The Notre Dame Football Ceiling

[Who'saWildManNow]

After watching Bama dismantle Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend I made the mistake of comparing our program with that of Nick Saban's. It raised a number of tough questions for me as a lifelong fan.

Why were we able to compete at the highest level back in the day and the late 80's early 90's but in this day and age it seems as an impossible feat?

I know early on we had the tv contracts and a certain lore but it can't be just that can it? Just because you can be on TV anywhere we can't hoard blue chips?

Are we at a lower ceiling because of educational standards? If the top 2 players at every position wanted to commit to ND how many of them would actually pass admissions?

Is it coaching? Is it as simple as getting our Saban, Urban or Harbaugh?

I watch the Tide punish teams and move the ball at will and wonder if we'll ever be capable of that brand of football ever again.

Are we doomed to competing for 9-10 win seasons and a big bowl? I mean, in 2014 if Kansas St had replaced Bama we might have been celebrating a NC and projecting a defeat of a Bama if it had of been them.

I'm tired of watching our highly touted trenches get pushed around by Duke and leave the QB with a clean jersey..

I have to cut this short and pick my boy up from school but those are my initial thoughts.

Is our ceiling below almost everyone else's?

 

[TomHaverford]

Is it coaching? Is it as simple as getting our Saban, Urban or Harbaugh?

it's really as simple as that.

Alabama was a dumpster fire for like a decade before Saban came in and turned it around.

Ohio State fired Tressel for Tatgate and were 6-7 under Fickell. Meyer comes in, with the same players goes 12-0.

Michigan was a dumpster fire for about a decade with Hoke and RichRod. Seems like Harbaugh has flipped the switch and changed the culture overnight.

USC was a running joke before Pete Carroll came in and built a dynasty. It's fallen apart at the saems since he left.

You're talking about the 3 best coaches in college football period though and Carroll is one of the top 2 or 3 coaches in the NFL right now.

Really just comes down to coaching. Simple as that. Kelly is a good coach having a bad year. Same as Dantonio at MSU. It happens. They are good coaches. Not great ones though. Not a whole lot of great coaches out there honestly.

 

[pumpdog20]

You're also talking about schools that have nowhere near the limitations it puts on themselves like ND and have as crappy weather.

 

[NDgradstudent]

You're also talking about schools that have nowhere near the limitations it puts on themselves like ND

See these charts.

and have as crappy weather.

Columbus and Ann Arbor have the same weather as South Bend. The weather is different in Tuscaloosa, but otherwise it is basically a Southern-fried version of South Bend.

 

[TomHaverford]

You're also talking about schools that have nowhere near the limitations it puts on themselves like ND and have as crappy weather.

while that is true, I don't buy it.

Columbus, OH and Ann Arbor, MI don't exactly have amazing winter and spring weather either.

It all comes down to the coach. Holtz was a great one. You guys won a ton with him and were ELITE. Because he was elite.

Saban, Harbaugh, or Meyer would all kill it at ND as well.

 

[irishff1014]

You do bring up some interesting points.

-Kids are year round players now and have a lot more access to schools.

- The conference networks help.

-some kids want to do as little work as they have too

-IMO our S&C program isn't up to par.

-Kelly's weakness is he is to loyal

 

[Irish Insanity]

#FuckMichigan

 

[IrishBroker]

After watching Bama dismantle Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend I made the mistake of comparing our program with that of Nick Saban's. It raised a number of tough questions for me as a lifelong fan.

Why were we able to compete at the highest level back in the day and the late 80's early 90's but in this day and age it seems as an impossible feat?

I know early on we had the tv contracts and a certain lore but it can't be just that can it? Just because you can be on TV anywhere we can't hoard blue chips?

Are we at a lower ceiling because of educational standards? If the top 2 players at every position wanted to commit to ND how many of them would actually pass admissions?

Is it coaching? Is it as simple as getting our Saban, Urban or Harbaugh?

I watch the Tide punish teams and move the ball at will and wonder if we'll ever be capable of that brand of football ever again.

Are we doomed to competing for 9-10 win seasons and a big bowl? I mean, in 2014 if Kansas St had replaced Bama we might have been celebrating a NC and projecting a defeat of a Bama if it had of been them.

I'm tired of watching our highly touted trenches get pushed around by Duke and leave the QB with a clean jersey..

I have to cut this short and pick my boy up from school but those are my initial thoughts.

Is our ceiling below almost everyone else's?

To be honest? In addition to TV deal, grandpappy's team, and Rudy hype....

Because we were doing shady stuff back then in recruiting, just like everyone else. But in the age of social media and the 24/7 exposure, we can't pull it off without giving up our "golden boy" image we try to maintain. It's also created a much more competitive marketplace for recruits as they no longer really need to go to a "big school" to get noticed.

 

[eNDzone]

When was the last time Saban had less than 85 players to choose from? Or should I say120 players?

 

[gkIrish]

It's only 2 things: coaching and scheduling. We've won 12 and 10 games with a so-so coach. No reason we can't win 14 with a great one.

Scheduling needs to be optimized as discussed in other threads.

Average to good coaching + bad scheduling means we will NEVER win a championship. Fix those two things and it will happen sooner than you think.

 

[NorthDakota]

Seeing the facilities some of these schools are building for their athletes does not help..

ND can win. It's harder to do it in South Bend than most blueblood schools but it can and will happen. I expect a Natty in the next decade....whether or not Kelly is the man to do it is another question.

Go Irish

 

[IrishLax]

It is absolutely as simple as coaching. Notre Dame is harder job than a lot of other Tier 1 places, but you can absolutely get the talent in that you need to win.

 

[Rocket89]

Scholarship reductions minimized the room for error needly greatly at Notre Dame. The Midwest base of power in recruiting has been eroding for decades. Forces more reliance on kids from other regions of the country less exposed to Notre Dame and its culture. Forces recruiting more kids who aren't Catholic. Speaking of which, the entire country as a whole isn't as religious as the past.

Recruiting at a consistently elite level really hasn't happened at Notre Dame for a quarter century. Vinny Cerrato was very good at his job, a great fit for a great coach, and someone who got right up to the line of NCAA violations--and crossed a few times. Once he left, even a great coach felt the pain in his wake.

Within about 20 years, the University has moved from a very well respected private school to a nationally (and in some cases internationally) elite academic school. This has made the admissions process for football stickier while having the effect of further alienating the athletes (who struggle to belong in the classroom) or even distracting others who can keep up in the classroom but find out football is trending towards hobby than future profession.

In the mid-1990's, just when the NBC deal was getting rolling and the stadium expansion was complete, the school should have re-focused itself and committed to football excellence. Instead, they fell asleep at the wheel. They neglected facilities, thought tradition was a secret sauce that would keep the engine running, and turn their attention away from dozens of innovations at the exact time the rest of the country was innovating more than at any time in decades.

By the early 2000's it was amazing how quickly the khakis-and-sneakers Gold Seats crowd had permeated campus leadership. The Baby Boomer generation was flooding the alumni ranks, wealtheir than ever, and their kids were becoming alumni, too. Then, Generation X came up behind them as the last group to see truly elite football. And they started using the internet, rebelling against the "Notre Disney" model, but uncomfortable changing any tradition. The secret sauce is to play football like it's 1989.

Large television deals have eroded Notre Dame's national presence. Closed the financial gap, as well.

Harder to recruit, a campus culture covering itself more and more in academic pursuits, money not going as far or meaning as much, and then we started sucking badly at football. Worst of all, Notre Dame became intensely uncool.

It's a bit of a circular trap, too. The modern history hurts your ability to recruit really well which makes the program's job of winning tougher, and when you don't win your ability to change your culture (or adapt a new one) takes much longer, which in turn puts a far greater reliance on the need for an elite coach.

An elite coach sees this and experienced this transformation too. They are far less likely to take the job than in the past which then makes the job of the AD much more difficult and we're back to the circular trap again.

Not only is our ceiling lowered in terms of winning--I'd say it's virtually impossible to go on anything close to the run Alabama is on but that's not controversial--but our ability to attract that elite coach has a lowered ceiling.

So that's the story of us.

 

[irish4ever]

#FuckMichigan

Ditto!!!

 

[irish4ever]

It is absolutely as simple as coaching. Notre Dame is harder job than a lot of other Tier 1 places, but you can absolutely get the talent in that you need to win.

Especially to beat the likes of Duke (AT HOME) and NC State! Geeesh!

 

[Irish#1]

It's not location, academics, TV money, weather. etc. It's simply coaching. While writers and sports guys were saying it was all those things, I always maintained it was just a string of bad hires. If it were all of the above, how did Frank, Ara and Lou manage to do it? BK came and showed elite kids will still come to ND. The problem is finding the right coach. We came close with BK, but were a little off.

 

[mick2]

When was the last time Saban had less than 85 players to choose from? Or should I say120 players?

bingo, oversigning and grayshirting/blueshirting players really helps you reload.

 

[Irish Insanity]

It's only 2 things: coaching and scheduling. We've won 12 and 10 games with a so-so coach. No reason we can't win 14 with a great one.

Scheduling needs to be optimized as discussed in other threads.

Average to good coaching + bad scheduling means we will NEVER win a championship. Fix those two things and it will happen sooner than you think.

I'm just going to skip posting from now on and bump all yours.

 

[NorthDakota]

bingo, oversigning and grayshirting/blueshirting players really helps you reload.

WTF is blueshirting

 

[Wingman Ray]

It's not location, academics, TV money, weather. etc. It's simply coaching. While writers and sports guys were saying it was all those things, I always maintained it was just a string of bad hires. If it were all of the above, how did Frank, Ara and Lou manage to do it? BK came and showed elite kids will still come to ND. The problem is finding the right coach. We came close with BK, but were a little off.

I have to disagree. We are talking about huge changes between todays generation and 1980 and before. Todays athletes want immediate gratification and have huge entitlement issues. How do you explain Bamas 5 star QB transfer? He could have stayed and won the starting job when the starting QB went down (which always happens with a running QB eventually) but instead, shot the gap for easier pastures. Now throw in academics that ND has proved you cant do, you dont play.

Also ND's golden days was built around the great white hope and Catholics. My dad tells me all the time about how back in his day, if you were Catholic and DIDNT go to ND when ND wanted you, you caught a ton of grief. Clearly today the majority of the players 1) arent white 2) arent Catholic and 3) Religion isnt a big deal to them.

Todays recruits get a ton of love thrown at them. And when I mean love, I mean under the table, sexual benefits and all kinds of things. Have you ever been to ND? I mean, out of 8k students, you have what maybe 100 female students that would remotely entice even if they could? Compare what kind of sexual attention FSU could give compared to ND. You laugh but it happens. It is real every single day.

Today's ND player has to want to be ND more than anything and those numbers are shrinking rapidly. Throw in that ND has a crap season with a crap coach and nothing major football wise to show in the last 30 years other than blow out losses when it played in big bowls...

Bama has a population culture of win at all cost. LSU has a population culture of win at all cost. OSU the same. FSU the same. ND has a reputation to uphold.

 

[Wingman Ray]

WTF is blueshirting

Blueshirting is when you have an offer, commit and then 3 days before signing the coach calls you and tells you that he really, really, really wants you on the team but the slate is full this year. If you just come to play (on your own dime but we know someone is picking the tab up) this year, the next year we will give you a scholarship.

But of course, if you arent a rockstar and they find out you may not be as good as they thought you were, you dont get the scholarship. But you dont find out until then.

Meanwhile you passed on the other scholarship offers and teams.

Slick Nick Saban does this all the time.

 

[Hammer Of The Gods]

Coaching. That simple. But, i'm telling you, you can not put a price tag on a quality strength staff. We are so below standard in terms of physical preparedness and mental and physical toughness its insane.

 

[PANDFAN]

WTF is blueshirting

A blue-shirt is a recruiting term that is beginning to take steam because more college programs are trying to use this recruiting tactic to their advantage. A blue-shirt is when a program doesn't scholarship a player until the next season or class.

 

[Luckylucci]

Not going to speak to whether ND will ever win a Natty again, I'm less concerned about that, than I am fielding a competitive team year in and year out. Win 9-11 games per year and give yourself a chance to beat the "elite" teams. As we've seen, the more talented teams, doesn't always win.

It is 100% coaching. There are a lot of different parts of coaching. Recruiting, development, game management, etc. But it still all comes back to coaching.

We had plenty of talent to beat the teams we played, so far this season. It all started with a DC that was clearly a complete assclown. We've literally played better, just by him leaving. The decision to hire and keep BVG was BK's, so a coaching mistake.

Its clear as day to me, that if we had a competent defense against UT, MSU, and Duke, we win those games. In turn, winning those games, I don't think you'd see the offensive side of the ball press as much or make the mistakes we are seeing now. This all goes back to coaching.

In fact, there is very little doubt in my mind, that this had, essentially, a snowball effect on the team and subsequent coaching decisions, that all started with BVG/the defense and the complete cluster fuck that BK has had to unravel since.

With that said, I think its a pretty easy coaching fix. You bring in a quality DC and I'd bet this team can bounce back next year.

 

[Luckylucci]

Take a look at Chris Petersen at UW. They had better recruiting under Sark, yet never came close to fielding this competitive of a team. The last 4 years of UW recruiting is such, class rank nationally:

16': 29th
15': 27th
14': 37th
13' 18th

And this is the team that is kicking the Pac 12's butt right now.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Take a look at Chris Petersen at UW. They had better recruiting under Sark, yet never came close to fielding this competitive of a team. The last 4 years of UW recruiting is such, class rank nationally:

16': 29th
15': 27th
14': 37th
13' 18th

And this is the team that is kicking the Pac 12's butt right now.

BINGO

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

The coaching theory seems to make the most sense to me.

After Holtz we worked with Bob Davie, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis. Kelly finally stepped in and restored a semblance of a winning program but what now..?

It honestly looks like he's topping off here.. Year 7 and we look like we're back at square 1. I know he's dealt with injury issues but his loyalty to crappy coaches is backfiring on not only him but the whole program.

Like someone mentioned, our S&C is consistently an issue, play calling is appalling at times and we always have development issues.

Hurts is a freshman at Bama.. they reload with young guys every year. Michigan has had Harbaugh for how long now? Urban snatched a NC in no time at OSU.

That has to be what we want right? Otherwise we can just be Rutgers fans..

As much as I like Kelly, I think HE has hit the ceiling.

 

[Irish#1]

I have to disagree. We are talking about huge changes between todays generation and 1980 and before. Todays athletes want immediate gratification and have huge entitlement issues. How do you explain Bamas 5 star QB transfer? He could have stayed and won the starting job when the starting QB went down (which always happens with a running QB eventually) but instead, shot the gap for easier pastures. Now throw in academics that ND has proved you cant do, you dont play.

Also ND's golden days was built around the great white hope and Catholics. My dad tells me all the time about how back in his day, if you were Catholic and DIDNT go to ND when ND wanted you, you caught a ton of grief. Clearly today the majority of the players 1) arent white 2) arent Catholic and 3) Religion isnt a big deal to them.

Todays recruits get a ton of love thrown at them. And when I mean love, I mean under the table, sexual benefits and all kinds of things. Have you ever been to ND? I mean, out of 8k students, you have what maybe 100 female students that would remotely entice even if they could? Compare what kind of sexual attention FSU could give compared to ND. You laugh but it happens. It is real every single day.

Today's ND player has to want to be ND more than anything and those numbers are shrinking rapidly. Throw in that ND has a crap season with a crap coach and nothing major football wise to show in the last 30 years other than blow out losses when it played in big bowls...

Bama has a population culture of win at all cost. LSU has a population culture of win at all cost. OSU the same. FSU the same. ND has a reputation to uphold.

We'll agree to disagree.

 

[Irish#1]

BINGO

So is it coaching or paying under the table and getting laid?

 

[Wingman Ray]

So is it coaching or paying under the table and getting laid?

Possibly all three?