Marcus Freeman Revisited

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ChunkyParrot

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allenm5333 said:
If you consider converting a 2 pt conversion as a 50/50 chance, the numbers say got for 2 down 8 after the td. Best case scenario: you convert and the next extra pt wins. If you miss the 2 pt, then the odds say you get it next time
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Sorry for nitpicking (or missing the SpOrTsMaTh joke) but the odds on your next try are still 50/50 because the two tries are independent events, much like how one coin flip doesn’t affect the next.
 
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jprue24

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GrangerIrish24 said:
Isnt this what Kelly did at Clemson in 15 and the media crucified him cause Kelly relied on the data?
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No. Kelly went for two down 12. Which I have always fully supported and still seems the smarter play to me. I don't know what the math says, though. Just vibes or whatever.

Down 11 or 12...eh, two TDs. Down 10, a td and a fg. I viewed it as a "playing to win" decision after a big play TD.

Clemson kicked a fg to make it 15 (instead of 14). This is why everyone ripped him.
 
IrishLax

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jprue24 said:
No. Kelly went for two down 12. Which I have always fully supported and still seems the smarter play to me. I don't know what the math says, though. Just vibes or whatever.

Down 11 or 12...eh, two TDs. Down 10, a td and a fg. I viewed it as a "playing to win" decision after a big play TD.

Clemson kicked a fg to make it 15 (instead of 14). This is why everyone ripped him.
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IIRC, Kelly made the right decision there. Where he blew it was the Northwestern game ('14?) where he made a clearly wrong decision that also ended up costing us the game at the end after other nonsense...
 
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jprue24

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IrishLax said:
IIRC, Kelly made the right decision there. Where he blew it was the Northwestern game ('14?) where he made a clearly wrong decision that also ended up costing us the game at the end after other nonsense...
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No argument from me, I just remember a lot of people seeing two missed 2pt conversions and a two point loss, doing quick math and thinking, "idiot". Thought ceased on the issue because of a "whatever, screw nd" attitude.
 
Katzenboyer

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jprue24 said:
No. Kelly went for two down 12. Which I have always fully supported and still seems the smarter play to me. I don't know what the math says, though. Just vibes or whatever.

Down 11 or 12...eh, two TDs. Down 10, a td and a fg. I viewed it as a "playing to win" decision after a big play TD.

Clemson kicked a fg to make it 15 (instead of 14). This is why everyone ripped him.
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The analytics said that this was the right call. If you're going to need two scores, the "odds" of winning are far better if a TD + FG gets you a tie, or a TD + a TD gets you a win. And the difference in the odds between "winning" with two TDs (plus the PATs) and "losing" based on two TDs (with one requiring a two-point attempt) were so negligible that two points made sense there.

I have no idea if I'm being at all clear, but Kelly going for two after the Prosise TD in the fourth quarter was not a mistake.
 
stlnd01

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The Athletic did their annual thing where they rank coaches by tier. Freeman in Tier 4 out of 8 (as is Elko) up two tiers from last year. For some of his closest comps in terms of experience, they have Dan Lanning in Tier 3, Venables in 5. BK alongside Luke Fickell in Tier 2.


(personally I think they're overrating some longtime guys who are just sort of there in Tier 3, but I suppose Bruce Feldman has to take care of his sources).
 
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jprue24

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Katzenboyer said:
The analytics said that this was the right call. If you're going to need two scores, the "odds" of winning are far better if a TD + FG gets you a tie, or a TD + a TD gets you a win. And the difference in the odds between "winning" with two TDs (plus the PATs) and "losing" based on two TDs (with one requiring a two-point attempt) were so negligible that two points made sense there.

I have no idea if I'm being at all clear, but Kelly going for two after the Prosise TD in the fourth quarter was not a mistake.
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I'm tracking.

tbf, there is something to be said for taking the points because a game in those conditions is going to have more out of the ordinary events. Like ND fumbling the 2nd half kick off and first play of the subsequent offensive drive.
 
MrNimbus

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Is leonard capable of throwing a football more than 15 yards? images (3).jpeg
Fuck this. It's Carr time.
 
CanadalovesND

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irishff1014 said:
This is unacceptable in any year but year 3 it’s totally unacceptable.
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While I agree, it’s a long season. Games like this will happen. We can’t think that this is Madden on easy mode with a 99OVR going up against a bottom feeder.

Time to make some adjustments during the half. They can win the game still but it’s going to be a slug fest.
 
irishff1014

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CanadalovesND said:
While I agree, it’s a long season. Games like this will happen. We can’t think that this is Madden on easy mode with a 99OVR going up against a bottom feeder.

Time to make some adjustments during the half. They can win the game still but it’s going to be a slug fest.
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If he loses this game he should be let go. End of story.

And I want Freeman to be the long time head coach with at statue at the entrance.
 
NDMatt91

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They’re going to lose, what? 2-3 more games at minimum this year? And the team is going to be even worse next year. I doubt that Freeman sees the 2026 season.
 
irishff1014

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NDMatt91 said:
They’re going to lose, what? 2-3 more games at minimum this year? And the team is going to be even worse next year. I doubt that Freeman sees the 2026 season.
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He shouldn’t see another game this year. He ain’t your coach AD. Can his ass
 
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NDRock

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We traded a guy who couldn’t win last week’s type of game for a guy that struggles to win these type of games.
 
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