Russia Invades Ukraine

[irishog77]

At the rate this war is going at what point do the US/EU have to sit down with China to figure out how to divide up Russia into East Russia and West Russia?

Are there some Hohenzollerns on ice somewhere to install as emperor?!

 

[Rasputin]

Are there some Hohenzollerns on ice somewhere to install as emperor?!

The House of Rasputin is tanned, rested and ready to serve.

 

[notredomer23]

Saw the Russians are going to bus people from Donbas into Kherson to hold a referendum to establish the Kherson People’s Republic

 

[PerthDomer]

100% but it should not surprise anybody. Biden is a buffoon. Im not sure that Putin ever would, but why eliminate the process of him having to calculate “what if”.

Because the what if the US intervenes decision tree might make him do something rash. If your enemy is making a mistake, let him. Russia is making a massive mistake.

 

[Hammer Of The Gods]

Do we know where North Korea stands in all of this? Could Putin leverage Kim?

 

[irishog77]

Do we know where North Korea stands in all of this? Could Putin leverage Kim?

Not really sure what north korea brings to the table for putin and russia.

 

[PerthDomer]

Not really sure what north korea brings to the table for putin and russia.

China holds all the cards there, and the Russia/Ukraine thing isn't great for them. They're more exposed to elevated commodity prices than we are, and their chief "ally" looks weaker and weaker. If Taiwan happens that's when they'd use their leverage there.

 

[drayer54]

I wish our government had the balls to hand over the planes. We are willing to give them everything else. May as well scoot some patriot batteries over the line and tell them which button to push. The forces of a tyrant are vulnerable and ripe for destruction, not sure why we wouldn’t want to push harder.

Russia trying to say NATO is creating legitimate targets in their arms handoffs and the same dream team of buffoons in DC that are scared of a crippled Russian army are going to deprive the people of Ukraine the planes they need. I have to think the Russians just want to piss pound Kyiv out of existence and kill Zelensky to negotiate with a replacement government and then put a puppet in place to have a buffer with NATO who they can rob of resources.

 

[BrownerandFry]

Think about this. Russia has lost 3 major generals in 2 weeks. Putin has apparently fired 8. Europeans estimate Russia had about 10k KIA before this weekend with massive material losses. Pitin has already put 5 high ranking spies on house arrest. As the Russians move closer to Kiev casualties will get higher. Economic sanctions will compound in country. Putin is racing against time and can't get a strategic win

We're also following the great power playbook of the cold war. No American soldiers, but sharing of weapons and intelligence. It's what the Soviets did in Vietnam and what we did in Afganistan.

The kicker is Russia is smaller and weaker than the US and the USSR. Ukraine is bigger/better armed than Vietnam in the 60s or Afganistan in the 80's. Putin took a big gamble with a bad hand. It's our job to make it clear this is direct Russia/Ukraine conflict and not bring nato in directly. But It's not our job to massage Putin's ego.

Very nice, it is as if you became the "Jeff Sagarin" of rating nations' power!

 

[BrownerandFry]

Do we know where North Korea stands in all of this? Could Putin leverage Kim?

Kim is sort of the Mike Brey of geopolitics.

Lot of noise early, but vanishes EARLY during tournament time.

 

[laughingirish90]

has anyone on this board that knows how to use an assault rifle thought about joining the thousands of men from around the world that have signed up to go to Ukraine to kill some evil bastard russian solders for what they've done to all the women and children including others. i would love to go over to Ukraine and kill as many of those russian bastards as possible if i was about 15 or so yrs younger and knew how to fire a weapon

 

[Hammer Of The Gods]

Not really sure what north korea brings to the table for putin and russia.

Just extra bodies.

Assuming he has his sights on more countries outside of Ukraine.

 

[BrownerandFry]

Because the what if the US intervenes decision tree might make him do something rash. If your enemy is making a mistake, let him. Russia is making a massive mistake.

You are channeling your inner Sun Tzu. Quid vide

I'm paraphrasing here, but Putin is flailing (I know, I know, Ukrainians are dying getting wounded and fleeing)

and in three short weeks he, AT HOME IN MOTHER RUSSIA

Is firing his "Fake news" Media

removing people from his inner circle

admitting that his "Sanction Proof" economy was full bullshit

making threats he can't pull off

More Ukrainians will suffer. That is a given.

The question is whether or not he will get a chance to do something stupidly nuclear as the act of a desperate man.

Every day that goes by he is less powerful in Russia. Every day

 

[PerthDomer]

Very nice, it is as if you became the "Jeff Sagarin" of rating nations' power!

It's obvious to anyone who looks. Their population is half the USSR and their age structure is in steep decline so they have even less working age/fighting age adults than that population implies. Your military is only what your economy can maintain.

Some of the Russia is strong mythology I think comes from falling for the Russia is the guardian of Slavic civilization/anti woke, and the old school gold bug/pro austerity politics you see in some places on the right. We're seeing how much of a farce the fortress economy and hyper masculine public face are.

 

[drayer54]

has anyone on this board that knows how to use an assault rifle thought about joining the thousands of men from around the world that have signed up to go to Ukraine to kill some evil bastard russian solders for what they've done to all the women and children including others. i would love to go over to Ukraine and kill as many of those russian bastards as possible if i was about 15 or so yrs younger and knew how to fire a weapon

I’m following the adventure of one on FB now. He was in when I was in. Free spirit type who does contract work and private security for high profile politics types. Everyone from Candace Owens to AOC. Whoever shows up in Des Moines. He made it to Budapest last I saw. I have high confidence in his marksmanship and understanding of the AR and AK platform.

I’m sure our State Department is looking the other way and you‘ll be screwed if anything happens to you. You also would have to have instant trust with whoever is with you.

 

[Irish#1]

It's shocking how bad most leaders must be at poker. Even if this is how you feel you gain nothing and give up a lot by saying "we're not willing to engage Russia under any circumstances." This is the kind of shit that gives them a tacit green light to use chemical weapons, etc. Literally Diplomacy 101 style stuff about how to posture and use rhetoric.

This is the guy that promoted his years of foreign policy experience during his campaign.

 

[drayer54]

This is the guy that promoted his years of foreign policy experience during his campaign.

Biden has 50 years ish of being wrong on every decision. Experience isn’t everything.

 

[NorthDakota]

100% but it should not surprise anybody. Biden is a buffoon. Im not sure that Putin ever would, but why eliminate the process of him having to calculate “what if”.

Russia could liquidate the entire Ukrainian population and Biden would still be right to say we aren't going in.

 

[NorthDakota]

If Russia takes Kiev they'll lose tens of thousands more soldiers and face months more under sanctions. If they take Kiev they'll have to keep going and face a resistance worse than what they saw in Afganistan. Russia could maybe "take" Kiev, but that risks internal instability, and they would win more conventional war and an ongoing insurgency. They're not a big enough country to pull that off in the long term.

This post ignores the possibility that Russia breaks Ukraine. From what it sounds like, Russia is willing to leave Ukraine if they basically cease and desist from trying to join NATO.

 

[Old Man Mike]

The Anti-Biden political quote a few numbers up ... another in an endless string of useless biased commentary. This executive branch is not determining stances like the "no nuke" "no WWIII" commentary. That verbal play is determined by advisors from the CIA and military intelligence at highest levels. And those guys aren't politicos (thank God.) To catch actual thoughtful guidance on this matter just read some of the remarks of Browner and Fry and PerthDomer above. They at least advance the discussion with non-political irrelevancies.

 

[drayer54]

The White House is resisting all this for the same reason it resisted the Russian oil embargo. Truly punishing sanctions against Russia’s energy sector are still anathema to Old Europe allies who want to continue importing Russian oil. The administration also fears that seriously targeting Russian energy would further drive up gasoline prices, hurting Mr. Biden domestically. Senate Foreign Relation Chairman Bob Menendez was, before the invasion, working with Mr. Risch on a bipartisan bill. At the behest of the White House, he went AWOL, and Democrats last week blocked a vote on the Risch legislation.

Republicans note that for all the talk of multilateralism, the U.S. is woefully trailing Europe in other areas. Since February the European Union has imposed sanctions on at least 12 oligarchs among the Navalny 35, a list of key Putin abetters compiled by dissident Alexei Navalny’s organization. The U.K. has targeted nine of them since February; the U.S., zero. Yes, Washington has targeted a handful of Putin cronies, but it’s only a sliver of the hundreds of oligarchs who hold Russia’s wealth. It did, however, announce a “task force” to investigate oligarch behavior. Twenty-two years into the Putin regime, the U.S. government doesn’t have that information?

The Biden team will argue that sanctions work best in conjunction with allies. No doubt. But the way to get the world to join in truly punishing and isolating Mr. Putin is to lead by example and to invite or shame allies into joining the fight. It’s not the current approach, which is to yammer in the halls of Foggy Bottom and settle for the path of least resistance. Mr. Biden can talk all he wants about his plans to cripple Mr. Putin’s economy. He has yet to take the steps that might actually do it.

 

[TorontoGold]

The Anti-Biden political quote a few numbers up ... another in an endless string of useless biased commentary. This executive branch is not determining stances like the "no nuke" "no WWIII" commentary. That verbal play is determined by advisors from the CIA and military intelligence at highest levels. And those guys aren't politicos (thank God.) To catch actual thoughtful guidance on this matter just read some of the remarks of Browner and Fry and PerthDomer above. They at least advance the discussion with non-political irrelevancies.

The more things change the more they stay the same. The defenders of neutrality will speak up on this, the stern defenders of intellectual honesty et al and stopping those from only talking to hear themselves l o l.

 

[NorthDakota]

The Anti-Biden political quote a few numbers up ... another in an endless string of useless biased commentary. This executive branch is not determining stances like the "no nuke" "no WWIII" commentary. That verbal play is determined by advisors from the CIA and military intelligence at highest levels. And those guys aren't politicos (thank God.) To catch actual thoughtful guidance on this matter just read some of the remarks of Browner and Fry and PerthDomer above. They at least advance the discussion with non-political irrelevancies.

I doubt it's decided by the CIA or the military lol. Joe Biden is not coherent 90% of the time.

He's right to not push for intervention but I doubt it has anything to do with what he's being told. He's just an old broken man who lies about how his loved ones died.

 

[GATTACA!]

Not really sure what north korea brings to the table for putin and russia.

Famine

 

[NorthDakota]

Famine

Russia ain't gonna have a famine in 2022. This isn't the 1800's.

 

[Old Man Mike]

NDAK what's with the immediate politicized crapnote?
I suppose we're back to "Don't ask for whom the bell trolls, it trolls for thee," and back to ignore.

The veteran CIA and Pentagon officials have HUGE says in any decisions regarding nuclear matters and threats, so much so that certain retired generals have remarked that they would disobey certain types of proclamations by certain Presidents in recent memory. .... so shove the LOL and actually learn something. (I could have read the post as being from someone at least slightly serious without the "lol" but that's the talisman of the troll or the ignoramus --- neither is flattering nor useful.)

 

[Valpodoc85]

Preparing for Defeat

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses.

www.americanpurpose.com

 

[NorthDakota]

NDAK what's with the immediate politicized crapnote?
I suppose we're back to "Don't ask for whom the bell trolls, it trolls for thee," and back to ignore.

The veteran CIA and Pentagon officials have HUGE says in any decisions regarding nuclear matters and threats, so much so that certain retired generals have remarked that they would disobey certain types of proclamations by certain Presidents in recent memory. .... so shove the LOL and actually learn something. (I could have read the post as being from someone at least slightly serious without the "lol" but that's the talisman of the troll or the ignoramus --- neither is flattering nor useful.)

Because if almost anyone else was President this probably wouldn't have happened.

We have the weakest POTUS since Carter and it shows.

 

[PerthDomer]

This post ignores the possibility that Russia breaks Ukraine. From what it sounds like, Russia is willing to leave Ukraine if they basically cease and desist from trying to join NATO.

Ukraine wants to join the EU and move in that direction. Russia won't have that. If Russia leaves and the ukraine continues to look west what then? This has only further pushed them against Russia. What does Russia do when Zelensky rebuilds the military and EU membership goes forward? Go back in?

 

[NorthDakota]

Ukraine wants to join the EU and move in that direction. Russia won't have that. If Russia leaves and the ukraine continues to look west what then? This has only further pushed them against Russia. What does Russia do when Zelensky rebuilds the military and EU membership goes forward? Go back in?

Probably goes back in. Though I doubt Ukraine would rebuild their military with the Bear keeping an eye on them.

We all want things we can't have. Ukraine isn't worth dying for and I'm guessing their leadership has found that out the last week or two.