Does 1 Loss End ND's Playoff Hopes?

[GoldenDomer]

Yes.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

This is how we would get in

1) Michigan State loses the Big 10 championship to Iowa, Minnesota, or Nebraska, who all lose to each other rock-paper-scissors style. This eliminates the Big 10.

2) Auburn beats Ole Miss, Mississippi State beats Alabama, Alabama beats Auburn, and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State, and maybe the SEC East would have to win there. That eliminates the chances of two SEC teams.

3) Like Wizard said, Stanford/ASU/USC wins the Pac-12 and they don't lose another game (besides to us). That gives us a signature win over a potential playoff team.

4) Florida State stays undefeated and Baylor loses a game somewhere.

There we would have no B1G, a signature win, only loss to the only P5 undefeated, and the B1G is eliminated as a whole. The decision would fall to the team we beat with 2 losses or us, and in that case I believe we would be in.

Playoffs would be 1) Florida State 2) SEC winner 3) us 4) Oklahoma/Baylor probably. Nebraska/Minnesota/Iowa and Arizona State/USC/Stanford can go have a make believe Rose Bowl in Insignificance Land.

.

 

[phork]

Why not play BYU every year for the 13th game? They are independent like us and Utah is a hell of a lot closer than Hawaii.

Also I think it's best to beat FSU. Like you said if FSU beats us they are almost a lock to make the playoffs, that is 1 of 4 spots gone right there. If we beat them and both end with 1 loss our case to get in over them is more compelling than if we lose to them.

Because teams that play at Hawaii are allowed a 13th game.

 

[IRISH in MT]

Why not play BYU every year for the 13th game? They are independent like us and Utah is a hell of a lot closer than Hawaii.

Also I think it's best to beat FSU. Like you said if FSU beats us they are almost a lock to make the playoffs, that is 1 of 4 spots gone right there. If we beat them and both end with 1 loss our case to get in over them is more compelling than if we lose to them.

Because teams that play at Hawaii are allowed a 13th game.

I was thinking Hawaii in early December would be a nice reward for the players. I always like beating those Dirty Mormons too but I guess we can't play them for a 13th.

 

[ACamp1900]

Dirty Mormons??? damn.


Anyway, Hawaii at the end of the year would be nice and it would give you an 'in' with players from that region that no other big school has...

 

[IRISH in MT]

Originally Posted by Title2114
This is how we would get in

1) Michigan State loses the Big 10 championship to Iowa, Minnesota, or Nebraska, who all lose to each other rock-paper-scissors style. This eliminates the Big 10.

2) Auburn beats Ole Miss, Mississippi State beats Alabama, Alabama beats Auburn, and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State, and maybe the SEC East would have to win there. That eliminates the chances of two SEC teams.

3) Like Wizard said, Stanford/ASU/USC wins the Pac-12 and they don't lose another game (besides to us). That gives us a signature win over a potential playoff team.

4) Florida State stays undefeated and Baylor loses a game somewhere.

There we would have no B1G, a signature win, only loss to the only P5 undefeated, and the B1G is eliminated as a whole. The decision would fall to the team we beat with 2 losses or us, and in that case I believe we would be in.

Playoffs would be 1) Florida State 2) SEC winner 3) us 4) Oklahoma/Baylor probably. Nebraska/Minnesota/Iowa and Arizona State/USC/Stanford can go have a make believe Rose Bowl in Insignificance Land.





IRISH in MT - NICE breakdown! I was thinking it may be hard to get in over 1 loss Oklahoma or Baylor but your scenario eliminates the Big 10 so we could still make it. SEC West definitely needs to devour itself. I was HOPING a 2 loss SEC West wins the SEC but we got the nod with only 1 loss. Unfortunately I see Oregon winning out so we really need the Big 10 Champ and SEC West to have 2 losses.

 

[IRISH in MT]

]Dirty Mormons??? damn.

Just a joke because in MT they think they are holier than Catholics. I tease them that Jesus loves me for free and that we go to confession instead of buying our sins away.

 

[wizards8507]

Unfortunately I see Oregon winning out so we really need the Big 10 Champ and SEC West to have 2 losses.

Oregon blows.

#analysis

 

[ND NYC]

if Jack et al can keep all the details of this Frozen 5 under wraps surely he can finagle a way for us to play in the ACC Championship game without actually being in the conference

 

[koonja]

Depends who the loss is to and by how much. If we drop one to Louisville (who might be our toughest opponent after FSU), USC, we're out. If we lose by a very little to ASU with Kelly or FSU with Winston, we're in IMO.

Taking bets on this too.

 

[koonja]

Absolutely not and that's a fact. I'll bet a billion vbucks to a person's 1. End of thread.

 

[Irish2155]

If today is the only loss, hell yes we makle it in.

 

[blackirish]

No but I think 2 SEC teams, FSU, and Oklahoma go above us.

The Sooners are finished, the problem is our win against Stanford will hold even less weight if they end up loosing to ASU because that would give Stanford 3 losses for the season and as of right now they're loosing so who do we have left on our schedule that would look like a signature win Louisville ? I doubt it. USC ? they lost to Boston College, so we need the SEC teams in the top spots to cannibalize each other and that still may not help us.
BTW, I found it kinda ironic that the Officiating crew for tonight's game were from the SEC.

 

[RallySonsOfND]

The Sooners are finished, the problem is our win against Stanford will hold even less weight if they end up loosing to ASU because that would give Stanford 3 losses for the season and as of right now they're loosing so who do we have left on our schedule that would like a signature win Louisville ? I doubt it. USC ? they lost to Boston College, so we need the SEC teams in the top spots to cannibalize each other and that still may not help us.
BTW, I found it kinda ironic that the Officiating crew for tonight's game were from the SEC.

ASU. AT ASU.

 

[RyCo1983]

After tonight, if this is the only loss. ND could definitely make the playoff.

 

[irishfaith]

The Irish will no doubt be in the top 4 if they win out. With the running attack coming together we will be able to beat anyone - which I think is the most important thing to take away from tonight. In my opinion it's just about getting better and staying healthy so we can do well in the playoff.

 

[GATTACA!]

Where the fuck does ESPN come up with these numbers?? We have a 53% chance to beat ASU and a 40%!! chance to beat USC mk ESPN fuck off

 

[HoosierMP33]

Here's the thing....

Looking at ESPN's love affair with the SEC West.....They are going to cannibalize each other....

Miss St. still has away games at ALA and Ole Miss...

Ole Miss still has @ LSU, home for Auburn & Miss St....

ALA still has @ LSU, home for Miss St. & Auburn....

Auburn still has home for South Carolina, @ Ole Miss, home for Tex A&M, @ Georgia and @ ALA....

Georgia SHOULD win the SEC East...I guess we hope for Georgia to upset Auburn in the regular season, then lose to whoever is left standing for the SEC West in the conf title game....

I expect that whoever is left standing from the SEC West, will have either 1 loss (like us) but the rest of the west has 2....that is good for ND....

We really need Stanford to come up big with a win @ Oregon on Nov. 1.....

The Big 12 will cannibalize itself too....

K-State still has away games against TCU & Baylor...and fwiw, West Virginia....

The Big Ten still has Mich St playing Ohio St for the East....So that takes away one of them from the 1-loss category....and the East winner should probably get in....

My point, in the long, round-about-way about it, is that there is still soooo much football to be played....We are in a great spot as a 1 loss team....we have quality games ahead of us to win....the rest will take care of itself....If we do our part on the field, we're playoff bound...and us against FSU, on a neutral field next time around?? Let's do it!!

My playoff prediction?

FSU vs. ND
Mich St. vs. Miss St.

 

[Riddickulous]

We need to win out and do it impressively.

 

[stlnd01]

If tonight's our one loss, I do think we make it.
Here's how:
Barring a big upset, FSU's in.
The SEC champ makes it in (either Ole Miss/MSU winner or Georgia. But not both.).
The winner of the Auburn/Alabama game makes it in.
That's three. From there it gets interesting.

If we win out, the only team with a shot to make it out of the Pac-12 with one loss is Oregon. But they could very well lose to Stanford or the South champ (ASU? USC?). They don't feel that good. So that happens.
The Big-12 will likewise cannibalize itself. Baylor will have no big wins, and everyone else will have two losses.
The Big 10 is kind of a joke. The MSU/OSU winner may finish with one loss, but we'll have better wins over ASU, USC, and a better loss vs. FSU.
So between us, MSU/OSU, and a one-loss, no-win Baylor, I like our chances. Biggest risk is Oregon lighting it up the rest of the way.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Season's over. Maybe next year will be the one. We aren't in a conference. There needs to be less than 4 1-loss teams, including us, to get in. It won't happen.

 

[DillonHall]

Season's over. Maybe next year will be the one. We aren't in a conference. There needs to be less than 4 1-loss teams, including us, to get in. It won't happen.

You are an incredibly unpleasant person.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

You are an incredibly unpleasant person.

What's there to be pleasant about right now? A phenomenal performance got wiped away by a weak call, and that call changed the entire season for us. Knowing that a ref deciding to throw a flag whenever he wants makes this all seem pretty pointless. Maybe we'll sneak in the playoffs because Oregon will get screwed (again).

I'm falling out of love with football.

 

[MNIrishman]

You are an incredibly unpleasant person.

Indeed. This is bullshit.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I think ASU winning tonight helps us. I wasn't sure before but since we play both, but we need another shot at a "good" win.

 

[pkt77242]

Season's over. Maybe next year will be the one. We aren't in a conference. There needs to be less than 4 1-loss teams, including us, to get in. It won't happen.

I disagree. If we go 11-1, I would put the odds of us getting in at about 75%, just depends on what happens in the PAC 12 and Big 10. The SEC is getting 1-2 teams, FSU is likely in, that leaves 1-2 slots open between us, BIG 10 champion and Pac 12 (if Oregon or U of A wins out). Personally I like our chances of getting in but it isn't guaranteed.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Season's over. Maybe next year will be the one. We aren't in a conference. There needs to be less than 4 1-loss teams, including us, to get in. It won't happen.

This has a "persecution complex" feel to it. If we have a top-4 resume we will be in. And I think winning out gives us a legit chance for that.

 

[stlnd01]

I'm falling out of love with football.

OK. Your loss. I'm proud of our team tonight. They played their balls off. And I think there's a lot of football to be played before I throw in the towel on our chances.

 

[WakeUpEchoes]

What's there to be pleasant about right now? A phenomenal performance got wiped away by a weak call, and that call changed the entire season for us. Knowing that a ref deciding to throw a flag whenever he wants makes this all seem pretty pointless. Maybe we'll sneak in the playoffs because Oregon will get screwed (again).

I'm falling out of love with football.

What are you talking about? This was probably the greatest football game in the last two years. I had Ohio State and Michigan fans texting me all night telling me how awesome of a game it was.

You're pissed, which is understandable.

 

[IrishLax]

ND can get in at 11-1. What we need to have happen is FSU win out. They get a spot.

Then SEC #1 gets a spot.

Then we need ASU to win the PAC12 and we have beaten them. Otherwise, Oregon gets a spot.

Then it comes down to B1G or Big 12 versus us. Most likely, we need Big Ten champ to have 2 losses as crazy as that sounds, but since Big 12 doesn't play a championship game we could easily get in over a team like Baylor, 2-loss Oklahoma, or TCU.