Oversigning Recruits

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Alabama Oversigning - Who among current verbals could lose their spots?

Alabama Oversigning - Who among current verbals could lose their spots?

Alabama has three realistic targets that could be added to their Alabama's Class of 2015 (twenty-six verbals at this time)

Prior to the Class of 2015 and any transfers, Alabama's OL has four OTs, 3 OGs, and 3 Centers. The Class of 2015 has four verbals at OG, none for C (247 classifications), and one OT(Womack), who flipped from LSU. I think they are done at OG/C, perhaps more than they have targeted. In play for other OTs is not only Christian Valentine-Okeke but Isaiah Prince, both ot whom they would take.

If both Prince and COV commit, they have twenty-eight commits. Bama is also pursuing a twenty-nineth, a WR, Daylon Charlot, who has Alabama as his favorite, but is a Louisiana resident with LSU a possibility.

Over recruiting
They have overrecruited at CB (four verbals with five current CBs), at OLB (three verbals with four current OLBs) at NG (three verbals with five current NGs), at WDE(three verbals with three current DEs) and at OG (four verbals with three current OGs) and at RB (two verbals with five current, counting Scarborough). Two of the three DEs verbally are classified as WDEs.

Without accounting for transfers, academic casualties or injuries in the current Alabama players at those positions, the four in the Class of 2015 who would probably be among:
Brandon Kennedy (OG), Keaton Anderson (OLB), Montrels Custis (CB), Matt Womack (OT), and either Christian Bell or Anfernee Jennings (WDE).

Four of those six are Alabma residents. All are three stars. At thist point, Alabama has six commits from In-state.

The most likely attrition of current players is at RB and NG.
 
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Domina Nostra

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Alabama has three realistic targets that could be added to their Alabama's Class of 2015 (twenty-six verbals at this time)

Prior to the Class of 2015 and any transfers, Alabama's OL has four OTs, 3 OGs, and 3 Centers. The Class of 2015 has four verbals at OG, none for C (247 classifications), and one OT(Womack), who flipped from LSU. I think they are done at OG/C, perhaps more than they have targeted. In play for other OTs is not only Christian Valentine-Okeke but Isaiah Prince, both ot whom they would take.

If both Prince and COV commit, they have twenty-eight commits. Bama is also pursuing a twenty-nineth, a WR, Daylon Charlot, who has Alabama as his favorite, but is a Louisiana resident with LSU a possibility.

Over recruiting
They have overrecruited at CB (four verbals with five current CBs), at OLB (three verbals with four current OLBs) at NG (three verbals with five current NGs), at WDE(three verbals with three current DEs) and at OG (four verbals with three current OGs) and at RB (two verbals with five current, counting Scarborough). Two of the three DEs verbally are classified as WDEs.

Without accounting for transfers, academic casualties or injuries in the current Alabama players at those positions, the four in the Class of 2015 who would probably be among:
Brandon Kennedy (OG), Keaton Anderson (OLB), Montrels Custis (CB), Matt Womack (OT), and either Christian Bell or Anfernee Jennings (WDE).

Four of those six are Alabma residents. All are three stars. At thist point, Alabama has six commits from In-state.

The most likely attrition of current players is at RB and NG.

Kelly needs to get Saban on the phone. This could work out for everyone.
 

Legacy

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Issues on some aspects of Oversigning

Issues on some aspects of Oversigning

Greyshirting
A Quick Note on Greyshirting (2012 from RollBamaRoll)

The RBR articles are well-written and the comments are worth reading. Conclusions can be quite divergent from those outside of Alabama. From the first part of this article:

"As inevitable as the sun rising in the east, another National Signing Day was followed by another outcry against greyshirting and all of its supposed ills, and as is typically the case much of the spotlight was on Alabama. ...The outcry is predictable at this point, but the recent hard cap imposed by the SEC has worked to make such situations more frequent. With all of that in mind, a quick thought on greyshirting."

The incidence of greyshirting at Alabama has decreased over the past few years: 2008-1, 2009-3, 2010-2, 2012-1 (another one - Justin Taylor, RB - refused the offer and went to Kentucky). One potential greyshirt in the class of 2014 received a scholarship when one recruit with a scholarship did not qualify. The Classes of 2011, 2013, 2014 did not have any greyshirts.

All that leads to a SBNation article on greyshirting that, at the same time, comes to a different conclusion. 2012's First Oversigning Controversy Comes At Alabama, But It Won't Be Last This article refers to the Justin Taylor situation.

"On the face of it, this is an improvement over the old system. Saban was forced to break the news about the grayshirt ahead of National Signing Day because of the SEC's 25 player cap. It's possible that, under the old system, Alabama could have signed Taylor (because there was a 28-player cap) and then converted him to a grayshirt after signing day if it had too many players heading into fall camp. Taylor would then have to sit out a year as a transfer if he didn't want to grayshirt this coming fall."
Taylor had an injury and had to sit out his senior year in high school, and had committed to Alabama eleven months prior to Signing Day.

Is the SEC system to blame? Or is it helping?

Most SEC teams, if not all, are greyshirting less frequently but with the consent of the recruit prior to Signing Day. Most teams are not utitlizing "Sign and Place". All signees count towards a team's quotas, so how a recruit stands towards passing the NCAA's minimum standard is known. A team can take chances on a recruit or two that may not meet standards.
 
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IrishLion

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Bama is looking at being 10+ over as their class stands now.

With Tennpenny and another gone, thats 2 down and 8+ to go.
 

Legacy

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Over recruiting
They have overrecruited at CB (four verbals with five current CBs), at OLB (three verbals with four current OLBs) at NG (three verbals with five current NGs), at WDE(three verbals with three current DEs) and at OG (four verbals with three current OGs) and at RB (two verbals with five current, counting Scarborough). Two of the three DEs verbally are classified as WDEs.

Without accounting for transfers, academic casualties or injuries in the current Alabama players at those positions, the four in the Class of 2015 who would probably be among:
Brandon Kennedy (OG), Keaton Anderson (OLB), Montrels Custis (CB), Matt Womack (OT), and either Christian Bell or Anfernee Jennings (WDE).


Four of those six are Alabma residents. All are three stars. At thist point, Alabama has six commits from In-state.

The most likely attrition of current players is at RB and NG.

Attrition has occurred at RB with Altee Tenpenny transferring.

With twenty-six verbals, Alabama would like to add an OT and a WR commit (at least). How will they manage to end up with twenty-five?

Montrel Custis, 3* CB visited Kentucky last weekend, is at Bama this weekend, then Florida on 1/30. The other three CB commits are four or five stars.

TD Moton, 3* NG visited Mississippi State last weekend and Bama this weekend.

Mekhi Brown, DE, is not a hard commit, visiting Louisville this past weekend. Neither of the other two WDE verbals - Jennings and Ball (above) have visited anywhere else.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, is also not a hard commit, and visited Louisville last weekend and will visit Bama this weekend.

Currently, Bama would need three of these four to sign elsewhere to open up the final two spots for an OT and a WR. Chances for a WR are slimming with Daylon Charlot leaning to staying close to home at LSU. Lawrence Cager, currently committed to Miami, and K.J. Hill, currently committed to Arkansas, are possiblities. Both visited Bama last weekend. Bama is also hosting Holton Hill, CB/KR, on Jan 30th.
 

NDWorld247

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Attrition has occurred at RB with Altee Tenpenny transferring.

With twenty-six verbals, Alabama would like to add an OT and a WR commit (at least). How will they manage to end up with twenty-five?

Montrel Custis, 3* CB visited Kentucky last weekend, is at Bama this weekend, then Florida on 1/30. The other three CB commits are four or five stars.

TD Moton, 3* NG visited Mississippi State last weekend and Bama this weekend.

Mekhi Brown, DE, is not a hard commit, visiting Louisville this past weekend. Neither of the other two WDE verbals - Jennings and Ball (above) have visited anywhere else.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, is also not a hard commit, and visited Louisville last weekend and will visit Bama this weekend.

Currently, Bama would need three of these four to sign elsewhere to open up the final two spots for an OT and a WR. Chances for a WR are slimming with Daylon Charlot leaning to staying close to home at LSU. Lawrence Cager, currently committed to Miami, and K.J. Hill, currently committed to Arkansas, are possiblities. Both visited Bama last weekend. Bama is also hosting Holton Hill, CB/KR, on Jan 30th.

Alabama had seven players enroll early. Some, or all, could count towards last year's number. Since schools don't publicly disclose whether EEs are counted forward or backward as it relates to the 25-player cap, it's impossible to know precisely how many spots they had left in last year's class. With seven EEs, Alabama could sign up to 32 players this cycle, hypothetically.

Of course that would result in massive over-signing, but my point is they aren't limited to signing 25 players in the 2015 class.
 

Bishop2b5

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Alabama had seven players enroll early. Some, or all, could count towards last year's number. Since schools don't publicly disclose whether EEs are counted forward or backward as it relates to the 25-player cap, it's impossible to know precisely how many spots they had left in last year's class. With seven EEs, Alabama could sign up to 32 players this cycle, hypothetically.

Of course that would result in massive over-signing, but my point is they aren't limited to signing 25 players in the 2015 class.

Schools can't just arbitrarily count EE's towards last year's class or this year's. If a school doesn't use its full allotment of 25 scholarships in a class, it can save those unused ones to sign a larger class the following season with a total not to exceed 50 in any two year period. However, those unused scholarships from the previous year can only be used on EE's. If you don't have any EE's the following year, you just lose those scholarships. The number of scholarships a program has left from the previous year is usually common knowledge and very easy to determine. You just look at how many of their 25 signees qualified and enrolled. In Bama's case last year, we signed 25, but Bo Scarbrough failed to qualify, thus we only awarded 24 schollies. Bo has now qualified, enrolled a couple of weeks ago, and that unused scholarship from last year is being used on him and he'll count as the 25th member of last year's class, leaving us with 25 to award this NSD.

We can't sign 32 players this NSD. EE's who don't count towards last year's class count as part of this year's. No matter what, other than some extreme circumstances where the NCAA will make an exception, a school can only award 50 scholarships in a rolling two year period. EE's don't give you extra players or a way around that 50 in 2 rule. They're just players from your upcoming signing class who've graduated high school early and enrolled in January instead of August. They still count towards the 25 players in your new class that will be signing LOI's a few weeks later on NSD. In our case, we can back count 1 EE to last year's class since we had a scholarship left over from last year. The other 6 will count towards this year's class and we'll only be able to sign another 19 on NSD.
 

Legacy

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Alabama had seven players enroll early. Some, or all, could count towards last year's number. Since schools don't publicly disclose whether EEs are counted forward or backward as it relates to the 25-player cap, it's impossible to know precisely how many spots they had left in last year's class. With seven EEs, Alabama could sign up to 32 players this cycle, hypothetically.

Of course that would result in massive over-signing, but my point is they aren't limited to signing 25 players in the 2015 class.

Alabama had twenty-six players sign letters of intent last year on NSD. Two did not qualify - Bo Scarbrough and Montel McBride. So they ended up with twenty-four enrollees. Scarbrough has enrolled this month, so he counts backward making the 2014 class count of twenty-five.

Since the 2014 class is then considered full then by the NCAA, all early enrollees have to count towards the 2015 class.

The only exception to recruiting caps is if the team will not make the limit of eighty-five total scholarship players when the signees with the incoming class are counted. That's not the case with Alabama.

The changes in the roster so far this offseason in addition to Scarbrough's enrollment, Altee Tenpenny and Malcolm Faciane are no longer on the team. A walk-on, Parker Barrineau, was given a scholarship. With those changes and counting an expected enrollment of twenty-five, Alabama would be at ninety-one players. I am not sure if Kurt Freitag, who was caught dealing marijuana is still on the team, but I'll count him for now.

So, their first goal is to narrow the 2015 class to twenty-five and then they need to get to eighty-five.
 
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Legacy

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The other recruiting restriction for Alabama is the SEC rules that went into effect in the fall of 2012. All recruits who sign with a team are considered "counters" towards limits, whether they qualify and enroll or not. The SEC limits "counters" to twenty-five in a class and to fifty total in two consecutive classes.

Alabama had twenty-six "counters" last year and may be limited to twenty-four this year. Prior to NSD, we may see either some recruits who have verballed get dropped because they did not qualify or scholarship offers withdrawn from some of the current verbal commitments to reach the twenty-four limit.
 

Bishop2b5

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I forgot about McBride. You are correct. 26 signed last year and 2 didn't qualify. Still means 24 actually received scholarships and we had 1 left over.

Somewhere between now and August, we have to reduce our number of players by 6. Given that Saban's already given a schollie to a walk on, I assume he already knows there are at least 5 or 6 players who are planning to transfer or will not be asked back as 5th year seniors. With the number of QB's on our roster and Barnett coming in, I'll be VERY surprised if at least 1 (and probably 2) of the QB's don't transfer after spring training (and possibly sooner).
 
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NDWorld247

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You're both assuming that all of the players signed in the 2014 class counted towards the 2014 class. Alabama had seven EEs in 2014 and we don't know how many of them counted towards the 2013 class. What if they all counted and Alabama's real number for 2014 was 17, not 24?

We don't know how many counted towards 2013 or 2014 because that's not info that Alabama, or any school, has to disclose.

My point was Alabama isn't limited to 25 this year. No one is limited to 25 in a given year even though that is the rule. As with any rule, there are ways around it and Alabama will almost certainly sign more than 25 in 2015. It doesn't mean they are breaking any rules.

Bishop...can you reference the 50 in 2 rule? I searched online and couldn't find it anywhere.
 

Legacy

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You're both assuming that all of the players signed in the 2014 class counted towards the 2014 class. Alabama had seven EEs in 2014 and we don't know how many of them counted towards the 2013 class. What if they all counted and Alabama's real number for 2014 was 17, not 24?

We don't know how many counted towards 2013 or 2014 because that's not info that Alabama, or any school, has to disclose.

My point was Alabama isn't limited to 25 this year. No one is limited to 25 in a given year even though that is the rule. As with any rule, there are ways around it and Alabama will almost certainly sign more than 25 in 2015. It doesn't mean they are breaking any rules.

Bishop...can you reference the 50 in 2 rule? I searched online and couldn't find it anywhere.

NDW,
Just use the link to the Rivals commitment list and go back year by year to confirm that backcounting is not a factor.

The quick answer for you, if you would prefer, is the following class numbers from 2008 to 2014:
2008-28+4 walkons (the twenty-eight includes one greyshirt, one academic casualty and two who chose MLB - ended up with 24
2009 - 27 (26 enrolled) - 1 counted backwards
2010 - 27 (25 enrolled)
2011 - 24 (all enrolled)
2012 - 26 (25 enrolled)
2013 - 26 (25 enrolled)
2014 - 26 (24 enrolled)

Saban has been strict. Disiplicine has been swift. Often the transgressor is off the team Last year's offseason arrests with players kicked off the team helped the numbers crunch and getting to eighty-five. So far this year, it's been quiet, though Ryan Anderson, a second string LB, was just arrested.

Over the last four classes, thirteen players have been arrested. Four are left on the team.

What happens with the annual numbers crunch if more players don't get into trouble, if everyone goes to class and keep their grades up, and contribute to the football team?

One greyshirt in the last four years. Three med scholarship offers in the last four years. Those probably will not be factors.

Only three early entrants to the NFL draft. So it may come down to not offering fifth years and to transfers to get to eighty-five.
 
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NDWorld247

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Legacy...the OP that I commented on said:

With twenty-six verbals, Alabama would like to add an OT and a WR commit (at least). How will they manage to end up with twenty-five?

I'm simply saying that Alabama doesn't need to end up at 25 on NSD, and, backcounting is most certainly a factor. I'm not arguing that Alabama doesn't oversign. You, and many posters over the past few years, have done a great job illustrating how Alabama oversigns. I'm not here to defend Alabama's annual numbers crunch.

Your OP made it seem like Saban needed to "cut" some current commits in order to free up space for the OT and WR recruits they'd like to sign. While they will definitely need to "cut" some players, it's not necessarily current commits. They can sign over 25.

And, if backcounting isn't a factor, explain to me how Tennessee was able to sign 32 recruits last year and have another 28 on tap for this cycle?
 

Legacy

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Legacy...the OP that I commented on said:



I'm simply saying that Alabama doesn't need to end up at 25 on NSD, and, backcounting is most certainly a factor. I'm not arguing that Alabama doesn't oversign. You, and many posters over the past few years, have done a great job illustrating how Alabama oversigns. I'm not here to defend Alabama's annual numbers crunch.

Your OP made it seem like Saban needed to "cut" some current commits in order to free up space for the OT and WR recruits they'd like to sign. While they will definitely need to "cut" some players, it's not necessarily current commits. They can sign over 25.

And, if backcounting isn't a factor, explain to me how Tennessee was able to sign 32 recruits last year and have another 28 on tap for this cycle?

NDW,
We'll disagree then on the count for Albama's 2015 class.

I don't think T.J. Moten and Montrel Custis remain in this class with the crunch. Both have taken visits elsewhere. Moten probably ends up at Miss State. Custis goes to Kentucky with his brother. That leaves twenty-four. Mekhi Brown, LB and Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB are soft commits. That leaves twenty-two hard commits. They will be fine at those positions if both decommit.

WRs - After this past weekend's Official visitors, KJ Hill, Arkansas commit, has decommited. Alabams is hosting two other WRs this weekend. Bama has five WR targets.

OTs - Their two OT targets have visited Alabama.

One commit at each position would make twenty-six total (minus Moten and Custis).
 
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Legacy

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Tennessee Oversigning

Tennessee Oversigning

NDW,

Tennessee deserves a separate response. For the class of 2014, Butch Jones could sign thirty-two because of the NCAA reg (and SEC exception) to get to eighty-five total. Even with all thirty-two enrolling, he ended up with eighty-two scholarship players for 2014. Jones gave out walkon scholarships.

This year is different. Tennessee will have the numbers crunch Alabama has. Tennessee is worth watching to see how it shakes out.

Sixteen players have used up their eligibility. He has had three transfers out so far and given out two scholarships (a walk-on and a fifth year transfer). He has those three extra after last year's class falling short of eighty-five total.

That makes twenty available scholarships. With twenty-eight verbals, Tenn is eight over the eight-five limit. With more targeted, there will be more movement among current scholarship players and/or the current 2015 class.

What will come into play next year is the fifty scholarship limit over two years. If he can fit in twenty-eight, for example, he could potentially take only twenty-two in 2016. However, those seniors in 2015 running out of eligibility are smaller than that.

Also see Post 641 on this topic for a further analysis
 
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PANDFAN

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makes you wonder if he was forced out due to #s

makes you wonder if he was forced out due to #s

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Due to circumstances, I am decommiting from the University of Tennessee and opening up my recruitment...</p>— Marques Ford (@Marques_Ford) <a href="https://twitter.com/Marques_Ford/status/558013555765956609">January 21, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

they were 8 over w/ him as noted by Legacy's post above
 

Big23Head

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Are we discussing NDs numbers in another thread? I couldn't find it if so. What about our numbers? It seems like ND has a shot to be 1-3 over and not asking back some 5th years most thought would be back.
 
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Irish YJ

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Are we discussing NDs numbers in another thread? I couldn't find it if so. What about our numbers? It seems like ND has a shot to be 1-3 over and not asking back some 5th years most thought would be back.

that would not be over signing....
there's a few threads talking about this (NDs #s and what 5th years will be asked back)
 

PANDFAN

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Td moten decommitted from bama, a linebacker commit visiting Michigan....guess Saban wasn't lying when he said to crager they would make room
 

Legacy

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Are we discussing NDs numbers in another thread? I couldn't find it if so. What about our numbers? It seems like ND has a shot to be 1-3 over and not asking back some 5th years most thought would be back.

Bighead,

Here you are. Always a nice and in depth breakdown by Eric Murtaugh, OFD - 2015 Notre Dame Recruiting: Scholarships & Roster Depth

Click on the link "OFD Living Roster", which you can copy.

"Okay, let's do some math. Right now let's say Martin, Schmidt, Golson, Williams, and Farley become the 5th-year options next season. Let's also remove Nicky Baratti who may be placed on medical scholarship with a bum shoulder.

22 + 23 + 22 + 11 + 5 = 83 scholarships

Without any further attrition there would be room for 2 more recruits in the 2015 class."

and "Notre Dame should be able to fit 3 more players into the 2015 class without a problem. "

and one more due to McKinney's decommitment. Right now three is a good working number. Targets would be RB, S, and WR.
 
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Legacy

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Td moten decommitted from bama, a linebacker commit visiting Michigan....guess Saban wasn't lying when he said to crager they would make room

Thanks, PANDFAN.

Alabama down to twenty-five verbals with more movement to come. Montrels Custis will probably decommit next.

The OLB visiting Michigan is Joshua McMillon, currently one of three verbals to Bama. A four star, ranked 18th OLB (247). The other two are Adonis Thomas (4*, #15) and Keaton Anderson(3*, #53 OLB), Ala resident, who committed to the Tide at the end of May. Of course, if McMillon goes to Michigan, Anderson probably gets a scholarship.

Their verbals at DE (all WDEs) look similar - two high ranking ones and a three star Ala resident (#26) who committed to the Tide in April - Christian Bell - and not taken any other visits. The other two are Mekhi Brown (#5) and Anfernee Jennings (#7).

Bell and/or Anderson would be most vulnerable with more commitments. They could be greyshirts or pay their own way.

Subtracting Custis, Bell and Anderson would give Alabama twenty-two commits. Room to add an OT and a WR. That would then leave them with only one three star commit, for what that is worth.
 
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Legacy

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Due to circumstances, I am decommiting from the University of Tennessee and opening up my recruitment...</p>— Marques Ford (@Marques_Ford) <a href="https://twitter.com/Marques_Ford/status/558013555765956609">January 21, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

they were 8 over w/ him as noted by Legacy's post above

Coach: Vols pull offer from 4-star DE Marques Ford

Frank LaRosa, who coached the defensive end at East Bay High School near Tampa, Fla., said Ford received a call from Tennessee defensive line coach Steve Stripling on Wednesday — exactly two weeks before national signing day.

"It's an ugly business," LaRosa said. " … In the nasty business, they kept it sort of honest by at least saying that they had other commits and they were pulling his commitment."


Subsequent to pulling the scholarship from Marques Ford, John Kelly, Ath, committed to Tennessee, who remain at twenty-eight verbals. Both Ford's and Kelly's Official Visits to Tennessee occured last weekend.

Ford committed to Rutgers tonight.

"That wasn't his choice. It was a numbers game they claim," East Bay head coach Frank LaRosa said of Tennessee. "The rug was pulled out from under him."

Ford has a 4.3 GPA. His OV to Rutgers is probably Jan 30th.
 
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vmgsf

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It is good to see his high school coach tell it exactly like it is with SOME football programs. I do not think this will help Tennessee recruit in Florida.
 

Legacy

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With National Signing Day fast approaching, here are those schools/teams who currently have over twenty-five verbals and ranked in the top fifty for the Classs of 2015 (arranged by Rivals team ranking):

Alabama (1st) - 26
Tennessee (5th) - 28
Georgia (6th) - 26
South Carolina (14th) - 29
Mississippi State (16th) - 27
Wisconsin (26th) - 26
Washington St (29th) - 26
Arizona (37th) - 26
 

Irish YJ

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With National Signing Day fast approaching, here are those schools/teams who currently have over twenty-five verbals and ranked in the top fifty for the Classs of 2015 (arranged by Rivals team ranking):

Alabama (1st) - 26
Tennessee (5th) - 28
Georgia (6th) - 26
South Carolina (14th) - 29
Mississippi State (16th) - 27
Wisconsin (26th) - 26
Washington St (29th) - 26
Arizona (37th) - 26

Just looked at Tenn's class on Rivals. They have 10 of 28 listed as signed NLI/EEs, so really only 18 count for 2015. That means they have 7 more they can go after lol.
 

Bishop2b5

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Just looked at Tenn's class on Rivals. They have 10 of 28 listed as signed NLI/EEs, so really only 18 count for 2015. That means they have 7 more they can go after lol.

Not necessarily. Depends on how many spots they have left from last year's class. EE's don't automatically count towards the previous year's class. You can only count them towards the previous year's class if you have scholarships left over from last year. Otherwise, they count towards your current class.
 

irishknight35

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Not necessarily. Depends on how many spots they have left from last year's class. EE's don't automatically count towards the previous year's class. You can only count them towards the previous year's class if you have scholarships left over from last year. Otherwise, they count towards your current class.

And iirc Tennessee had an absolutely silly number of signees last year in the 30+ range.

31 signees according to rivals in the 2014 class for the Vols.
 
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