Phil Steele's Most Over- and Underrated Teams

[Whiskeyjack]

Article can be found here.

Overrated:

#7 Stanford-Last year was a dream season for the Cardinal as they had the 2nd highest AP Poll finish (#4) in school history. This year they do return QB Andrew Luck who is clearly the #1 player for next year’s draft but do lose their top 2 WR’s, 3 starting OL and 4 starters from their defensive front 7. They have just 11 returning starters and go from the battled tested coaching legacy of Harbaugh to a 1st-yr HC. While two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten year, with the loss of their HC and finishing up with USC, Oregon St, Oregon, California and Notre Dame all in a row, they will not match LY’s 12 win total and will finish outside the Top 10.

Underrated:

#16 Notre Dame-Yes I know the Fighting Irish are probably the most underachieving team in the last 20 years but many signs are pointing upwards this year. HC Kelly who has a history of exceeding my expectations (6 of L/7 years) has a veteran squad with 17 returning starters that are now in the 2nd year of his schemes. While they do not have any cupcakes on the schedule they also have no teams in my Preseason Top 15. They could be favored in their first 11 games and remember Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Gene Chizik all won national titles in their 2nd years. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double digit wins with 3 of them calling for a 12-0 season!

#25 USC-The Trojans were hit hard by the NCAA LY with a loss of scholarships and no bowls for 2 years. I expected them to be thin but Kiffin found some loopholes and was able to sign 31 players this year and will field a very talented team that can win the Pac-12 South (just not play in the title game). QB Barkley pilots a potent offense and Kiffin Sr will have a much improved D.

USF-Skip Holtz was very successful at East Carolina including B2B CUSA Titles. This year the Bulls are a very talented team and only lose 15 lettermen (fewest in Big East). Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for 11 wins, and I will call for them to top last year’s 8 win total.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I agree completely with that.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I hope Stanford doesn't completely fall apart, though. I think that is a winnable game for ND, so I would prefer Stanford be 10-1/9-2 going into the game.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I hope Stanford doesn't completely fall apart, though. I think that is a winnable game for ND, so I would prefer Stanford be 10-1/9-2 going into the game.

I'd prefer all of our opponents to be 11-1

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I don't know if this makes me more excited about the season OR more nervous about the first game.

I've been a big Phil Steele fan for about a decade now - best betting info guy out there imho. So, regardless of the outcome of the USF game, as long as the Irish look good: a) if they lose, it isn't that bad a loss against a potential BCS team; or b) a great win and my expectations will elevate - only to be smashed by Pitt or Air Force.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I'd prefer all of our opponents to be 11-1

I wouldn't, at least not Stanford. They are a serious threat for athletes with superior academics. I want Stanford, Duke, and Northwestern to stay bad forever.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I wouldn't, at least not Stanford. They are a serious threat for athletes with superior academics. I want Stanford, Duke, and Northwestern to stay bad forever.

That's a good point, but I have a really hard time seeing Stanford dropping more than 3-4 games this season. So if the Cardinal is gonna be good, they might as well be really good so we look even better when we beat them.

 

[Kingbish01]

I wouldn't, at least not Stanford. They are a serious threat for athletes with superior academics. I want Stanford, Duke, and Northwestern to stay bad forever.

Great point, and I spent some time in Palo Alto...It's friggin great!

 

[irish1958]

Standford: 6-5

 

[BleedBlue&Gold]

Standford: 6-5

NO WAY! the only conference loss will be to Oregon.

 

[TDHeysus]

I think usc is in trouble....first, they have lane kiffin as the coach. but seriously, their roster is thin at spots, plus they have not been able to have all the contact in practice like they wanted to. I think usc is in a for down year, and I for one, hope that Notre Dame kicks them while they are down.

 

[BGIF]

Article can be found here.

Overrated:

#7 Stanford-Last year was a dream season for the Cardinal as they had the 2nd highest AP Poll finish (#4) in school history. This year they do return QB Andrew Luck who is clearly the #1 player for next year’s draft but do lose their top 2 WR’s, 3 starting OL and 4 starters from their defensive front 7. They have just 11 returning starters and go from the battled tested coaching legacy of Harbaugh to a 1st-yr HC. While two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten year, with the loss of their HC and finishing up with USC, Oregon St, Oregon, California and Notre Dame all in a row, they will not match LY’s 12 win total and will finish outside the Top 10.

...

Contrary to the way some people seem to be reading that Steele placed Stanford #16 in his Preseason Top 40. Not too shabby. Steeele noted then:

My concern is a rebuilt and the loss of their HC, but if that O-line comes together quickly SU is a legitimate National Title Contender.

In SU's team preview Steele commented on the loss of 3 OLs but noted:

This will be a quality unit but it clearly less exp'd.

In Phil's Forecast he added:

Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten yr but with the loss of their HC, and just 11 st'rs back they will not match LY's 12 win total.

SU doesn't face a Steele Top 40 Team until except Oregon in week 11 and ND two week later. Whether they adept to their HC and the O-line comes to together quickly for an NC run isn't my concern. They have 3 months for that O-line to gel before facing the Irish. The worse thing they have going for them is they face UW, USC, ORST, ORE, and CAL in the 5 weeks before ND. There should be a lot of bruising and walking wounded after that run.