Grahambo
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That is a large percentage of people (conservatively about 35% to 10% depending on test) that will fail them completely sober. And this is looking at the three standardized most reliable ones recommended by NHTSA.
You're obviously familiar with them. My problem with the HGN test is that the actual administration of the test is inconsistent, and cops often drag your eyes out to a point where it naturally happens. If they say you fail, you have no recourse as it's not going to be visible on video what you did or did not do... whatever the cop says goes.
My problem with the other two tests are that you can "fail" by doing things that aren't really failing to execute what was asked of you if the cop wants to get you.
It's weird that I'm this impassioned about this stuff when I've never gotten a DUI much less gone through a traffic stop. And I don't have any family that's gotten a DUI. Or have anyone I really care about that's been affected by a DUI. But with my work with SADD coupled with law enforcement people I've talked to about DUIs I just don't think it's a fair system.
The ones I've been involved with are probably the outliers in your stats. In my experience people have been asked stuff like:
Follow the top of the pen with just your eyes and not your head.
Starting with your left foot, walk heel to toe for 9 steps, turn around and do the same thing while counting your steps out loud.
What is today?
What time is it?
Where are you at?
Those are just some of things. There's always two cops there and there's a cheat sheet we use. Literally just reading it off. It's more in depth then just doing an FST which is kinda why I suggested my experiences are an outlier. I've been involved with people hitting multiple cars, sleeping at traffic lights, etc. Just had one recently involving a former CNN anchor.
In DC, if you refuse then your license is automatically suspended.