ND Oversold on Kelly?

[irishff1014]

I don't want to start another thread so this might be the right place for it.

But does anyone think our completion % has anything to do with a offense struggling at times?

I am not trying to pick on Tommy at all. Only once has it been above 60% since Kelly came to ND.

 

[mgriff]

I have no idea what happened this season. I've mostly been away from the boards but our defense dropped off dramatically and our offense was obviously going to suffer without Golson. Still thought 10-2 was attainable. We lost games we should have won and I'd say I'm pretty disappointed overall.

Kelly has won wherever he's been but we want perennial Top Ten finishes. Maybe things conspired against us this year, but we need a really good season next year, and end it in a BCS bowl. Love Kelly, don't doubt him, but 8-4 isn't good enough with what we had coming back.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I don't want to start another thread so this might be the right place for it.

But does anyone think our completion % has anything to do with a offense struggling at times?

I am not trying to pick on Tommy at all. Only once has it been above 60% since Kelly came to ND.

I think it has more to do with a series of unfortunate events at QB. Crist turned out to be a wicked bust and two of those years involved freshman or sophomore QBs.

 

[Irishman77]

Kelly has squeezed every last oz of everything from those still standing.

It has been excruciating at times this year, but the worst is over.

Our future is bright and once the qb is back in place we will be playing for the title again.

Only box unchecked IMHO is get 85 guys on the roster . I hope we over sign every damn year.

 

[kmoose]

I don't want to start another thread so this might be the right place for it.

But does anyone think our completion % has anything to do with a offense struggling at times?

I am not trying to pick on Tommy at all. Only once has it been above 60% since Kelly came to ND.

I'm betting that Kelly's teams have not had great completion %s, over time. The reason that the new "good" for completion % is that teams have generally gone to a shorter passing game. Kelly likes to air the ball out. Longer pass plays are lower percentage plays, and usually result in a lower completion %. If a team is utilizing a short passing game, and only completing about 50-55% of their passes, then it would be indicative of an offense that is struggling. However, if they are throwing a lot of deep balls, then completion percentage becomes a less reliable indicator.

 

[irishff1014]

I'm betting that Kelly's teams have not had great completion %s, over time. The reason that the new "good" for completion % is that teams have generally gone to a shorter passing game. Kelly likes to air the ball out. Longer pass plays are lower percentage plays, and usually result in a lower completion %. If a team is utilizing a short passing game, and only completing about 50-55% of their passes, then it would be indicative of an offense that is struggling. However, if they are throwing a lot of deep balls, then completion percentage becomes a less reliable indicator.

Yea very true. We do take our fair share of longer passes. Good point.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Kelly has squeezed every last oz of everything from those still standing.

It has been excruciating at times this year, but the worst is over.

Our future is bright and once the qb is back in place we will be playing for the title again.

Only box unchecked IMHO is get 85 guys on the roster . I hope we over sign every damn year.

I think that is key going forward. I am interested to see our numbers after we offer our 5th year guys, and see if we can get as close to a full roster as possible.

 

[Grahambo]

I don't want to start another thread so this might be the right place for it.

But does anyone think our completion % has anything to do with a offense struggling at times?

I am not trying to pick on Tommy at all. Only once has it been above 60% since Kelly came to ND.

I would think having a back-up QB with a weak arm, who is a pure pocket passer trying to run a spread based offense has something to do with it. Then add in a freshman in EG and you're bound to run into some problems. If I remember correctly, the running game wasn't exactly stellar his first year or two and that definitely has a bearing on the passing game.

I have no idea what happened this season. I've mostly been away from the boards but our defense dropped off dramatically and our offense was obviously going to suffer without Golson. Still thought 10-2 was attainable. We lost games we should have won and I'd say I'm pretty disappointed overall.

Kelly has won wherever he's been but we want perennial Top Ten finishes. Maybe things conspired against us this year, but we need a really good season next year, and end it in a BCS bowl. Love Kelly, don't doubt him, but 8-4 isn't good enough with what we had coming back.

I've been thinking about the defense today and I wonder if the defense hasn't regressed so much as it had overachieved last year. I don't think the defense has been THAT bad this year considering the new puzzle pieces and injury depletions. Losing Springmann to start the year was just the start of bad breaks.

I'm betting that Kelly's teams have not had great completion %s, over time. The reason that the new "good" for completion % is that teams have generally gone to a shorter passing game. Kelly likes to air the ball out. Longer pass plays are lower percentage plays, and usually result in a lower completion %. If a team is utilizing a short passing game, and only completing about 50-55% of their passes, then it would be indicative of an offense that is struggling. However, if they are throwing a lot of deep balls, then completion percentage becomes a less reliable indicator.

I would add in that Rees is not a good deep ball passer and that has affected the numbers. Several times this year the WR blew past the DB only to have the ball under thrown.

 

[stlnd01]

I've been thinking about the defense today and I wonder if the defense hasn't regressed so much as it had overachieved last year. I don't think the defense has been THAT bad this year considering the new puzzle pieces and injury depletions. Losing Springmann to start the year was just the start of bad breaks.

You're right. A bad defense would have been torched by BYU and Stanford and ours wasn't. But we clearly weren't as good as last year.

One factor: I think we missed Zeke Motta far more than anyone anticipated. I've got to think Farley's tremendous regression stemmed, at least in part, from having to take over that "QB of the defense" role that Motta, as a veteran, filled quite well (also the guy hit like a truck, which Farley and Collinsworth, well, don't). Farley was too often late to the play and tentative when he got there and I've got to think at some level that's from overthinking it. Perhaps that's why Kelly/Diaco stayed with him so long, figuring he'd finally get over that mental hump. I'll be surprised if he's starting next year, though.

Also Grace's injury really hurt us. He was just starting to emerge as a leader in the middle of the defense when he went down. Fox played well in the back half of the year, but Grace is just more talented.

 

[Grahambo]

You're right. A bad defense would have been torched by BYU and Stanford and ours wasn't. But we clearly weren't as good as last year.

One factor: I think we missed Zeke Motta far more than anyone anticipated. I've got to think Farley's tremendous regression stemmed, at least in part, from having to take over that "QB of the defense" role that Motta, as a veteran, filled quite well (also the guy hit like a truck, which Farley and Collinsworth, well, don't). Farley was too often late to the play and tentative when he got there and I've got to think at some level that's from overthinking it. Perhaps that's why Kelly/Diaco stayed with him so long, figuring he'd finally get over that mental hump. I'll be surprised if he's starting next year, though.

Also Grace's injury really hurt us. He was just starting to emerge as a leader in the middle of the defense when he went down. Fox played well in the back half of the year, but Grace is just more talented.

Thinking about the 'QB of the Secondary' we go from Zibby to McCarthy to Harrison to Motta and nobody to really pass the torch to this year. I assume the stuck with Farley because of the experience but then again, Farley was starting yesterday because Hardy was disciplined.

Then you're asking Grace, Fox, Calabrese and Schmidt to replace one of the best college LB's in the history of the game. I've said it several times this season but those pre-snap reads are so key and so important and with losing the experience that Motta and Te'o provided, just was too much to overcome.

Tuitt, Nix, and Day played all season for a grand total of 23 snaps together and those statistics showed they dominated those 23 snaps.

All things considered, really wasn't that bad of a year. One truly bad loss (Pitt), several good wins (MSU, USC), and two games that they could have won with better ball protection (OU, UM).