realistic possibility and it doesn't account for the Mississippi teams that are undefeated, that still have games against each other....

The Big 12 is in a bad spot because of the lack of a conf title game....K-State still plays both TCU and Baylor...and Oklahoma is out of the running and they still have a big home game against Baylor that we shld be pulling for the Sooners to win in.....

ND just needs to win on the field, and the rest will shake itself out....sooooo much football to be played; tons of big conf games left on the schedule that will bounce several 1 loss teams from the discussion....we win out and we're in....simple as that.

 

[nd_fan]

In the AP Poll ND is ranked #7

The AP Top 25 Poll | College Football

 

[HoosierMP33]

In the AP Poll ND is ranked #7

The AP Top 25 Poll | College Football

If there was an 8 team playoff, this stuff could be settled on the field, rather than a committee board room and polls (that they say will have no effect on who they put in the playoff's)....

I mean, c'mon....seriously? It is friggin' 2014 and we're STILL listening to guys in suits in a board room deciding who should play, rather than giving the kids from these schools the opportunity to win it on field by playing each other??

5 conf champs....3 at-large....the guys in the suits can team up with the suits from the BCS committee/computer geeks and decide where those 8 get ranked and who plays who....but as to who gets in? out of 100+ D1 schools....just 4...just 4?? a case for 8 is more compelling AND legit....once the BigTen or Pac-12 or Big 12 gets hosed....they'll be screaming for all conf champs to get a seat at the table...too much money to be at that table too not want a taste....

as for the new poll....glad it's 7 and we're behind teams that are going to be up on each other..... WE ARE ND..... GO IRISH!!!!

 

[ulukinatme]

4 of the top 5 teams are SEC West. Yeah, they're going to beat each other up some more...but it sure looks like the media wants at least 2 SEC teams in the playoff.

 

[NDfan12]

At this point.

At this point.

Irish just need to worry about beating Navy, ASU, UL, NU and USC. Whatever happens, happens. You'd think it'd be hard for a committee to ignore a 11-1 ND team, especially after that great game last night WHICH the Irish were in control of the whole time almost.

 

[irishfan]

I can't wait to see us these last 5 games after the bye. Our margin for error is completely gone, it will be fun to see if we can actually play at a high level for 5 weeks in a row. No more UNC games, or sloppy ones like Purdue and Syracuse. We can definitely get in at 11-1, but it wont be easy. Navy and Northwestern are games we have to win by 3+ scores. Louisville is good, but its at home. That's a game we have to win by 10+.

Last year we came out and looked like we didn't want to be there against Navy. If we can actually take it to them next week and blow them out like in 2011 and 2012, it will say a lot about the rest of the season and our playoff chances IMO.

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

Ok..

-We win out.

- FSU wins out.

- Stanford beats Oregon

- Bama beats Auburn (2nd loss = gone)

- Miss St beats Bama (2nd loss = gone)

- The Mississippis play each other but since it's 1 & 2 the loser stays in the playoffs.

- We trump Mich St based on SOS.

Final 4

1) Miss St. v 4) Notre Dame

2) FSU v 3) Ole Miss

 

[MNIrishman]

Ok..

-We win out.

- FSU wins out.

- Stanford beats Oregon

- Bama beats Auburn (2nd loss = gone)

- Miss St beats Bama (2nd loss = gone)

- The Mississippis play each other but since it's 1 & 2 the loser stays in the playoffs.

- We trump Mich St based on SOS.

Final 4

1) Miss St. v 4) Notre Dame

2) FSU v 3) Ole Miss

Damn I really hope two SEC teams aren't in this. SEC football is just so uncompelling.

 

[stlnd01]

Damn I really hope two SEC teams aren't in this. SEC football is just so uncompelling.

Really? I actually think it's a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
Either way, I'd say the most likely bet is two SEC teams, FSU and someone else.
The SEC will beat each other up over the next six weeks, but anyone who survives with one loss will make it. (I'd bet Ole Miss and Bama). They'll have the best wins, the best losses and the best pole position out there.
FSU's in the driver's seat. They'll be double digit favorites in every game they play. Guess they could blow it, but to who?
That leaves Oregon, MSU, maybe a Big 12 champ and us. If Oregon wins out, they could edge us. Big if, though. The other two seem less likely, considering our strength of schedule in the second half. If we take care of business, I like our odds.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

There is like 2 or 3 of you who don't know how to read or understand how football schedules work....

The SEC West will cannibalize itself....I laid this out in a previous post in this thread.... Auburn and Alabama still have to play each other....Miss St and Alabama still have to play....Miss St. and Ole Miss have to play....Heck, Georgia and Auburn still have to play in the regular season....The team that comes from the SEC West, will most likely have 1 loss....and what if Georgia loses to Auburn in reg season, but beats say an unbeaten Miss St. in the conf title game? Either way, we're sittin' pretty when it comes to the SEC...they will get 1...and only 1...

Our concern needs to be someone (Looking at you Stanford or USC) beating Oregon....give Oregon that second loss; and preferably from a team we beat....

Mich St and Ohio St still have to play for BigTen East crown; and I would want that winner to run the table....FSU will hopefully run the table....

That leaves FSU vs ND and the Mich St/OSU winner vs SEC rep.....

ND's season is not done or over....far from it actually...we have the best 1 loss out there right now....
the winner of Alabama/Auburn isn't getting in with a different SEC West team....that just isn't a realistic possibility and it doesn't account for the Mississippi teams that are undefeated, that still have games against each other....

The Big 12 is in a bad spot because of the lack of a conf title game....K-State still plays both TCU and Baylor...and Oklahoma is out of the running and they still have a big home game against Baylor that we shld be pulling for the Sooners to win in.....

ND just needs to win on the field, and the rest will shake itself out....sooooo much football to be played; tons of big conf games left on the schedule that will bounce several 1 loss teams from the discussion....we win out and we're in....simple as that.

I think your foolish to think 2 SEC teams won't make it. Even with two losses I can see one of them jumping most 1 loss teams. We have to remember this is strictly a human vote that decides the 4 teams, so being impressive is a lot more important than a numerical record and padded box scores. If miss state loses very close to bama and in sec championship, but has wins over auburn ole miss Lsu and A&m, how do you keep them out of the playoff? And then Georgia losses to auburn then beats miss state in Sec champ game. If miss state and Georgia are 11-2 they make the playoff.

 

[ickythump1225]

I think your foolish to think 2 SEC teams won't make it. Even with two losses I can see one of them jumping most 1 loss teams. We have to remember this is strictly a human vote that decides the 4 teams, so being impressive is a lot more important than a numerical record and padded box scores. If miss state loses very close to bama and in sec championship, but has wins over auburn ole miss Lsu and A&m, how do you keep them out of the playoff? And then Georgia losses to auburn then beats miss state in Sec champ game. If miss state and Georgia are 11-2 they make the playoff.

No way. A 2 loss team isn't making it. The only scenario I could foresee is perhaps a two loss SEC champ making it in if there aren't enough 1 loss conference winners. I know the SEC gets some benefit of the doubt no way 2 loss non conference winners jump over 1 loss conference winners/a 1 loss ND team.

 

[HoosierMP33]

I think your foolish to think 2 SEC teams won't make it. Even with two losses I can see one of them jumping most 1 loss teams. We have to remember this is strictly a human vote that decides the 4 teams, so being impressive is a lot more important than a numerical record and padded box scores. If miss state loses very close to bama and in sec championship, but has wins over auburn ole miss Lsu and A&m, how do you keep them out of the playoff? And then Georgia losses to auburn then beats miss state in Sec champ game. If miss state and Georgia are 11-2 they make the playoff.

The ONLY compelling way 2 SEC teams get in is close to the scenario you gave....Miss St runs the table....Georgia loses to Auburn in reg season (2nd loss)....Georgia then beats Miss St. in SEC championship game.....then you have an 11-2 Georgia as SEC champs and 12-1 Miss St. who ran the table in the SEC West, only to get tripped up in the SEC championship game...

Then I can understand 2 SEC schools getting in....other than that....NO....If I'm wrong on Dec 7th, come back and quote me and call me out....but the month of November is brutal in the SEC West....No way 2 SEC schools get in....check the current records and upcoming schedule....no way a 2 loss SEC school gets in above a 1 loss conf champ or ND; unless it's an SEC champ in Georgia....I think it's foolish to believe in this media-created (ESPN) SEC hype....

 

[tussin]

The ONLY compelling way 2 SEC teams get in is close to the scenario you gave....Miss St runs the table....Georgia loses to Auburn in reg season (2nd loss)....Georgia then beats Miss St. in SEC championship game.....then you have an 11-2 Georgia as SEC champs and 12-1 Miss St. who ran the table in the SEC West, only to get tripped up in the SEC championship game...

Then I can understand 2 SEC schools getting in....other than that....NO....If I'm wrong on Dec 7th, come back and quote me and call me out....but the month of November is brutal in the SEC West....No way 2 SEC schools get in....check the current records and upcoming schedule....no way a 2 loss SEC school gets in above a 1 loss conf champ or ND; unless it's an SEC champ in Georgia....I think it's foolish to believe in this media-created (ESPN) SEC hype....

Why is a Georgia loss to Auburn a factor in that scenario?

 

[HoosierMP33]

Why is a Georgia loss to Auburn a factor in that scenario?

it would be their 2nd loss....thus going with the 2 loss SEC school getting in scenario....but they need to win the SEC title game as well.....

 

[RDU Irish]

I'm OK with us making the playoffs and beating two SEC teams to win a title. Perfectly fine with me.

 

[GATTACA!]

it would be their 2nd loss....thus going with the 2 loss SEC school getting in scenario....but they need to win the SEC title game as well.....

I believe Tussins point is why would it matter that they have 2 losses? Your point would be more compelling for two SEC teams if they both only had one loss.

 

[GATTACA!]

I'm OK with us making the playoffs and beating two SEC teams to win a title. Perfectly fine with me.

Id rather go double rematch and beat Alabama and FSU

 

[tussin]

I believe Tussins point is why would it matter that they have 2 losses? Your point would be more compelling for two SEC teams if they both only had one loss.

Yes, that was my point.

I guess he was just trying to provide a scenario where a two-loss SEC team gets in.

 

[HoosierMP33]

I believe Tussins point is why would it matter that they have 2 losses? Your point would be more compelling for two SEC teams if they both only had one loss.

No...this goes back to someone's else point that a 2-loss SEC team could leapfrog a 1 loss conf champ and get in.....granted, at this point you could interchange Miss St. & Ole Miss (as both are undefeated and have to play each other) but the scenario that works where a 2 loss SEC school gets in is Georgia losing to a highly ranked Auburn team (Georgia's 2nd loss) and then winning the SEC title game as the East representative....that would leave, for argument's sake, 11-2 Georgia as SEC champ, 12-1 Miss St. as the team who ran the West but lost in SEC title game and Ole Miss could be 11-1 only having lost to Miss St. but matching ND's record.....then I can see 2 SEC schools getting in...but ONLY in that scenario does a 2 loss SEC team possibly get in is with Georgia being that school....

 

[BleedBlueGold]

In this breakdown, I'm assuming a myriad of one-loss teams will be up for consideration. And this is my prediction for a top 4 as things currently stand. It will obviously change as the season progresses:

I personally feel that any team that has been blown out (regardless of opponent or venue) should not be considered. MSU, Baylor, Ohio St, Arizona St, and Auburn currently fit that bill. It's hard for me to justify a team who's been beaten badly earning the right to take a playoff spot over any other one-loss team who has not. As the season plays out, there may be exceptions (due to SOS and win resume). All things equal, I have to drop these teams at the moment.

It's also a given that the SEC West will beat up on each other. It's also almost certain that someone will come out with more than one loss, thus dropping from consideration. It's impossible to predict who that may be right now, but it will surely happen.

Georgia could sneak in, but like ND, must run the table in order to do so. The problem is that a one-loss GA team takes a SEC spot, and the committee may end up giving the SEC West winner a spot as well. Example, Miss St wins the SEC West and is undefeated, but loses to GA in the championship. I don't see a scenario where Miss St gets left out with only one loss and their resume of significant wins.

FSU will almost undoubtedly run the table. They're in.

That leaves Oregon, ND, and the BIG12 teams. Oregon's loss to Arizona isn't terrible but it was at home and if Zona losses any more games it looks worse and worse. ND's loss speaks for itself and shouldn't count against them as much as Oregon's. TCU and KState still play each other (along with other tough match-ups against OU and Baylor). Most assume they'll sink each other. Any two-loss team drops. A one-loss BIG12 team may be able to make a case, but w/o a conference championship, I think they'll be left out.

The B1G is a weak conference. I don't buy MSU, OSU, Nebraska, etc making a solid case for taking a spot. I don't care what anyone says, they just don't have the respect this season to make it justifiable putting them in the playoff. OSU was beat by double-digits at home to WVU, MSU was beat by double-digits at Oregon. That leaves Nebraska. If they win-out, it's possible, but given their schedule, I feel others are more deserving.

Given this breakdown, I've come to the conclusion that if this season plays out as outlined, ND has a legit shot if they win out.

My current prediction:

1) Florida State - Undefeated
2) Miss State - One loss
3) One of Alabama/OleMiss, whomever has only one loss, if possible
4) ND

5) In the event that the SEC eats itself, I think Oregon is next in line, barring a major upset

Edit: The SEC West has my mind boggled at the moment. I'm not sure there's a scenario where two of those teams get in. Maybe there is. Idk.

 

[BobbyMac]

No...this goes back to someone's else point that a 2-loss SEC team could leapfrog a 1 loss conf champ and get in.....granted, at this point you could interchange Miss St. & Ole Miss (as both are undefeated and have to play each other) but the scenario that works where a 2 loss SEC school gets in is Georgia losing to a highly ranked Auburn team (Georgia's 2nd loss) and then winning the SEC title game as the East representative....that would leave, for argument's sake, 11-2 Georgia as SEC champ, 12-1 Miss St. as the team who ran the West but lost in SEC title game and Ole Miss could be 11-1 only having lost to Miss St. but matching ND's record.....then I can see 2 SEC schools getting in...but ONLY in that scenario does a 2 loss SEC team possibly get in is with Georgia being that school....

This is the nightmare scenario that could allow 3 SEC schools in. Ole Miss' only loss would be on the road to their #1 ranked rival. That trumps ND's loss and everyone else's.

* EDIT -- Egg Bowl is @ Ole Miss so flip the script and have MState lose on the road to the #2 ranked team. Still as good of a loss as anyone and that's before you enter strength of schedule.

 

[CHIDomer9]

I was thinking Hawaii in early December would be a nice reward for the players. I always like beating those Dirty Mormons too but I guess we can't play them for a 13th.

12/5 PAC 12 Championship Game
12/6 SEC Championship Game
12/6 Big 10 Championship Game

I don't think you want the optics of 3 conference championship games and ND collecting another win and a tan in Hawaii.

 

[HoosierMP33]

12/5 PAC 12 Championship Game
12/6 SEC Championship Game
12/6 Big 10 Championship Game

I don't think you want the optics of 3 conference championship games and ND collecting another win and a tan in Hawaii.

I was actually just about to post on this topic....I'm in favor of ending our season in Hawaii yearly; playing that game the week after Stanford/USC rotational game....I saw someone's post about how that missing win could hurt us since the other teams get it in conf title games....Why not use the Hawaii Exemption in our favor?? Isn't that the whole idea?? what's better 12-1 or 11-1?? Besides, our fans would make the trip yearly....Hawaii, although they prolly wouldnt like the loss every year, they would love the $$ ND brings them....just sayin'....might be a good way to reward team/fans....and cover up for the lack of that 13th game....

 

[CHIDomer9]

I was actually just about to post on this topic....I'm in favor of ending our season in Hawaii yearly; playing that game the week after Stanford/USC rotational game

There is a good reason ND finishes in CA every year and it is recruiting. BK doesn't come back with the team and takes another lap in recruiting on the west coast.

....I saw someone's post about how that missing win could hurt us since the other teams get it in conf title games....Why not use the Hawaii Exemption in our favor?? Isn't that the whole idea?? what's better 12-1 or 11-1??

Because if ND is 11-1 headed into that game and so are two other teams after their conference championship games, it makes it really easy to choose them over ND. If you are beating USC or Stanford to finish the season, why not leave that taste in the mouth of the committee?

Besides, our fans would make the trip yearly

An extremely small percentage of fans. If the point is to reward the people in your fanbase to drop several thousand dollars in early December to watch a not very good football game when there are several better options on TV that weekend, sure.

 

[HoosierMP33]

There is a good reason ND finishes in CA every year and it is recruiting. BK doesn't come back with the team and takes another lap in recruiting on the west coast.



Because if ND is 11-1 headed into that game and so are two other teams after their conference championship games, it makes it really easy to choose them over ND. If you are beating USC or Stanford to finish the season, why not leave that taste in the mouth of the committee?



An extremely small percentage of fans. If the point is to reward the people in your fanbase to drop several thousand dollars in early December to watch a not very good football game when there are several better options on TV that weekend, sure.

ok....the first 2 reasons make sense and I didnt consider those points....so then what about starting the season in Hawaii, rather then ending it? Or even starting our season a week earlier and putting it in the middle of the year followed by a bye-week? I think fans would travel....and even if we don't, the hawaii stadium wld still draw a crowd compared to if Nevada was coming to play....Certain teams in certain sports just sell and put butts in seats....ND...Yankees...Cowboys....

 

[CHIDomer9]

ok....the first 2 reasons make sense and I didnt consider those points....so then what about starting the season in Hawaii, rather then ending it?

I could be OK with that. But then you're giving up decent weather in South Bend.

 

[Blaise]

If Miss St and Miss are undefeated when they play in the egg bowl.. The loser is getting in the playoff... I don't think this happens cuz I think they will get tripped up but to say no way two SEC makes the playoff is not really looking at conference bias

Oregon going 11-1 scares me... It will give them wins over the Pac 12 teams we beat.. and they will have a conference title game to showcase themselves... I think its a must Oregon has to lose one more game...

 

[RDU Irish]

I don't get this convo around the SEC getting two teams in. Send the champ and call it a day. Why give the SEC runner up another shot at a natty if they couldn't win their conference? With the selection committee, I think they will want a broader representation.

 

[clashmore_jon]

So looking at this week's matchups, the best somewhat realistic scenario we can hope for this week would be LSU beating Ole Miss at home and/or South Carolina Beating Auburn on the road.

I still think Michigan is a pretty athletic team and i wouldn't be too upset if they got it together long enough to end any discussion of MSU getting in.

so those are the three games i'm going to keep an eye on. Anything else?