Upset alert 2013

[IrishYYC]

Glad Sparty won. Meyer's face at the end was priceless. First real team they played and look what happened.

FSU and Auburn should be a pretty exciting game.

 

[TheChosen1]

If ND was in the Big 10 They'd be playing in the Rose Bowl

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Glad Sparty won. Meyer's face at the end was priceless. First real team they played and look what happened.

FSU and Auburn should be a pretty exciting game.

F$U should win by 17.

 

[philipm31]

FSU has played NOBODY all year. And don't tell me that Clemson was good after they got ROLLED in their only two big games of the year by FSU and South Carolina--who is much weaker than their inflated record indicates.

FSU may win, but they will have to really, REALLY up their game because Auburn is tough to beat. Just ask Aaron Murray, Johnny Football, AJ McCarron, et al.

Nice to see UM get his $hit handed to him, though, that is for sure.

Calling it now, Auburn beats FSU by ten.

 

[philipm31]

And by the way, the Irish faithful have been trotting out the mantra that it would show when OSU had to play a real team. Well, they did, and they lost.

Why not actually hold FSU to the same standard of proof?

Just because we will be playing them more often does not make them some sort of Teflon group. They still have not proven they are a great team, certainly not after the way the ACC "played" all year long.

They're every bit as suspect as OSU was/is.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

FSU clobbered everyone they played all year. They were out of their league. If Bama was in the ACC, they would be getting the same results while still being just as good as they are in the SEC. It's dumb to compare FSU to Ohio State. FSU dismantles teams. Ohio State snuck by crappy teams.

Auburn got to the National Championship out of luck, and their luck will run out.

 

[philipm31]

FSU clobbered everyone they played all year. They were out of their league. If Bama was in the ACC, they would be getting the same results while still being just as good as they are in the SEC. It's dumb to compare FSU to Ohio State. FSU dismantles teams. Ohio State snuck by crappy teams.

Auburn got to the National Championship out of luck, and their luck will run out.

So was that your thinking going into the National Title game against Alabama last year, concerning ND's season? I know that I was not thinking that way. As much as it pains me to say it, Auburn deserves their shot every bit as much as Alabama did last year, and I fully expect them to give FSU fits and probably win the title, again, for the second time in four years.

Beating crap teams by a ton or a little does not diminish the fact that neither OSU or FSU have played anything resembling a tough schedule, particularly OSU.

 

[IrishYYC]

F$U should win by 17.

Maybe but I find that hard to believe considering who they played this year. Just like the above poster said, FSU really hasn't played anyone either. The ACC was a joke this year just like the B1G was.

Auburn beat Johnny Football on the road and in 3 straight weeks beat Georgia, Bama, and Mizzou. There only loss was at LSU. Granted in two of those games they got miracle breaks but just like last year with us, a win's a win no matter how you get it.

Point being, you might be right. FSU might smash Auburn and I hope they do just cause I'm sick of the SEC and all their fans. However, it's still the SEC and until someone knocks them off, you still got to to give them respect.

That's why I said it should be an exciting game. FSU will probably be 7-10 point favorites and rightfully so, they've smoked everyone they've played but I still think it will be closer then most people think.

 

[IrishYYC]

Line opened FSU -9.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

So was that your thinking going into the National Title game against Alabama last year, concerning ND's season? I know that I was not thinking that way. As much as it pains me to say it, Auburn deserves their shot every bit as much as Alabama did last year, and I fully expect them to give FSU fits and probably win the title, again, for the second time in four years.

Beating crap teams by a ton or a little does not diminish the fact that neither OSU or FSU have played anything resembling a tough schedule, particularly OSU.

Well we did beat several solid teams last year, but we DID get exposed. The evidence would suggest that we were better than OSU last year or this year, but wasn't even a challenger to Bama.

Auburn/FSU will pin on FSU having an answer for Auburn's read option. My money is on FSU.

 

[ickythump1225]

I honestly don't think FSU will win. And I will be cheering heartily for Auburn because I HATE FSU. I normally hate the SEC but...screw it...SEC! SEC! SEC!

 

[peoriairish]

I honestly don't think FSU will win. And I will be cheering heartily for Auburn because I HATE FSU. I normally hate the SEC but...screw it...SEC! SEC! SEC!

No. No no no. Hell no. The SEC needs to lose and that's all there is to it. They CAN NOT have 8 in a row. It needs to stop.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I honestly don't think FSU will win. And I will be cheering heartily for Auburn because I HATE FSU. I normally hate the SEC but...screw it...SEC! SEC! SEC!

A group of friends and I have an open bet. We all chose our team and put money in the pot. First team from the group to win a NC gets the pot. Obviously I chose ND, there is also a UofM, FSU, and UGA. This started prior to last season. Obviously it didn't work out for me. FSU needs to lose so I don't lose $. Fuck FSU, go SEC.

 

[IrishLax]

The only thing that can stop FSU is coaching. On a strictly talent basis, FSU's defense is so much better than Auburn's defense it's scary to think about.

FSU's offense should have no problem whatsoever swiss cheesing Auburn's D like most every team in the SEC did this year. The key is getting stops of Auburn's attack. Unless Malzahn drastically out-schemes and out-coaches Fisher's crew, FSU has the athleticism on D to hold Auburn south of 30. So I think it falls squarely on the shoulders of Auburn's coaches to win this game for the Tigers... and I think they very well may be able to do it.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Not to mention FSU will have a month to prepare for Auburn's offense, a luxury no other team had this season.

Couple that with most team's propensity to come out tight in the title game (Bama excluded) due to time off, nerves, etc. and this won't be the laser light scoreboard show it appears to be on paper.

I think it will be much more low scoring than anticipated, but since I'm always wrong, it will probably be 51-48.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Auburn is just so lucky to even be here. They needed that freak play against Georgia, Nick Saban's worst coaching in his life, and a bunch of teams to choke just to give them the opportunity. "Team of destiny" isn't a real thing. FSU will clobber them all over.

 

[chubler]

Auburn is just so lucky to even be here. They needed that freak play against Georgia, Nick Saban's worst coaching in his life, and a bunch of teams to choke just to give them the opportunity. "Team of destiny" isn't a real thing. FSU will clobber them all over.

I think it's more important that Auburn's offense makes heavy use of confusing the defense. Oregon's offense is like that as well, and we've all seen it struggle against elite teams who either had time before a bowl to prepare, or are Stanford and don't need a ton of extra time because they've seen it before.

I don't think Auburn can expect to simply outscore FSU, they're gonna have to hope their D can play a lot better than it has all year, and convert on the 3-4 throws Winston makes every game that he can't get away with against real competition if they want to keep this competitive.

 

[RammerJammer91]

Auburn is just so lucky to even be here. They needed that freak play against Georgia, Nick Saban's worst coaching in his life, and a bunch of teams to choke just to give them the opportunity. "Team of destiny" isn't a real thing. FSU will clobber them all over.

You could make a case that the 2010 Auburn team was a "team of destiny." They got lucky in the Clemson game when the receiver dropped what would have been the game winning pass in overtime and the snapper screwed up what would have been a good field goal by getting a penalty (the kicker then missed a relatively easy FG on the next play). They got some pretty lucky breaks against LSU, South Carolina and a 6-7 Kentucky team, and overcame a huge deficit against Alabama in the Iron Bowl, when the momentum swung in their favor after a Mark Ingram fumble, as Alabama was about to go up 28-0. We'll just have to wait and see if this Auburn team is a "team of destiny."

 

[GowerND11]

People are talking about FSU and comparing them to OSU and their schedules. There is one huge difference: FSU played that schedule the way they should. FSU dominated the schedule, sans the BC game. They have the number one defense in pure ppg, and the second in ppg for. While that isn't altered for metrics, that is still very impressive. OSU struggled too much this season (See Illinois game). I think it will be interesting to see how FSU prepares for Auburn, and I have to agree with LAX that FSU has the athletes to limit the Auburn offense. It will be up to the Auburn coaches to see if they can come up with a great gameplan.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Early line is FSU -9.5

 

[philipm31]

People seem to forget that Malzahn has coached in the National Championship game, and he knows how to prepare for defenses, whether for one week of six weeks.

He masterminded an Auburn upset of #1 Alabama TWICE in the last 4 years. They also just flat out played a better, more difficult schedule THROUGHT the entire year than FSU.

I think people really overestimate how good Fisher is as a coach. As far as I can tell, he is not all that great at coaching in bowl games, or in close games.

Oh, and Auburn did run the ball for EIGHT HUNDRED YARDS in the last two weeks, against Bama and Mizzou.

Is there anyone who thinks that if the Noles are better on D than the Tide? Me neither.

I totally expect that Malzahn will outscheme Fisher, badly, and that Auburn will run, run, run all day....and then pass when they need to do so.

It will be close but big game experience will carry the day, and Gus has more experience winning in the big games than Jimbo does. I think it will show, especially with the fact that Auburn's Seniors were all there as Freshman and know what it takes to get there and to finish it off, more than this current crop of Noles.

Now, don't get me wrong. The Noles may be very good in the ACC, and I think they are on their way back to being a dominant national power again, but I do not think they are the best team in the country, just yet.

 

[woolybug25]

Auburn wins and I hate it…

The Rule of 3…. Malzahn fits it, Jimbo doesn't….

http://www.irishenvy.com/forums/notre-dame-football/70555-rule-3-a.html

 

[irishog77]

People seem to forget that Malzahn has coached in the National Championship game, and he knows how to prepare for defenses, whether for one week of six weeks.

He masterminded an Auburn upset of #1 Alabama TWICE in the last 4 years. They also just flat out played a better, more difficult schedule THROUGHT the entire year than FSU.

I think people really overestimate how good Fisher is as a coach. As far as I can tell, he is not all that great at coaching in bowl games, or in close games.

Oh, and Auburn did run the ball for EIGHT HUNDRED YARDS in the last two weeks, against Bama and Mizzou.

Is there anyone who thinks that if the Noles are better on D than the Tide? Me neither.

I totally expect that Malzahn will outscheme Fisher, badly, and that Auburn will run, run, run all day....and then pass when they need to do so.

It will be close but big game experience will carry the day, and Gus has more experience winning in the big games than Jimbo does. I think it will show, especially with the fact that Auburn's Seniors were all there as Freshman and know what it takes to get there and to finish it off, more than this current crop of Noles.

Now, don't get me wrong. The Noles may be very good in the ACC, and I think they are on their way back to being a dominant national power again, but I do not think they are the best team in the country, just yet.

I do.

Besides, Jimbo Fisher has coached in the National Championship game as well. And Gus' other win against Alabama came against them when they already had 2 losses. Jimbo has 13 years coaching experience in the SEC, in addition to his time at FSU. Jimbo has more big game experience and big game-winning experience than Gus.

Sure, Auburn may beat FSU...but I don't think it'll be for the reasons you stated.

 

[philipm31]

I do.

Besides, Jimbo Fisher has coached in the National Championship game as well. And Gus' other win against Alabama came against them when they already had 2 losses. Jimbo has 13 years coaching experience in the SEC, in addition to his time at FSU. Jimbo has more big game experience and big game-winning experience than Gus.

Sure, Auburn may beat FSU...but I don't think it'll be for the reasons you stated.

I just do not think that he ACC is really that much better than the BIG, and all of their stats were gained at the expense of an atrocious conference. The SEC teams that ran roughshod over Auburn were led by experienced QBs, or at least dynamic ones like Johnny Football...and they were all in the SEC.

And by the way, the Tide's 2nd loss that season was TO Auburn, at Alabama. They did not already have two losses when Auburn beat them. If they had been able to beat Auburn, they would have played Oregon for the National Title, not Auburn.

As much as I hate the slobberfest that is "the SEC is the best conference in football", there really is no argument that their top 4 or 5 teams are generally better than the top 4 or 5 teams in any other conference...and that kind of competitive edge really can show itself when it comes to uber-big games like this.

Also, I have not watched a single FSU game in years due to being overseas and then not caring about the Noles because they sucked for so long, but I just do not think that Jimbo is going to be able to outscheme Gus, if Kirby Smart--who is widely acknowledged as one, if not THE best, defensive coordinators in the nation--has not been able to do anything to stop or slow down Auburn from outscoring the Tide 2/3 games, even though Bama led in the 4th Qtr in every game. 2011 was a step backwards because of Cam's leaving early, but without Gus, the Tigers would have been just as bad as they were the following year, if not for his offensive genius.

And just because FSU appears to have NFL talent all over the field does not mean they win the game, either. Bobby Bowden had more NFL talent than most people for a decade and he did not win the big games all the time.

I just believe that by the end of the season, it was apparent that overcoming obstacles and challenges had becomme the Tigers calling card.

Where is a game where FSU struggled? Where is a game where they trailed in the 4th? Have they faced any in-game adversity yet?

No. Auburn has face a ton, and I just think that that kind of experience could be a big reason why Auburn wins it again.

 

[PerthDomer]

Florida State's D is legit though. #2 yardage, #1 scoring, tops in generating picks. I think they can just sit their corners on islands all game and stack the box. Their offense is pretty darn good too. Honestly I think Bama is 14 points better than Auburn. A lot of fluky/fortuitous things happened for Auburn to pull that game off (in addition to them being at home).

I'll take FSU in a route. ACC! ACC! ACC! ACC!

 

[irishog77]

I just do not think that he ACC is really that much better than the BIG, and all of their stats were gained at the expense of an atrocious conference. The SEC teams that ran roughshod over Auburn were led by experienced QBs, or at least dynamic ones like Johnny Football...and they were all in the SEC.

And by the way, the Tide's 2nd loss that season was TO Auburn, at Alabama. They did not already have two losses when Auburn beat them. If they had been able to beat Auburn, they would have played Oregon for the National Title, not Auburn.

As much as I hate the slobberfest that is "the SEC is the best conference in football", there really is no argument that their top 4 or 5 teams are generally better than the top 4 or 5 teams in any other conference...and that kind of competitive edge really can show itself when it comes to uber-big games like this.

Also, I have not watched a single FSU game in years due to being overseas and then not caring about the Noles because they sucked for so long, but I just do not think that Jimbo is going to be able to outscheme Gus, if Kirby Smart--who is widely acknowledged as one, if not THE best, defensive coordinators in the nation--has not been able to do anything to stop or slow down Auburn from outscoring the Tide 2/3 games, even though Bama led in the 4th Qtr in every game. 2011 was a step backwards because of Cam's leaving early, but without Gus, the Tigers would have been just as bad as they were the following year, if not for his offensive genius.

And just because FSU appears to have NFL talent all over the field does not mean they win the game, either. Bobby Bowden had more NFL talent than most people for a decade and he did not win the big games all the time.

I just believe that by the end of the season, it was apparent that overcoming obstacles and challenges had becomme the Tigers calling card.

Where is a game where FSU struggled? Where is a game where they trailed in the 4th? Have they faced any in-game adversity yet?

No. Auburn has face a ton, and I just think that that kind of experience could be a big reason why Auburn wins it again.

I somewhat agree here. Pulling out games you should have lost, albeit with with 2 1-in-a-million luck plays, certainly helps teams believe they can win games. And confidence and belief in winning is HUGE...in all sports.

But that reasoning on why you believe they'll win is different than:

It will be close but big game experience will carry the day, and Gus has more experience winning in the big games than Jimbo does. I think it will show, especially with the fact that Auburn's Seniors were all there as Freshman and know what it takes to get there and to finish it off, more than this current crop of Noles.

Malzahn doesn't have more big game experience than Fisher. And Auburn was a dumpster fire the 2 years sandwiched between NCG appearances...one of which Gus was around for.

As for the rest of your post-- Alabama had already lost 2 games when they played Auburn in 2010. Alabama wasn't anywhere close to sniffing a Natty appearance. Kirby Smart is 4-2 against Auburn as DC, 3-2 against Malzahn, with the losses coming in 2010 and 2013. No clue where you got the 2 out of 3 from. I wouldn't say FSU has "sucked for so long" either. They haven't been as good as they were from ~'87-'02, but they haven't sucked. They were 12-2 last year and won a BCS Bowl. Meanwhile, Auburn was 3-9 and winless in conference play. They had 2 wins over DI teams- New Mexico State and Louisiana-Monroe (in OT).

Add in the fact that you've (admittedly) not even watched a Seminole game in years, and it's tough to give your post much credence.

Again, Auburn pulling out close games this season may very well help them against FSU. It may not. FSU may have actually won every game this year by 14 or more because they were just that much better than every team they played. Sometimes teams don't struggle because their players and coaches are that much better than their opponent. Sure, their schedule turned out to be a bit of a dud, but they still beat every team like they were supposed to do. FSU beat Maryland 63-0. At the time, Maryland was ranked #25. I think it was the worst defeat EVER for a ranked team. Why do I bring that game up? Because FSU not only took care of bidness, but it's tough to believe Auburn (or Alabama...or LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, or Kentucky) would post a similar result. They beat Florida by 30...in the swamp (Florida's worst loss of the year, even worse than all those SEC teams). FSU dominated (and "dominated" may be an understatement) virtually every team it played this year.

Does all this mean FSU will win? No. Hopefully it will be a great game to watch.

 

[koonja]

I want FSU to roll Auburn, but if I was a betting man, I'd take Aurburn at -9 all day. Underdogs typically are the smartest play in NC games. I think that's a fact, but I'd have to check.

 

[phork]

I want FSU to roll Auburn, but if I was a betting man, I'd take Aurburn at -9 all day. Underdogs typically are the smartest play in NC games. I think that's a fact, but I'd have to check.

Except for last year...

 

[ickythump1225]

I just don't think Jimbo Fisher is all that great of a coach. I think Malzahn is the superior coach.

 

[philipm31]

I somewhat agree here. Pulling out games you should have lost, albeit with with 2 1-in-a-million luck plays, certainly helps teams believe they can win games. And confidence and belief in winning is HUGE...in all sports.

But that reasoning on why you believe they'll win is different than:



Malzahn doesn't have more big game experience than Fisher. And Auburn was a dumpster fire the 2 years sandwiched between NCG appearances...one of which Gus was around for.

As for the rest of your post-- Alabama had already lost 2 games when they played Auburn in 2010. Alabama wasn't anywhere close to sniffing a Natty appearance. Kirby Smart is 4-2 against Auburn as DC, 3-2 against Malzahn, with the losses coming in 2010 and 2013. No clue where you got the 2 out of 3 from. I wouldn't say FSU has "sucked for so long" either. They haven't been as good as they were from ~'87-'02, but they haven't sucked. They were 12-2 last year and won a BCS Bowl. Meanwhile, Auburn was 3-9 and winless in conference play. They had 2 wins over DI teams- New Mexico State and Louisiana-Monroe (in OT).

Add in the fact that you've (admittedly) not even watched a Seminole game in years, and it's tough to give your post much credence.

Again, Auburn pulling out close games this season may very well help them against FSU. It may not. FSU may have actually won every game this year by 14 or more because they were just that much better than every team they played. Sometimes teams don't struggle because their players and coaches are that much better than their opponent. Sure, their schedule turned out to be a bit of a dud, but they still beat every team like they were supposed to do. FSU beat Maryland 63-0. At the time, Maryland was ranked #25. I think it was the worst defeat EVER for a ranked team. Why do I bring that game up? Because FSU not only took care of bidness, but it's tough to believe Auburn (or Alabama...or LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, or Kentucky) would post a similar result. They beat Florida by 30...in the swamp (Florida's worst loss of the year, even worse than all those SEC teams). FSU dominated (and "dominated" may be an understatement) virtually every team it played this year.

Does all this mean FSU will win? No. Hopefully it will be a great game to watch.

First off, NOBODY has watched FSU in years....and for half that time, at least, I was overseas teaching, so I had no reason to watch FSU because they DID suck, or were at the very best, mediocre. They have been good for about 4 years in a row now, but I just do not see how FSU stops Auburn.

I think it will be a great game to watch because I do not think for one second that FSU or Auburn will be able to stop the other offense...but I do think that if Auburn has the ball last, they will win, because there is little to no evidence that Jimbo is the better coach, honestly. This is Gus's second time in the NCG in four years. To me that is pretty telling.

And if an 8 win season is a dumpster fire (with a bowl win, mind you!), as you put it, then wouldn't three out of four years with Kelly at the helm qualify as one? After all, Auburn was 8-5 in 2009 and 2011, with bowl wins. In fact, Chizik and Auburn were 3-0 in bowls, with Malzahn running the offense those three years (For comparison's sake, Kelly has also had two 8-5 seasons, with ND 1-2 under Kelly so far.)

If you are going to conflate two years together, one of which was without Malzahm there, I do not think that your portion of that post has much credence either. Auburn was a dumpster fire for ONE year...and that was without Malzahn.

From 2009-2011, Gus was at Auburn under Chizik, so on that point you are correct. Ala was 2-1....but I was also right because in the last 3 games, Gus and his offense led the way to two wins against Smart, Saban and Co., giving Smart a 2-2 vs Auburn with Malzahn there.

I just think that FSU won't have all the answers that they need to stop Auburn consistently is better minds like Saban and Smart could not do it.

Then again, with six weeks to prepare, anything can happen.