ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[Blaise]

But those losses aren't the same. LSU had like 184 total yards and gave up 450.

We outgained Clemson by 148 yards and gave up 4 fumbles. There's no way the committee will look at those losses to the 2 best teams and say they're the same. And with beating Stanford, we'll have the 'best win' between us and LSU.

Their win over Florida is better... At end of year.. Florida will be higher in the rankings... Florida could have two losses, LSU and Bama.. They will get love at end of season... End in top 8 or 9 IMO

 

[ulukinatme]

LSU can still win the SEC, and if they do they'll be in the playoff for sure. Same goes for Florida, although I don't like their chances against 'Bama if 'Bama shows up like they did on Saturday. My money is still on the Tide to win the SEC and be the SEC playoff rep.

 

[Blaise]

LSU can still win the SEC, and if they do they'll be in the playoff for sure. Same goes for Florida, although I don't like their chances against 'Bama if 'Bama shows up like they did on Saturday. My money is still on the Tide to win the SEC and be the SEC playoff rep.

I don't think LSU has to win the SEC to make the playoffs... As long as the SEC winner (Bama) makes the playoff, I think LSU can be there with one loss... What I am thankful for is they will be 10-1, and not have that extra game to impress voters... Miss and A &M losing hurts them too.. Makes those wins at end of the year less impressive...

 

[gkIrish]

But those losses aren't the same. LSU had like 184 total yards and gave up 450.

We outgained Clemson by 148 yards and gave up 4 fumbles. There's no way the committee will look at those losses to the 2 best teams and say they're the same. And with beating Stanford, we'll have the 'best win' between us and LSU.

Since when did yards gained become the measure of how good a team is? You're not the only that says that a lot. To me, turnovers, special teams, and other things that aren't measured by yards gained are equally relevant. Some teams get penalized a lot and gain more yards as a result. Doesn't mean they are a better team.

 

[koonja]

Since when did yards gained become the measure of how good a team is? You're not the only that says that a lot. To me, turnovers, special teams, and other things that aren't measured by yards gained are equally relevant. Some teams get penalized a lot and gain more yards as a result. Doesn't mean they are a better team.

When you compare 2 1-loss teams and the wins are all equal (let's just say they are), you have to break it down to 'how bad was that loss/how close were they to winning' to figure out who's the more competitive team. At least IMO you do. IDK how else you look at that if all else is equal.

 

[ulukinatme]

I don't think LSU has to win the SEC to make the playoffs... As long as the SEC winner (Bama) makes the playoff, I think LSU can be there with one loss... What I am thankful for is they will be 10-1, and not have that extra game to impress voters... Miss and A &M losing hurts them too.. Makes those wins at end of the year less impressive...

I hope that two teams from the same conference don't end up getting in, but LSU certainly is still in the thick of it with 1 loss, I'm agreeing with you there. I would hope we'd beat out LSU for a spot if we're 11-1 and our quality opponents keep winning.

 

[gkIrish]

When you compare 2 1-loss teams and the wins are all equal (let's just say they are), you have to break it down to 'how bad was that loss/how close were they to winning' to figure out who's the more competitive team. At least IMO you do. IDK how else you look at that if all else is equal.

You are also assuming Clemson = Bama. I don't think many people would pick Clemson to beat Bama on a neutral field. So LSU may have been outgained and lost by a bigger margin, but they also played a better team.

 

[Blaise]

I hope that two teams from the same conference don't end up getting in, but LSU certainly is still in the thick of it with 1 loss, I'm agreeing with you there. I would hope we'd beat out LSU for a spot if we're 11-1 and our quality opponents keep winning.

I agree... It will be interesting to see where LSU is ranked tomorrow.. that will be telling...

 

[koonja]

You are also assuming Clemson = Bama. I don't think many people would pick Clemson to beat Bama on a neutral field. So LSU may have been outgained and lost by a bigger margin, but they also played a better team.

Mayne not but the Commutte at least views clemson as equal to Bama and that likely doesn't changet assuming clemson wins out.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

You are also assuming Clemson = Bama. I don't think many people would pick Clemson to beat Bama on a neutral field. So LSU may have been outgained and lost by a bigger margin, but they also played a better team.

But the committee is tasked with ranking teams by who is best. It would be extremely duplicitous for them to rank Clemson above Alabama and, when evaluating ND and LSU, conclude Alabama is a better loss.

 

[Blaise]

But the committee is tasked with ranking teams by who is best. It would be extremely duplicitous for them to rank Clemson above Alabama and, when evaluating ND and LSU, conclude Alabama is a better loss.

If Bama wins out, It would include the win this week to LSU, and Florida in the title game.. Not shocking to see them pass Clemson IMO... Clemson really is rooting for UNC to run table and get some love so when they beat them in the ACC title game, it will be more impressive

 

[Irish Insanity]

My worry these next 2 games for us is that our schedule is soft. Meanwhile OU, TCU, Baylor, and OK St all play each other.

 

[phork]

But those losses aren't the same. LSU had like 184 total yards and gave up 450.

We outgained Clemson by 148 yards and gave up 4 fumbles. There's no way the committee will look at those losses to the 2 best teams and say they're the same. And with beating Stanford, we'll have the 'best win' between us and LSU.

Why not? That was their excuse for Alabama hanging around the top10 after their beat down by Ole Miss. "But but but but but... they had 5 turn overs!"

And I would hope they take that into account. Did LSU have a bad game, or perhaps they drove to the red zone and lost the ball? Did Bama just dominate them? There is truth in statistics.

 

[gkIrish]

But the committee is tasked with ranking teams by who is best. It would be extremely duplicitous for them to rank Clemson above Alabama and, when evaluating ND and LSU, conclude Alabama is a better loss.

I would agree with you if the rankings were based 100% on the eye test. But they aren't. The committee could very well rank Clemson #1 based on resume + eye test but conclude that LSU's loss to Bama is equal to ND's loss to Clemson based on eye test.

Don't be surprised at all if LSU only drops to 5 or 6 in the new rankings. Their win over Florida is still easily better than any of our wins and better than most of the teams in the top 10.

 

[gkIrish]

I'm extremely worried that a Stanford loss to Oregon or Cal could knock us out of the playoffs. I don't think a close loss to Clemson and a bunch of pretty good wins is going to be enough. We won't have a single win over a top 15 team if Stanford loses...

 

[BobbyMac]

But the committee is tasked with ranking teams by who is best. It would be extremely duplicitous for them to rank Clemson above Alabama and, when evaluating ND and LSU, conclude Alabama is a better loss.

Pops, this is what I've been arguing all along.

If Clemson is #1 then ND trumps all other losses as it was on the road and came down to the last play. The only variable that could overcome that is the importance the committee is placing on a conference championship game win.

 

[ulukinatme]

I'm still confidant that Clemson will be in, SEC champ is in, B1G champ is in, and we get in after a win against Stanford and the Big 12 all cannibalize each other for 1 loss. I don't see any other team getting ahead of us, unless they send two teams from the same conference in.

 

[tussin]

I'm still confidant that Clemson will be in, SEC champ is in, B1G champ is in, and we get in after a win against Stanford and the Big 12 all cannibalize each other for 1 loss. I don't see any other team getting ahead of us, unless they send two teams from the same conference in.

Bama loses to MSU. Florida loses to FSU. Florida beats LSU in SEC championship. Who gets in?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'm extremely worried that a Stanford loss to Oregon or Cal could knock us out of the playoffs. I don't think a close loss to Clemson and a bunch of pretty good wins is going to be enough. We won't have a single win over a top 15 team if Stanford loses...

Pops, this is what I've been arguing all along.

If Clemson is #1 then ND trumps all other losses as it was on the road and came down to the last play. The only variable that could overcome that is the importance the committee is placing on a conference championship game win.

See GK's post above. People put too much stock in quality losses and forget about quality wins. If Stanford loses prior to ND, there goes ND's chance at getting a marquee win. Not that it would be a bad win...but it's not Bama over LSU, LSU over UF, etc. Without a conference championship game, ND will need a big win to end the season to help catapult them back into the top four. Stanford holds the golden ticket.

 

[gkIrish]

I'm still confidant that Clemson will be in, SEC champ is in, B1G champ is in, and we get in after a win against Stanford and the Big 12 all cannibalize each other for 1 loss. I don't see any other team getting ahead of us, unless they send two teams from the same conference in.

Do you think Oklahoma could jump us if they win out and Stanford loses to Cal or Oregon (or god forbid both)?

 

[ulukinatme]

Bama loses to MSU. Florida loses to FSU. Florida beats LSU in SEC championship. Who gets in?

Probably Florida I would imagine since they just have the loss to LSU in the regular season, which was close. Either way, I think we all expect an SEC team is going to get in, they will not be denied.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Do you think Oklahoma could jump us if they win out and Stanford loses to Cal or Oregon (or god forbid both)?

I think so, but both need to happen. SOS may not be better, but they'll have better wins, no?

 

[ACamp1900]

Do you think Oklahoma could jump us if they win out and Stanford loses to Cal or Oregon (or god forbid both)?

I don't.

 

[tussin]

Probably Florida I would imagine since they just have the loss to LSU in the regular season, which was close. Either way, I think we all expect an SEC team is going to get in, they will not be denied.

I don't know, I think there's a chance that they get shut out in that scenario. If MSU can pull an upset this week then I think there's a reasonable chance it might happen too.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

See GK's post above. People put too much stock in quality losses and forget about quality wins. If Stanford loses prior to ND, there goes ND's chance at getting a marquee win. Not that it would be a bad win...but it's not Bama over LSU, LSU over UF, etc. Without a conference championship game, ND will need a big win to end the season to help catapult them back into the top four. Stanford holds the golden ticket.

On the whole, I agree with this. I just don't see LSU as the real threat here. For one thing, I think the shine is going to come off their Florida win.

My guess is ND is on the outside in favor of a Big 12 team.

If it comes down to a contest of 1 win teams then everything hangs on Stanford's resume, IMO (though a one-loss Navy and a one-loss Temple meeting for the AAC championship would be pretty nice).

 

[ulukinatme]

Do you think Oklahoma could jump us if they win out and Stanford loses to Cal or Oregon (or god forbid both)?

Absolutely, I said as much last week I think. Oklahoma would have the best resume in the Big 12 if all possible Big 12 teams in the hunt have 1 loss (TCU, OK St, Oklahoma, and Baylor). Beating Ok St, TCU, and Baylor would be a heck of a November finish for the Sooners, and they've pretty much manhandled everyone they've played this year outside of that rivalry game with Texas. Aside from that head scratcher against Iowa State, Texas has been improving as a team since we met them in September.

While Oklahoma certainly could jump us, I don't think they will because I think there's a better chance of Stanford beating Cal and Oregon. There's also a chance Oklahoma drops another game, but I hope they help with the Big 12 cannibalization before that occurs.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Bama loses to MSU. Florida loses to FSU. Florida beats LSU in SEC championship. Who gets in?

No way Bama loses to MSU this late in the year. FSU will beat FL. Bama beat FL in the SEC championship. Sorry folks but FL isnt a worldbeater this year. Soft, soft schedule playing into their hands alone.

No way Baylor wins out with a TF QB

1) Clemson
2) OSU
3) Bama
4) ND

ND knocks Clemson. OSU beats Bama. OSU vs ND

 

[BobbyMac]

See GK's post above. People put too much stock in quality losses and forget about quality wins. If Stanford loses prior to ND, there goes ND's chance at getting a marquee win. Not that it would be a bad win...but it's not Bama over LSU, LSU over UF, etc. Without a conference championship game, ND will need a big win to end the season to help catapult them back into the top four. Stanford holds the golden ticket.

...and LSU loses to Arkansas, Ole Miss or A&M and there goes Bama's resume?

You want variables? I got variables.

 

[BobbyMac]

...and free up some cash and get to the casino because Auburn is beating Bama in the Iron Bowl.

 

[tussin]

No way Bama loses to MSU this late in the year. FSU will beat FL. Bama beat FL in the SEC championship. Sorry folks but FL isnt a worldbeater this year. Soft, soft schedule playing into their hands alone.

You say that so matter of fact. MSU has been underrated good all year and is catching Bama at the perfect time after the LSU game. I give them a 25% chance at pulling an upset.