The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[NDWarrior]

It's so damn strange (altho' I understand the motivation for why) that the P4 schools want to go relatively unchallenged during the season figuring that gets them into the CFP on an annual basis but what makes them think they won't get slaughtered in the first round? They and the CFP committee will never know how really good they are with these Temu schedules.

It's what's propelling the idea that the CFP (heading toward a wide-open playoff field of 24 teams) is the real, 2nd season where who's really a top team is figured out. That's kind of going to put a damper on the regular season and potentially kill off awesome, competitive OOC games, like we're already seeing with USC dropping ND and VA Tech killing the JMU game; and Texas talking about no longer scheduling tough OOC matchups like OSU.

Maybe there also a ton of incentive $ for HCs and staff, and for schools, to just make the CFP which makes it worth it to go in this direction?

I just don't get it.

 

[NDWarrior]

Since Pete B. and Miami's AD are good buds, why don't we get a series commitment in place with the 'canes for the last weekend since Miami doesn't appear to have a rivalry series or game that weekend (they played Pitt this past year).

If not a standard home and away series, maybe it can be held in Vegas every year and then ND can still do some West Coast recruiting out there.

And it should be a solid series for a while since both ND & Miami appear to be committed to spending big on NIL and the TP, i.e., Miami and ND should continue to field competitive teams.

It would be a great way to end the season every year.

 

[NDWarrior]

FBS teams ND has never played to date.

What Teams Has Notre Dame STILL Never Played in Football (2026)?

 

[ulukinatme]

FBS teams ND has never played to date.

What Teams Has Notre Dame STILL Never Played in Football (2026)?

Always seemed a bit odd to me ND and Kentucky never played given their relatively close proximity. You would think that we would have met Auburn at least once too somewhere like a bowl. I couldn't care less that we've not scheduled all those former FCS teams turned FBS, there's quite a few on that list.

 

[DillonHall]

It's so damn strange (altho' I understand the motivation for why) that the P4 schools want to go relatively unchallenged during the season figuring that gets them into the CFP on an annual basis but what makes them think they won't get slaughtered in the first round? They and the CFP committee will never know how really good they are with these Temu schedules.

It's what's propelling the idea that the CFP (heading toward a wide-open playoff field of 24 teams) is the real, 2nd season where who's really a top team is figured out. That's kind of going to put a damper on the regular season and potentially kill off awesome, competitive OOC games, like we're already seeing with USC dropping ND and VA Tech killing the JMU game; and Texas talking about no longer scheduling tough OOC matchups like OSU.

Maybe there also a ton of incentive $ for HCs and staff, and for schools, to just make the CFP which makes it worth it to go in this direction?

I just don't get it.

The committee has shown that 11-1 or 10-2 against a crappy schedule is better than 9-3 against a tough schedule

Under the current system, if you’re in the SEC or B1G, I think it’d be crazy to play any meaningful non-conference games. There’s no point risking an extra loss when a third loss almost guarantees elimination from championship contention. Texas 2025 is a prime example - they would’ve gotten in over Oklahoma if they hadn’t played Ohio State

 

[DillonHall]

T

Whenever someone says “ND needs to join a conference because their schedule is too weak” you just need to ignore them. Non-con of Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo

That’s not the point at all. Joining the B1G or SEC means not having to stress about scheduling big games. You’re guaranteed 1-2 marquee conference games every year plus you get USC back on the schedule. That’s a lot more interesting than Miami and Clemson IMO. As dumb as it is, you also get the benefit of the doubt if you do well in those conferences, regardless of your actual opponents. And if you finish top 2 and go to the CCG, apparently losing the game doesn’t deter you from getting into the Playoff. There will be fewer top programs willing to schedule ND in the future if the Playoff doesn’t expand to 24

 

[stlnd01]

The committee has shown that 11-1 or 10-2 against a crappy schedule is better than 9-3 against a tough schedule

Under the current system, if you’re in the SEC or B1G, I think it’d be crazy to play any meaningful non-conference games. There’s no point risking an extra loss when a third loss almost guarantees elimination from championship contention. Texas 2025 is a prime example - they would’ve gotten in over Oklahoma if they hadn’t played Ohio State

And Alabama would have been a shoo-in, not a bubble team, had they beaten Florida Atlantic instead of losing to Florida State (who, flawed as they are, has the talent to beat Alabama on the right day). Miami, on the other hand, does not make the playoffs if they hadn't beaten us.

It is striking the degree to which the Big 10 and SEC are treated differently than the other two. And you're right there is little incentive for Big 10/SEC teams to play us, going forward. At least not the ones that see themselves as serious playoff contenders, for whom the risk of the loss outweighs the upside of a win.

I don't particularly want a schedule full of ACC and Big 12 teams every year. Do you?

 

[DillonHall]

And Alabama would have been a shoo-in, not a bubble team, had they beaten Florida Atlantic instead of losing to Florida State (who, flawed as they are, has the talent to beat Alabama on the right day). Miami, on the other hand, does not make the playoffs if they hadn't beaten us.

It is striking the degree to which the Big 10 and SEC are treated differently than the other two. And you're right there is little incentive for Big 10/SEC teams to play us, going forward. At least not the ones that see themselves as serious playoff contenders, for whom the risk of the loss outweighs the upside of a win.

I don't particularly want a schedule full of ACC and Big 12 teams every year. Do you?

I’m of the opinion that we should just join the B1G. We’d add to the perceived strength of the conference and possibly have a clearer path to the playoff

 

[Irish du Nord]

I’m of the opinion that we should just join the B1G. We’d add to the perceived strength of the conference and possibly have a clearer path to the playoff

All while likely having a weaker schedule than we did before!

 

[stlnd01]

All while likely having a weaker schedule than we did before!

And also more fun games against our most hated and historic rivals!

 

[NDWarrior]

2026 schedule is set including Stanford on 10/10. Pretty weak schedule but it will do for the 2026 Fighting Irish Revenge Tour.

12-0 or bust. Let's slice through this schedule like a hot knife through butter! 🍀🍀🍀

Notre Dame officially announces 2026 football schedule, including continuation of a rivalry

 

[bobbyok1]

2026 schedule is set including Stanford on 10/10. Pretty weak schedule but it will do for the 2026 Fighting Irish Revenge Tour.

12-0 or bust. Let's slice through this schedule like a hot knife through butter! 🍀🍀🍀

Notre Dame officially announces 2026 football schedule, including continuation of a rivalry

View attachment 3062533

Not the strongest schedule, but we knew that going in. And you never know how teams evolve as the year goes on.

I like how they have things broken down. Opening against a decent opponent in Wisconsin. Then, a warm-up game in Rice before a dangerous MSU team (in my opinion, with Pat Fitzgerald as their new coach).

Purdue, NC, and Stanford are all easily winnable games, though at NC with Belichick in his second year is one to pay attention to. Fortuntely with Purdue and Stanford on either side of that game, we shouldn't be overlooking NC. If it were early season, I'd be more concerned.

BYU is positioned well, right before a bye. I suspect BYU will put up a fight, but I am not concerned about them. I think we outshine them at most every position, and if we play our game, we win by two scores or more. At Navy, after the bye is also great, an extra week to prep for their unique offense.

Miami is sandwiched between Navy and Boston College, two games we should win easily. We might be a little banged up from Navy's hits below the knees, but we will be coming off the bye before Navy, so hopefully, health won't be an issue for the matcup against the Hurricanes. And we are at home against Miami in November, so let's hope for early cold/snow.

We finish with SMU at home and on the road against Syracuse. The Orangemen don't concern me overall, but if Angeli is back at the helm and slinging it, we might be in for a fight.

SMU is a wildcard to me. They had a nice 9-4 season last year, beating Miami on the road and #17 Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. NYT has them projected as #22 with another 9-4 season.

Overall, a very manageable schedule, but there are a few games that stand out against teams who could be on the rise and with something to prove (MSU, NC, Syracuse, SMU), not to mention the Miami game. Manageable, but not a cakewalk.

 

[texbender]

Not the strongest schedule, but we knew that going in. And you never know how teams evolve as the year goes on.

I like how they have things broken down. Opening against a decent opponent in Wisconsin. Then, a warm-up game in Rice before a dangerous MSU team (in my opinion, with Pat Fitzgerald as their new coach).

Purdue, NC, and Stanford are all easily winnable games, though at NC with Belichick in his second year is one to pay attention to. Fortuntely with Purdue and Stanford on either side of that game, we shouldn't be overlooking NC. If it were early season, I'd be more concerned.

BYU is positioned well, right before a bye. I suspect BYU will put up a fight, but I am not concerned about them. I think we outshine them at most every position, and if we play our game, we win by two scores or more. At Navy, after the bye is also great, an extra week to prep for their unique offense.

Miami is sandwiched between Navy and Boston College, two games we should win easily. We might be a little banged up from Navy's hits below the knees, but we will be coming off the bye before Navy, so hopefully, health won't be an issue for the matcup against the Hurricanes. And we are at home against Miami in November, so let's hope for early cold/snow.

We finish with SMU at home and on the road against Syracuse. The Orangemen don't concern me overall, but if Angeli is back at the helm and slinging it, we might be in for a fight.

SMU is a wildcard to me. They had a nice 9-4 season last year, beating Miami on the road and #17 Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. NYT has them projected as #22 with another 9-4 season.

Overall, a very manageable schedule, but there are a few games that stand out against teams who could be on the rise and with something to prove (MSU, NC, Syracuse, SMU), not to mention the Miami game. Manageable, but not a cakewalk.

If 2 night games, maybe Miami and SMU? And being late season, that further would benefit ND.

 

[NDWarrior]

Nothing new here, but what is noteworthy is that the article is highlighting the trend and concern we’ve been talking about here on IE - The top P4 conference teams’ reluctance to schedule quality OOC P4 opponents, and play pretty moderate in-conference schedules.

Is there a college football scheduling coup d’etat coming for Notre Dame?

ND is still looking better off being independent, but really concerned about the ability to continue scheduling quality P4 opponents in this current play-it-safe mentality epitomized by the cancellation of tougher P4 opponents by USC, IU, and VA Tech, and Sark and TX considering it.

From the article:

“The last three national champions have something more in common than just being from the Big 10. Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana all went through their championship regular season without playing any out of conference Power 4 opponents. While it would seem like an important stat, the committee never talks about the number of Power 4 wins a program has as they rank them. 2024 Ohio State, for example, had a grand total of 7 Power 4 wins during the regular season.”

The good news after the 2026 schedule is that ND has strong 2027 to 2029 schedules which were put in place well before this current lame trend.







Hopefully, the ability to schedule these tougher P4 teams - especially top SEC and B1G teams - continues for ND.

 

[stlnd01]

Nothing new here, but what is noteworthy is that the article is highlighting the trend and concern we’ve been talking about here on IE - The top P4 conference teams’ reluctance to schedule quality OOC P4 opponents, and play pretty moderate in-conference schedules.

Is there a college football scheduling coup d’etat coming for Notre Dame?

It's particularly true of the B1G and SEC teams, who will get more benefit of the doubt than ACC and Big 12.

OTOH, Miami clearly benefited from playing us this year. They don't make the CFP without that win.
BYU is probably making the same calculation, that beating us would bolster their case for an at-large CFP bid at 11-1 or 10-2.

Whereas USC probably figures they're in even with two losses in Big Ten play, but a third to us knocks them out, so it's not worth the risk.
And the way Texas was talking at the end of the season, I hope we had good lawyers write the contract for that '28-'29 series.

 

[NDWarrior]

It's particularly true of the B1G and SEC teams, who will get more benefit of the doubt than ACC and Big 12.

OTOH, Miami clearly benefited from playing us this year. They don't make the CFP without that win.
BYU is probably making the same calculation, that beating us would bolster their case for an at-large CFP bid at 11-1 or 10-2.

Whereas USC probably figures they're in even with two losses in Big Ten play, but a third to us knocks them out, so it's not worth the risk.
And the way Texas was talking at the end of the season, I hope we had good lawyers write the contract for that '28-'29 series.

Gamesmanship

 

[bobbyok1]

Nothing new here, but what is noteworthy is that the article is highlighting the trend and concern we’ve been talking about here on IE - The top P4 conference teams’ reluctance to schedule quality OOC P4 opponents, and play pretty moderate in-conference schedules.

Is there a college football scheduling coup d’etat coming for Notre Dame?

ND is still looking better off being independent, but really concerned about the ability to continue scheduling quality P4 opponents in this current play-it-safe mentality epitomized by the cancellation of tougher P4 opponents by USC, IU, and VA Tech, and Sark and TX considering it.

From the article:

“The last three national champions have something more in common than just being from the Big 10. Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana all went through their championship regular season without playing any out of conference Power 4 opponents. While it would seem like an important stat, the committee never talks about the number of Power 4 wins a program has as they rank them. 2024 Ohio State, for example, had a grand total of 7 Power 4 wins during the regular season.”

The good news after the 2026 schedule is that ND has strong 2027 to 2029 schedules which were put in place well before this current lame trend.

View attachment 3062536

View attachment 3062537

View attachment 3062538

Hopefully, the ability to schedule these tougher P4 teams - especially top SEC and B1G teams - continues for ND.

Three SEC teams in 28'. Wouldn't it be awesome to sweep those games and be able to say "3-0 vs SEC" that year?

 

[bpob55]

If 2 night games, maybe Miami and SMU? And being late season, that further would benefit ND.

Could see MSU being a night game too so the first night game isn't November 7. After Navy was a night game last year who knows. Will also depend on the B10 inventory available to NBC each week compared to our home games.

 

[stlnd01]

Could see MSU being a night game too so the first night game isn't November 7. After Navy was a night game last year who knows. Will also depend on the B10 inventory available to NBC each week compared to our home games.

That would make sense. Looks like SEC play starts that weekend (LSU visits Ole Miss. Spicy!) but the Big Ten will mostly still be gorging on creampuffs. Us vs. Sparty might be one of their best options, TV-wise.

 

[Dale]

See you in 2028:

 

[Dale]

 

[Dale]

What are the odds NDs first game @ SMU is in Jerry World? 40%? Fit that cozy in their 2028 schedule

 

[KPENN]

This is so lame.

 

[texbender]

What are the odds NDs first game @ SMU is in Jerry World? 40%? Fit that cozy in their 2028 schedule

SMU on campus stadium capacity is 35,500. Don't think ND would want any of that. Other option is the Cotton Bowl, but looks like SMU has decided on Jerry World for the higher marquee teams.
Dallas area HS recruiting is target rich.

 

[Dale]

SMU on campus stadium capacity is 35,500. Don't think ND would want any of that. Other option is the Cotton Bowl, but looks like SMU has decided on Jerry World for the higher marquee teams.
Dallas area HS recruiting is target rich.

SMU and Wake Forest are the two smallest ACC stadiums. We play them at Bank of America Stadium in 2027. Easy comp

 

[bpob55]

TCU did the same thing during their peak - move high profile non-conference matchups to Jerry's World for an extra roughly $10mil in revenue. Their season ticket holders were very unhappy about it.
I think it's a certainty when ND plays @ SMU it will be in Arlington.

 

[Ndaccountant]

SMU infrastructure is not equipped for ND game. Could they try and fake it like NW did yeara ago, sure. But if gate receipts are negotiated carefully, would be best for all to be in Jerry's World.

 

[stlnd01]

Another reason to ditch the rinky-dink ACC. Most of them don't have stadiums big enough to contain the crowds we bring.
Nearly half the conference plays in stadiums that seat 52,000 or fewer. Even UNC.

P4 Stadium Sizes, Ranked

This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.

accfootballrx.blogspot.com

 

[ulukinatme]

SMU on campus stadium capacity is 35,500. Don't think ND would want any of that. Other option is the Cotton Bowl, but looks like SMU has decided on Jerry World for the higher marquee teams.
Dallas area HS recruiting is target rich.

I can already hear the cries from SMU fans: They're dodging us in Provo Dallas! They want to play in Arlington instead! They're scared!

 

[stpeteirish]

Another reason to ditch the rinky-dink ACC. Most of them don't have stadiums big enough to contain the crowds we bring.
Nearly half the conference plays in stadiums that seat 52,000 or fewer. Even UNC.

P4 Stadium Sizes, Ranked

This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.

accfootballrx.blogspot.com

and Clemson and NC St are probably the only ones that sell out most of their games.