Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

[ACamp1900]

The idea that it landed somewhere seems like a real long shot at this point doesn't it? I mean no word from anyone, about anything, all of this time??

 

[Emcee77]

Saw this theory today ...
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

As the headline suggests, it's disappointingly ordinary. Electrical fire.

Might be compelling though ... it's strengthened by the clarification from Malaysian authorities that the ACARS system didn't shut down at 1:07 a.m. but some time in the 30 minutes after 1:07 a.m., perhaps at 1:22 a.m., simultaneously with the transponders, which undermines the key evidence of pilot hijinks.

The question I would have for the author of this piece is how likely it is that there could simply have been a fire and the pilot was turning for Langkawi when the crew and passengers became incapacitated, as he argues, and the plane still ended up on or near one of the arcs where the last satellite "handshake" took place six hours later. He doesn't address that issue, unless I missed it.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The idea that it landed somewhere seems like a real long shot at this point doesn't it? I mean no word from anyone, about anything, all of this time??

It probably is a long shot, but it shouldn't be ruled out until evidence proves otherwise. There's a 300 million square mile search, involving multiple countries and fleets going on and not one piece of debris has appeared. That in itself should put doubt in anyone's mind who thinks this is a simple open/shut case of a deadly crash.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I've seen several news reports and read several articles. I'm not as educated on the whole situation as many are as most of my info came from reporters who themselves had opinions that I'm sure affected their reporting. But, the only likely explanation at this point is that it was hijacked by the pilots. Now the reasoning, I still have no clue. Could have been cargo, could be to secure it for future terrorism use. There are several countries involved in the search, which is good, and bad. Great in terms of searching for the plane or its parts, bad as in there are so many different assumptions by so many parties and so much info so sift thru. Some countries in the area may simply withholding info about their radars to not give out to much info on their defense systems. Scary with todays technology a massive plane with hundreds of people can disappear. For all you with knowledge of our military and protection, do we have shit ready to shoot anything down off the coast that doesn't belong?

 

[Big23Head]

Saw this theory today ...
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

As the headline suggests, it's disappointingly ordinary. Electrical fire.

Might be compelling though ... it's strengthened by the clarification from Malaysian authorities that the ACARS system didn't shut down at 1:07 a.m. but some time in the 30 minutes after 1:07 a.m., perhaps at 1:22 a.m., simultaneously with the transponders, which undermines the key evidence of pilot hijinks.

The question I would have for the author of this piece is how likely it is that there could simply have been a fire and the pilot was turning for Langkawi when the crew and passengers became incapacitated, as he argues, and the plane still ended up on or near one of the arcs where the last satellite "handshake" took place six hours later. He doesn't address that issue, unless I missed it.

I found this compelling. The plane would have continued southwest on autopilot according to the author after the crew and all were incapacitated. It would put the plane near the southern arc from the satellite IMO from looking at the maps. Or really close.

 

[GATTACA!]

I found this compelling. The plane would have continued southwest on autopilot according to the author after the crew and all were incapacitated. It would put the plane near the southern arc from the satellite IMO from looking at the maps. Or really close.

My only question with that is why the plane would be set to that waypoint in the first place. Wouldnt you set your autopilot back the way you came, not out over the ocean?

 

[Andy in Sactown]

I've seen several news reports and read several articles. I'm not as educated on the whole situation as many are as most of my info came from reporters who themselves had opinions that I'm sure affected their reporting. But, the only likely explanation at this point is that it was hijacked by the pilots. Now the reasoning, I still have no clue. Could have been cargo, could be to secure it for future terrorism use. There are several countries involved in the search, which is good, and bad. Great in terms of searching for the plane or its parts, bad as in there are so many different assumptions by so many parties and so much info so sift thru. Some countries in the area may simply withholding info about their radars to not give out to much info on their defense systems. Scary with todays technology a massive plane with hundreds of people can disappear. For all you with knowledge of our military and protection, do we have shit ready to shoot anything down off the coast that doesn't belong?

You needn't be concerned. The United States Navy has you covered. Our sailors on duty are standing the watch.

I can respond more specifically, but I don't want to derail the thread. PM me if you have real coastal defense questions.

 

[Big23Head]

My only question with that is why the plane would be set to that waypoint in the first place. Wouldnt you set your autopilot back the way you came, not out over the ocean?

Apparent closer airport with easier terrain/obstacles to head toward.

 

[GATTACA!]

Apparent closer airport with easier terrain/obstacles to head toward.

But then they turned back Northeast? Also doesn't explain the fluctuation in altitude. Not saying your wrong, just poking holes bc every theory has gaping ones right now.

 

[Big23Head]

But then they turned back Northeast? Also doesn't explain the fluctuation in altitude. Not saying your wrong, just poking holes bc every theory has gaping ones right now.

It didn't turn back NE from anything I've read. Altitude change was a last effort to choke the possible fire out due to less oxygen. This was in the article.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370........hide and go seek champion of the world.

 

[Emcee77]

But then they turned back Northeast? Also doesn't explain the fluctuation in altitude. Not saying your wrong, just poking holes bc every theory has gaping ones right now.

No, under the fire theory, the assumption is that the plane turned west as part of a pre-programmed alternate/emergency route to Langkawi airport while the pilots and crew fought the fire. The assumption regarding the change in altitude is that at some point the plane went up to the top of the 777's altitude range to try to starve the fire of oxygen. As the theory goes, the crew was unable to put out the fire, the crew and passengers passed out due to lack of oxygen or loss of cabin pressure or CO/smoke inhalation or something like that, and the plane continued on for six hours in the southwesterly direction it had started on in turning for Langkawi, ultimately crossing the southern arc where it last pinged the satellite, and then crashed in the Indian Ocean.

I think it's as likely as anything, but as GATTACA says it's hardly an airtight theory. For me to be convinced some expert is going to have to draw me a map showing that the angles are such that the plane could plausibly have started toward Langkawi and then crossed the arc where the last satellite handshake could have come from at just the right time given its likely airspeed. I can't buy it yet but I can't dismiss it either.

 

[woolybug25]

No, under the fire theory, the assumption is that the plane turned west as part of a pre-programmed alternate/emergency route to Langkawi airport while the pilots and crew fought the fire. The assumption regarding the change in altitude is that at some point the plane went up to the top of the 777's altitude range to try to starve the fire of oxygen. As the theory goes, the crew was unable to put out the fire, the crew and passengers passed out due to lack of oxygen or loss of cabin pressure or CO/smoke inhalation or something like that, and the plane continued on for six hours in the southwesterly direction it had started on in turning for Langkawi, ultimately crossing the southern arc where it last pinged the satellite, and then crashed in the Indian Ocean.

I think it's as likely as anything, but as GATTACA says it's hardly an airtight theory. For me to be convinced some expert is going to have to draw me a map showing that the angles are such that the plane could plausibly have started toward Langkawi and then crossed the arc where the last satellite handshake could have come from at just the right time given its likely airspeed. I can't buy it yet but I can't dismiss it either.

This would also explain why out of a couple hundred people, no one made a cell phone call.

To be honest, I was one of the first people that truly thought this was a hijacking. After reading that article, i'm leaning to the fire. It would be a damn shame if it was a fire and the whole world is accusing the pilots, who probably died trying to save the plane, are accused of being terrorists.

 

[Ndaccountant]

This would also explain why out of a couple hundred people, no one made a cell phone call.

To be honest, I was one of the first people that truly thought this was a hijacking. After reading that article, i'm leaning to the fire. It would be a damn shame if it was a fire and the whole world is accusing the pilots, who probably died trying to save the plane, are accused of being terrorists.

wasn't there a report yesterday that said the airplane turned before the "good night" communication? If that report is true, you would think that really throws a wrench into this theory.

 

[woolybug25]

wasn't there a report yesterday that said the airplane turned before the "good night" communication? If that report is true, you would think that really throws a wrench into this theory.

I didn't see that anywhere. link?

 

[Emcee77]

wasn't there a report yesterday that said the airplane turned before the "good night" communication? If that report is true, you would think that really throws a wrench into this theory.

Well, the report was that we can tell from the last ACARS transmission at 1:07 a.m. that the turn to the west back over peninsular Malaysia was pre-programmed into the flight computer PRIOR to 1:07 a.m.. The breezy "all right, good night" came at 1:19 a.m., at least 12 minutes after the turn to the west was entered into the computer (possibly hours after).

This may seem to undermine the theory that the turn to the west was a reaction to an emergency, but it may not ... some experts explained that the pilots could have pre-programmed an alternate emergency route in addition to the primary route. The turn to the west was simply the alternate route that the pilots pre-programmed for just this sort of emergency -- and by all accounts the older pilot, a complete aviation nerd, would have been just the sort of pilot to do that sort of thing. The Goodfellow piece suggests that kind of foresight is not uncommon, anyway.

 

[woolybug25]

Well, the report was that we can tell from the last ACARS transmission at 1:07 a.m. that the turn to the west back over peninsular Malaysia was pre-programmed into the flight computer PRIOR to 1:07 a.m.. The breezy "all right, good night" came at 1:19 a.m., at least 12 minutes after the turn to the west was entered into the computer (possibly hours after).

This may seem to undermine the theory that the turn to the west was a reaction to an emergency, but it may not ... some experts explained that the pilots could have pre-programmed an alternate emergency route in addition to the primary route. The turn to the west was simply the alternate route that the pilots pre-programmed for just this sort of emergency -- and by all accounts the older pilot, a complete aviation nerd, would have been just the sort of pilot to do that sort of thing. The Goodfellow piece suggests that kind of foresight is not uncommon, anyway.

In the article, the author mentions that it is VERY common for pilots to be constantly updating themselves on the closest airstrips as a precaution. The Malaysian pilot was very experienced and it would be suprising if he wasn't prudent with his precautions.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Well, the report was that we can tell from the last ACARS transmission at 1:07 a.m. that the turn to the west back over peninsular Malaysia was pre-programmed into the flight computer PRIOR to 1:07 a.m.. The breezy "all right, good night" came at 1:19 a.m., at least 12 minutes after the turn to the west was entered into the computer (possibly hours after).

This may seem to undermine the theory that the turn to the west was a reaction to an emergency, but it may not ... some experts explained that the pilots could have pre-programmed an alternate emergency route in addition to the primary route. The turn to the west was simply the alternate route that the pilots pre-programmed for just this sort of emergency -- and by all accounts the older pilot, a complete aviation nerd, would have been just the sort of pilot to do that sort of thing. The Goodfellow piece suggests that kind of foresight is not uncommon, anyway.

Thanks for the insights.

The whole thing is weird. For the sake of closure, I hope they find the plane and put this to bed. However, I read somewhere else that if the flight truly went on for 4 hours after the plane turned back, the black box wouldn't record the reasoning for doing so. Apparently it only captures the last hour or so.

 

[connor_in]

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The fire theory is very convincing. However, the trajectory back towards the airport on Langkawi has been included in the search area, no? If the plane did in fact crash and they are in fact searching that area, why haven't they found a shred of debris or oil? That's the one part that has me baffled...if this plane did in fact crash, why on earth has there been no discovery of debris?

Edit: My own quick search for airports in that area show quite a few possible locations. The pilot in the interview says that Langkawi would have been the easiest route. But that doesn't mean the pilots actually selected that route...Why wouldn't they just select the Pattani or Narathiwat Airports? They're even closer...

 

[BobD]

I give up guessing .

It must have been this

 

[GATTACA!]

It didn't turn back NE from anything I've read. Altitude change was a last effort to choke the possible fire out due to less oxygen. This was in the article.

That second turn.

 

[Grahambo]

This would also explain why out of a couple hundred people, no one made a cell phone call.

To be honest, I was one of the first people that truly thought this was a hijacking. After reading that article, i'm leaning to the fire. It would be a damn shame if it was a fire and the whole world is accusing the pilots, who probably died trying to save the plane, are accused of being terrorists.

That's the world we live in today. People always jumping to conclusions and thinking the worst.

 

[irish1958]

Woolybug25: "This would also explain why out of a couple hundred people, no one made a cell phone call. "
And, of course, the fact that the nearest cellphone tower was hundreds of miles away might have had something to do with it.

 

[woolybug25]

Woolybug25: "This would also explain why out of a couple hundred people, no one made a cell phone call. "
And, of course, the fact that the nearest cellphone tower was hundreds of miles away might have had something to do with it.

smarty pants...

Unlike in urban areas, where cell phone antennae are typically pointed down toward the ground, cell towers in rural areas are up to 30-45 meters high and are often pointed at an angle meant to cover wider distances.

So if you're up in the sky, you can receive the signal as well, Rojas said.

"If the airplane were flying over northern Malaysia or southern Thailand -- basically the rural area -- then it's very possible that a cell tower could register the signal from the phones, assuming they were on," said Rojas.

Why were there no phone calls from MH370? - CNN.com

Also... this plane was equipped with air phones in business class and free wifi throughout the entire plane.

 

[Emcee77]

That second turn.

I don't know how confident authorities are about this projected path though. Everyone seems to agree that the plane turned west from its original route to Beijing and flew back across peninsular Malaysia, but no one seems to agree about what happened after that, and a lot of maps I've seen don't have that hairpin turn. I think maybe that part is based on Thai radar data that authorities aren't sure came from this particular plane? Not sure.

 

[PLACforever]

Let's be honest here, its been twelve days and the plane hasn't been found, Obviously it was aliens.

 

[tko]

Let's be honest here, its been twelve days and the plane hasn't been found, Obviously it was aliens.

Thank you, preach on.

 

[notredomer23]

Now they're saying it could be off the western coast of Australia? This gets more and more bizarre.

 

[ACamp1900]

Now they're saying it could be off the western coast of Australia? This gets more and more bizarre.

At this poibnt anything short of it flying around on fumes is possible...

Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Drastically Narrows - ABC News

This new turn does imply they may have something though... or they at least have reason to believe they do.