2012 Notre Dame WR Data (through 11/3)

[Whiskeyjack]

Bill Connelly recently posted an article ranking CFB WRs. He was kind enough to share his data as well, so I took the liberty of pulling out ND's WRs and creating a separate spread sheet.

The first eight categories should be self-explanatory. For the last four categories:

• Passing S&P+ is Bill's measure how good a given team is at moving the ball through the air, since WRs on teams with a good QB and OL should be more effective. For frame of reference, ND's Passing S&P+ (136.6) currently ranks 10th, Bama's ranks 1st at 159.1 and the Fighting Bob Davie's are last with 55.2;
• Pass % indicates how frequently a team passes (instead of rushing);
• RYPR stands for (Target Rate x Yards per Target x Passing S & P+ x P@ss Rate), which is currently Bill's metric for ranking WRs; and
• Rank indicates the player's RYPR value relative to his peers.

Some observations:

• TJ is our clear #1 WR. He's been clutch for us this year, but his catch rate is pretty poor;
• Eifert's numbers make me sad. He's still being underutilized;
• Riddick and Toma have been solid, as expected, but Daniels surprisingly so;
• Golson is 1 for 5 on that deep post route to Chris Brown;
• We're losing 3 of our top 5 receivers next year.

 

[jakerbluegold]

My head just exploded!!

 

[Downinthebend]

Is there any possible way to know the average length of the attempted pass? Like Chris Brown always seems to be targeted on those long 3 or 4 verticals plays. But this is awesome.

Is it right that if I take (yards per target - yards after carry )/the number of catches I would get the average length of the completed catch. But that does not talk at all about the length of a non-completed target.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

Daniels' 72% catch rate and 11 yards per target is amazing. The kid is going to be a stud.

 

[WakeUpEchoes]

Wow reps man. Thanks

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Is there any possible way to know the average length of the attempted pass? Like Chris Brown always seems to be targeted on those long 3 or 4 verticals plays. But this is awesome.

Is it right that if I take (yards per target - yards after carry )/the number of catches I would get the average length of the completed catch. But that does not talk at all about the length of a non-completed target.

Correct. We don't have enough data at this point to derive that figure. If anyone wants to go back and rewatch all the games to figure it out, I'll happily fork over one crisp Schrute buck and a hefty rep.

Daniels' 72% catch rate and 11 yards per target is amazing. The kid is going to be a stud.

Also correct. His 1st year stats indicate that Daniels will be a bawse.

 

[NDdomer2]

Bill Connelly recently posted an article ranking CFB WRs. He was kind enough to share his data as well, so I took the liberty of pulling out ND's WRs and creating a separate spread sheet.

The first eight categories should be self-explanatory. For the last four categories:

• Passing S&P+ is Bill's measure how good a given team is at moving the ball through the air, since WRs on teams with a good QB and OL should be more effective. For frame of reference, ND's Passing S&P+ (136.6) currently ranks 10th, Bama's ranks 1st at 159.1 and the Fighting Bob Davie's are last with 55.2;
• Pass % indicates how frequently a team passes (instead of rushing);
• RYPR stands for (Target Rate x Yards per Target x Passing S & P+ x P@ss Rate), which is currently Bill's metric for ranking WRs; and
• Rank indicates the player's RYPR value relative to his peers.

Some observations:

• TJ is our clear #1 WR. He's been clutch for us this year, but his catch rate is pretty poor;
• Eifert's numbers make me sad. He's still being underutilized;
• Riddick and Toma have been solid, as expected, but Daniels surprisingly so;
• Golson is 1 for 5 on that deep post route to Chris Brown;
• We're losing 3 of our top 5 receivers next year.

TJ's catch rate is poor but doesn't that also represent missed throws by the qb? How many of those targeted incompletions are drops?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

TJ's catch rate is poor but doesn't that also represent missed throws by the qb? How many of those targeted incompletions are drops?

Supposedly all. Bill doesn't count uncatchable balls as "targets". But now that you mention it, I'm virtually certain TJ hasn't dropped 50% of the passes that came his way.

Will mention this to Bill.

 

[NDdomer2]

Supposedly all. Bill doesn't count uncatchable balls as "targets". But now that you mention it, I'm virtually certain TJ hasn't dropped 50% of the passes that came his way.

Will mention this to Bill.

Awesome stuff by the way!! Being a wide receiver in my day this is awesome stuff!

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

I feel like every time Golson throws the ball out of bounds on a throw-away, it's over TJ's head. Very interested to hear what Mr. Connelly has to say about what contributed to TJ's low catch rate.

 

[sportallyr]

Can't believe Cierre only has 2 catches this year. I know that he's no Marshall Faulk, but he has proved to be an above average receiver out of the backfield previous years. Curious as to why we're not using him more...both running the ball and catching the ball.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

Can't believe Cierre only has 2 catches this year. I know that he's no Marshall Faulk, but he has proved to be an above average receiver out of the backfield previous years. Curious as to why we're not using him more...both running the ball and catching the ball.

Can't catch the ball if you're never in the game.

And Kelly apparently removed screen passes from the playbook this season.

 

[IrishFan4L]

I agree Ciere is a very good back that needs touches but him fumbling the rock in such a crucial time this past weekend didn't help his case.

 

[IrishLion]

Can't catch the ball if you're never in the game.

And Kelly apparently removed screen passes from the playbook this season.

Did he actually say something about removing screens to running backs, or is this sarcasm based the lack of such plays?

Either way, I was asking my friend during the Pitt game why we haven't run any this season and thought the first play of overtime would have been a good time to run one finally. Maybe he's saving them for USC, as it appeared he was saving punt returns for the Pitt game.

 

[NDdomer2]

Word is Kelly won't run them after KLM picked off Golson in summer camp.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

Did he actually say something about removing screens to running backs, or is this sarcasm based the lack of such plays?

Purely sarcasm. I (and my dad) am a huge fan of the screen game, especially against aggressive defenses.

I do have this deep-lying notion that Kelly has been holding back the entire offense all season because -- frankly -- we haven't really need to do anything crazy to get to 9-0. For instance, the TJ Jones throw-back screen for a touchdown against Pitt... was that the first time we've run that play all year?

IMO, a major part of college football is simply getting your athletes the ball in space and letting them make plays. When you have better athletes than the opposition, sometimes offensive playcalling can be as simply as letting your guys beat theirs. I'm not going to claim to know even 1/100th of what BK knows about football, but I have been disappointed by the total lack of a screen game this season because it can be a major weapon with some simple execution.

 

[ulukinatme]

The screen worked well in the Alabama game last week. If Oregon and K State somehow find a way to lose, we may want to think about working on it again.

 

[NDdomer2]

Purely sarcasm. I (and my dad) am a huge fan of the screen game, especially against aggressive defenses.

I do have this deep-lying notion that Kelly has been holding back the entire offense all season because -- frankly -- we haven't really need to do anything crazy to get to 9-0. For instance, the TJ Jones throw-back screen for a touchdown against Pitt... was that the first time we've run that play all year?

IMO, a major part of college football is simply getting your athletes the ball in space and letting them make plays. When you have better athletes than the opposition, sometimes offensive playcalling can be as simply as letting your guys beat theirs. I'm not going to claim to know even 1/100th of what BK knows about football, but I have been disappointed by the total lack of a screen game this season because it can be a major weapon with some simple execution.

We have definitely been vanilla for most of the year except a few occasions.

 

[DSully1995]

Keep it simple for Golson, little by little it will expand.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Did he actually say something about removing screens to running backs, or is this sarcasm based the lack of such plays?

Kelly was asked specifically about why we weren't running more bubble screens after the BYU game. He said teams were stacking the box against us, and that it's difficult to use bubble screens with so many guys on the LoS. More likely, I don't think he trusts our WRs to block well enough.

He claimed we were using backfield motion instead of screens to prevent opposing defenses from getting too aggressive. I can't recall if we used such motion to good effect in the OU and Pitt games.

 

[Rhode Irish]

My immediate thought upon looking at the information is that Daniels needs to be more involved.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Regarding TJ's poor catch rate:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-in-reply-to="266924284587433984"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/whisk3yjack">whisk3yjack</a> drops are only part of it, yes. Could be a pass broken up, fired off-target, etc.</p>— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBN_BillC/status/266925039453077504" data-datetime="2012-11-09T15:27:43+00:00">November 9, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So PBUs, intentional throw-aways, etc. are included in that figure. Makes it less useful for comparing WR quality.

 

[ThePiombino]

Regarding TJ's poor catch rate:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-in-reply-to="266924284587433984"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/whisk3yjack">whisk3yjack</a> drops are only part of it, yes. Could be a pass broken up, fired off-target, etc.</p>— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBN_BillC/status/266925039453077504" data-datetime="2012-11-09T15:27:43+00:00">November 9, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So PBUs, intentional throw-aways, etc. are included in that figure. Makes it less useful for comparing WR quality.

Yup, makes much more sense knowing that it's not just factoring dropped passes. No way TJ would be at 50%. Good detective work, Whiskey!

 

[NDdomer2]

Regarding TJ's poor catch rate:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-in-reply-to="266924284587433984"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/whisk3yjack">whisk3yjack</a> drops are only part of it, yes. Could be a pass broken up, fired off-target, etc.</p>— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBN_BillC/status/266925039453077504" data-datetime="2012-11-09T15:27:43+00:00">November 9, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So PBUs, intentional throw-aways, etc. are included in that figure. Makes it less useful for comparing WR quality.

Well done Whiskey. Sucks for TJ that he was the "target" of intentional throw-aways.

 

[NOLAIrish]

Regarding TJ's poor catch rate:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-in-reply-to="266924284587433984"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/whisk3yjack">whisk3yjack</a> drops are only part of it, yes. Could be a pass broken up, fired off-target, etc.</p>— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBN_BillC/status/266925039453077504" data-datetime="2012-11-09T15:27:43+00:00">November 9, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So PBUs, intentional throw-aways, etc. are included in that figure. Makes it less useful for comparing WR quality.

I don't think intentional throw-aways will be included. That would systematically bias the data against outside receivers as they're going to be nearest the ball in many such scenarios (i.e. a disproportionate number of throw-aways are thrown toward the sideline to minimize the risk of an interception; outside receivers run a disproportionate number of routes toward the sideline). It will include PBUs (as it should, since a component to good receiver play is successfully preventing defenders from deflecting the ball and Passing S+P should correct for the QB component of this stat), poorly-thrown balls, and possibly tipped passes.

Another article provides better information on this statistic:

Targets: the sum of a player's catches and incomplete passes directed at the player. Only between 85 and 90 percent of a team's passes include target data; interceptions and some throwaways do not.

Link

Connelly wrote that article as well, so I think it's safe to assume he defined targets the same way in both. Kind of strange that interceptions were not included.

 

[NDdomer2]

I don't think intentional throw-aways will be included. That would systematically bias the data against outside receivers as they're going to be nearest the ball in many such scenarios (i.e. a disproportionate number of throw-aways are thrown toward the sideline to minimize the risk of an interception; outside receivers run a disproportionate number of routes toward the sideline). It will include PBUs (as it should, since a component to good receiver play is successfully preventing defenders from deflecting the ball and Passing S+P should correct for the QB component of this stat), poorly-thrown balls, and possibly tipped passes.

Another article provides better information on this statistic:

Link

Connelly wrote that article as well, so I think it's safe to assume he defined targets the same way in both. Kind of strange that interceptions were not included.

Still seems odd that one SOME of the throw aways would count. How do you pick which ones do and which ones don't?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't think intentional throw-aways will be included. That would systematically bias the data against outside receivers as they're going to be nearest the ball in many such scenarios (i.e. a disproportionate number of throw-aways are thrown toward the sideline to minimize the risk of an interception; outside receivers run a disproportionate number of routes toward the sideline). It will include PBUs (as it should, since a component to good receiver play is successfully preventing defenders from deflecting the ball and Passing S+P should correct for the QB component of this stat), poorly-thrown balls, and possibly tipped passes.

I agree that's how it should work; uncatchable throws should not be counted against a WRs Catch Rate. But I'm confident that TJ hasn't failed to bring down ~50% of the catchable balls thrown his way, so either that figure is simply wrong, or Bill isn't distinguishing between catchable and uncatchable balls well enough.

Not that my memory is infallible, but I'm surely not alone in thinking that TJ's catch rate is way too low. Aside from a single drop against Pitt, I can't remember any others.

Another article provides better information on this statistic:

Link

Connelly wrote that article as well, so I think it's safe to assume he defined targets the same way in both. Kind of strange that interceptions were not included.

That's the assumption I was working under as well, but TJ's poor catch rate is causing me to question the data/ methodology.

 

[NOLAIrish]

Still seems odd that one SOME of the throw aways would count. How do you pick which ones do and which ones don't?

I'd bet it's based on whether it's a targeted throw-away. If it's thrown at the receiver's feet (e.g. a blown-up screen) or if it's thrown out-of-bounds over a receiver's head, my guess is it's counted as a target, since both of those scenarios involve a situation where the receiver was a central part of the play and failed to get open. To the extent that these types of throw-aways systematically bias the data, i.e. more screens to backs and slot-type WRs, this bias actually isn't necessary undesirable: these are the kind of routes we want to judge those types of WRs on.

 

[NOLAIrish]

I agree that's how it should work; uncatchable throws should not be counted against a WRs Catch Rate. But I'm confident that TJ hasn't failed to bring down ~50% of the catchable balls thrown his way, so either that figure is simply wrong, or Bill isn't distinguishing between catchable and uncatchable balls well enough.



That's the assumption I was working under as well, but TJ's poor catch rate is causing me to question the data/ methodology.

That's also a strong possibility. Our WRs are going to be unusually sensitive to weaknesses in how targets are categorized, since they have such a low number of targets overall. One way we could look at this is to combine all targets and compare it to the number of attempts Everett and Tommy have for the season. Give me a minute and I'll edit that in.

Edit: I'm getting 247 targets to 264 total passes thrown. 17 intentional throw-aways omitted. If he left out interceptions, we're down to 11 intentional throw-aways omitted. That's extraordinarily low; just over 1 per game.

 

[mgriff]

Chris Brown---------------------------------------------Niklas/Koyak/Next Great TE
----------------------------Davonte-------------Golson--------------------------------------DD

----------------------------------------------------GAIII

The future looks bright