Phil Steele Preseason Top 40

[irishfan]

Phil Steele

I feel like I post this every year. He is through team #31 right now, and the only ND opponent so far is BYU at 35. No ND yet, but I'm sure they'll be there. Phil Steele is probably a bit overrated, but its always interesting to see who he picks where.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Since I have begun to somewhat follow these things [just a couple of years now in "IE mode"], Phil Steele overrates us in terms of how we actually win and lose every time, maybe moreso than any team. And... paradoxically... I don't think that he's "wrong" to do so. Steele has a very complex way that he rates player-by-player, and back-ups-at-positions, and apparently Notre Dame looks awfully good when measured that way... and I agree with him. But Steele is basically a numbers cruncher and not an eyeball-test nor a systemic analyst guy. So his ratings are sky high vis-a-vis individual measurable potential, but something like us having a complete bust at a vital position doesn't sink that boat far enough.

Steele in his way sees what almost all the analysts see: Notre Dame is loaded "almost" everywhere, but there are critical flaws. Kelly is slowly year-by-year curing them --- defensive and offensive line toughness and athleticism, balanced offensive weaponry, defensive speed, linebacker "fit-to-scheme", ... the roster may have been star-studded, but the 21st century fits weren't there. Now Kelly has almost all of that in pretty good shape and here comes the cornerback deficiency to throw a wrench in the works [Lynch didn't help either]. Since that's defense, Diaco will brilliantly, if not prettily, find a way to make do. But in the end it's the same old sad story: quarterback. Steele will see sparkles of the occasionally competent Rees, the occasionally dazzling Hendrix, the awesome talents of Golson, and even the 5-star rookie, and say: they can't keep misfiring here can they? And rate us high... as will secretly the whole college football crowd. The thought is undeniably there. Notre Dame is a crippled slumbering monster. When will it fix its wound? Then out will come the Dragon.

Man, even I who got to see a lot of Notre Dame greatness in my long life, can't wait for the roar of the Beast that's there to be unleashed. One... Good... Quarterback... give us a break.

 

[bert2834]

Great post OMM!!!!!!!!!! reps

 

[Kak7304]

Phil Steele does a great job of evaluating the talent and potential of a team heading into the season. His tendency to "overrate" ND has more to do with the team under-performing in recent years, rather than a flaw in his system.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I for one have liked Phil Steele for many years (living in Nevada and following his methods for betting). [disclaimer]

I can't dispute that the past few years he has overrated ND compared to their record and final ranking. However, is it Phil, his methods and formulas, or is it the Irish under performing?

Was it Phil's fault that the defense had a 4th quarter meltdown against Michigan? That our QB's and RB's fumbled at critical times? Or should he have known to factor that in before the season started?

I actually think his ratings and methods are more accurate than most (*cough . . . BCS . . . cough*). I think many of us believe that ND should have won at least 2 more games than they did, and should have ended the season ranked ahead of Michigan. Bottom line is that they did not perform on the field, lost too many games and did not deserve to be ranked.

Phil Steele's preseason rankings of ND last year was probably about where they should of and could have ended the season. They just did not finish their games and earn it. So who is right? Aren't preseason rankings about what should happen, not what does? Here is where I'll put Phil Steele up there with the best.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Aren't preseason rankings about what should happen, not what does? Here is where I'll put Phil Steele up there with the best.

+1

 

[irishfan]

#30 is A&M and #29 is Auburn.

Steele is counting down through numbers 28-17 next week, so ND should be in there.

 

[NDPhilly]

Michigan is 22 and Notre Dame 21

 

[Buster Bluth]

You really only need to read the last sentence of every paragraph to get his insight. A lot of overrated statistical analysis.

 

[mgriff]

Phil has been perpetuating ND's inflated optimism for over twenty years! I just do not buy him anymore.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

No way should ND be ranked higher than UM, south carolina, WVU, Auburn, or Va Tech

 

[Whiskeyjack]

You really only need to read the last sentence of every paragraph to get his insight. A lot of overrated statistical analysis.

I agree that some of his statistical analysis is overrated, but it's still far better than the hand-waving that passes for analysis from most sports writers.

Phil has been perpetuating ND's inflated optimism for over twenty years! I just do not buy him anymore.

He has an objective methodology and he sticks to it. I respect him for that. ND has long underperformed in relation to its potential on paper. Surely we must "regress to the mean" and put all those s to use sooner than later.

 

[Chris P. Bacon]

No way should ND be ranked higher than UM, south carolina, WVU, Auburn, or Va Tech

We should definitely be higher than MICH, WVU and Auburn. I lived down in Auburn the last couple years and have watched their players. They lost their RB to a transfer and he was a beast of the offense. I wouldn't just jump to the conclusion that because their in the SEC and they won the NC (With Cam) that they are that much better than us. SC and VA Tech I don't know enough to make a comment on those two but definitely higher then MICH. We man handled them last year and just gave up in the 4th quarter. Turnovers are obviously what hurt us last year, I think the type of offense we run with and the solid 7 man up front on our Defense, we are far superior then Mich. Hoagie obviously had a fluke season with MICH last year, just like we had a fluke season with the amount of turnovers.

 

[ACamp1900]

No way should ND be ranked higher than UM, south carolina, WVU, Auburn, or Va Tech

We should definitely be higher than MICH, WVU and Auburn. I lived down in Auburn the last couple years and have watched their players. They lost their RB to a transfer and he was a beast of the offense. I wouldn't just jump to the conclusion that because their in the SEC and they won the NC (With Cam) that they are that much better than us. SC and VA Tech I don't know enough to make a comment on those two but definitely higher then MICH. We man handled them last year and just gave up in the 4th quarter. Turnovers are obviously what hurt us last year, I think the type of offense we run with and the solid 7 man up front on our Defense, we are far superior then Mich. Hoagie obviously had a fluke season with MICH last year, just like we had a fluke season with the amount of turnovers.

I agree with the top statement... we weren't better than any of those teams last year, and have more questions with a harder schedule this year... I don't see it...

I would love to see Hoak prove to be a fluke but until that happens UM deserves to start higher... WVU and So. Car. are no brainers imo... Auburn?? Va Tech???... I suppose one could make a case for any of these (as keelio did) but yeah, I really don't see SC, WVU or Michigan... at least not going into the PRE-season...

Although I did just think of something... doesn't Steele do his rankings according to where he think teams will finish... not where they will start??? something like that... I remember he does his differently from other publications... and if that's the case... anything he backs up with his stats is valid at this point.

 

[phork]

UM has beat us 3 years straight. And frankly I am tired of saying we won the game, if it wasn't for the 4th quarter. FOOTBALL GAMES ARE 4 QUARTERS. So we, in fact, did not win that game.

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

UM has beat us 3 years straight. And frankly I am tired of saying we won the game, if it wasn't for the 4th quarter. FOOTBALL GAMES ARE 4 QUARTERS. So we, in fact, did not win that game.

Is it fair to say that we didn't lose the game but we gave it away instead?

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

or maybe we didn't get beat but we beat ourselves. That sounds better.

 

[Chris P. Bacon]

or maybe we didn't get beat but we beat ourselves. That sounds better.

Keith Arnold on NBC inside the irish I think proves the point that we beat ourselves in every loss but the Stanford game last year, and I have to agree with him. Here are some notes from his article, something we're all aware of, but a little bit more statistical info.


"Notre Dame lost five games in 2011; in only one (Stanford 28, Notre Dame 14) were they beaten beyond the turnover points margin.

•South Florida 23, Notre Dame 20. Turnover Points margin: minus-33.7 points. The Irish outgained South Florida by 254 yards but lost a staggering three turnovers inside the USF 10, one of which was returned 96 yards for a touchdown.
•Michigan 35, Notre Dame 31. Turnover Points margin: minus-8.1 points. Notre Dame outgained Michigan by 61 yards and built a 24-7 lead in the third quarter, but they lost two more turnovers in the Michigan red zone, and eventually the Wolverines’ offense allowed them to catch up.
•USC 31, Notre Dame 17. Turnover Points margin: minus-21.9 points. The Irish overcame an early 17-0 deficit to USC and were driving for the tying score, then gave up an 80-yard fumble return for a touchdown.
•Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14. Turnover Points margin: minus-8.2 points. The Notre Dame defense held Florida State to 290 yards and even returned a fumble for a touchdown of their own, but they threw two interceptions inside the FSU 30 and lost.
"

 

[Buster Bluth]

I think those are SBnation's stats.

 

[phork]

Regardless of what happened, one of these games is acceptable yearly, we had 4 or 5 of them. That fact that it happened regularly means the team wasn't prepared. Whether thats on the coach or the player, thats up for debate.

 

[NDBoiler]

Regardless of what happened, one of these games is acceptable yearly, we had 4 or 5 of them. That fact that it happened regularly means the team wasn't prepared. Whether thats on the coach or the player, thats up for debate.

IMO, that's mostly on the players. Not much coaching can do to keep a ball in a runner's hands/out of defensive back's hands once the player is on the field. We all know they are coached constantly on fundamentals and execution, but the players are ultimately the ones that have to go out there and in fact execute. Failure to do so is not from lack of coaching, the players at those moments were just "not good enough."

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Keith Arnold on NBC inside the irish I think proves the point...

I think those are SBnation's stats.

Buster's right. Bill Connelly's entire 2012 Notre Dame preview can be found here. If you haven't read the whole thing, you should. Bill's analysis is second to none.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Surely we must "regress to the mean" and put all those s to use sooner than later.

I keep telling myself this.....we can only hope, right?

 

[BGIF]

20 USF (There's that fluke team again from last year)
19 MSU (Yeah MSU never has anything)
18 SU (NO Luck but still touted for success)
17 NU
16 ARK
15 UCF (and most here were happy with O'Leary's resume malfunction. He doesn't have ND's talent. But he also doesn't have ND's schedule.)

UCF will lose to OSU and MU but there's nobody else in the Top 40 on their schedule. The rest of the schedule should be a 10 win walk.

UCF is only the 4th or 5th best team in the state of FLA but beat UGA in '10 in a bowl.

 

[BGIF]

Countdown Continues

Countdown Continues

#14 Clemson
#13 North Carolina

Steele's looking at Clemson to have only one loss (FSU). They play 5 Top 40 teams. FSU and SCA should be the competition. They have a bye the week after FSU which is the week before VT. Only FSU should be favored.


Steele calls for UNC have Double Digit Wins. Shouldn't be hard looking at that schedule. Anthony Travel would already be advertising a BCS Package if ND had UNC's schedule (regardless of QB).


#14 CL Schedule
Sep. 1 † Auburn (Atlanta) PS #29
Sep. 8 Ball St
Sep. 15 Furman DIV AA
Sep. 22 at Florida St PS # ??
Sep. 29 at Boston College
Oct. 6 Georgia Tech PS #39
Oct. 13 Bye
Oct. 20 Virginia Tech PS #24
Oct. 25 at Wake Forest (Thur)
Nov. 3 at Duke
Nov. 10 Maryland (HC)
Nov. 17 NC State
Nov. 24 South Carolina PS #23

#13 UNC Schedule
Sep. 1 Elon DIV AA
Sep. 8 at Wake Forest
Sep. 15 at Louisville PS #34
Sep. 22 East Carolina
Sep. 29 Idaho
Oct. 6 Virginia Tech PS #24
Oct. 13 at Miami, Fl
Oct. 20 at Duke
Oct. 27 NC State
Nov. 3 Bye
Nov. 10 Georgia Tech (HC) PS#39
Nov. 15 at Virginia (Thur)
Nov. 24 Maryland

 

[BGIF]

#12 Oklahoma State
#11 Ohio State

 

[BGIF]

#10 Florida

UF is one of Steel's Surprise teams and his pick for the SEC East. They play some formidable opponents but only face LSU from the SEC West and they play in Gainsville. No Alabama, Arkansas, or Auburn.


As usual the Gators play a heavy HOME schedule. Seven games in The Swamp, one at Jacksonville, and one at Tallahassee. They play In-State 9 times.

UF has to be America's Least Travelled Team. They usually leave FL 3 times a year for SEC Rivals. This year they have to go all the way to Nashville to play Vandy, 580 miles. Aside from a pair of Arizona bowls, UF hasn't left The South to face an opponent in over 2 decades.

In 105 years, aside from a couple of bowls, UF has left The South, 22 times about once every 5 years on average. When travelling a distance their record is 8-13-1. Of those 22 Road Trips only 3 were played since '65. In those 3 games they were 1-1-1.


Scheduled Games Outside The South in 105 Years of UF Football
Syracuse, Syracuse '91, a Loss
Rutgers in Giant's Stadium in '86, a Win
Southern Cal in L.A. in '83, a Tie
Northwestern, Evanston, Sept '65, a Win
UCLA, L.A. '58, a Win
Loyala Marymount, Pasadena '51, a Win
Tulsa, Tulsa '49, a Win
Villanova, Philly Oct '42, a Loss
Maryland, College Park, Oct '41, a Loss
Villanova, Philly Oct '40, a Loss
BC, Boston, Oct '39, a Win
Maryland, College Park, Oct '39, a Win
BC, Boston, Oct '38, a Loss
Temple, Philly, Oct '37, a Loss
Syracuse, Syracuse, Oct '31, a Loss
UCLA L.A. Nov '31, a Loss
Chicago, Chicago, Oct '30, a Win
Harvard, Cambridge, Nov '29, a Loss
Army, West Point, Nov '24, a Loss
Army, Oct '23, a Loss
Harvard, Cambridge, Nov '22, a Loss
Indiana, Bloomington, Nov '16, a Loss




UF 2012 Schedule
Sep. 1 Bowling Green
Sep. 8 at Texas A&M PS #30
Sep. 15 at Tennessee PS #27
Sep. 22 Kentucky
Sep. 29 BYE
Oct. 6 LSU PS TOP 9
Oct. 13 at Vanderbilt
Oct. 20 South Carolina PS #23
Oct. 27 † Georgia (Jacksonville) PS ??
Nov. 3 Missouri PS ??
Nov. 10 Louisiana (HC)
Nov. 17 Jacksonville St DIV AA
Nov. 24 at Florida St PS TOP 9

 

[phork]

He had us #6 last year....

 

[ACamp1900]

Interesting...

Hard to see Clemson losing only one game... GT is a nightmare matchup on scheme alone... VT is always difficult... South Carolina is as good as they have ever been... Auburn and FSU....

that's is just their difficult games... and Clemson is probably the biggest mirror to ND in the country over the last ten years... they always seem to find games to lose that they should have no business losing...

 

[irishfan]

He had us #6 last year....

As did Athlon Sports. Lot of people misfired on ND last year. Steele was solid minus that.