The Road to the Playoff

[Rhode Irish]

ND is currenty ranked ninth in the AP and Coaches Polls. While those polls will not factor into who makes the Playoff like in the BCS era, we can use them as an approximate standing of the teams until the Committee's first top-25 is released in late October. In order for ND to move up into position to be in the playoffs, ND will have to move past at least five of the teams ranked ahead of it. It is also possible that teams currently behind ND could pass it, although I think to some extent ND controls its own destiny.

So I wanted to look at the other eight teams and how they compare to ND so far, and how their road ahead compares to ND's. Obviously it is pretty early to be thinking seriously about our road to the playoff, but until we lose a game it isn't necessarily wrong to think about it. Anyways, I was curious, so I looked into it. This is what I found:

FLORIDA STATE
Polls: AP - 1; USAT - 1
Who They've Beat: #25 Oklahoma State
Who They'll Face: vs. #22 Clemson (9/20); vs. #9 Notre Dame (10/18); @Louisville (10/30); *ACC Coastal Champion [UVA, VT or UNC] (12/4)
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 5

OREGON
Polls: AP - 2; USAT - 3
Who They've Beat: #7 Michigan State
Who They'll Face: vs. @ #12 UCLA (10/11); vs. #16 Stanford (10/18); *Pac 12 South Champion [USC or UCLA] (12/5);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 4

ALABAMA
Polls: AP - 3; USAT - 2
Who They've Beat: NR West Virginia
Who They'll Face: @ #10 Ole Miss (10/4); vs. #6 Texas A&M (10/18); @ #8 LSU (11/8); vs. #5 Auburn (11/29); *SEC East Champion [UGA or South Carolina] (12/6);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 8

OKLAHOMA
Polls: AP - 4; USAT - 4
Who They've Beat:
Who They'll Face: @ NR West Virginia (9/20); vs. #20 K-State (10/18); vs. #7 Baylor; vs. #25 Oklahoma State (12/6);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 5

AUBURN
Polls: AP - 5; USAT - 5
Who They've Beat:
Who They'll Face: @ #20 K-State (9/18); vs. #8 LSU (10/4); vs. #14 South Carolina (10/25); @ #10 Ole Miss (11/1); vs. #6 Texas A&M (11/8); @ #13 UGA (11/15); @ #3 Alabama (11/29); *SEC East Champion [Ha....no] (12/6);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 126

TEXAS A&M
Polls: AP - 6; USAT - 7
Who They've Beat: @ #9 South Carolina
Who They'll Face: vs. #10 Ole Miss (10/11); @ #3 Alabama (10/18); @ #5 Auburn (11/8); vs. #18 Mizzou (11/15); vs. #8 LSU (11/27); SEC East Champion [South Carolina or Georgia] (12/6);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 10

BAYLOR
Polls: AP - 7; USAT - 6
Who They've Beat:
Who They'll Face: @ NR West Virginia (10/18); @ #4 Oklahoma (11/8), vs. #25 Oklahoma State (11/22); vs. #20 K-State (12/6)
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 6

LSU
Polls: AP - 8; USAT - 8
Who They've Beat: #14 Wisconsin
Who They'll Face: @ #5 Auburn (10/4); vs. #10 Ole Miss (10/25); vs. #3 Alabama (11/8); vs. #6 Texas A&M (11/27); SEC East Champion [Georgia or South Carolina] (12/6);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 8

NOTRE DAME
Polls: AP - 9; USAT - 9
Who They've Beat: vs. NR Michigan
Who They'll Face: vs. #16 Stanford (10/4); vs. NR North Carolina (10/11); @ #1 Florida State (10/18); @ #15 Arizona St. (11/8); vs. NR Louisville (11/22); @ #17 USC (11/29);
Schedule Degree of Difficulty: 7.5


I'll update this every week unless/until we are out of contention, and if it is fun maybe I'll keep it going after that.

 

[anarin]

126 degrees of difficulty out of 10 is pretty brutal

 

[Rhode Irish]

126 degrees of difficulty out of 10 is pretty brutal

I was being conservative. Look at that schedule. I'm about to go to bed, and I am worried I will have a nightmare about it.

 

[stlnd01]

In order for ND to move up into position to be in the playoffs, ND will have to move past at least five of the teams ranked ahead of it. It is also possible that teams currently behind ND could pass it, although I think to some extent ND controls its own destiny.

Like you said, it's really too early. But I'd think it's safe to say we're in if we win out, and have a pretty decent shot w/one loss (if it's close and to a good team like an undefeated FSU or Pac-12 champ Stanford).

I read some nonsensical Dennis Dodd column today about how our only shot at any top-tier bowl game was to go undefeated. He seemed to be confusing us with BYU.
Notre Dame, BYU have one avenue to make playoff: Finish undefeated - CBSSports.com

 

[T Town Tommy]

Based on what I have seen the first three weeks, Fla St, Oregon, and OU should have fairly easy paths to the playoffs. Each will face at least one decent test along the way, but if they are as good as they are being hyped, they should be able to win their games and get there.

The SEC , and the SEC West in particular, just has too many good teams for any one to go through without a loss. They will beat up each other pretty bad. Could it mean the SEC champ will have two losses? It could very easily happen.

If a team like Mich St can win out and the Irish turn in a one loss season as well, then the playoff we all wanted in some form or fashion will be chaos. Should be fun watching it all work out... or blow up depending on how it plays out in the end.

Kudos Rhode Irish... great thread.

 

[Irish#1]

Like you said, it's really too early. But I'd think it's safe to say we're in if we win out, and have a pretty decent shot w/one loss (if it's close and to a good team like an undefeated FSU or Pac-12 champ Stanford).

I read some nonsensical Dennis Dodd column today about how our only shot at any top-tier bowl game was to go undefeated. He seemed to be confusing us with BYU.
Notre Dame, BYU have one avenue to make playoff: Finish undefeated - CBSSports.com

Doubt they win the P12 with a loss already, but you never know.

 

[RDU Irish]

given the last decade and the rhetoric of the SEC, you pretty much have to give their conference champ a seat in the playoff, even if they have three losses. Michigan State is an easy bump out even if they win out. Big Ten's only chance of making the playoff was an undefeated team.

 

[koonja]

I don't buy any of the SEC teams as elite besides Texas AM right now (haven't seen Auburn FYI).

I like how Georgia loses to SC, and SC moves up 11 spots while Georgia only falls 7. Net improvement for SEC = 4 spots = no lose scenario.

Wisconsin did a huge disservice to CFB by blowing their 3 score lead to LSU. Now SEC starts it's BS schedule of 1) starting season highly rated and 2) playing shit teams for a few weeks to make those records look great (enhancing fan's belief in the initial/improved rankings) before they play one another, and you have a bunch of #3 vs. #5 games, and #2 vs. #6, where the SEC can't really lose.

But yeah, no one scares me besides A/M. Bama will get there, LSU isn't special, haven't seen Auburn, SC's defense is horrible against the run, and Georgia lost to them, so yeah. SEC rant over.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Please don't call South Carolina "USC". It is confusing and wrong.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I don't buy any of the SEC teams as elite besides Texas AM right now (haven't seen Auburn FYI).

I like how Georgia loses to SC, and SC moves up 11 spots while Georgia only falls 7. Net improvement for SEC = 4 spots = no lose scenario.

Wisconsin did a huge disservice to CFB by blowing their 3 score lead to LSU. Now SEC starts it's BS schedule of 1) starting season highly rated and 2) playing shit teams for a few weeks to make those records look great (enhancing fan's belief in the initial/improved rankings) before they play one another, and you have a bunch of #3 vs. #5 games, and #2 vs. #6, where the SEC can't really lose.

But yeah, no one scares me besides A/M. Bama will get there, LSU isn't special, haven't seen Auburn, SC's defense is horrible against the run, and Georgia lost to them, so yeah. SEC rant over.

Love ya koon... but disagree on the SEC obviously. The SEC West is loaded with very solid teams. I haven't seen but a handful of teams from other conferences that would stack up to them. And the Irish isn't one of them right now for what that's worth.The rest of the country will just have to wait for the SEC schools to cannibalize each other.

If the SEC champ has two losses, does the committee pass them up for a one loss Mich State or a one loss Notre Dame? Can't see that happening. Nor should it given the depth of the quality teams in the SEC.

 

[MPClinton22]

What's so funny to me is ESPN touting South Carolina's defense as all of the sudden SO MUCH better. They still gave up 35 points, which is only 6 less than Clemson gave up on the road at UGA, and no one is saying that Clemson's defense is good. Just crazy to me given the fact that they still gave up 35. Since when does that count as a good defense? Sure, better than giving up 52 points. But in what world is that proving you have a good defense?

 

[T Town Tommy]

What's so funny to me is ESPN touting South Carolina's defense as all of the sudden SO MUCH better. They still gave up 35 points, which is only 6 less than Clemson gave up on the road at UGA, and no one is saying that Clemson's defense is good. Just crazy to me given the fact that they still gave up 35. Since when does that count as a good defense? Sure, better than giving up 52 points. But in what world is that proving you have a good defense?

Carolina's defense is evolving. They aren't very good yet. Carolina doesn't worry me as a Bama fan because they are poor at tackling people. Ga's defensive secondary is not very good yet either and their DL got whipped horribly by Carolina's OL. Both will get much better as the season progresses, and both are much better than Clemson. But right now, neither team is a serious threat in the SEC in the overall scheme of things. One of them should come out of the SEC East, but I think whoever survives the SEC West beats either one.

 

[Rhode Irish]

The SEC West is a better division than the AFC North.

 

[T Town Tommy]

The SEC West is a better division than the AFC North.

Stop that stuff Pawl Finebaum.

 

[Black Irish]

Here's the total Green Kool-Aid scenario. If the Irish go undefeated into Tallahassee and beat FSU, how far does that propel ND up the charts? #1 is probably too much to ask for, Maybe #2?

 

[MPClinton22]

Carolina's defense is evolving. They aren't very good yet. Carolina doesn't worry me as a Bama fan because they are poor at tackling people. Ga's defensive secondary is not very good yet either and their DL got whipped horribly by Carolina's OL. Both will get much better as the season progresses, and both are much better than Clemson. But right now, neither team is a serious threat in the SEC in the overall scheme of things. One of them should come out of the SEC East, but I think whoever survives the SEC West beats either one.

Fair enough, it's just really annoying how the ESPN hype train works. But I do agree that whoever comes out of the east will have a tough time beating whoever comes out of the west. Although none of the teams in the west have exactly looked like world beaters, aside from A&M in week 1. I mean Alabama had some trouble with the Mountaineers, and LSU needed a last minute comeback to beat what many believe to be a pedestrian Wisconsin team. Auburn hasn't really played anyone yet (besides an Arkansas team that has been awful the last few seasons), so I'm really interested to see how they do against the fighting Bill Snyders this weekend.

I watched a segment about this past weekend's games earlier today, and Danny Kanell actually said that he HATES the top 25 polls and that it's a joke how the SEC gets a bunch of teams ranked really highly by default, and then wins count for more and losses hardly hurt. It was really refreshing to see an ESPN guy actually say what we non-SEC fans all have been thinking for a long time. I'm surprised ESPN didn't fire him on the spot.

 

[phork]

You don't have to jump 5 spots. As long as we are close to the top4 with our only loss being FSU, I can't see how ND gets held out. SOS is going to factor big and we don't have have to do anything to adjust our schedules.

Michigan is screwed because they play patsies in the non-con and the BIG sucks. Go ahead, keep scheduling AppSt.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

Long way to go here, but for ND to get in here's what needs to happen:

ND wins out and they are in.

or

ND loses to FSU respectably and goes 11-1 with some quality victories down the stretch.

1. FSU (13-0)
2. SEC West (13-0/12-1)
3. PAC12 (13-0/12-1)
4. ND or BIG12 Champ (11-1)

I don't think ND can get in with a loss to anyone else unless we see some major upsets.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Love ya koon... but disagree on the SEC obviously. The SEC West is loaded with very solid teams. I haven't seen but a handful of teams from other conferences that would stack up to them. And the Irish isn't one of them right now for what that's worth.The rest of the country will just have to wait for the SEC schools to cannibalize each other.

If the SEC champ has two losses, does the committee pass them up for a one loss Mich State or a one loss Notre Dame? Can't see that happening. Nor should it given the depth of the quality teams in the SEC.

Not sure that I agree. 'Bama beat a West Virginia team that won one game last year, LSU was handed a win by Wisconsin. Georgia beat a pedestrian Clemson team. Texas A&M beat South Carolina, who cannot stop the Little Sisters of the Poor if their life depended on them, and has played the likes of Rice, SMU, and Northwest Texas State College A&I. Ole Miss has yet to play anyone (I don't buy the Boise St. argument...you can't have your cake and eat it too). Miss St. hasn't played anyone either. Auburn gets its test Thursday, but its KSU, so how much of a test is that really?

I know that I am in the minority, but I don't buy the SEC right now.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Fair enough, it's just really annoying how the ESPN hype train works. But I do agree that whoever comes out of the east will have a tough time beating whoever comes out of the west. Although none of the teams in the west have exactly looked like world beaters, aside from A&M in week 1. I mean Alabama had some trouble with the Mountaineers, and LSU needed a last minute comeback to beat what many believe to be a pedestrian Wisconsin team. Auburn hasn't really played anyone yet (besides an Arkansas team that has been awful the last few seasons), so I'm really interested to see how they do against the fighting Bill Snyders this weekend.

I watched a segment about this past weekend's games earlier today, and Danny Kanell actually said that he HATES the top 25 polls and that it's a joke how the SEC gets a bunch of teams ranked really highly by default, and then wins count for more and losses hardly hurt. It was really refreshing to see an ESPN guy actually say what we non-SEC fans all have been thinking for a long time. I'm surprised ESPN didn't fire him on the spot.

You do realize Danny Kanell is ridiculous in his comments. He is an FSU homer all the way. He is entitled to his opinion obviously, but if you listen you will hear more nonsense than anything else. I even think at one point preseason he said Bama finishes 7-5. It may very well happen but I highly doubt it. And when the Irish come to town, he will say some pretty ridiculous things about them.

As far as the SEC... I do think every team has their challenges to get better.But I really haven't seen any other teams out there that look like they are any better. Long season ahead so we just gotta see where it all ends up.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Long way to go here, but for ND to get in here's what needs to happen:

ND wins out and they are in.

or

ND loses to FSU respectably and goes 11-1 with some quality victories down the stretch.

1. FSU (13-0)
2. SEC West (13-0/12-1)
3. PAC12 (13-0/12-1)
4. ND or BIG12 Champ (11-1)

I don't think ND can get in with a loss to anyone else unless we see some major upsets.

Really a dumb conversation to have. We are a pedestrian team as well. We haven't played anyone. Crazy to think but SU on the road at night will be the first real test for adversity for this team (don't buy the Purdue adversity crap that ICON tries to shove down our throat...you were at a neutral site with a predominantly home crowd...that isn't adversity). If we don't get healthy, or sign athletes off the waiver wire, and don't find a running game, Stanford and FSU will roll this team and this conversation will be for not.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Long way to go here, but for ND to get in here's what needs to happen:

ND wins out and they are in.

or

ND loses to FSU respectably and goes 11-1 with some quality victories down the stretch.

1. FSU (13-0)
2. SEC West (13-0/12-1)
3. PAC12 (13-0/12-1)
4. ND or BIG12 Champ (11-1)

I don't think ND can get in with a loss to anyone else unless we see some major upsets.

I think this is a good take, although if we beat FSU and, say, lost to Stanford, there could still be a case in that scenario for us to get in. You'd think that would knock FSU out. We'd need all of the Pac 12 teams to lose at least once, and for the eventual champion to have two losses, and/or a losses by Oklahoma and Baylor. Lots of scenarios, which is why I think this will be fun. I just hope it stays relevant for ND for as long as possible.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Not sure that I agree. 'Bama beat a West Virginia team that won one game last year, LSU was handed a win by Wisconsin. Georgia beat a pedestrian Clemson team. Texas A&M beat South Carolina, who cannot stop the Little Sisters of the Poor if their life depended on them, and has played the likes of Rice, SMU, and Northwest Texas State College A&I. Ole Miss has yet to play anyone (I don't buy the Boise St. argument...you can't have your cake and eat it too). Miss St. hasn't played anyone either. Auburn gets its test Thursday, but its KSU, so how much of a test is that really?

I know that I am in the minority, but I don't buy the SEC right now.

In fairness to WV, they returned seven or eight starters that were lost last year due to injury. They also appear to have a QB in Trickett that can run their offense pretty effectively. I expect they will be much better than their 4-8 record last year.


Bama has to get better defensively and Sims has to play well at Qb for the Tide to be a threat.

I have been critical of LSU simply due to their QB play. If they get that fixed they will be a solid team yet again.

A&M looks good offensively but their run defense is pretty bad right now. They will have trouble with teams that can play keep away and control the ball on offense.

Auburn looks pretty good and more will be learned about them Thursday night in Manhattan.

Miss State, Ole Miss, and Arkansas look pretty good as well but still have some issues they have to fix.

The East has Carolina, Ga, and a surprising team to me in Mizzou so far. Tenn is much improved, Ky looks better, Fla has a ways to go, and poor old Vandy is struggling.

With all that said, I don't think many teams want to be in the SEC... and even less in the SEC West. It is the best division, in the best and deepest conference hands down.

When I look at the other conferences I see one, maybe two teams tops that are at that level. Nothing against them, but the quality of depth can't be matched so far this season. I posted before the season started that I thought the Pac 12 could get there but so far the only team that looks like they belong is Oregon. The Big 12 has OU and maybe Baylor, the ACC has Fla St, and the B1G... well, outside of Mich St I don't see another team ready to step up.

The Irish? Not there yet either.

 

[NCND]

Man that SEC west anit no joke. I'm not a believer in LSU at all. Ole Miss' D is legit but the QB is bound to screw up vs a good defense, I want to see Bama's QB Sims make a clutch play vs a elite D like Fla before I'm jumping on that hype. Aub and A&M look to be the best teams. On ND, find a way to get into the top 10-11 at the end of the season and get into one of the "New year's Six" games and I'll be happy.

 

[Blaise]

a 2 loss SEC champ will go to Playoff over a 1 loss ND team

 

[RDU Irish]

Haven't been overly impressed with any SEC teams however I haven't seen any complete world beaters in the country for that matter. More parity amongst the top 10 than I can remember for some time. Usually seems like a pretty good drop off from #1-3 and the rest of the top ten. Everyone has an exposed flank or two and will be tested.

Does defense exist in the SEC? Will the SEC championship game be a 38-35 type of affair between two 2 loss teams? Seems entirely possible, especially if you think Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri and some other second tier teams are due to upset the Bama/LSU/Georgia/SoCar/A&M of the world. They will frame it as proof of the tough conference but frankly I don't see the top 2-4 SEC teams being nearly the caliber of years past.

 

[RDU Irish]

Best scenarios for a 1 loss Irish?

A) USC wins Pac12 and we beat them in their house to finish the season.... but sport only Stanford as a loss. FSU wins ACC, Michigan wins B1G. Three conference champs in in our pocket and a tough, respectable loss.

B) Lose to FSU in Tallahassee in a nail biter, argument for home court advantage. USC or Stanford win Pac12, Michigan finishes strong in B1G. FSU finishes clear #1 and only undefeated team (maybe OU is also undefeated). Two final spots go to ND and SEC.

 

[Blaise]

Best scenarios for a 1 loss Irish?

A) USC wins Pac12 and we beat them in their house to finish the season.... but sport only Stanford as a loss. FSU wins ACC, Michigan wins B1G. Three conference champs in in our pocket and a tough, respectable loss.

B) Lose to FSU in Tallahassee in a nail biter, argument for home court advantage. USC or Stanford win Pac12, Michigan finishes strong in B1G. FSU finishes clear #1 and only undefeated team (maybe OU is also undefeated). Two final spots go to ND and SEC.

I like scenario 2 but I think you need Oklahoma to lose... SEC FSU ND cuz I think a Pac 12 team is going to playoff unless they beat up each other and if that's the case where Stanford, USC both have 3 losses.. Pac 12 is really really good and gets a lot of national love...

If ND sweeps USC and Stanford they will have at least 2 losses each... Mich is not good... You will have zero wins against top 15 teams at end of year.. that will factor in to committee

 

[RuntheBall]

What if FSU loses two? To us and whomever. They would be out. I feel that would really open things up. We lose to a good team (Stanford; USC may be crippling in the last week).

I think Pac-12's only shot is Oregon. USC shot themselves in the foot with BC, as long as we beat them they are out. Stanford has a case with an early season USC lose if they beat Oregon, but that still leaves just one team.

B1G is out. Unless some weird stuff happens.

Oklahoma is an obvious contender, even with a loss to a good Baylor team, they could be one of the 4.


1. SEC
2. PAC 12 (Oregon)
3. SEC #2
4. Oklahoma
5. ND (11-1)?

 

[MPClinton22]

You do realize Danny Kanell is ridiculous in his comments. He is an FSU homer all the way. He is entitled to his opinion obviously, but if you listen you will hear more nonsense than anything else. I even think at one point preseason he said Bama finishes 7-5. It may very well happen but I highly doubt it. And when the Irish come to town, he will say some pretty ridiculous things about them.

As far as the SEC... I do think every team has their challenges to get better.But I really haven't seen any other teams out there that look like they are any better. Long season ahead so we just gotta see where it all ends up.

Whether or not he is a huge FSU homer doesn't negate the fact that I agree with his assessment of the top 25 polls and the built in advantage the SEC has.