[NFL] vBook: Colts vs Patriots (Deflategate)

[wizards8507]

BECAUSE HE WORKED CLOSELY WITH THESE PEOPLE FOR LIKE 30 YEARS

Aaron Rodgers' comments and this most recent report confirm that the process is not followed to the letter every time. Further, playoff crews are not the teams that work together all season long so the rapport built over the season is not there.

 

[gkIrish]

Aaron Rodgers' comments and this most recent report confirm that the process is not followed to the letter every time. Further, playoff crews are not the teams that work together all season long so the rapport built over the season is not there.

I'm absolutely not saying he is correct. I'm saying I'm going to take him for his word until I hear otherwise because he has the qualifications and connections to be a credible source.

 

[FrankMA]

I still haven't heard one scientific justification for why the Colts' balls did not deflate. Even if they deflated from 13.5 to 12.5 (1 psi) it still doesn't jive with the fact that the Patriots balls deflated by more than 1psi, and closer to 2 by most accounts I've read.

If I see a report that says both the Colts and Patriots balls deflated by 1 psi then I have nothing further to say.

Maybe the Colts balls were over inflated to begin with and the cold air brought them within the range of being legal. Maybe Luck likes his balls over inflated like Rodgers. It was the Colts who cheated!

 

[gkIrish]

Maybe the Colts balls were over inflated to begin with and the cold air brought them within the range of being legal. Maybe Luck likes his balls over inflated like Rodgers. It was the Colts who cheated!

Thanks for your contribution Frank from Massachusetts.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I still haven't heard one scientific justification for why the Colts' balls did not deflate. Even if they deflated from 13.5 to 12.5 (1 psi) it still doesn't jive with the fact that the Patriots balls deflated by more than 1psi, and closer to 2 by most accounts I've read.

If I see a report that says both the Colts and Patriots balls deflated by 1 psi then I have nothing further to say.

We all know it's because the Pats had the ball a lot more so theirs spent more time on the field, in the air, and in use.

 

[Rhode Irish]

This is getting uglier and uglier. I'm nearly convinced they've been doing this for a long time.

Deflated: the Statistically Impossible Patriots Fumble Record | PJ Lifestyle

Why Those Statistics About The Patriots' Fumbles Are Mostly Junk

 

[gkIrish]

Why Those Statistics About The Patriots' Fumbles Are Mostly Junk

Hmmm so you want me to read a Deadspin article. I'll bite.

The only compelling argument to me was the Peyton Manning comparison about how quickly the QBs get rid of the ball.

But the rest was mumbo jumbo that the authors accused the SharpFootballAnalysis.com of doing. Aka morphing stats to tell the story you want it to tell. For example they try to say that because the Vikings had less road fumbles than Patriots home fumbles this season somehow invalidates the entire 7 year analysis. Yet, the Vikings are 27th in plays per game while the Patriots are 5th. And that's just this season.

 

[irishfan]

Hmmm so you want me to read a Deadspin article. I'll bite.

The only compelling argument to me was the Peyton Manning comparison about how quickly the QBs get rid of the ball.

But the rest was mumbo jumbo that the authors accused the SharpFootballAnalysis.com of doing. Aka morphing stats to tell the story you want it to tell. For example they try to say that because the Vikings had less road fumbles than Patriots home fumbles this season somehow invalidates the entire 7 year analysis. Yet, the Vikings are 27th in plays per game while the Patriots are 5th. And that's just this season.

I read a different article (gotta find it) that pretty much said if you take out special teams fumbles, the numbers go down to Pats fumbling at just a 23% less rate? Again, I have to find this article, but I've seen a lot of numbers posted saying that the original article seemed to cherry-pick some numbers.

 

[irishfan]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-ot...eunite-with-bill-belichick-233502306-nfl.html

Now, this I do believe. But, anyone else could have claimed him.

 

[gkIrish]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-ot...eunite-with-bill-belichick-233502306-nfl.html

Now, this I do believe. But, anyone else could have claimed him.

The Patriots tampering? I don't believe that.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Hmmm so you want me to read a Deadspin article. I'll bite.

The only compelling argument to me was the Peyton Manning comparison about how quickly the QBs get rid of the ball.

But the rest was mumbo jumbo that the authors accused the SharpFootballAnalysis.com of doing. Aka morphing stats to tell the story you want it to tell. For example they try to say that because the Vikings had less road fumbles than Patriots home fumbles this season somehow invalidates the entire 7 year analysis. Yet, the Vikings are 27th in plays per game while the Patriots are 5th. And that's just this season.

It wasn't actually a deadspin article (not by a staff writer), they just hosted it.

The point about fumbles in the kicking game (which use different balls) is also a good point even if you don't want to dig into a lot of the statistical weeds there. The biggest thing to me that wasn't even mentioned in the article is that BJGE accounted for so many of the Patriots carries during that time and the reason he was in the league at all was solely because he was fumble proof. Other backs for the Patriots have fumbles as much, if not more than, the average back in the league. Just look at Stevan Ridley. Was he using different balls? I guess you could argue that BJGE fumbled some when got to Cincy, but by that time all the thread was off his tires and he was on his way out of the league (which is a big part of why the Pats didn't retain him).

 

[irishfan]

Hmmm so you want me to read a Deadspin article. I'll bite.

The only compelling argument to me was the Peyton Manning comparison about how quickly the QBs get rid of the ball.

But the rest was mumbo jumbo that the authors accused the SharpFootballAnalysis.com of doing. Aka morphing stats to tell the story you want it to tell. For example they try to say that because the Vikings had less road fumbles than Patriots home fumbles this season somehow invalidates the entire 7 year analysis. Yet, the Vikings are 27th in plays per game while the Patriots are 5th. And that's just this season.

Fumbling the Data: The Truth About the Patriots Fumble Rate - Football Central

 

[wizards8507]

NFL investigator seeks contact with Columbia University physics department over Deflategate probe - ESPN Boston

"Just to confirm our call, we represent the N.F.L. in connection with the investigation into the footballs used during the A.F.C. championship game and would like to discuss engaging a professor of physics to consult on matters relating to gas physics and environmental impacts on inflated footballs," Reisner said. "Please let me know whether there is a Columbia professor who may be interested in and appropriate for this assignment."

 

[ab2cmiller]

DeflateGate how-to: We soften 12 balls in 40 seconds (VIDEO) - NY Daily News

 

[Rhode Irish]

So dumb for so many reasons

 

[gkIrish]

So dumb for so many reasons

like?

 

[Rhode Irish]

like?

Like they didn't measure the actual PSI of footballs which is the whole point of this and the balls were in a satchel that is open and not in a bag. Just those two things make the hole thing worthless, but there are other smaller issues as well, such as that the guy did not simulate the exact circumstances by carrying twice as many footballs, etc. The biggest issue is that this guy was going as fast as he possibly could in order to prove a point, whereas the ball boy wouldn't be "racing" in that way. He could have just as easily taken three minutes as 90 seconds. And finally, even if you could prove that it is possible, you can never prove that it actually happened, so this whole exercise is just sensationalist nonsense.

I've said before, if the NFL comes up with a smoking gun, the Patriots are idiots. If they don't, the NFL are idiots. I don't think there is any chance they come up with a smoking gun. If this is as close as they get, they are a joke.

 

[gkIrish]

Like they didn't measure the actual PSI of footballs which is the whole point

I think the point was that they measured the amount of time you need to deflate the ball by 2 psi and did an approximation

of this and the balls were in a satchel that is open and not in a bag.

You do know what a ball bag looks like? It's one of those bag where you can tighten up the opening with a draw string but otherwise it opens up just like that "satchel" did.

Just those two things make the hole thing worthless, but there are other smaller issues as well, such as that the guy did not simulate the exact circumstances by carrying twice as many footballs, etc. The biggest issue is that this guy was going as fast as he possibly could in order to prove a point, whereas the ball boy wouldn't be "racing" in that way. He could have just as easily taken three minutes as 90 seconds. And finally, even if you could prove that it is possible, you can never prove that it actually happened, so this whole exercise is just sensationalist nonsense.

Again missing the point. If the Patriots were indeed trying to cheat, this kid would try to make this look like a quick piss on the way to the field. He wouldn't be taking a three minute metaphoric dump. He would definitely try and move as fast as possible. This theory is further supported by the fact that 1 of the balls was overlooked. By the way, a point which basically destroys any scientific theory. Not only were the Colts balls unaffected, but 1 of the Patriots balls was, too.

Obviously this video wasn't a perfect simulation but the dude successfully inserted a pin into a football, deflated some air, and went in and out of the bathroom in about a minute (I'm adding 20 seconds that they didn't count of his movement to the stall). That's a full 30 seconds of leeway. Perhaps that extra 30 seconds accounts for the time it takes to measure exactly 2 psi or whatever. Or maybe he just locked the door behind him and did it on the floor without going to a stall.

Basically, this just PROVES that it's definitely not IMPOSSIBLE for someone to do this in 90 seconds as some of you are trying to say.

 

[phork]

So the real question is were those balls disinfected before Brady handled them? I think I see cold or flu virus bringing Brady down!

And I have my answer....

Tom Brady of New England Patriots has a cold, says he is 'not worried about it' - ESPN Boston

 

[pkt77242]

I think the point was that they measured the amount of time you need to deflate the ball by 2 psi and did an approximation



You do know what a ball bag looks like? It's one of those bag where you can tighten up the opening with a draw string but otherwise it opens up just like that "satchel" did.



Again missing the point. If the Patriots were indeed trying to cheat, this kid would try to make this look like a quick piss on the way to the field. He wouldn't be taking a three minute metaphoric dump. He would definitely try and move as fast as possible. This theory is further supported by the fact that 1 of the balls was overlooked. By the way, a point which basically destroys any scientific theory. Not only were the Colts balls unaffected, but 1 of the Patriots balls was, too.

Obviously this video wasn't a perfect simulation but the dude successfully inserted a pin into a football, deflated some air, and went in and out of the bathroom in about a minute (I'm adding 20 seconds that they didn't count of his movement to the stall). That's a full 30 seconds of leeway. Perhaps that extra 30 seconds accounts for the time it takes to measure exactly 2 psi or whatever. Or maybe he just locked the door behind him and did it on the floor without going to a stall.

Basically, this just PROVES that it's definitely not IMPOSSIBLE for someone to do this in 90 seconds as some of you are trying to say.

First, why would he be in a hurry? They didn't know that the league was investigating them, so there would be no reason for undue haste. He easily could have taken 3 minutes to do it (obviously he couldn't take a half hour or something absurd) as he had no reason to believe that anyone gave a shit how long he was in the bathroom.

The fact that one ball was overlooked might support your theory it maybe it was a ball that wasn't used at all and sat at the bottom of the bag (thus not being exposed to the elements as well as not possibly losing air from use). Again, you are using it as proof that he did it when at best it is neutral. Also if you think he could have done it in 60 seconds (and yet was in there for 90) then why did he miss a ball? 30 seconds is plenty of time to make sure that he got it right.

I am not a Pats fan but everyone jumping all over this as if it is proof it is laughable. Is it possible that the Pats did something to the balls? Yes. Is it possible that they didn't? Yes. Is anything that has been leaked yet anywhere close to proof? Hell No.

 

[NDRock]

You do know what a ball bag looks like? It's one of those bag where you can tighten By the way, a point which basically destroys any scientific theory. Not only were the Colts balls unaffected, but 1 of the Patriots balls was, too.

The Pats filled their balls with hot air (from an air compressor at 200+ degrees) a few minutes before the refs check the balls. Those balls lose more psi than a ball filled at room temperature (which the Colts did). Please explain how you destroy that easy to do "scientific theory".

 

[wizards8507]

The Pats filled their balls with hot air (from an air compressor at 200+ degrees) a few minutes before the refs check the balls. Those balls lose more psi than a ball filled at room temperature (which the Colts did). Please explain how you destroy that easy to do "scientific theory".

But Bill Nye said...

 

[ab2cmiller]

The Pats filled their balls with hot air (from an air compressor at 200+ degrees) a few minutes before the refs check the balls. Those balls lose more psi than a ball filled at room temperature (which the Colts did). Please explain how you destroy that easy to do "scientific theory".

Yeah, and they filled one with air from a hand pump just for giggles.

 

[wizards8507]

Yeah, and they filled one with air from a hand pump just for giggles.

I can't find it, but a recent story reports that all 12 of the Patriots' balls were deflated, but that the 12th just wasn't in that "2 PSI less" range. It's possible that the 12th sat in the bottom of the bag and wasn't used, fallen on, tackled on, etc.

Mods, can we turn the video on this page off of "auto play"?

 

[Rhode Irish]

I am not a Pats fan but everyone jumping all over this as if it is proof it is laughable. Is it possible that the Pats did something to the balls? Yes. Is it possible that they didn't? Yes. Is anything that has been leaked yet anywhere close to proof? Hell No.

This is the whole thing to me. Let's just wait and see what the confirmed evidence says when they release the report. If this foray into the boy's room is in fact the extent of the evidence, there will never be an answer accepted by everyone. If they get the Pats dead to rights, their defiance will be punished as much as the actual "crime" of letting air out of the balls. If not, they will probably issue a fine and people will debate it to the end of time.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

538's Neil Paine just published an article titled "Your Guide to Deflate-gate/ Ballghazi-related Statistical Analyses". Apparently Sharp isn't much of a statistician.

 

[NDRock]

Yeah, and they filled one with air from a hand pump just for giggles.

Maybe, maybe not but it's "not IMPOSSIBLE" as others have alluded.

 

[gkIrish]

Just for fun let's recap the points made by Patriots fans in this thread

The Patriots DO NOT manage the footballs during the game, people. It's not like college. There's no way they could have deflated the balls since the balls are in the possession of the NFL people during the whole game after having been inspected by the officials.

Even if they intentionally did it (which I don't believe they did--see my other posts on that), all of this presupposes that a deflated ball is advantageous.

^Brady likes his balls at the absolute minimum allowable amount

Again, why is everyone flat-out ignoring SCIENTIFIC FACT? A drop from 70F to 40F results in a drop of 2 PSI. P1/P2 = T1/T2 and all that crap.

^Only to 11/12 Patriots balls

The Colts are butthurt whiny bitches who didn't like getting their asses handed to them. Just because no one has complained about weather deflating balls before doesn't mean that weather has never deflated a ball.

Teams are allowed to reinflate the balls over the course of the game.

Let's see the outrage the next time LeBron takes too many steps before a layup

This stupid controversy is over. Pats, as usual, have perfect gameplan. Bill passes it off to Brady (which is actually correct if you know anything about football - the QB cares about the ball, not the HC), Brady will come out at 4pm with his "aw shucks" and winning smile, say he likes to make the balls soft but never thought about the PSI number and they've never said anything to him about it before. The Pats will pay a 25k fine, the media will look like jackasses, and we are on to Seattle. Pats win again. Masterful.

The idea that the amount of air in the ball is effecting any game results is absurd. It is a matter of comfort, not competitive advantage.

Everyone does it

Also possible that the refs never checked them prior to the start of the game like they said they did.

If the Patriots really do fumble less than other teams, I think it would more likely relate to personnel than the football.

^Same personnel fumble at least 23% more when they go to another team

You can call it what you want, but I honestly believe there is absolutely zero impact. And in fact, I think it is intellectually dishonest for people who have played the game to claim otherwise. I think it is shameful and petty opportunism to try to explain away personal failure and frustration related to the Patriots

Considering that no less than two thirds of all people I've ever met seem to be at least somewhat mentally impaired, I'm OK with that.

^Lives in New England

Anyone who watches that and still believes the Patriots purposely deflated the balls (i.e. cheated) after they were inspected and improved by the NFL is a cynical asshole who lives a miserable existence and most likely has an ax to grind against the Patriots, Bill Belichick and/or Tom Brady. To those people I say Go **** Yourself.

 

[gkIrish]

....cont.

I have to say, all I care about here is that they can't prove anything.

That would be 7.5 seconds per football to deflate 12. No way.

^Wrong

If mastermind BB was telling the ball boy to deflate the footballs on his way to the field, don't you think he would have directed him to a bathroom without video surveillance?

Be real guys. In a bathroom? With a floor that is unlikely to be perfectly flat? With a bag of 12 footballs. Go fill a bag with 12 footballs and dump them out in a public restroom some place, while also hauling around a second bag also full of 12 footballs. It'll take you 90 seconds just to gather them up after they finish rolling all over the place, let alone to do the actual deflating.

Why would a retired referee have ANY knowledge of the situation?

Maybe the Colts balls were over inflated to begin with and the cold air brought them within the range of being legal. Maybe Luck likes his balls over inflated like Rodgers. It was the Colts who cheated!

It's possible that the 12th sat in the bottom of the bag

 

[Irish Insanity]

The Pats filled their balls with hot air (from an air compressor at 200+ degrees) a few minutes before the refs check the balls. Those balls lose more psi than a ball filled at room temperature (which the Colts did). Please explain how you destroy that easy to do "scientific theory".

Why would they run a heated air compressor to fill the footballs. Typical air from a compressor is at room temp.