Walker Wins Wis Recall, Obama Wins Exit Poll

[BGIF]

The pundits claimed this Recall Election would forecast the 2012 Presidential Election. There appears to be mixed results.

Walker won by 7 points,53% to 46% , becoming the first governor to win a recall election. His Lt Gov and at least 3 of the 4 State Senaors on the ballot also won.

Meanwhile exit polling showed a flipp in the numbers when choosing Obama or Romney. Obama won by 6 points. That considerably less than the winning margin Obama had beating McCain in Wisconsin in the last Presidential Election.

Needless to say both Repubs and Dems are spinning the vote went their way in predicting a Nov '12 win.

Dems are saying the Poll reversed the recall vote numbers which is true BUT they didn't turn out the vote to win the Recall which was the primary objective. The Unions did not get it done.

Repubs say Obama lost support which is also true and while cut into his support they didn't beat him in the Polls.

I haven't been able to find the breakdown of registered Dems, Repubs, and Independents to gage which group made the difference in the Recall and then in the Exit Poll. I thought the Dems had a considerable edge in registered voters but can't confirm that.

Interestingly 47% in the Exit Poll said they like The D Party while 50% did NOT like The D Party. The exact same breakdown existed for those liking The R Party and those NOT liking it.

Likewise 60% of the people said they like unions but the union side of the Recall Election only got 46% of the vote.


Strikes me that the voters voted their wallets on the Recall (agreed with the need to cut gov employees benefits to reduce budget) but won't do that on the national level next Fall.

 

[BGIF]

Local coverage

Wisconsin recall vote: Walker wins | Duluth News Tribune | Duluth, Minnesota

National coverage

Wisconsin's Walker survives recall by wide margin | Fox News

Wisconsin Gov. Walker overcomes recall effort - latimes.com

 

[notredomer23]

I am glad Walker won because he is doing a great job in Wisconsin. I am not sure though that either party should declare this as a victory for them(on the national level). I do not see how the Democrats can spin it as a victory for them on the national level considering both their candidates lost by a decent margin. I also can not see how the Republicans can declare it as a decisive victory considering there was a recall in the first place and I am pretty sure only two governors have ever lost in a recall election, so that would have been a crushing blow if Walker did not win. Added to the fact the results of the exit polls. Whether or not though Wisconsin goes Republican in the coming election I do not believe matters too much. I mean the last time Wisconsin went Republican in a presidential election was 1984 with Ronald Reagan where everyone but Minnesota went Republican. If Romney somehow manages to win that state, that would just be bonus to a decisive victory IMO.

 

[Domina Nostra]

Not picking sides but:

"I do not see how the Democrats can spin it as a victory for them on the national level considering both their candidates lost by a decent margin."

The blow to the democrats was that they lost a fully engaged battle over public-sector unions, which are a significant part of their base and worldview.

"I also can not see how the Republicans can declare it as a decisive victory considering there was a recall in the first place and I am pretty sure only two governors have ever lost in a recall election, so that would have been a crushing blow if Walker did not win."

Its just the opposite. Walker is the first Govenor to SURVIVE recall. Walker was just elected in 2010 running on this exact issue, and you can't initiate a rcall for 1 year, so the recall was more of a frontal assualt of people who disagreed with him from the get go than some kind of referendum on his policies or performance. Its a huge win because it proves that public unions can be beat head on. They also lost in 2 California elections yesterday.

The good part for the Democrats is that Pres. Obama still won in exit polling.

 

[irishpat183]

[/IMG]

Nuff said. Walker is proof that people are tired of the Unions and their hypocrisy. They fight against corporations and greed....yet they're just as corrupt and greedy as the corporations. Unions fighting for the people went out the window long ago.

Nice waste of tax payer money, democrats. This was NEVER in doubt.

 

[ab2cmiller]

If Obama is taking comfort in the exit polls, then he's probably not relying on good info. From what I read the same exit polls showed a dead heat in the Governor's race, yet Walker won by at least 7 points. If the Presidential portion of the exit poll was off by the same amount, you practically have a dead heat.

 

[IrishLax]

[/IMG]

Nuff said. Walker is proof that people are tired of the Unions and their hypocrisy. They fight against corporations and greed....yet they're just as corrupt and greedy as the corporations. Unions fighting for the people went out the window long ago.

Nice waste of tax payer money, democrats. This was NEVER in doubt.

So, so true. In construction, union workers tend to cost twice as much and work half as hard.

 

[Grahambo]

 

[BGIF]

So, so true. In construction, union workers tend to cost twice as much and work half as hard.

Welcome to the wonders of Davis-Bacon.

 

[BGIF]

... Whether or not though Wisconsin goes Republican in the coming election I do not believe matters too much. I mean the last time Wisconsin went Republican in a presidential election was 1984 with Ronald Reagan where everyone but Minnesota went Republican. If Romney somehow manages to win that state, that would just be bonus to a decisive victory IMO.

Obama beat McCain decisively, 14 points but Kerry only won by 11,000 votes and the election before that the difference was 5,500 votes.

 

[Irish Houstonian]

So, so true. In construction, union workers tend to cost twice as much and work half as hard.

I don't know much (or anything...) about construction, but my wife works in education and I'm positive that the teachers' unions are the single most destructive element in public education today. They're against anything that provides accountability or measures their performance, from testing to vouchers to tenure. Just the other day there was a story about how it took 5 years for a NY school to fire one teacher.

There are similar horror stories about having to take all the terrible teachers and just putting them all in a room together -- with no students -- because they literally do more harm than good when interacting with children. Of course, their pay remained constant...

 

[RDU Irish]

If Obama is taking comfort in the exit polls, then he's probably not relying on good info. From what I read the same exit polls showed a dead heat in the Governor's race, yet Walker won by at least 7 points. If the Presidential portion of the exit poll was off by the same amount, you practically have a dead heat.

BINGO! Everyone says selection bias but I think part of it is unions bring out their vote, but can't go in the booth with them to make sure they go the way they want. Plenty of union members know their deals are excessive in WI. I have seen as many has 50% are opting out of their unions, they much rather have the $2000+ in their pockets rather than the thug leaders who wasted their money on this pissing match.

To the contrary, exit polls showed 9% believe recalls should not be allowed and over 60% think they should only be for illegal behavior. Walker got 90% of the 9% and a very large margin of the 60%+. Much of Walker's extra support could be attributed to the juvenile tantrum underlying the recall.

Wisconsin is a wacky state politically, almost as much as Minnesota. Russ Feingold is right up their with Al Franken in my book of most liberal wackos out there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker and Ron Johnson are right up there with my list of most principled, fiscally conservative politicians out there. Oh, and Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura to governor.

 

[Rizzophil]

I don't know much (or anything...) about construction, but my wife works in education and I'm positive that the teachers' unions are the single most destructive element in public education today. They're against anything that provides accountability or measures their performance, from testing to vouchers to tenure. Just the other day there was a story about how it took 5 years for a NY school to fire one teacher.

There are similar horror stories about having to take all the terrible teachers and just putting them all in a room together -- with no students -- because they literally do more harm than good when interacting with children. Of course, their pay remained constant...

I agree with this. If we could just eliminate the jobs of the bottom 10% of teacher's, the education system would be drastically improved.

 

[RDU Irish]

And Walker is balancing the budget without slight of hand and shell games. In my time in Wisconsin, the previous Democrat governor raided the transportation fund, sold tobacco settlement bonds and raided the medical malpractice trust (which I think was legally overturned) among other things to "balance" the budget. I may be wrong, but I believe the medical trust was made whole and that was part of the problem with the $3.6B shortfall Walker walked into.

Wisconsin actually has a great model for medical malpractice insurance, one of the cheapest in the country to practice medicine since the state fund (funded by doctors) provides the "catastrophic" coverage of over $1 million which dramatically lowers the cost of regular malpractice insurance.

 

[Bluto]

So, so true. In construction, union workers tend to cost twice as much and work half as hard.

Having worked in construction for the better part of my life (from ditch digger to management) I feel I can tell you with great confidence that this is simply not true. It's actually kind of insulting considering many of the hardest working people I've ever met were/are union members. As far as Davis Bacon goes the non-union workers at companies I've worked at love it. When it comes to political discussions people seem to love to rely on anecdotes for some reason. It's not surprising Walker won given the short time frame of the election cycle and the fact he out spent the opposition something like 7.5 to 1.

 

[RDU Irish]

If teachers are so abused, why are there literally hundreds of applicants for elementary school openings? Also drives me nuts that no one annualizes their salaries and benefits. They only work 9 months out of the year! Pretty nice to be off work when the kids are off school.

Unions have over reached for decades. Now it is being exposed. This election is more about public unions than anything. Just look at the protests they put on and how they harrass and intimidate people. They are bullies and the people paying the bills are sick of it.

 

[RDU Irish]

Having worked in construction for the better part of my life (from ditch digger to management) I can feel you with great confidence that this is simply not true. It's actually kind of insulting considering several of the hardest working people I've ever met were/are union members.

Who is easier to get rid of, a worthless union member or a worthless non-union employee? Who is easier to reward for working harder than their counterparts? Union members are on scale based on seniority. You fire someone and you have to start at the bottom and keep the top.

Names like Gotti are associated with unions, not Gandi.

 

[Bluto]

Who is easier to get rid of, a worthless union member or a worthless non-union employee? Who is easier to reward for working harder than their counterparts? Union members are on scale based on seniority. You fire someone and you have to start at the bottom and keep the top.

Names like Gotti are associated with unions, not Gandi.

Yeah names like Tim McVaye and David Koresh are associated with white, mid-western and southern gun owners. Last I recalled the Catholic Church and Ceasar Chavez were closely associated with unions as well. I agree unions like any institution can be corrupt. If we follow your line of thinking that corruption of an instittution is grounds for eliminating it then the US private financial sector should have been tossed in the trash can a long time ago. One simple fact is that there is a direct correlation between union membership, wages and wealth distribution in this country. As union membership has declined wages for the middle class have stagnated and the distribution of wealth has increasingly concentrated in an upward direction.

Catholic Church on Labor Unions - YouTube

 

[Bluto]

I appreciate the varied opinions found here but some of the stereotyping is completely out of line.

 

[Irish8248]

I knew there was a reason I loved this board... Having being an elected official and working for a state senator, I can tell you unions are crippling the middle class, especially in NY. There's no ability or freedom to right size, pension costs are through the roof, and the impact on a budget means its 100xs harder to make up the gap between tax relief and more taxes.. The pendulum is way too far in the corner if unions, this election begins to push it back

 

[irishpat183]

Having worked in construction for the better part of my life (from ditch digger to management) I feel I can tell you with great confidence that this is simply not true. It's actually kind of insulting considering many of the hardest working people I've ever met were/are union members. As far as Davis Bacon goes the non-union workers at companies I've worked at love it. When it comes to political discussions people seem to love to rely on anecdotes for some reason. It's not surprising Walker won given the short time frame of the election cycle and the fact he out spent the opposition something like 7.5 to 1.

He won TWICE.

The reason it's not suprising, isn't the money, is that people aren't putting up with Union crap anymore. They're not needed.

You want better pay and benny's?? Work harder, increase your education level, or find a new job. You want retirement money? Save some every month. You want health care? Make adjustments in your budget every month like the REST OF THE COUNTRY.

I have a real problem with Unions simply because it's not an option to join. It's forced. Not to mention, they want above and beyond what the private sector worker gets. And then they have the audacity to talk about "corporate greed"??? Gimmie a break.

The real victory here, is it's estimated that about 50% of union members will quit the union after this election. Shows how popular unions are with the citizens.

Question: If being in a union is that d*mn good, why would they lose 50% because of this election? Everyone would join if it was that popular and such a great idea.

 

[IrishLax]

Having worked in construction for the better part of my life (from ditch digger to management) I can feel you with great confidence that this is simply not true. It's actually kind of insulting considering several of the hardest working people I've ever met were/are union members.

OK, well I'm a consulting structural engineer who has had to work on Government, union, and non-union jobs... from as big as the $2B Secure Border Initiative to as small as a $100k facade caulking job.

I can say without fail that non-union contractors are both the easiest to work with and cheapest... and the end quality of work is always the same. Because that's the beauty of QC and oversight and retainage... the job is always going to get done right. Of course I'm being stereotypical and not all union workers have work ethic/attitude issues. In general, ALL construction workers work "hard." That's the nature of the job. I respect the hell out of construction workers of all different trades. But whereas illegals (or legal Hispanics) will come in and work a 14 hour day on a weekend without a peep... union workers bitch and moan the entire day and work like molasses... all while being paid double time+ on a base hourly wage that is already 2x to 3x what the guy who doesn't speak good English is making. They don't realize how thankful they should be to their state government for supporting unions instead of right-to-work and inflated their perceived "value"... ever compare bid sheets from a union vs. non-union shop? It's beyond comical. And I don't really blame the workers.... I blame the union leadership.

IMO, the Government does it best through the Davis-Bacon Act. Gets people paid at a fair rate while removing the entitlement/blood-sucking union leadership that grabs a huge chunk of workers paychecks. I always think the attitude problems have most to do with how unions instill a culture of discontent and get everyone to think they're perpetually not getting a fair shake or getting "screwed by the man." Sometimes this carries over to job sites.

The "work half as hard" half of the joke/adage comes from how hard some union workers are to work with thanks in large part to the aforementioned. Try to tell a union worker he's not following the drawings? He just launches into a rant about how "I"VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR 25 YEARS!!!" Most of them fight you on absolutely everything but some downright throw a hissy fit if you point out an error... others just ignore you... I once told a union worker to make a correction to formwork... he said he would... and then instead he went on a break to the 7/11 in the hopes that I'd forget about it and the concrete trucks would show up and I'd let them pour as is. Unions get a bad rap because of guys like that.

 

[irishpat183]

Yeah names like Tim McVaye and David Koresh are associated with white, mid-western and southern gun owners. Last I recalled the Catholic Church and Ceasar Chavez were closely associated with unions as well. I agree unions like any institution can be corrupt. If we follow your line of thinking that corruption of an instittution is grounds for eliminating it then the US private financial sector should have been tossed in the trash can a long time ago. One simple fact is that there is a direct correlation between union membership, wages and wealth distribution in this country. As union membership has declined wages for the middle class have stagnated and the distribution of wealth has increasingly concentrated in an upward direction.

Catholic Church on Labor Unions - YouTube

There is also a correlation between union states and unemployment. They drive away business and competition.

And I'd like to see what professions have "stagnated" wages. Because I've made more money every year over the past 5 years.

Minimum wage workers are just that. I don't think a guy sweeping floors at the the local factory deserves 70k a year, full benny's and a cush retirement plan. Sorry, I just don't.

And you wonder why companies are moving outta those states.

 

[irishpat183]

OK, well I'm a consulting structural engineer who has had to work on Government, union, and non-union jobs... from as big as the $2B Secure Border Initiative to as small as a $100k facade caulking job.

I can say without fail that non-union contractors are both the easiest to work with and cheapest... and the end quality of work is always the same. Because that's the beauty of QC and oversight and retainage... the job is always going to get done right. Of course I'm being stereotypical and not all union workers have work ethic/attitude issues. In general, ALL construction workers work "hard." That's the nature of the job. I respect the hell out of construction workers of all different trades. But whereas illegals (or legal Hispanics) will come in and work a 14 hour day on a weekend without a peep... union workers bitch and moan the entire day and work like molasses... all while being paid double time+ on a base hourly wage that is already 2x to 3x what the guy who doesn't speak good English is making. They don't realize how thankful they should be to their state government for supporting unions instead of right-to-work and inflated their perceived "value"... ever compare bid sheets from a union vs. non-union shop? It's beyond comical. And I don't really blame the workers.... I blame the union leadership.

IMO, the Government does it best through the Davis-Bacon Act. Gets people paid at a fair rate while removing the entitlement/blood-sucking union leadership that grabs a huge chunk of workers paychecks. I always think the attitude problems have most to do with how unions instill a culture of discontent and get everyone to think they're perpetually not getting a fair shake or getting "screwed by the man." Sometimes this carries over to job sites.

The "work half as hard" half of the joke/adage comes from how hard some union workers are to work with thanks in large part to the aforementioned. Try to tell a union worker he's not following the drawings? He just launches into a rant about how "I"VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR 25 YEARS!!!" Most of them fight you on absolutely everything but some downright throw a hissy fit if you point out an error... others just ignore you... I once told a union worker to make a correction to formwork... he said he would... and then instead he went on a break to the 7/11 in the hopes that I'd forget about it and the concrete trucks would show up and I'd let them pour as is. Unions get a bad rap because of guys like that.

Exactly. They union bosses have brainwashed them into thinking they're worth more than they are. You're not entitled to anything in this world. And you're not entitled to more pay just because you're afflilated with a union.

 

[irishpat183]

And just to throw something out there....

I'll take my cleaning crew, of mostly hispanics, in the right-to-work state of Texas over ANY union cleaning crew in any union state.

I welcome the challange. They work twice as hard and I pay them well for it. Because if they don't?? They get fired.

Funny how people that fear losing their jobs, not just "reassignment", will work a little harder.

 

[Bluto]

Irish Lax those are all good points and what my experience has been is that there are bad workers all around. Davis-Bacon would not exist without Unions though and again organized labor is the only counter balance to corporations in terms of power in most countries and play a very important role in that regard. Why would people choose to leave unions? Not sure. Dissalusionment maybe? Regardless I find that 50% number hard to believe without a credible source. Nobody wins elections due to money? Give me a break.

 

[RDU Irish]

Why is Boeing being held up in South Carolina?

And what Lax and Irishpat said.

 

[Domina Nostra]

Having worked in construction for the better part of my life (from ditch digger to management) I feel I can tell you with great confidence that this is simply not true. It's actually kind of insulting considering many of the hardest working people I've ever met were/are union members. As far as Davis Bacon goes the non-union workers at companies I've worked at love it. When it comes to political discussions people seem to love to rely on anecdotes for some reason. It's not surprising Walker won given the short time frame of the election cycle and the fact he out spent the opposition something like 7.5 to 1.

There is a lot of anecdote in this response to be claiming that people are voting based on anecdote!

As far as spending 7.5 to 1, no one was confused about the issues involved. Both sides of the argument were presented to the public. That's the biggest concern when lots of money are involved. And did they monetize the union manhours that were spent?

Remember that this was a RECALL election brought two years after Walker won a regular elction. The narrative here is not the Republicans won an election by pouring money into the state, but that the Republicans mobilized a ton of resources to prevent the unions from undermining the 2010 election.

 

[Bluto]

There is also a correlation between union states and unemployment. They drive away business and competition.

And I'd like to see what professions have "stagnated" wages. Because I've made more money every year over the past 5 years.

Minimum wage workers are just that. I don't think a guy sweeping floors at the the local factory deserves 70k a year, full benny's and a cush retirement plan. Sorry, I just don't.

And you wonder why companies are moving outta those states.

I was referring to middle class incomes in general. See the graph below. When I did my masters research I found that wages in the landscape trades had remained essentially flat for the last 20 years.

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/unionincome.jpg?mobile=wp

 

[Bluto]

There is a lot of anecdote in this response to be claiming that people are voting based on anecdote!

As far as spending 7.5 to 1, no one was confused about the issues involved. Both sides of the argument were presented to the public. That's the biggest concern when lots of money are involved. And did they monetize the union manhours that were spent?

Remember that this was a RECALL election brought two years after Walker won a regular elction. The narrative here is not the Republicans won an election by pouring money into the state, but that the Republicans mobilized a ton of resources to prevent the unions from undermining the 2010 election.

Or it could be that money from corporate interests from outside the state were poured into the state to help swing the election.