Why does ND always choke in the Tournament?

[aubeirish]

Easy solution. Have Muffet coach both teams.

 

[RDU Irish]

Brey's style is not conducive to win streaks. We can beat just about anyone but we can't string together 4-5 games in a row which is key to late season success.

Watching the tourney is frustrating to see so many teams do so well with so much less. Then again, you think about how close so many games are and the level of parity, we could compete with most of the teams out there. Except for a handful of top seeds, we would not be an easy first round win.

Amaker would be a great coach for us and about the only one I can think of that would fully appreciate the student athlete aspect of our university AND possibly be in play. I just don't think there is any connection there and I could see him preferring a basketball first school over us.

 

[RDU Irish]

I also look at the coaching and think Brey is sub-par at in game management.

1) he doesn't use the bench
2) in game adjustments are non-existent
3) play calls out of time outs and situational work is pathetic
4) if the star is cold we are toast, supporting cast looks scared to take any control whatsoever

 

[Buster Bluth]

Brey's style is not conducive to win streaks. We can beat just about anyone but we can't string together 4-5 games in a row which is key to late season success.

Hasn't Bret had a ton of streaks through the years when no one expected? They went on a tear after they beat #1 Syracuse that one year, no?

 

[Emcee77]

I also look at the coaching and think Brey is sub-par at in game management.

1) he doesn't use the bench
2) in game adjustments are non-existent
3) play calls out of time outs and situational work is pathetic
4) if the star is cold we are toast, supporting cast looks scared to take any control whatsoever

This is my number one complaint with Brey's coaching. Every year he seems to pick a guy or a couple guys who have the green light all the time no matter what. Then we either win or lose every game based on whether those guys have a good night, with most of the team just watching those chosen scorers.

His offensive philosophy seems not to be about working for high percentage shots the way I learned to do growing up; it's about getting the ball to his best players and letting them try to score, even if they have to create their own shots, which may or may not be off-balance or from crazy angles or 5 feet behind the 3 point line or whatever. It's frustrating to watch someone like Jerian Grant or Ben Hansbrough or Chris Thomas (going waaaaay back to Brey's early days) try to shoot himself out of a slump and bring the team down with him. And I don't blame those players, by the way; I blame Brey.

 

[IrishLax]

The thing about Brey is that I don't hold tournament results against him. In the Big East, he repeatedly showed the ability to build competitive teams in the toughest conference in the land.

The tournament is 80% luck. The only NCAA tournament format worse than basketball is hockey. So much of your success is dictated by your draw and how you matchup with those teams... and virtually any college basketball team can beat another on a given night with just hot/cold shooting. For Brey, he built a team that was good for the Big East but was a poor matchup athletic teams... sure enough, the year we're a #2 seed he gets FSU who was absurdly athletic with dominant defenders and the refs decided to swallow their whistles. Last year we get Iowa State who was incredibly under-seeded for their talent and a horrible mismatch for us and we were big dogs in Vegas. Another year I remember us getting the best #11 Wichita State (I think?) and being even odds in Vegas.

To make a deep run you really need the right draw. Rarely do even #1 seeds even make a run to the final four if they have to go through 8-4-2 to get there. What you need is something like Michigan's draw where you get to play 15, 7, 11, 8 or 4... or Florida 16, 9, 4, 10 or 11. In both those runs, you get 4 games against teams you would be heavily favored against and only 1 game against a legitimate top 25 team.

What's unacceptable are years like this year. If he can't be competitive in the ACC, then he needs to go... but we probably need to give him at least 1 or 2 more years to see what happens. If Brey can get back to fielding consistent top 25 teams that make the tournament, then there is no reason to ever fire him.

 

[IrishLax]

I also look at the coaching and think Brey is sub-par at in game management.

1) he doesn't use the bench
2) in game adjustments are non-existent
3) play calls out of time outs and situational work is pathetic
4) if the star is cold we are toast, supporting cast looks scared to take any control whatsoever

Totally agree with all of this. Brey's system for success:
1. Star player at the 1 or 2. The offense runs through them.
2. A tenacious rebounder who might not be great at defense or offense (usually he's very good at one of those and not great at the other) but is very physical and fights for every board.
3. A supporting cast of shooters who are ideally long but often not.

He struggles mightily with all 4 of your points, but his system... especially because of how conducive it is to shooting 3 and reducing fast break/second chance opportunities... worked well in regular season play for awhile. This year he had soft players inside, had his "star" suspended, and did not have any of the secondary scorers assert themselves as guys who could take over. When this happened, all of the flaws of his in-game/schematic coaching became apparent. After the Maryland game this year, I completely gave up on this team as it was so obvious they would not be able to compete, and didn't watch another game.

 

[Emcee77]

Lax, reps, I totally agree with both posts.

Brey has won a lot of games, beaten a lot of top teams, and there's no reason he can't close a season with a 6-game win streak one of these years. My above post notwithstanding, I am not and have never been in favor of firing Brey. We have a really solid basketball program. We had a shitty year with a lot of bad luck this year, but I am going to consider it an anomaly unless our team proves otherwise in the next few years.

 

[RDU Irish]

In isolation, I agree that the parity in the tourney in any given year you shouldn't get your underwear in a bunch over getting beaten by a lower seed, whether that is because you didn't show up or the other team got hot doesn't really matter. In a single season sample that should be marked up as "shit happens".

However, a consistent Top 25 team should make a Sweet 16 run at least once a decade, I would argue more like every 4-5 years would be a realistic expectation. If we are even odds against our opponent that should mean one win every other year and a two win run every four years. A reasonable expectation for the teams he has put together for the last decade yet we continue to crap the bed.

 

[IrishMoore1]

Is this the year we go past the 2nd round?

 

[IrishLion]

Texas/Butler terrify me.

 

[Cali_domer]

Texas/Butler terrify me.

Northeastern scares me.

 

[GATTACA!]

Is this the year we go past the 2nd round?

Not now that you jinxed us

 

[tko]

Northeastern will be so full of piss and vinegar. I can envision them shooting about 78% from the floor.

 

[johnnycando]

Ugh.

I have ND elite 8.

I swore I'd bet my brain and not my heart.

I may be love blind.

 

[irishfan]

Ugh.

I have ND elite 8.

I swore I'd bet my brain and not my heart.

I may be love blind.

I've got them going Final Four. I have Wisconsin winning it all, so I kinda just said screw it with ND>Kentucky.

I sadly would debate having ND winning it all if they were in the East or South. Those regions are very weak. IMO Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Arizona are the strongest 3 teams right now. I would legitimately put ND over Nova, Duke, UVA, Gonzaga, OU, Iowa State.

 

[NDOM]

Northeastern is no pushover...I'm scared of them. Imnterrified of the potential 3rd round matchup with Butler or Texas too. I have ND winning 2 this year. I have been burned by them too many times to put them any further.

 

[General Colon Bowel]

I've got them going Final Four. I have Wisconsin winning it all, so I kinda just said screw it with ND>Kentucky.

I sadly would debate having ND winning it all if they were in the East or South. Those regions are very weak. IMO Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Arizona are the strongest 3 teams right now. I would legitimately put ND over Nova, Duke, UVA, Gonzaga, OU, Iowa State.

I could see it. I think we're one of about six teams that could plausibly beat Kentucky. But we could also get demolished by them if we go cold shooting.

I definitely think we'll at least get to the sweet 16, and I think we can certainly beat Kansas/Wichita St/Indiana too. The thing that makes me much more confident about this team than teams from years past is that when our shooting goes cold, we have two guys (Grant and Jackson) who can create their own points with the ball in their hands. Past teams have lived or died by the three. While it's definitely still this team's biggest strength, they have the ability to win games in which we go cold from the arc for 10 minutes or a half (we saw it in the ACC tournament against Miami, Duke, and UNC). Obviously, to beat a team like Kansas or Kentucky we're going to need a good shooting performance, but I think we can beat teams like NE, Butler or Texas with a mediocre long-range shooting night. My prediction is that we make it to the elite 8, Kentucky's length disrupts our shooting rhythm and is hard to defend, Grant does an admirable Shabazz Napier/Kemba Walker impression with Jackson as his superhero sidekick, and we fall just short losing by 10 with the score looking not as close as the game bc of garbage time free throws.

 

[IrishFaninTX]

Normally I would say we will be out after round 2 regardless of the team. Because most years even when we have talent, we don't do much with it past the regular season. Never made it to the conference title game and a lot of times were out after 1 game. The way this team played in the ACC tourney makes me think this team is different. Yeah they lost their early leads in all 3 games but they found the determination and will to win and managed to beat both Duke and UNC in back to back games in basically their backyards. That team right there makes me believe they can get to the Elite 8. No team they face before the Elite 8 is going to be as good as Duke or UNC. But if the Brey team that chokes in the NCAA tournament shows up then I can see them being out in the 1st round. Brey has to know he has something so special with this team and he has to prepare them differently than he has any other team in his career. They can't come out playing too tight but they also cannot come out thinking they are hot sh*t because they won their conference, either.

 

[ACamp1900]

I said, 'I haven't watched cbb other than ND in years, f it, Irish win it all...' I got them beating Duke in the natty by 95....

 

[IrishLax]

This thread is the absolute greatest to go back and re-read. Fantastic discussion going back 4 years to the FSU loss.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I picked Texas to beat ND in my bracket. My reasons were one team that shouldn't have made the tourney always wins two games, and this thread. Regardless, I hope Butler smashes them, and then ND does the same to the Dawgs.

 

[johnnycando]

I've got them going Final Four. I have Wisconsin winning it all, so I kinda just said screw it with ND>Kentucky.

I sadly would debate having ND winning it all if they were in the East or South. Those regions are very weak. IMO Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Arizona are the strongest 3 teams right now. I would legitimately put ND over Nova, Duke, UVA, Gonzaga, OU, Iowa State.

I hope you're right my man.

I'll be smiling!

 

[Irish#1]

I picked Texas to beat ND in my bracket. My reasons were one team that shouldn't have made the tourney always wins two games, and this thread. Regardless, I hope Butler smashes them, and then ND does the same to the Dawgs.

Butler is the type of team that is hard to beat if you don't play them regularly. Texas is definitely the bigger more athletic team, but that's usually the case with Butler's opponents.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Fuck that, im going into the tournament confident this year. We're alot more athletic than usual and we shoot lights out, Grant and Pat C are taking us to the sweet 16

Probably jinxed it but oh well its march madness time...

 

[House16]

This thread is the absolute greatest to go back and re-read. Fantastic discussion going back 4 years to the FSU loss.

I love reading people (accurately) diagnose the problem that we didn't have athletes, too many white players, not enough physicality, etc. I wish I could tell them to wait about 4 years... watching Jackson, Grant, Vasturia, Connaughton, Auguste absolutely fight out there has been awesome.

 

[returnofthemack]

I love reading people (accurately) diagnose the problem that we didn't have athletes, too many white players, not enough physicality, etc. I wish I could tell them to wait about 4 years... watching Jackson, Grant, Vasturia, Connaughton, Auguste absolutely fight out there has been awesome.

That's the only reason I think ND might get to the Sweet 16 this year. In previous years, the only player that I believed could elevate to any level necessary was Ben Hansborough - fantastic player, one of my favorites. Hansborough was our version of Russell Westbrook. However, he also had Westbrook's bad traits: if his shot wasn't going in, he didn't give a damn, he'd keep shooting; he was too aggressive sometimes. While I often wish Grant would take over the game, he usually does a pretty good job at picking and choosing his moments. If Jackson plays like he did during the ACC tournament, he's very hard to stop. He consistently dribbled circles around the Duke and UNC PGs and plays with an energy I haven't seen since Hansborough, as evidenced by that primal scream after he threw down that dunk against UNC.

Another factor is that this team doesn't have a black hole on offense - I've commented multiple times, probably on this thread too, that Hillesland and Scott Martin were two of the worst basketball players I have ever seen. They were atrocious on offense - I saw them miss more layups and dunks than some players have attempted, and if Martin dribbled 2+ times, it was a guaranteed turnover. Vasturia is our defensive specialist, but he's a legit "baby-faced assassin" as Brey hilariously puts it - he'll lock down his man, and then he'll shock everyone in the arena when he drives it in and converts a nice layup.

Past teams were also much more finesse-oriented: when McAlarney and Abromaitis were on, it was a thing of beauty. Problem was, they were never on in the tournament. Harangody and Cooley could wrestle with the best of them in the Big East, but the whistles came too fast in the tournament. On this team, Brey finally has capable bench players in Beachem (best is yet to come) and Colson (much more than a spark off the bench, he's like an instant inferno sometimes haha).

If you go through these pages, I'm probably on here every March complaining about the team. Probably a lot of criticism of Brey too. However, I want to make clear that I'm a huge fan of Mike Brey - he's a great representative of the school, he's an awesome guy who loves interacting with students, and he's been very loyal to ND. I'm really hoping our lack of tournament success has been solved now that he's actually bringing in solid athletes. Nobody expects ND to be a consistent Elite 8 team, but we should be a fairly regular Sweet 16 team. Upsets happen, everybody who watches college basketball knows that, but we should be reaching the Sweet 16 more often than not. The future is bright with Jackson, Beachem, Vasturia, Colson, and Auguste as our starting lineup next year. I am notoriously pessimistic about ND's tournament chances among my friends, but I have ND going to the Elite 8 and only losing to the professional team that scumbag piece of trash Calipari hired.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

This thread is the absolute greatest to go back and re-read. Fantastic discussion going back 4 years to the FSU loss.

Got the athletes this year? I think Jackson is the difference.


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[Irish Insanity]

Got the athletes this year? I think Jackson is the difference.


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I think Jackson is very underrated.

 

[Irish#1]

Less than four hours to tip.

GO IRISH!