Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2015

BGIF

Varsity Club
Messages
43,946
Reaction score
2,922
On the 10th Aniversary of Katrina, Tropical Storm Erika is tracking for the Florida Coast. Current estimates have landfall Southwest of Miami but the storm won't hit land until late Suday night/early Monday morning. Last night it was expected to be a category one. This morning meteorologists believe wind shear may keep the storm from strengthening to hurricane force ... Or not. Max winds of 60 mph, tropical storm, are now forecast.

National Hurricane Center
 
Last edited:

Irish YJ

Southsida
Messages
25,888
Reaction score
1,444
as long as they stay away from Hilton head the 3rd through the 11th, I'm happy.
 

BGIF

Varsity Club
Messages
43,946
Reaction score
2,922
as long as they stay away from Hilton head the 3rd through the 11th, I'm happy.


The current 72 hour Cone has the storm around Jacksonville, FL on Wednesday. You could be arriving at Hilton Head around the same time if Erika skirts up the coast. Lots of variables.
 

connor_in

Oh Yeeaah!!!
Messages
11,433
Reaction score
1,006
The current 72 hour Cone has the storm around Jacksonville, FL on Wednesday. You could be arriving at Hilton Head around the same time if Erika skirts up the coast. Lots of variables.

You leave Erika's skirt alone, ya pervert!
 

MNIrishman

Well-known member
Messages
2,532
Reaction score
481
Still better than having snow 1/4 of the year.

Never understood this attitude. Hurricanes flippin kill people. You can't go hurricane shoeing, hurricane skiing, or cross-country hurricaning. Unless you live in the UP, snow won't rise up and envelop your house. No one ever evacuates due to a snow storm. The snow evacuation route is from the kitchen where I make my hot chocolate to the fireplace.
 

Henges24

BUCKETHEAD
Messages
4,805
Reaction score
1,584
Never understood this attitude. Hurricanes flippin kill people. You can't go hurricane shoeing, hurricane skiing, or cross-country hurricaning. Unless you live in the UP, snow won't rise up and envelop your house. No one ever evacuates due to a snow storm. The snow evacuation route is from the kitchen where I make my hot chocolate to the fireplace.

I could go on a rant like that too, about snow. And snow/ice kill people. I don't know the stats but I could almost bet you that winter kills more people every year than your average hurricane season.
 

FLDomer

Polish Hammer
Messages
3,227
Reaction score
510
This is weak sauce! The local news is basically saying be prepared but Erika is likely to be week and just a tropical storm when/if it hits Florida. NOW the national news is making it out to be a big deal! HAHA The storm is now very disorganized and may not even make thru the wind sheers near the Bahamas. Saying that, my family is prepared and ready to roll!
 
C

Cackalacky

Guest
I don't think the death toll is the real story in either case. The real story is whether people are prepared enough to survive the prolonged cold or periods without heat versus the people who don't get out of Dodge for a few days and instead take their chances in the sweltering heat without food or water. Its my opinion that most people take heating and Air conditioning for granted. You really don't know what is like to have to deal with under prolonged circumstances. A few days without either an you quickly change your tune.

Cack's survival rules for weather:

Be prepared, Don't take risks, and when in doubt, GTFO.
 
Last edited:

MNIrishman

Well-known member
Messages
2,532
Reaction score
481
I could go on a rant like that too, about snow. And snow/ice kill people. I don't know the stats but I could almost bet you that winter kills more people every year than your average hurricane season.

Yes, you could rant about being wrong: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/hazstats/resources/weather_fatalities.pdf

Hurricane season is, on average, nearly four times as deadly as winter according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Heat-related deaths are also much more significant (numbers-wise) than cold-related deaths.

This is why I hate the "I don't know the numbers" arguments. You're afraid of cold weather so you paint it as some sort of boogie man without using anything whatsoever to justify that attitude. If you just said, "I prefer the inconvenience of occasional evacuation and/or rebuilding to the inconvenience of learning how to drive in various weather conditions," you'd be in the clear. But there are limited statistics to justify the safety of living in hurricane territory vs. the north.
 

Wingman Ray

Banned
Messages
1,578
Reaction score
110
I lived in Baton Rouge when Katrina hit. I remember right before it hit just how eerily silent things were. Being in BR, we didnt get hit like New Orleans and the MS coastline (who really, really got the shaft on national news attention. MS was really bad. NO was just much more attention city due to popularity) but we had some and what followed in having 100k people dropped on your city overnight was just crazy. And those werent the kind people you want in your city either. Crime went crazy. Couldnt get cell phones to work and gas lines were all the way down the street every day.

I cant say I have the true firsthand experiences that those living in NO had but I have pretty intimate experience with a bad hurricane. I can say this, what was on the news was NO WAY close to reality. Reality was much, much worse. It was definitely watered down (but what isnt with our media?).
 

BGIF

Varsity Club
Messages
43,946
Reaction score
2,922
"Erika degenerates into a low pressure trough"

"Erika degenerates into a low pressure trough"

NHC description not mine, connor.
 
Last edited:

Irish YJ

Southsida
Messages
25,888
Reaction score
1,444
Not wishing bad weather on anyone, but really really happy it's not headed up the Atlantic Coast.
 

NOLAIrish

May Contain 10% Ethanol
Messages
344
Reaction score
107
You're right, I was wrong...on the average. Hell of a skew from Katrina.

But you do understand that those stats do not include automobile deaths that were winter related, correct?

They also don't include hurricane-related deaths not directly attributable to the storm, which would make the number far higher. Stress-induced deaths, people on vents who died when the power went down and the generators were underwater, people too frail to survive evacuation, people who succumbed to the heat without power and the cold without power or gas, etc -- these aren't typically included in the counts.

I've ridden out some pretty nasty snowstorms in Indiana and in the Mountain West and tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma. Tornadoes are significantly more dangerous than hurricanes in the immediate area of destruction -- they're far more lethal and provide immeasurably less warning. Unless you're in a precarious living situation -- you don't have the resources to evacuate or you need power to survive -- snowstorms and hurricanes are probably roughly equally dangerous while they're ongoing. It's the aftermath that separates them.

After a Katrina-type hurricane, you may well not have a home anymore, and if you do, you likely won't have power for about a month. I moved out of a badly flooded house after Katrina and into one owned by a few friends that had only gotten minor flooding. We got our power back in late September, but any time there was even a light rain, it knocked out the entire grid for hours and sometimes days. Our gas worked, so we used the oven for heat most nights during that winter. Several neighbors had gotten water in their gas lines, so they would come sleep in our kitchen when the power went out. Very few stores were open until late winter -- most of our food came from trips to Baton Rouge or from the National Guard. Work was entirely devoted to cleanup for a solid 4-5 months. A good friend's husband died in the storm, so we spent October gutting his outpatient clinic while working in groups and armed because people with addictive disorders had gotten extremely desperate and taken to breaking in a few times a week (the clinic had never stocked opioids, but they didn't know any better and their dealers and local pharmacies were all out of commission). We lived under a curfew until probably December. People really started coming back around March, when the winter faded and the power really started working. I don't remember when we stopped seeing those awful blue tarps over everyone's roofs -- feels like maybe late the next summer. Some of the infrastructure issues it created will never be fixed -- weird quirks in the water systems, permanent relocations, etc. That's a Katrina or an Andrew. The only thing I can imagine really comparing would be a major earthquake.

A large category 1 or a medium-sized category 2 are more comparable to a 30-year blizzard. Small immediate threat to life. 3-4 days without power and a week or so of impassable roads. I'd probably take the hurricane, if I had to pick. A category 3-5 versus a snowstorm? Give me the snowflakes all day.
 

FLDomer

Polish Hammer
Messages
3,227
Reaction score
510
Tropical Storm Erika may have sights on South Florida - CNN.com


That doesn't mean Erika -- the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season -- will sputter out.

By the end of the week, forecast models predict that the storm will intensify. Erika is expected to reach hurricane status with 75 mph sustained winds as it approaches South Florida on Monday.

I love the intense Title of the article. "...sights on South Florida". My feelings about this, yaaaaawn! Its is just a lil extra we get anyway this time of the year. Meh
 

BGIF

Varsity Club
Messages
43,946
Reaction score
2,922
Here Comes Joaquin!

Here Comes Joaquin!

As of 8pm eastern off the Bahamas Joaquin's CURRENT 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center shows it tracking North along Longtitude 75W making landfall in the Outer Banks off Albermarle Sound around 2 pm Sunday then tracking NNW up the Chesapeake Bay.

Hurricane JOAQUIN

Various models call for Joaquin to strick NJ, NY, or head East into the mid-Atlantic.


As of now the impact on the ND @ Clemson game, Saturday night doesn't seem severe. Local weather reports for Saturday evening call for low 60's, occasional rain and drizzle, and winds around 7-12 mph. It supposed to rain every day between now and Gametime.

Clemson Evening Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for SC 29631


IF the storm stays centered on Longitude 75 W the eye of the storm should be over 400 miles East of Clemson. At 250 miles across the storm would still be about 225 miles East of Clemson.

IF Joaquin veers West or expands in size (Sandy was about 1000 miles in diameter) Clemson would be impacted. Game time is about 70 hours off.
 
Top