Upshot for the Rest of the Class (2014 Edition)

[Crazy Balki]

This won't be a top ten class. Don't know what would make you think it is.

That being said, we're not even saying that we aren't happy with the class. It's a well rounded class that pairs well with the last two cycles. But it clearly lacks star power and is far from as good as we thought it was going to be 6 months ago.

Maybe this...

2014 Football Recruiting Team Rankings

Or this...

Yahoo Sports: Rivals.com 2014 Team Recruiting Rankings

Or this...

Scout.com: Football Recruiting


I don't see any way ND finishes outside the top 10. None of the current commits are at any risk of decommitting (Hill was the closest, but his dad and the coaching staff seemed to have put those concerns to rest very quickly). In addition, ND still has quite a few big names on the board that they are very likely to land or compete for (Quick, IM, Alexander, Cage, Sawyers, JuJu, etc.). So, I don't see how you think they finish lower than 10. I'd say the odds of them finishing in the top 5 is low, but finishing at least at 10 is pretty much a given.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Quick is a realistic recruit that could pop for us on NSD. So is Terrence Alexander, if he doesn't decide soon. So is Saywers. So is McKenzie.

Come on guys, the world isn't ending here. It is not even for sure that Hill is taking that visit yet. Let BK have his in home, and we will see what happens from there.

If we keep Hill, get one more DT, Alexander and a WR - to me that is a top ten class in the country easily.

Exactly, people need to chill the fuck out. Seriously getting on my last nerve. I think we keep Hill. Way the situation is sounding, even if he does visit Texas, the odds of him flipping so suddenly are very slim. The thoughts of him playing for ND are implanted in his head. Too late for Texas in my opinion. Sawyers and Cage visit next weekend. Could possibly get both, but I think Cage is more realistic. Alexander is as you said, the longer he waits, the more likely he is Irish. McKenzie is pretty much Irish. He visited Ole Miss and Florida, but when he returns to South Bend, he'll remember why he committed in the first place. Quick is definitely going to be a coin-flip NSD moment, so not much else to do but wait and see.

 

[Ironman8]

Exactly, people need to chill the fuck out. Seriously getting on my last nerve. I think we keep Hill. Way the situation is sounding, even if he does visit Texas, the odds of him flipping so suddenly are very slim. The thoughts of him playing for ND are implanted in his head. Too late for Texas in my opinion. Sawyers and Cage visit next weekend. Could possibly get both, but I think Cage is more realistic. Alexander is as you said, the longer he waits, the more likely he is Irish. McKenzie is pretty much Irish. He visited Ole Miss and Florida, but when he returns to South Bend, he'll remember why he committed in the first place. Quick is definitely going to be a coin-flip NSD moment, so not much else to do but wait and see.

If some of them are a little too pessimistic, then you are a little too optimistic brother haha. IM is definitely not 'pretty much Irish' right now, and Alexander is enjoying his Ole Miss visit right now. Also, we 100% won't get both DTs, but one of them is definitely possible. Agree with you though that Quick is a coinflip.

 

[woolybug25]

Maybe this...

2014 Football Recruiting Team Rankings

Or this...

Yahoo Sports: Rivals.com 2014 Team Recruiting Rankings

Or this...

Scout.com: Football Recruiting


I don't see any way ND finishes outside the top 10. None of the current commits are at any risk of decommitting (Hill was the closest, but his dad and the coaching staff seemed to have put those concerns to rest very quickly). In addition, ND still has quite a few big names on the board that they are very likely to land or compete for (Quick, IM, Alexander, Cage, Sawyers, JuJu, etc.). So, I don't see how you think they finish lower than 10. I'd say the odds of them finishing in the top 5 is low, but finishing at least at 10 is pretty much a given.

I don't mean this in a mean way, but do you follow how the top ten usually unfolds? It changes drastically by NSD. Even the most optimistic rankings have us in the backend of the top ten. Those same rankings don't keep in mind the moves teams like USC are about to make. We very well may not lead for any additional recruits an might only add a couple poorly ranked recruits, which will negatively effect our overall class ranking. That is all assuming that we keep Hill, which is questionable.

Holding on to a top ten class is going to be very difficult and require us landing a guy we, by most accounts, don't lead for. We would also need to hold onto our current recruits. The top 5 you mentioned... Totally unrealistic.

I'll bet you every vbuck I have that we don't land a consensus top 5 and 500m that we don't land a consensus top 10.

We will have a nice class, especially paired with our current roster. But your opinion of our class may be different than reality.

 

[stlnd01]

This is a pretty good class. Would be better if we keep Hill, land McKenzie and Alexander and one more of the DTs. Would be even better if we pull out Quick or (somehow) JuJu. That might get us from borderline Top Ten to borderline Top Five.

But even if only a couple of things happen we have a lot of really solid ballplayers here. Not star power, I agree, but a lot of kids who fit what we're trying to do and fill holes in our roster. On top of last year's very good class, I think we're set up pretty well.

 

[stlnd01]

We will have a nice class, especially paired with our current roster. But your opinion of our class may be different than reality.

I think it's fairly well established at this point that Sean views the world of recruiting through some deep-green-colored glasses.

 

[woolybug25]

Also... Lol on you saying that Cage and Sawyers are big time recruits. They both would be great additions to the class and could be good players here, but in regards to rankings, they are definitely not "big names".

 

[Irish8248]

Who cares about a NSD top 10, the rankings on Feb 6 mean shit when kids transfer after a year or two Or if certain players don't pan out

If were in the range on a consistent basis and filling needs then we are competing like we should

 

[Redbar]

Who cares about a NSD top 10, the rankings on Feb 6 mean shit when kids transfer after a year or two Or if certain players don't pan out

If were in the range on a consistent basis and filling needs then we are competing like we should

This is where I am.

 

[CraigKrenzel]

Who cares about a NSD top 10, the rankings on Feb 6 mean shit when kids transfer after a year or two Or if certain players don't pan out

If were in the range on a consistent basis and filling needs then we are competing like we should

Yup.

 

[Irishman77]

Most of this doesn't matter. The recruiting only nut jobs will get a hard dose of football this fall when we see golson. Minor minor details here folks. We get attached to some of these guys solely in our own time spent reading about them. Zero correlation to football. We haven't had coaches like this since holtz and Rees can no longer take a sap. We are about to kick some......

We have an awesome class!

Golson!!!

 

[pkt77242]

Most of this doesn't matter. The recruiting only nut jobs will get a hard dose of football this fall when we see golson. Minor minor details here folks. We get attached to some of these guys solely in our own time spent reading about them. Zero correlation to football. We haven't had coaches like this since holtz and Rees can no longer take a sap. We are about to kick some......

We have an awesome class!

Golson!!!

The worry isn't about next year, it is about 3-4 years from now when this class is Juniors and Seniors. While I think this class is solid and could be very good, it isn't elite either.

 

[jmurphy75]

Gotta ask.... What last minute surprise for ND are you talking about?

Troy, EV (even though ot didn't work out),Neil, Ishaq, guys most of us didn't expect. This year might be Quick, or JUJU or someone we haven't heard much from yet. I know call me the eternal optomist but recruiting is like the wild west and you just never know what's going to happen. BTW I think Hill stays.

 

[CraigKrenzel]

The worry isn't about next year, it is about 3-4 years from now when this class is Juniors and Seniors. While I think this class is solid and could be very good, it isn't elite either.

Sure, but that you can't say that (elite vs. very good vs. good) with any degree of certainty until those kids are juniors and seniors is the point. There are so few "can't miss" prospects that it gets pretty surreal to be fretting over everyone else in the mushy middle of high-3 and middle-4 and the like...

 

[woolybug25]

Troy, EV (even though ot didn't work out),Neil, Ishaq, guys most of us didn't expect. This year might be Quick, or JUJU or someone we haven't heard much from yet. I know call me the eternal optomist but recruiting is like the wild west and you just never know what's going to happen. BTW I think Hill stays.

Maybe I'm recalling differently, but I don't think any of those guys making their decision on NSD. I mean, none. That's before the fact that two of the four didn't stick. We have never been a team that closed on NSD.

 

[rocket66]

Troy was an NSD commit for sure. I remember seeing the coaches going crazy when the fax came in. EV was as well, as he announced NSD night. Neal was a week or so after NSD if I recall correctly.

 

[GoldenIsThyFame]

Maybe I'm recalling differently, but I don't think any of those guys making their decision on NSD. I mean, none. That's before the fact that two of the four didn't stick. We have never been a team that closed on NSD.

Troy an EV were on NSD

 

[Irishman77]

Troy was an NSD commit for sure. I remember seeing the coaches going crazy when the fax came in. EV was as well, as he announced NSD night. Neal was a week or so after NSD if I recall correctly.

Neal was in april

 

[Ndaccountant]

Neal was in april

Manti

 

[Irish8248]

Maybe I'm recalling differently, but I don't think any of those guys making their decision on NSD. I mean, none. That's before the fact that two of the four didn't stick. We have never been a team that closed on NSD.

Saaaaaay what? Last 2 years we've closed like champions. Just go back to any profile and look at all the Diaco 4Am coffee jokes or BK/Alford have the last visit to seal the deal references

 

[woolybug25]

Did Weis ever have any?

Don't know why I recalled that differently.

 

[woolybug25]

Saaaaaay what? Last 2 years we've closed like champions. Just go back to any profile and look at all the Diaco 4Am coffee jokes or BK/Alford have the last visit to seal the deal references

We were talking NSD in particular. No one was saying that they have closed on big prospects.

This all started with the main point that I don't see us closing on any big prospects this NSD. Maybe we get IM into the fold, but I'm not counting the chickens.

 

[CanadalovesND]

Did Weis ever have any?

Don't know why I recalled that differently.

Te'o, Toma (IIRC, was day after NSD), and Kapron Lewis-Moore.

 

[Ironman8]

Deion Walker

 

[CanadalovesND]

Deion Walker

He wasn't a NSD commit, he committed to ND at the UA All-America Game.

 

[jmurphy75]

Maybe I'm recalling differently, but I don't think any of those guys making their decision on NSD. I mean, none. That's before the fact that two of the four didn't stick. We have never been a team that closed on NSD.[/QUOTE

Never in my post did I say on NSD, I said "last minute" to be more specific I meant in the last leg of recruiting, after the NC game.

 

[woolybug25]

Maybe I'm recalling differently, but I don't think any of those guys making their decision on NSD. I mean, none. That's before the fact that two of the four didn't stick. We have never been a team that closed on NSD.[/QUOTE

Never in my post did I say on NSD, I said "last minute" to be more specific I meant in the last leg of recruiting, after the NC game.

Then you should have been more specific considering you were the one that jumped into the conversation where we were discussing NSD surprises. Without any scope, how were we suppose to know what you meant?

It's all good, man.

 

[irishfan]

So many ppl giving up on this class already. Witflong just said yesterday he wouldn't be surprised if Hill doesn't visit Texas, we seemingly lead for Alexander, we seem likely to get at least one more DT, IM still has to visit and his coaches want him to come to ND, and by all accounts the coaching staff feels confident about Quick and JuJu. This is actually one of the few NSDs where it seems like we could close well for once.

 

[woolybug25]

So many ppl giving up on this class already. Witflong just said yesterday he wouldn't be surprised if Hill doesn't visit Texas, we seemingly lead for Alexander, we seem likely to get at least one more DT, IM still has to visit and his coaches want him to come to ND, and by all accounts the coaching staff feels confident about Quick and JuJu. This is actually one of the few NSDs where it seems like we could close well for once.

- Hill, by his own previous comments, is gone if he visits UT. That's just my opinion.
- I'm not sold that loading up on project DT's is a huge plus.
- Go read JuJu's thread. If we landed him, it would be the biggest surprise I ever saw in recruiting. Every single sign points to USC. It's one of those situations where I would love to say, "crazier things have happened". But in regards to positive surprises, they haven't.
- I'm not saying that this isn't a good class, because it is. It just could have been so much better.

 

[pkt77242]

Sure, but that you can't say that (elite vs. very good vs. good) with any degree of certainty until those kids are juniors and seniors is the point. There are so few "can't miss" prospects that it gets pretty surreal to be fretting over everyone else in the mushy middle of high-3 and middle-4 and the like...

Yes and no. There is no doubt that higher rated prospects from HS are more likely to get drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Star Power: How recruiting rankings hold up at the top of the NFL Draft - Dr. Saturday - NCAAF Blog - Yahoo! Sports

So for rough calculations for the period of 2007 - 2011 using the provided link.
5* 13% were drafter in the first round
4* 3.8% were drafted in the first round
3* .8%
2* .3%

So I would say that while it is hard to know exactly which recruits will pan out, there is no denying that the higher rated a prospect is the greater their chance of becoming a first round pick. So in theory the more higher rated prospects you sign the better their chance of being better. Obviously you can never fully know how good as class is till 3-4 years later but that doesn't change the fact that the higher ranked your recruits are (which will raise your team's ranking) the better chance of the turning out to be great players.

Now to the assumptions I made in this post. First I understand that being in the first round is not a guarantee of a great college career and likewise many very good college football players do not get drafted in the first round.
2nd. The article used for both recruiting and drafting the time period of 2007-211 which doesn't make a whole lot of sense since the players drafted in 2007 don't overlap with the recruiting class shown, but it was the best I had to work with.