Path to the CFP?

[BeatSC]

So do we have a legit path to the playoffs?
Here’s who’s ahead of us and should have one or more losses before bowl season:

Ole Miss 2 losses
Michigan 1-2 losses
Michigan St 1-3 losses
Iowa 2-3 losses and WTF are they doing ahead of us?!
Ok 1-3 losses but they suck
Oregon 1-2 losses
So we jump a one loss Cincy? 1993 FSU?
OSU is in with one loss not 2
Bama is in with one loss not 2
GA is in with one loss not 2
we need more style points frankly and we had a chance
at the goal line until some dipshit had a procedure call.

One loss ND gets in over any 2 loss team. Need the PAC 12, Big 12 and Big 10 to ruin everything for each other.

We need to win more convincingly as the season progresses. Both on the field and the scoreboard. 38-16 would have been a real eye opener.

This offense can score faster and score more with more Buchner. I think TB can be our red zone finisher.

 

[Riddickulous]

I don't think so. Very weak schedule.

 

[arndtjc]

No. And while it would be cool to go back to back appearances, I’m not trying to see this offense go against that Georgia defense. Let’s go 11-1 and play Wake in the Orange Bowl and win 60-46 or something like that

 

[Rogue219]

What's the path to beating North Carolina?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Our schedule is awful. This is why we should join a conference. We'd still have a shot. Don't know if it would matter though, I see us dropping another game somewhere.

 

[rtrn2glory]

We don't want to make it.... We want to win a legit bowl game and build for next year.

If we make it we're staring at another raping on the national scene

 

[BeatSC]

So no path then? You think Kelly and this team are hoping they rise no higher than #5 in order to avoid a beat down? I doubt they would want to pussy out.

 

[Irish4life]

We don't want to make it.... We want to win a legit bowl game and build for next year.

If we make it we're staring at another raping on the national scene

Gimme a CFP appearance no matter the result over a NY6 win 24/7, 365.

 

[Dale]

So no path then? You think Kelly and this team are hoping they rise no higher than #5 in order to avoid a beat down? I doubt they would want to pussy out.

You asked if there is a path and people said no lol. Nobody said the team themselves wouldn’t play their ass off to get to whatever the end result is or would “pussy out”

 

[yankeehater]

Not going to happen, but would love to get a rematch against Cincinnati in the playoff.

 

[BabyIrish]

It’s hard to say, we’ll know more when the rankings come out. If Cincy is in the playoff, then that means you’ve got SEC, Cincy, Big 10. So we would need OU to lose possibly twice, Oregon to lose another and Bama to lose to Georgia in the SEC championship. And even then we may not jump Bama.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Repeat after me.....

There is no possible path for Notre Dame
There is no possible path for Notre Dame

Our best win of the season will likely be a 4 or 5 loss team. Our schedule sucks and we have struggled against it. There are multiple potential 2 loss power 5 teams that will get far more consideration than us even if we win out.

 

[Irish8248]

I don't think there's even the slightest chance... we don't pass the eye test and there's no one left on our schedule who gives us that top credibility. A 10+ win season is a hellueva coaching job. I'll take the NY6 bowl with a win though.

 

[dad4aa]

Glad a lot you aren’t on the committee. No way a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND with their lone loss being against the #2 or #3 team in the country. We may not have a quality win but in the scenario mentioned, every 2-loss above us will have a terrible loss.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Glad a lot you aren’t on the committee. No way a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND with their lone loss being against the #2 or #3 team in the country. We may not have a quality win but in the scenario mentioned, every 2-loss above us will have a terrible loss.

LOL No

 

[Dale]

Glad a lot you aren’t on the committee. No way a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND with their lone loss being against the #2 or #3 team in the country. We may not have a quality win but in the scenario mentioned, every 2-loss above us will have a terrible loss.

The scenario mentioned is 0.0000000001% chance of happening. Rounding up.

 

[dad4aa]

The scenario mentioned is 0.0000000001% chance of happening. Rounding up.

I agree it won’t happen. The problem is there are people thinking a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND. Just done see that happening.

 

[Dale]

I agree it won’t happen. The problem is there are people thinking a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND. Just done see that happening.

If you map out the above, I can absolutely point to a 2 loss B1G and SEC team that would have a better resume than ND. Not to mention the Baylor, UK etc omitted.

 

[dad4aa]

Let’s hope the 0.0000000001% chance happens then so we can see who is right.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I agree it won’t happen. The problem is there are people thinking a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND. Just done see that happening.

It depends on the the team and the two losses. Looking at it realistically, the only two loss teams I could see getting in are Texas A&M and OSU.

For A&M it's simple....they need Bama to lose one more and they run the table, including SECCG. That would give them wins over a 10-2 Bama squad, Georgia, Ole Miss, Auburn. They would probably have 2 of the top 5 victories in all of CFB, including the best victory (UGA) in that scenario. I just don't see how they would not get in if that were to happen (it's a long shot).

A 2 loss OSU would get in above 1-loss ND if the following happened:

- OSU loses to MSU, beats UM
- UM beats MSU
- UM / OSU beat PSU
- PSU beats MSU
- OSU win Big 10 by beating 1 loss Iowa

Final records - OSU 11-2, with wins against 2 top 10 teams in back to back weeks. Two losses would be to 15 teams too.
UM 11-1
MSU 10-2
Iowa 10-2
PSU - lol

Again, it's not a likely scenario, but I just don't see how OSU wouldn't get in in that scenario, especially if Cincy, Oregon or OU loses.

 

[BeatSC]

The scenario mentioned is 0.0000000001% chance of happening. Rounding up.

So what you’re saying is there’s a chance?!

 

[BeatSC]

If you map out the above, I can absolutely point to a 2 loss B1G and SEC team that would have a better resume than ND. Not to mention the Baylor, UK etc omitted.

One loss trumps 2 losses on the resume. Bottom line. 11-1 and we are in. As ling as we keep winning this thread lives on! Gotta have something to live for right?

Question: if we lose another game so we abandon Coan and get Buchner the extra experience while also seeing what me missed out on by not starting him all along?

 

[BeatSC]

It depends on the the team and the two losses. Looking at it realistically, the only two loss teams I could see getting in are Texas A&M and OSU.

For A&M it's simple....they need Bama to lose one more and they run the table, including SECCG. That would give them wins over a 10-2 Bama squad, Georgia, Ole Miss, Auburn. They would probably have 2 of the top 5 victories in all of CFB, including the best victory (UGA) in that scenario. I just don't see how they would not get in if that were to happen (it's a long shot).

A 2 loss OSU would get in above 1-loss ND if the following happened:

- OSU loses to MSU, beats UM
- UM beats MSU
- UM / OSU beat PSU
- PSU beats MSU
- OSU win Big 10 by beating 1 loss Iowa

Final records - OSU 11-2, with wins against 2 top 10 teams in back to back weeks. Two losses would be to 15 teams too.
UM 11-1
MSU 10-2
Iowa 10-2
PSU - lol

Again, it's not a likely scenario, but I just don't see how OSU wouldn't get in in that scenario, especially if Cincy, Oregon or OU loses.

Sounds like we win out and we’re in!!!

 

[Ndaccountant]

Sounds like we win out and we’re in!!!

No, don't think so. Realistically, we should assume one of UM and OSU is in. UGA should be in barring a major upset. Oklahoma is a very flawed team, but I just don't see anyone in the Big 12 beating them. Oregon would get in if they make it unbeaten the rest of the way. Bama needs to win out to be in (including beating UGA). Then there is Cincy.

Chaos could happen, but for ND to make it, they most likely need OSU to lose once more, UM to lose twice, MSU to lose twice, Iowa to lose once, Oklahoma to probably lose twice, Oregon to lose once more, Bama to lose once more, Ole Miss to lose once more, Cincy to lose twice, and probably Kentucky once more as well.

With 4 spots, you know that SEC and Big 10 are very likely to get at least once spot. The final 2 will be between Pac 12 winner, Big 12 winner, SEC#2, Big 10#2 and Cincy. I just don't see a scenario playing out at all where a 1 loss ND get's in versus a 1 loss of those final 2. It's going to take a super chaotic November.

 

[GATTACA!]

No, don't think so. Realistically, we should assume one of UM and OSU is in. UGA should be in barring a major upset. Oklahoma is a very flawed team, but I just don't see anyone in the Big 12 beating them. Oregon would get in if they make it unbeaten the rest of the way. Bama needs to win out to be in (including beating UGA). Then there is Cincy.

Chaos could happen, but for ND to make it, they most likely need OSU to lose once more, UM to lose twice, MSU to lose twice, Iowa to lose once, Oklahoma to probably lose twice, Oregon to lose once more, Bama to lose once more, Ole Miss to lose once more, Cincy to lose twice, and probably Kentucky once more as well.

With 4 spots, you know that SEC and Big 10 are very likely to get at least once spot. The final 2 will be between Pac 12 winner, Big 12 winner, SEC#2, Big 10#2 and Cincy. I just don't see a scenario playing out at all where a 1 loss ND get's in versus a 1 loss of those final 2. It's going to take a super chaotic November.

Oklahoma State is 100% beating OU. OU just got pushed to their limit by KANSAS.

Cincy only needs to lose once.

Just for reference ESPN has us at a 32% chance of making it winning out and 538 has us at 34% with winning out. I wouldn't bet my life on those percentages, but they are far from a million to one shot.

 

[BeatSC]

Oklahoma State is 100% beating OU. OU just got pushed to their limit by KANSAS.

Cincy only needs to lose once.

1993 we beat FSU and they are ranked ahead of us. Cincy loses one game and we jump them.

 

[GATTACA!]

1993 we beat FSU and they are ranked ahead of us. Cincy loses one game and we jump them.

Absolutely. The committee will have to have their arm twisted to let them in even undefeated. If they lose any game they're out no matter what.

 

[BeatSC]

Absolutely. The committee will have to have their arm twisted to let them in even undefeated. If they lose any game they're out no matter what.

Works for me!

 

[Ndaccountant]

Oklahoma State is 100% beating OU. OU just got pushed to their limit by KANSAS.

Cincy only needs to lose once.

Just for reference ESPN has us at a 32% chance of making it winning out and 538 has us at 34% with winning out. I wouldn't bet my life on those percentages, but they are far from a million to one shot.

If OU loses once, to your point, OSU, I still think they get in if they are 12-1.

In that scenario, they would have wins over both Iowa State and Baylor. While I don't think either of those wins are all that great, it would still be two ranked victories over the final month of the season. ND might not have any victories over a ranked team by season's end. Best hope is for Wisconsin to take out Iowa and get past the rest of their schedule, which seems unlikely. Simply put, it's likely ND will not have any victory of note by year end.

 

[Ndaccountant]

1993 we beat FSU and they are ranked ahead of us. Cincy loses one game and we jump them.

FSU was the media darling at that point. The previous few years the media would constantly bemoan the fact that FSU hadn't won a title, despite being the "best team" at the end of the year. Simply put, it was rigged to favor FSU so Bobby B could finally win a ring. It's even more odd in light of 1989, where Miami got the nod over ND because of head to head. Either way, much different times.