ND Oversold on Kelly?

[Ndaccountant]

I never said those plays would have guaranteed victories for the opposition. I'm saying they COULD have led to victories for the opposition. That's also why I said "IF two of those three went the other way..." not "all three SHOULD have gone the other way."

Pitt would have been awarded a first down and the odds that they missed another field goal from that distance (or even closer, given that they had three more snaps to advance) is miniscule. I can't listen to any argument saying that win was legitimate when this photo exists:

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/collegefootball/ndsamejerseys.jpg

We beat SC by "more than a score" based on a garbage-time field goal after the goal-line stand. If the USC fullback catches that ball, the late field goal never happens (yeah yeah, butterfly effect, anything could have happened). A touchdown for them would have put them up by 1. Your point is well received about Stanford but, once again, if we were a super duper NCG-caliber team, we wouldn't have been winning games on what amounted to 50-50 coin-toss plays.



Yes, "a win is a win" as far as our record is concerned. But it's also fair to evaluate a COACH based on more than win-loss record. A pitcher in baseball gets the "win" if he leaves in the top of the 6th after giving up 10 runs, so long as his team scored 11+. You can still say "the pitcher sucked today," even though "a win is a win."



See above.

Wish l could re-write history too. Definitely would change the outcome of Saturday night......

Notre Dame GOAL-LINE STAND vs USC and the dumbest coach in America... Lane Kiffin - YouTube

 

[wizards8507]

I am glad that you asked about my expectations of Kelly coming into the season. With EG, I thought this team was at 10 wins, and the BCS. Without, I adjusted it to 8. So the expectation is pretty well aligned with performance thus far. We have an opportunity to pick up the 8th win over the course of the last two games. So, they are in line with where I expected.

Why is that acceptable? If we had returned our starting QB, you would have been "okay" with getting two games worse than we were last season? With our backup QB, you're okay with a four-game dropoff?

 

[wizards8507]

Wish l could re-write history too. Definitely would change the outcome of Saturday night......

Notre Dame GOAL-LINE STAND vs USC and the dumbest coach in America... Lane Kiffin - YouTube

I stand corrected.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Why is that acceptable? If we had returned our starting QB, you would have been "okay" with getting two games worse than we were last season? With our backup QB, you're okay with a four-game dropoff?

Yeah, but my perspective is not so much that we would have been worse. We had a difficult schedule this year, and we lost a lot of talent on defense. We had some youth to break in and have them learn on the fly. I agree with many other guys on here, our schedule does not have the early cupcakes to allow for errors in development. Still, I thought we were talented enough to win 10 games.

And for the record, I am fine with a 9-12 win season with runs at the title every few years (the LSU or Ohio State (Tressel) formula). That puts you in the relevant national picture year in and year out. Less than that and you fall off the radar, which we have this year.

 

[gkIrish]

Start calling now. I'll give you all my vbucks if ND is 10-3 next year.

I actually forgot how crazy difficult our schedule is next year. I'll amend my original statement to say that I expect our team to be competitive in every game but the FSU game next year. And I expect at least 9 wins including the bowl. Our schedule is way too difficult to expect 10 wins.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Keep in mind the Willingham effect. Weis won with that was left of Willinghams recruits and then had a bare pantry come the 3-9 season. Personally the 3-9 season was lost anyways. Put in Clausen and let it roll. I think it was the best thing at the time.




Really? Could realistically be sitting here with 8 losses as well (Only counting 1 score games). You can't play that game without looking the other way.



Start calling now. I'll give you all my vbucks if ND is 10-3 next year.



Agreed.



I disagree with the bolded. I think we roll someone in a BCS game.



ND will never be elite again. That is not negativity that is reality and based on what ND has to deal with that other schools don't. If Kelly stays longer than a couple more years I believe ND will achieve the 8-10 win average and every once in a blue moon when luck is on its side it'll push for a NC. And I'm ok with that. It starts with getting back to pounding the teams you should pound. Navy, Purdue, Pitt. Once that starts happening regularly then I'll be on board.

Until then I am just going to enjoy the games, even as maddening as the last one was.

So back to back underwhelming seasons leaves you where? How can you possibly accept that in year five?

 

[irishpat183]

I used the same eyeball test you used to assess our run game.

And our run game still hasn't found consistancy..

 

[ACamp1900]

ND needs to hire someone like acamp1900... That guy always brings hardware to South Bend in NCAA....

 

[NDohio]

I will say that I believe there was a large learning curve for BK when it came to recruiting a ND kind of kid. I think he whiffed in his first two classes but approaches recruiting differently now. I truly believe there will be better(not perfect) retention going forward and this will help immensely with the depth issues we currently have.

Here's the thing that I see with this thread. Everyone want to see BK improve on his shortcomings. Some do not see that improvement happening(or are impatient with the timeline), others think BK is improving on his shortcomings and are OK with the timeline even though it is talking longer, then there are a few that will never be happy until ND is in the national championship hunt every single year.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think one of the main reasons Stanford has become "elite" is because they have an identity. I'll admit, that falls fully on the coaches and I wish/hope BK gets that part in order. It doesn't matter who Stanford plays, they get after them. They don't get cute and out scheme. They attack other teams. I love that and wish ND did more of it.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Folks, the schedule next year includes:

@Florida St
Michigan
@USC
Stanford
@ASU
Louisville

Those are 6 legitimate programs and 6 potential losses. If this team doesn't significantly improve from this year to next, we are looking at another disappointing 8-4 type season. If that happens in year 5, what will the fanbase's prevailing outlook on Kelly be? Could be scary

 

[irishpat183]

Folks, the schedule next year includes:

@Florida St
Michigan
@USC
Stanford
@ASU
Louisville

Those are 6 legitimate programs and 6 potential losses. If this team doesn't significantly improve from this year to next, we are looking at another disappointing 8-4 type season. If that happens in year 5, what will the fanbase's prevailing outlook on Kelly be? Could be scary

****, if we don't improve...8-4 will be a successful season looking at that schedule.

 

[irishpat183]

I think one of the main reasons Stanford has become "elite" is because they have an identity. I'll admit, that falls fully on the coaches and I wish/hope BK gets that part in order. It doesn't matter who Stanford plays, they get after them. They don't get cute and out scheme. They attack other teams. I love that and wish ND did more of it.

YES!

Bama, Ore, FSU...same thing.


You know exactly who you're playing and what to expect when you take the field, and they still win.

 

[anarin]

I'm really trying to understand the point here.

So much bitching and whining about this team, do you guys want another coach or not?

Yes? Then who?
No? Then what needs to be done?

 

[irishpat183]

ND needs to hire someone like acamp1900... That guy always brings hardware to South Bend in NCAA....

Or Irishpat.

Half the team will quit, but they're pussies anyway.

 

[irishpat183]

I'm really trying to understand the point here.

So much bitching and whining about this team, do you guys want another coach or not?

Yes? Then who?
No? Then what needs to be done?

Saban

 

[dre1919]

Kelly is basically Willingham...


(Drops mic, leaves room and watches inferno from outside safety)

Hahahahaha. Unfortunately, you are correct Sir. And really, it's not a dig at Kelly...Willingham was a good coach and can be in the right element (like a low pressure position in the PAC-10 like Willingham had at then Stanford). But the reality of the problem is Notre Dame is unlike anywhere else. I would venture to say the expectations at Notre Dame are only perhaps rivaled by Alabama right now where every season it's the national championship or complete failure. Only problem with that is it's much easier to do that at an Alabama than some place like Notre Dame. Yes, Kelly got us there last year but in reality an enormous amount of breaks had to come our way and what happened when we did get there? Same thing that happens every year in a BCS bowl. Whoopty-do.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'm really trying to understand the point here.

So much bitching and whining about this team, do you guys want another coach or not?

Yes? Then who?
No? Then what needs to be done?

BK is the right man for the job. I just think he needs to stay the course and take a look at what Stanford does. Simple as that. You don't need Andrew Luck behind center to be elite. BK preaches "attention to detail," but lately I wonder if he's lost his way. Get back to basics, Coach! He's our guy. If he leaves, this starts all over.

 

[anarin]

Saban

Ok, realistically. I mean you are one the main people on this board that gets their panties in a wad whenever the team punts.

And for you and everyone else that jumps on this "we suck, kelly has to go, diaco is the worst, martin has no idea, longo isnt doing his job" bandwagon; I just say, give us a solution!!!!!

 

[wizards8507]

Folks, the schedule next year includes:

@Florida St
Michigan
@USC
Stanford
@ASU
Louisville

Those are 6 legitimate programs and 6 potential losses. If this team doesn't significantly improve from this year to next, we are looking at another disappointing 8-4 type season. If that happens in year 5, what will the fanbase's prevailing outlook on Kelly be? Could be scary

You're assuming that the rest of our games next year are gimmes. Those aren't just "potential losses," those could very well be "probable losses." Would you really be SHOCKED if we went 1-5 against those teams and then dropped another one to Wake Forest, North Carolina, Northwestern, or Purdue?

 

[N_D_Fighting_Irish]

Interesting points from Eric Hansen:


ERIC HANSEN South Bend Tribune ehansen@sbtinfo.com |
Posted: Monday, November 11, 2013 12:00 am

SOUTH BEND -- It was not the lunatic fringe this time with the loudest, most-demoralized, most-agitated voices.

The mainstream wanted — no, demanded — answers from the man who took Notre Dame football to the closest it has been to a national title in two decades just 10 months ago as to why game No. 49 of the coach Brian Kelly Era could reek so much of the three failed regimes that followed Lou Holtz’s largely hallowed 11-year run.

In the light of day on Sunday, then 24th-ranked Notre Dame’s whimper into exile from this year’s national posteason big stage the night before, a 28-21 unceremonious loss to an underdog Pitt team (5-4) that had little on the line other than exacting spite, somehow stung more than when it was actually unfolding.

“There are no big-picture things,” Kelly framed in a subdued, almost morose tone late Saturday night. “These are just fundamentals of the game of football that were not attended to in the manner that they needed to be.”

The questions that chased him indirectly via social media and through a reporter’s inbox teeming with venom and venting seemed to reflect that.

Why didn’t freshman running back Tarean Folston, last week’s seemingly emerging star, get more than four carries?

What happened to Corey Robinson?

Was it really smart to redshirt Malik Zaire?

Why does ND go empty backfield every play inside the 20?

Gone unaddressed was why did Notre Dame (7-3) run the ball only six plays (for 10 yards) after halftime after amassing 128 rushing yards on 18 carries (7.1 per carry) in the first half when it built a 14-7 lead? It even made sense from a defensive standpoint, given that arguably the best defensive player on the field Saturday night, Irish junior defensive end Stephon Tuitt, had been ejected for targeting seven seconds into the second quarter.

On top of that, Kelly didn’t know how much he could push fellow starting D-linemen Louis Nix and Sheldon Day — one coming back from an extended injury, the other playing through a chronic one. So instead of keeping a depleted defense off the field by hogging the ball and owning the clock, the Irish coaching staff allowed Pitt a 18:45-to-11:15 time-of-possession advantage in the second half to do just the opposite.

And the Irish were playing with the lead, or at least tied, until the second Tommy Rees interception of the fourth quarter and 34th of his career set up a five-yard Pitt scoring drive that produced the go-ahead TD at the 9:36 mark of the fourth quarter.

Kelly’s regularly scheduled Sunday postmortem with the media had already been scratched earlier, the reason given that the team’s late arrival from Pittsburgh would create a logistical challenge in making the 2 p.m. commitment stick.

Late Saturday night, reading between the lines, Kelly’s biggest fear seemed to be something that you could argue none of the previous 22 college teams he has presided over as a head coach had ever done — do a deep November fade.

“I think what I’m most concerned about is the inability to put together a consistent effort, tonight, in November,” he said.

The deeper angst among those who make an emotional investment in his program is bigger than that, bigger than Folston’s carries, bigger than the No. 105 ranking in red-zone offense and No. 117 rank in kickoff return coverage.

It’s that Kelly has always been about program-building more than one shining moment, and that 2012 shouldn’t be an isolated flashback to nostalgic time but the first real footprint toward sustained success.

Elite success.

Then people look at this 2013 squad, flush with preseason All-Americans and currently garnering just two points worth of support in each of the AP and coaches polls, and wonder where all of this is really headed.

Notre Dame football doesn’t do anything subtly — surges back to prominence or backward steps toward what Vanderbilt football used to be until recently.

There is always some kind of magic or ethereal signpost to mark the occasion.

Saturday night, for example, had the Irish found a way to salvage another style-points-free win, they would have surged past Michigan and back into first place in all-time winning percentage for FBS schools for the first time since the Willingham Era.

And until Texas rallied and beat West Virginia in overtime while the Irish led in Pittsburgh, it appeared the Irish would pull even with the Longhorns for the No. 2 spot in all-time wins.

Instead both opportunities are flushed for another day, or perhaps another year.

The problem with looking ahead to 2014, though, is it brings with it far more uncertainty than the current incarnation, which could just as easily roll into a surprise season as it could one that looks progressively less like the 2012 run.

The three biggest issues/questions that will ultimately sharpen that view are as follows.

1. Did Kelly do the right thing in going all-in with Tommy Rees as quarterback this season?

From the middle of the 2010 season on, Rees has practiced and played well enough to never fall below No. 2 on the depth chart — a testament to his pluck, his cerebral side, his resilience and his ability to insulate himself from and transcend criticism from the outside world.

But it has also clogged the depth chart when players who might have higher ceilings fermented rather than progressed, because there weren’t enough reps to spread around and test whether their seemingly big potential was real.

In another offensive system, Rees’ skill set may translate to prettier statistics and more wins. In Kelly’s spread offense, however modified for Rees, he’s never been a comfortable fit.

A complementary running game should have been a realistic goal in 2013, but the Irish — with continually blurred roles in the backfield — languish at No. 85. And thus, the best template to beat ND in attacking its offense remains pushing Rees from game manager to playmaker and trying to force mistakes.

Not every team has the personnel to pull that off, but the bottom line is Rees is 11-0 as a starter in games where he commits zero turnovers and 10-7 in those where he has one or more. In all games, including relief appearances, Rees has 34 career interceptions. You could argue only a handful of those were benign.

Six of those picks, including one Saturday night, were thrown in the opposing end zone as ND was going in for a score. Nineteen of them provided a window for the opposition to score, either via a pick-6 or a score on the ensuing offensive possession. Three times it provided the opportunity for the opposition to run out the clock for the victory.

Beyond mistakes, there’s efficiency. The Irish were 49th in red-zone offense in 2010, with Dayne Crist starting the first nine games and Rees the final four. Their best showing since then has been 70th last season with first-year starter Everett Golson at the controls.

They haven’t been higher than 88th in the two seasons (2011 and 2013) Rees has been the primary starter. But could part of the problem be play-calling or formation or overestimating what Rees’ skill set is capable of in tighter throwing windows with no real threat to actually run it himself (Rees has netted one yard in one planned run this season)?

And by playing Rees almost exclusively in 2013, has that set Kelly up for failure in 2014 should something happen to Golson after he returns in January? There’s no guarantee Andrew Hendrix will return in 2014, and even if he does, will he be better than he’s shown in limited cameos?
And if Kelly doesn’t think Hendrix is a viable plan B in 2014, shouldn’t Zaire have been No. 2 for some time now?

2. Will the defense continue backtracking next season to the point the offense will have to carry the load?

If it does, Kelly better hope it’s a one-year trend, because even though the national media often gets goo-goo eyed over flashy offenses and constantly proclaims each passing year that this is the one when offense will matter more than defense, it’s never happened in the BCS Era (1998-2013).

Freshman drop linebacker Jaylon Smith, who had a team-high 11 tackles Saturday night against Pitt, is the cornerstone of the future, but unless there’s a microwave function in ND’s player development machine, he may be part of a front-seven that’s short on difference-makers with the departure of both starting inside linebackers, Cat linebacker Prince Shembo, quite possible Tuitt and very likely every nose guard on the roster, including Nix.

Which makes you wonder why there wasn’t a bigger push to sign nose guards in last year’s recruiting class with the momentum of a 12-0 regular season as a nice selling point.

There’s still time for Kelly to finish with a flourish in this recruiting cycle to bolster the linebacker and defensive line corps, but more likely he’ll have to find internal solutions that make dramatic leaps in their level of play.

3. Will Kelly keep evolving as a coach?

Some feel like any head coach Notre Dame hires should be immune from growing pains and blind spots, but coaching icons Ara Parseghian and Lou Holtz will be the first to tell you there are adjustments you just can’t anticipate that color everything you do.

To Kelly’s credit, he has rarely stubbornly dug his heals in for the long term over issues that really matter. To his discredit, not all the changes he has made are necessarily helping him win games and perceptual battles.

The most perplexing X-and-O issues are the chronic coverage shenanigans on special teams and the fact that a guy who had been an offensive visionary has yet to produce a quarterback who has finished in the top 40 in passing efficiency or an offense that has finished in the top 40 in scoring while at ND.

“Coaches are responsible for getting players to execute,” Kelly said late Saturday. “That’s what we’re hired to do.”

And the great ones never wait until something’s broken to fix it. The ones who stay ahead of the curve, as Kelly did when he first brought the spread offense to Division II Grand Valley State two decades ago, believe that if it ain’t broke, break it and make it better than it ever has been.

EHansen@SBTinfo.com
574-235-6112
Twitter: @hansenNDInsider

 

[wizards8507]

Interesting points from Eric Hansen:

 

[Wild Bill]

You're assuming that the rest of our games next year are gimmes. Those aren't just "potential losses," those could very well be "probable losses." Would you really be SHOCKED if we went 1-5 against those teams and then dropped another one to Wake Forest, North Carolina, Northwestern, or Purdue?

Yes, that would shock me.

 

[wizards8507]

Yes, that would shock me.

We just lost to Pitt, or had you forgotten?

 

[Wild Bill]

We just lost to Pitt, or had you forgotten?

Unfortunately, I have not.

The sky is not falling. Golson will be back next year and I think the defense improves tremendously, even with the loss of Nix (assuming Tuitt returns).

Yes, that's a tough schedule but let's be realistic.

We just beat ASU and USC. There is no reason to assume we will lose to them next year.

Michigan isn't impressive. At all.

Louisville will lose Teddy. Frankly, they're not that impressive with him.

Stanford is tough but will lose a ton of talent on defense.

Florida State - well, that won't be fun.

Wake Forest, North Carolina, Northwestern, or Purdue should be wins. We'll see.

So yes, I would be shocked if we lost six of these games.

 

[irishpat183]

Ok, realistically. I mean you are one the main people on this board that gets their panties in a wad whenever the team punts.

And for you and everyone else that jumps on this "we suck, kelly has to go, diaco is the worst, martin has no idea, longo isnt doing his job" bandwagon; I just say, give us a solution!!!!!

I shoud've used italics...

I didn't say 'fire him"...I"m just making the point that he's not this supreme coaching god liek some on here believe when anyone questions him.

 

[irishpat183]

BK is the right man for the job. I just think he needs to stay the course and take a look at what Stanford does. Simple as that. You don't need Andrew Luck behind center to be elite. BK preaches "attention to detail," but lately I wonder if he's lost his way. Get back to basics, Coach! He's our guy. If he leaves, this starts all over.

Why? Aside from the same sermon I've heard over and over....

I say he's what we got..but there are better coaches out there. Can he win a championship at ND?

That is all that matters.

 

[ThePiombino]

Why? Aside from the same sermon I've heard over and over....

I say he's what we got..but there are better coaches out there. Can he win a championship at ND?

That is all that matters.

Can anyone?

[ Insert clichéd "Saban" response here. ]

 

[kmoose]

Interesting points from Eric Hansen:


ERIC HANSEN South Bend Tribune ehansen@sbtinfo.com |
Posted: Monday, November 11, 2013 12:00 am

Then people look at this 2013 squad, flush with preseason All-Americans and currently garnering just two points worth of support in each of the AP and coaches polls, and wonder where all of this is really headed.

EHansen@SBTinfo.com
574-235-6112
Twitter: @hansenNDInsider

I would expect this kind of hyperbole on here, but it doesn't help when professional sportswriters employ it. FLUSH with preseason All Americans? I'd like to see his research into that subject. ND had ONE ESPN preseason AA....... Tuitt. Phil Steele had 3 Golden Domers on his list; a 3rd team Zack Martin on offense, and 1st team Nix and Tuitt. CBS Sports had 1st teamers Tuitt and Nix. The Sporting News had 1st teamer Tuitt.

So Tuitt and Nix make multiple teams, and Martin gets a 3rd team nod on another one. That's a grand total of 2 players getting respectable preseason AA honors, and one getting a mention. Suddenly, in Hansen's eyes, ND is FLUSH with Preseason AAs? The hyperbole from the fans and ND media is, arguably, the #1 thing holding ND back. If you don't win 10 games a year, with a backup QB, and with 13 of your 2 deep defensive players missing time, then you are an utter failure who is squandering all of the elite talent on your roster.

 

[Wild Bill]

I would expect this kind of hyperbole on here, but it doesn't help when professional sportswriters employ it. FLUSH with preseason All Americans? I'd like to see his research into that subject. ND had ONE ESPN preseason AA....... Tuitt. Phil Steele had 3 Golden Domers on his list; a 3rd team Zack Martin on offense, and 1st team Nix and Tuitt. CBS Sports had 1st teamers Tuitt and Nix. The Sporting News had 1st teamer Tuitt.

So Tuitt and Nix make multiple teams, and Martin gets a 3rd team nod on another one. That's a grand total of 2 players getting respectable preseason AA honors, and one getting a mention. Suddenly, in Hansen's eyes, ND is FLUSH with Preseason AAs? The hyperbole from the fans and ND media is, arguably, the #1 thing holding ND back. If you don't win 10 games a year, with a backup QB, and with 13 of your 2 deep defensive players missing time, then you are an utter failure who is squandering all of the elite talent on your roster.

This one is good too:

"Which makes you wonder why there wasn’t a bigger push to sign nose guards in last year’s recruiting class with the momentum of a 12-0 regular season as a nice selling point."

Yeah, all Kelly did was sign Eddie V, arguably the best DT in the class. Hopefully Kelly can land a nice JUCO transfer to plug the hole this kid left in the class.