Politics

[Irish YJ]

I can't believe it. Must be racism.

Reporter who slammed Sarah Sanders over pie complains she wasn't invited to White House Christmas party | Fox News

 

[Legacy]

Mystery money floods Alabama in Senate race's final days (Center for Public Integrity)

 

[IrishLax]

Roy Moore vs Doug Jones.... who ya got?!?

I think Doug gets it done, but it'll be close.

 

[Cackalacky]

Roy Moore vs Doug Jones.... who ya got?!?

I think Doug gets it done, but it'll be close.

I think Moore wins by just enough to avoid a recount.

 

[IrishLax]

I think Moore wins by just enough to avoid a recount.

Just saw African American turnout at 30% of total electorate.... think that bodes REALLY well for Jones if I understand projected demographics correctly.

 

[Wild Bill]

Moore started building some momentum the last week, according to polls (for whatever they're worth), but has come back down a bit the last day or so. My guess is he wins but not by as wide of a margin as Trump won the state.

 

[BGIF]

My wife and I voted for Jones. I'm an Independent, she's a big time conservative. My neighbor a big time church lady would not go vote for the first time in her 88 years.

For me it's the third election I've voted against Moore. Also voted against him in 3 primaries. The man was twice removed as Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court by his peers ... Republican judges.

Moore is not fit to hold any elective office.

Last night I flipped from station to station but it didn't matter they were all parsing forgery in a yearbook. In two hours of news coverage on the networks and cable not once did I hear it mentioned that Moore was removed from the Alabama Supreme Court not just once but twice.

 

[IrishLax]

My wife and I voted for Jones. I'm an Independent, she's a big time conservative. My neighbor a big time church lady would not go vote for the first time in her 88 years.

For me it's the third election I've voted against Moore. Also voted against him in 3 primaries. The man was twice removed as Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court by his peers ... Republican judges.

Moore is not fit to hold any elective office.

Last night I flipped from station to station but it didn't matter they were all parsing forgery in a yearbook. In two hours of news coverage on the networks and cable not once did I hear it mentioned that Moore was removed from the Alabama Supreme Court not just once but twice.

Yeah, it's stuff like this that makes me think Jones has got it in the bag. Lots of anecdotal stories about increased turnout from demographics against Moore AND lots of people who typically vote Republican staying home because they can't bring themselves to vote for Moore.

 

[BGIF]

Yeah, it's stuff like this that makes me think Jones has got it in the bag. Lots of anecdotal stories about increased turnout from demographics against Moore AND lots of people who typically vote Republican staying home because they can't bring themselves to vote for Moore.

I live in a very Republican area. We voted at 12:30 PM and turnout was the lightest I recall in the 25 years I've lived here.

This past week I went to Christmas parties in two different areas in the Birmingham Metro area. One was in the City of Birmingham which is very Democrat. I saw lots of Jones signs as expected. The other was in the suburbs (Republican territory) and I was stunned by the absence of Moore signs. My wife observed the same thing in her travels. Lots of Jones signs in Dem areas and a lack of signs in Republican areas. I have no idea if this narrow sample exists in other parts of the state. Again none of the newscasts I heard local or national commented on the proliferation or absence of signs.


Jones needs a big black turnout (Obama numbers) in Birmingham and Montgomery or a large no vote movement by Republicans.

 

[Cackalacky]

Just saw African American turnout at 30% of total electorate.... think that bodes REALLY well for Jones if I understand projected demographics correctly.

Oh yeah. That is a good turnout. I have seen the TO in general is at presidential election levels though I cant confirm.

 

[IrishLax]

Moore up about 5 points with 30% of the vote in

 

[NorthDakota]

Roy still up 5 with 39% reporting

 

[IrishLax]

70% reporting, Moore up 3. Going to be a pretty close finish.

 

[BGIF]

72% IN

Moore 50.5%
Jones 48.0%

Jones leads Jefferson Co (Birmingham) by 60,000 BUT only 50% counted.



NY Times Predicting Jones by 1.5% with a 62% Probability

Jones trails by about 20K

 

[BGIF]

79% IN

Moore leads by 13K

49.9% to 48.6%

 

[BGIF]

NYT predicts Jones by 2.4% with 77% Probability

 

[IrishLax]

Jones going to grab the lead as these cities finish reporting. Looks like Moore has run out of steam.

 

[IrishLax]

This is pretty crazy --- https://twitter.com/alexburnsnyt/status/940374724441526272

 

[BGIF]

85% IN (NYT)

Dead Heat

CANDIDATE	PARTY	VOTES	PCT.
Roy Moore Republican 527,231	49.2%
Doug Jones Democrat 527,098	49.2
Total Write-Ins — 16,760	1.6

 

[BGIF]

NYT

NYT

Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +7 to Moore +0.9. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

Our best guess is that Mr. Jones has an advantage, but paths to victory remain for Mr. Moore.

ESTIMATED MARGIN, in pct. points
Jones +3.3
REPORTED MARGIN

Median forecast
CHANCE OF WINNING
90%Jones
REPORTED MARGIN
No reported leader

 

[BGIF]

Jones now leads by 800 votes.

 

[BGIF]

89% IN

Jones +5,400

Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +4.3 to Jones +0.9. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

Our best guess is that Mr. Jones is currently on track to win the election.

ESTIMATED MARGIN, in pct. points
Jones +2.6
REPORTED MARGIN

Median forecast
CHANCE OF WINNING
>95%Jones
REPORTED MARGIN
No reported leader

 

[BGIF]

AP CALLS ELECTION FOR JONES

 

[BGIF]

Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +3.8 to Jones +0.8. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

Doug Jones has won the election, according to A.P.

ESTIMATED MARGIN, in pct. points
Jones +2.2


Median forecast
CHANCE OF WINNING
>95%Jones

 

[BGIF]

Jones winning by 11K with 18K having gone to Write-Ins.

 

[BGIF]

FOX CALLS JONES WINNER!

 

[BGIF]

CNN PROJECTS JONES WINNER!

 

[NorthDakota]

Sad deal. Pro choice senators are not good. Worse than creepy dudes.

Cant blame folks for staying at home though.

 

[BGIF]

NYT LIVE 10:34:52 PM ET
Alabama Election Results: Doug Jones Defeats Roy Moore in U.S. Senate Race
By MATTHEW BLOCH, NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ and JASMINE LEE


Doug Jones has won the election, according to A.P.

CANDIDATE	PARTY	VOTES	PCT.
Doug Jones Democrat 589,531	49.6%
Roy Moore Republican 581,225	48.9
Total Write-Ins — 18,727	1.6

92% reporting (2,040 of 2,220 precincts)

 

[Cackalacky]