I lean towards 2. There's enough in there with the texts and the guy going to the bathroom with the footballs that make me think something probably occured. The intial reports made it seem like every football was deflated 2+ PSI, but I'd guess the guy deflated about 3-5 of them by .5 PSI based on the halftime measurements.
At the same time, this "deflator" doesn't travel to away games, hadn't snuck into the bathroom in other home games (they handed over all security videos), and there were texts showing that the balls were at 16 PSI for week 6 so I don't believe this was an every week occurence by any means. The texts show that Brady was very very upset after the week 6 game with the overinflated balls, so maybe from then on they started deflating them for home games? I duno. It doesn't make any sense for them to try this out for the first time at the AFC Champ game, but, at the same time, this guy wasn't taking the footballs into the bathroom before any other home games and I'm just assuming no one would be dumb enough to use a needle on the sideline. So I'm not really sure when they would have been deflated. I'm sure Brady (and other QBs since Rodgers said he does) are handing in underinflated or overinflated balls pre-game every week hoping they don't get fixed by the refs.
My main issue is that the NFL has never cared about this issue (giving a warning to the Vikings and Panthers when they were heating up balls on the sideline this season), and clearly knew nothing about PSI prior to this. Any ref who has spoken since this incident has said this is not an issue they take serioulsy or even know how to deal with. I also think this is such a miniscule issue that is blown out of proportion because it the Patriots (more so by media and other fans) and the Goodell/Kraft relationship that the NFL felt compelled to come down hard on them. I just think every team is doing some sort of cheating, and while it's not right, it doesn't deserve anything more than a fine and a loss of a late pick. The Falcons pumped in crowd noise the last two seasons which I think is worse than a deflated football and they got a slap on the wrist.