Ill be saving my edits after every two event I go through or so (of the ones I know, everything except some field events basically). So here we go:
All of these are predictions as the Trials haven't occurred yet- they are June 21- July 1. These are my predictions for the trials and what those guys can do medal threats etc.
Men
100m
1. Tyson Gay- A lot of guys forget he was Bolt's main rival before he tragically pulled in hammy in the '08 Olympic trials 200m. He won gold in the 100 and 200 in the 2007 World Championships before the injury. He is still dealing with the injury (and subsequent complications) but could be a real threat. He has run 9.69 (American Record) and 19.58 200m. A BIG threat in both events (if he decides to do both). He could really threaten Bolt/ Powell/Blake the three Jamaicans who are eyeing medals at the Olympics. He could threaten Bolt if 100%.
2. Walter Dix- A top NCAA guy a couple years ago. If he decides to do the 100 he will most likely make the team (he could do the 200 as well). Has PR's of 9.88 (100) and 19.53 (200) from 2010 and 2011 respectively. Will also threaten for a medal. But the to p3 of jamaica will be hard to get by.
3. Justin Gatling- Former drug cheat (busted) as been on top recently running 9.90 at the Pre Classic a couple of weeks ago with a horrid start. Another favorite to make the team. Ill ignore his best times as they were performance enhanced, but there is not doubting he is a stud.
Other Names: Trell Kimmons, Darvis Patton, Mike Rodgers. Also Ill throw in Marvin Bracy (HS kid) and Jeff Demps since you guys are footballs guy. Both are long shots, but " on any given day'.
Basically, whoever the US sends to London has a shot to medal, we are that good in this event. The Jamaicans will be the main competition as will some other Carribean guys (Trinidad etc.)
MEDAL COUNT:1- not sure who but probably one medal to get here (maybe 2).
200m
1. Tyson Gay- Could also decide to do the 200 (either in addition to or instead of the 100). Would probably place higher at the olympics in the 200. See 100-1 for more info.
2. Wallace Spearman- A real stud in the last 100 of the 200. Would have been a World's medalist if he didnt barely go out of his lane. Still has two bronzes from 2007 and 2009 WC (World Championshsips). Is really ineffective at 100, but very strong at 200. A PR of 19.65 STUDLY. Will also benefit by only running the 200 (not the 100 also).
3. Walter Dix- See 100- 2.
Others: Alot of longer shots. Shawn Crawford.
Medal Ccount:1-2. Couting Bolt for a medal we will probably pick up one or both of the other medals. Like the 100 any of the guys we have that go have a great shot. Especially the top 3.
400m
1. LaShawn Merritt- Double gold medalist from Beijing(400 and 4x400 relay) looks to hold his title, but will face a lot of competeition both national and international. Served a drug ban for a "natural male enhancement drug" kind of a weird ban.
2. Jeremy Warner- Who Merritt upset to win gold in Beijing, was formerly the top 400 guy in the world, but has stuggled recently. Will need to improve his form, but definitely still a threat.
3. Tony McQuay- NCAA Champion with a brutal time. Will hold his own with the professionals. Ran 44.58 to win NCAA's. Will be interesting to see how the long season effects him. (NCAA season starts earlier than professionals).
Medal Count- 1-2: Traditionally an event the US has dominated may not be so this year. I still expect some serious medals, but maybe not the dominance. Shout out to Brady Gehret (a guy I know) who will be running!
800m
1. Nick Symmonds - The top 800 guy the past couple of years in the US should qualify for London with his patented kick the last 200. Will have a hell of a time medalling in London, though he did make the WC finals last year.
2. Charles Jock- NCAA Champ with a front running style. Represented the US at the WC last year, and has been in to form this year. (UC Irvine)
3. Tough here but: Robby Andrews- alot of hype here after his 3:35 1500m. A top high school and NCAA guy who quit his college team (UVA) to go pro this fall with the purpose of focusing on the olympics.
Others:
These Guys are still very much in the mix.
4. Andrew Wheating- Surprise Olympian while at Oregon in '08 was a lock for the US until a bad hammy injury. Hopefully he can round into form in time.
5. Michael Rutt- Former UCONN star has been running very well.
Medal Count: 0. We have very little chance of medaling here.
Note: A great event to watch as David Rudisha (Kenya) broke the world record twice in '09 after it wasnt really threatened for a long time. Current WR holder (1:41.01) ran 1:41.73 in New York today. All by himself. Amazing. Wont be surprised to see a WR. Has a great front running style. Funny to see a kenyan in this as they normally dominate other races.
1500m
Let me preface this with this: One of the event I follow the most, and still have no idea who will make it. We have a bunch of "good guys" but no body with a great shot at medaling. The order is rather arbitrary after the first 2.
1. David Torrence- Really burst onto the radar this year, and has been the most consistent performer. IMO most likely to make it.
2. Leo Manzano- '08 Olympian always shows up when it matters, and has been very consistent as well. Will probably make it.
After that it is a crap shoot soooo many guys with a shot.
3. Kyle Merber- Columbia Senior ran a stunning 3:35 this spring.
4. Robby Andrews- (See 800)
5. Andrew Wheating (See 800)
6. Lopez Lomong- '08 Olympian at 1500, will probably chose 5000m , but will probably make it here if he choses too.
7. Alan Webb- A bit of a nervous reck/ headcase. Has the HS mile record (breaking Jim Ryun's old mark) at 3:53. Im not sure he can run that fast now. Returned after a "disappearance". Has the American record in the mile at 3:46 (sick). But not much of a shot.
8. The NCAA guys- Miles Batty, Andy Bayer, Chris O'hare (runs for the UK but still). Alot of guys in the mix. (The guys probably wont make it, but good stories.)
Medal Count: 0. Nothing much else to say here. Basically no shot. I doubt anyone makes the final. A down year for the US.
5000m
US distance geeks are pumped for this one!!!
1. Galen Rupp- A 10k speciallist but recently broke 13:00 for the first time in Eugene (12:58). Really has progressed the past couple of year. Will have an outisde shot at a medal (though much more likely at 10k)
2. Bernard Lagat- A class act. Great man. But getting long in the tooth. Will still make the team and has a legit shot to medal. Was 2nd at the WC last year, and recent broke the AR 12:54.
3. Lopez Lomong- He has his own commerecials. DUH. Carried the flag for the US at Beijing. One of the lost boys of Sudan. Great story. RAN an ABSOLUTELY sick 13:11 this spring. He miscounted the laps and sprinted with 800 (2 laps left) and started to celebrate on the homestretch. Then he stopped and celebrated before someone told him he had naother lap left. Still won the race. The lap( with a stop) was 60s (4 min mile pace). Sick.
Others:
Chris Solinsky wont race but the former American record holder at 10k and sub 13 guy is out with a hammy injury, but a class act and would have a shot at medaling if he were healthy.
The top three are basically solid IMO.
Medal Count:1. In an event dominated by Africans and Mo Farah (UK) the US has two legit medal contenders should be fun. Will be a great event to watch with a UK favorite (Farah won the WC last year).
10,000m
1. Galen Rupp- See 5k, but in addition. Ran 26:48 last year. Coach Renato Canova (one of the most respecte coaches) says the 10k pecking order is K. Bekele (WR holder at 5k and 10k), Farah, 1 kenyan and Rupp. Those four are in a stratosphere by themselves. Should be awesome in event the US has never done well in historically. Youtube "Billy Mills 10k" awesome story.
2. Dathan Ritzenhein- 4th at the US Marathon Trails (hearbreaker after 26.2 miles to lose by 7 seconds (well behind 3rd)). Has recently returned to the track and will probably make it.
3.5 Chris Derrick- The best NCAA Runner to never win a NCAA title no doubt. 10 time All American. And would have 5, yes 5, national Championships with nor foreigners in the races (2 XC, 2 Indoor this year and 10k outdoor this year). Feel bad for the kid. Ran a 27:31 for top American at Stanford this year.
3.5 Matt Tegenkamp- A top 5k guy who with age has had to move up. Has never produced a huge 10k yet, but has alot of potential.
Medal Count: 1. Ill be optimistic. Rupp has a great chance to medal, but it is not guarentee. Id put his chances at 75-80%. Awesome for us. NOTE: Rupp has the fastes not African (or African born) time ever. He also Trains with Mo Farah, another favorite. Bekele will also be back and if the guy is health he is unbeatable. (But he hasnt been healthy in a while). Rupp beat him at a 5k in Oregon last week.
Marathon
Ill be breif since the trials have passed. Our guys:
1. Ryan Hall- Our best chance at a medal. Still very low. Did run 2:06 in London a couple of years ago and a 204:58 in Boston the year all the times were fast * huge tailwind
2. Meb Keflezighi- Surpised with a Trials win
3. Abdi Abdirahman- Suprised with 3rd at Trials.
Medal Count: 0. No doubt really.
Notes: Kind of a strange race sine each country is only able to enter three. The Kenyans left off the top marathoner in the world (Geofrey Mutai won Boston and New York in record times) and the WR holder, Makau. Ethiopia is an a similar position.
Not really as good with the hurdles:
110m Hurdles
I know we have david Oliver who projects to get a medal with Lui Xiang(China) and Darron Robles (Cuba).
400m Hurdles
Traditionally an event the US dominates. BerShawn "Batman" Jackson is a medal threat along with others. Will get about 2 medals here.
Not great with field. Maybe other could help there. We will dominate the Shot put and do well in the Long Jump as well as a gold medal Chance at the High Jump.
Womens events/ people to watch (because Im sexist... actually just lazy)
Alyson Felix- I mean you wont miss her the media hypes her up so much- deservedly so a beast in the 200 and also very strong in the 100 if she does it. Will probably be on the 4x1 and 4x4 relay.
Carmaleta Jeter- Great medaling chance in the 100 and 200.
Sanya Richards-Ross: Aaron Ross (NYG)'s husband. Former 400m gold medalist.
JennySimpson- Great girl. Surpise winner at the WC last year. Hasnt been "on" this year though.
Morgan Uceny- Cornell Grad was ranked #1 in the world last year (VERY rare for anyone in the US). Was favorite at WC before being tripped up by another competitor and falling. Would probably have won. Would love for her to do well. Good medal chance- rare in the distance events.
The Marathoners- Kara Goucher is endlessly hype. Great girl, awesome personality and has come back after giving birth to a baby boy. Shalane Flanagan marathon newcomer, awesome track credentials chance at a medal. Desi davila- Awesome underdog story. Real "blue collar" worker. Endeared in the heart of American distance followers after a gutsy 2nd at Boston a couple of years ago. All have an outside shot at a medal.
Lolo Jones- Media loves her. So cool. Great Story. Had her own ESPN episode. Beautiful (reason alone to watch). Oh shes single. She would have won in Bejing but fell over the last hurdle... felt (and still do) awful for her. Not by any means a lock for the Olympics or medaling but has been in the news alot!
Lolo Jones: Olympian says she'll be a virgin 'til she's married - latimes.com
Some cool events to watch even if no Americans were in it:
Anything Bolts in. DUH. But also Powell and Blake in the 100 and 200.
I dont include them but he relays. The US does well if they get the baton around. Mens 4x1 will be a beast matchup with the US and Jamaica if it formulates...
Mens 800- Rudisha is so impressive. Its crazy how good he is. Any of you guys remember Sebastian Coe. Yeah he crushed his WR.
Mens 5k/10k- Farah(UK) is one of the UK's biggest Gold hopefuls always cool to watch. Oh and Some great Americans in those races.
Mens 1500- Metric Mile always drama filled. Asbel Kiprop "The Spider" has the longest legs ever and is a freak.
PoleVaults/ High Jumps are always cool to watch
Other NOn Track Notes:
BUMMED Rulon Garner didnt make it. Remeber when he beat that big Russian that was "unbeatable". Love it. Cartwheels on the mat!
Im tired though it was kind of fun. Il throw in some big names (non US later too). I do leave tomorrow though with a place with no internet sooo...
