2013 CFB: Week 1

wizards8507

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Stupid call by Flood, make the field goal and go into a second ot. 2 point conversions are such a low percentage play.

Two-point conversions are not required during the first two overtimes. Let p2 denote the success probability on a two-point conversion. Suppose your opponent scores 7 points in the first possession of the 2nd overtime, and you then score a touchdown of your own. If you kick the extra point, you move to the 3rd overtime. However, in that overtime you will have to start on offense, and your win probability will be 0.4773. Since kicked extra points have about a 0.985 success probability, p2 has to exceed 0.47 before you can justify going for two. In the realistic case in which p2 ≤ 0.47, the teams should never go for two prior to the 3rd overtime. (The Table entries, generated using p2= 0.4, correspond to that case.) If p2 is between 0.47 and 0.57, the team with the second possession during an overtime period should go for two if their opponents score 7 points, but the team with the first possession should kick if they score a touchdown. Consequently, as p2 rises from 0.47 to 0.57, the format becomes steadily more favorable to the team that wins the coin toss. Their win probability peaks at 0.54 when p2 = 0.57. When p2 > 0.57, even the team with the first possession should go for two following a touchdown.

2 point converstions are somewhere between 45% and 50% successful. The "break even" point on whether you should go for 2 or not in the first or second overtime would be if you think your conversion chance is 47% or better (and that's assume a 100% extra point success rate). In a week one game, even an extra point is not quite definite so going for two is actually, mathematically, the correct call. At the very worst it's a wash.
 

NDhoosier

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I found the game rather sloppy. Vandy gave up a huge run to let Ole Miss back in. Saw a guy on twitter say that the math program at Vandy had funds cut last year. Vandy was bad at all angles on the long TD.

so did I, a lot of missed balls by receivers was what I saw and neither of the QBs were overly impressive. Matthews, even with his missed pass turned disaster, seems like a stud WR.
 

Andy in Sactown

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Duke Johnson has racked up 130 yards on 9 carries (14.4 ave.) with a long of 53 and 1 TD.

And that's in a little more than a quarter. 13:03 2nd right now.
 

NDhoosier

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Rain delay for the MSU game:
MSU's defense looks very solid
MSU's offense looks pretty bad
 

Yes

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Shout out to Fargo, North Dakota. NDSU probably has the best FCS team in the land. They may not beat KSU, but they're pretty damn good.
 

Irish Insanity

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WMU D isn't looking to bad against the pass, and their backup QB, a red shirt freshman, just threw a TD on his first pass. MSU looks horrible on O and their D looks just OK. 7-7 halfway thru the 2nd
 

IrishSteelhead

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2013 CFB: Week 1

Dunno if we're allowed to talk about this, but some receiver on Houston has 4 catches and a TD tonight.
 

woolybug25

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Dunno if we're allowed to talk about this, but some receiver on Houston has 4 catches and a TD tonight.

Lalalala.gif
 

irishff1014

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Bama is good but no wheres near as good as last year IMO.

Logan Thomas for VT sucks.
 

Irish Insanity

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Wonder if anyone has ever been injured during that entrance?

But I will say with the crowd and all the excitement, it was pretty sweet
 

irishff1014

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Wonder if anyone has ever been injured during that entrance?

But I will say with the crowd and all the excitement, it was pretty sweet

I was wonder that too. It is kinda steep. Not to mention they have to get on a bus and ride half way around the complex just to do that.
 

BostonND

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I can't decide who to root for in the Clemson-Georgia game. Which team losing would be better for ND? Right now I'm leaning toward "it doesn't really matter", since both have at least two tough games left and obviously it's so early in the season. Is there some particularly spiteful reason to root against one of the teams?
 

Luckylucci

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K. Marshal hasn't had the night that Gurley has but physically he's added good weight and looks great. Best backfield in the country over Bama, IMO.
 

Luckylucci

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I can't decide who to root for in the Clemson-Georgia game. Which team losing would be better for ND? Right now I'm leaning toward "it doesn't really matter", since both have at least two tough games left and obviously it's so early in the season. Is there some particularly spiteful reason to root against one of the teams?

In the beginnin I w pondering the same thing and then said who cares. It's a great game
 

IrishLax

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Bama is good but no wheres near as good as last year IMO.

Logan Thomas for VT sucks.

I thought Bama was actually pretty crappy against a quite average VT team. Their OL is nowhere close to as good as last year and they only had about 200 yards of offense. Their D seemed legit per usual.
 

Sherm Sticky

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Hack yeah! Huge sack right there.

ACC is going to be strong in the future. Clemson is looking more and more like an SEC team, FSU is strong, Miami is re surging under Golden, Notre Dame semi joining the conference and UNC, VT, NCST and UVA all solid teams.
 

Sherm Sticky

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I thought Bama was actually pretty crappy against a quite average VT team. Their OL is nowhere close to as good as last year and they only had about 200 yards of offense. Their D seemed legit per usual.
The younger Kouandjio is a stud, they have weapons at WR and RB but you are correct the oline won't be close to as dominant.
 

NDWorld247

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The younger Kouandjio is a stud, they have weapons at WR and RB but you are correct the oline won't be close to as dominant.

It's kind of hard to replace two 1st round picks and a 5Y All-American who's also playing on Sundays. I didn't watch the game but only 200 yards of total offense is shocking. Sounds like Alabama out Beamer-balled Beamer.
 
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