How many recruits has Kelly "missed" on?

[irishfan]

I wanted to start this in regards to the discussion of taking 3-star commits that has broken out in a few player threads. Kelly has had 3 full classes (2011, 2012, 2013) see the field for the Irish, and those classes contained 64 total players signed. 7 of those 64 have transferred, while 1 other (Carrico) has sustained injuries that have prevented him from receiving meaningful playing time. Of the now 56 total players that Kelly has signed (and have remained in school and healthy), 45 have received significant playing time or are in the projected 2-deep heading into 2014.

2011 (17)
GA 3, Brindza, Councell, Daniels, Farley, Golson, Grace, Hanratty, Hardy, Hegarty, Koyack, Martin, McDaniel, Niklas, Springmann, Tuitt, Ishaq


2012 (11)
Baratti, Brown, Daly, Day, Jones, Okwara, Prosise, Russell, Shumate, Stanley, Turner


2013 (17)
Bivin, Bryant, Butler, Elmer, Folston, Fuller, Hunter, Luke, McGlinchey, McGovern, Onwualu, Redfield, Robinson, Rochell, Jaylon, Smythe, Malik


Some of the people not included are guys like Deeb, Montelus, Mustaka who could very well develop into starters. In Kelly's first three classes, he has seen 45/56 (80.36%) of his recruits receive meaningful playing time or on the 2-deep heading into 2014. The staff probably has earned the benefit of the doubt in regards to picking up 3-stars.

 

[Jebediah Springfield]

Wouldn't focusing solely on how 3-star recruits have panned out be a better measure?

 

[irishog77]

I'd say you have to include the 7 transfers as misses too. I mean they're doing absolutely nothing to contribute to the team, after all, yet received a scholarship/roster spot.

Also, not sure saying "45/56 (80.36%) of his recruits receive meaningful playing time or on the 2-deep heading into 2014" is really much of an indicator of anything. We're talking about finite numbers here. Somebody has to play and be on the roster, and even be on the 2-deep. I suppose if all he recruited were 2 or 3 stars, you could also say that 100% of the 2-deep consists of 2 and 3 star talent.

And many of the players listed above weren't 3-stars. They were 4 or 5.

I think you may possibly be right in saying that, "The staff probably has earned the benefit of the doubt in regards to picking up 3-stars," but I don't think it's because of anything you included in the post.

 

[anarin]

Still waiting on that Ishaq guy.

 

[irishog77]

I was thinking about BK and recruiting earlier today (before I found about MDT), so this seems like a good place to share what I was thinking.

I realize every team isn't composed of only 4 and 5 star guys. Every team needs 3 star players....and some of them obviously become amazing talents. I was a little bummed about this past cycle's class. I felt there weren't any difference makers (I know, I know people will tell me they think ___ will be a difference maker), or at least that I didn't think any of the guys would definitely be. In my opinion, good coaches can win with 3* players, but in order to win a championship, those coaches need 5* players too-- difference makers. That was what made losing eddie vanderdoes so hard to swallow-- we knew he would be a difference maker. He was like Jaylon Smith or Teo, guys we knew (not just hoped COULD) be a difference maker. I think the same could maybe be said about Barnett.

And so far, I don't see any difference makers in this class. Obviously it's still early, and that can change. But as of today, no. After reading a couple things on IE about BK and staff and their approach to recruiting now, it seems like the staff is going after more guys who are local and/or perhaps less talented than others, but more of a "fit in the locker room," for lack of better phrase. And I think BK can do well and win a lot of games with guys like that...but I don't think he can win a championship with guys like that.

How many teams with DL (or any position group really) from the midwest have won a championship in the last 15-20 years? Osu, the year they played the greatest game they could possibly play, then were granted manna from heaven when a PI was called so late, Miami was already boarding their plane for their return flight back to Florida. That's pretty much it. The rest of the champions have had DL hailing from the south and California. DL play has been the greatest success of the dominance of the sec, usc, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Miami. Did they all win titles based solely on their DL? No way. More went into than that. But I also don't think it's a total coincidence that ND's best team and defense in a couple decades had DL starters from TX, FL, GA, and NC (including Shembo as a DL there).

Also, particularly after the success ND had in this last NFL draft, people are quick to point out how great BK is at getting and developing talent. I guess I only agree up to a point. In next year's draft (BK's first where he can truly say all the guys leaving were his guys), ND may only have a couple players drafted total, and probably none in the 1st or 2nd round (again-- obviously a long way to go until then).

This isn't a bash BK post, but I guess after this past signing day and up until now, I don't see all the amazing recruiting and developing BK has been given credit for time and time again on this site. I think BK has a long way to go before ND is truly contending for Natty's. I hope he can get there. Up until the past couple of months, I was pretty sure he could do it. Now, today? I honestly have to say I'm not so sure he can.

 

[GATTACA!]

Agree with you Hog. Fill recruiting classes up with 3* kids from the midwest and we will be Wisconsin before you know it. A solid team that win 7-10 games a year. Championships HELL NO. If this is as some around here have suggested, the base of the class that will be filled out with 5* player later, fantastic. If this is all we are coming away with in terms of quality, yikes.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I don't know where to ask this, so I'll ask it here.

Is a 3* player from a lesser talent rich state the same as a 3* player in a talent rich state?

 

[koonja]

I couldn't care less about stars as long as their film looks great and their offer lists back that.

Take Kolin Hill, for example. 3-star everywhere, but I'm as excited about him as any player in the 2014 class.

I can't speak for myself, but I don't think ND fans have a problem with 3-star players, as long as they can see why the staff offered by seeing that the player could be special based on his film + other offers.

 

[PANDFAN]

Bill King's show had Loy on yesterday.. Bill king-"it appears that the staff is settling instead of fighting this year" Loy said he really likes how the class is shaping up....basically says we are getting people the coaches REALLY like/fit and will have some big names to finish off the class...talks about soso, justin, jashon etc

 

[Irish Insanity]

And I'm not asking because of the recent less than enthusiastic reaction to a 3* commit. The same que at ion goes for 4* and 5*. I don't break down film or know the level of competition by state.

 

[PANDFAN]

I don't know where to ask this, so I'll ask it here.

Is a 3* player from a lesser talent rich state the same as a 3* player in a talent rich state?

the services don't seem to factor that into their rankings...it has more to do w/ exposure at camps and then film

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I don't know where to ask this, so I'll ask it here.

Is a 3* player from a lesser talent rich state the same as a 3* player in a talent rich state?

One of the old baseball truisms from the Moneyball era was that the great lakes area was the most underscouted region of the US for baseball talent. Basically, the areas which produce the most top talent are also the areas which have the highest failure rates from prospects when taken as a whole.

My takeaway is that players from less talent rich areas will tend to be underrated as a rule.

 

[irishfan]

Wouldn't focusing solely on how 3-star recruits have panned out be a better measure?

We've had so many guys get bumped up in rankings after committing to ND, it's tough to recall who was a 3-star when they were offered.

 

[IrishLion]

In terms of prospects under BK (according to Rivals):

Class of 2010, 13 three-star prospects
-BK tried to hold together/fill-out Chuck's final class
-Benefit of the doubt on these recruits IMO... coaching changes are always weird times for recruits, players, and programs in general,

-Contributors:
Daniel Smith
Austin Collinsworth
TOMMY REES
Bennett Jackson
Kona Schwenke

-No impact/transfer/injury:
Chris Badger
Justin Utupo
Lo Wood
Bruce Heggie
Tate Nichols
Spencer Boyd
Derrick Roback
Luke Massa



Class of 2011, again 13 three-star prospects
-BK's first full class, best return on the three-star guys IMO

-Contributors:
Nick Martin
Connor Hanratty
Everett Golson
Chase Hounshell
Matthias Farley
Jerret Grace
Cam McDaniel
Tony Springmann
Kyle Brindza

-No impact/transfer/injury:
Brad Carrico
Jalen Brown
Anthony Rabasa
Josh Atkinson



Class of 2012
-Super small class, high profile defections..... but what about the less heralded guys?

-Mark Harrell: TBD
-Justin Ferguson: Transfer
-Chris Brown: Heavy contribution
-John Turner: TBD



In closing, BK had it rough with the three-star guys from his first class. However, his first full class (2011) was tremendous. It included several players that will still be big time contributors as RS JRs this year. The class in 2012 only had four three-star guys, and three of them could still pan out, whereas one transferred. It's too early to make a judgement on the class of 2013 yet.

So in the three classes that have a good opportunity for evaluation, BK signed 30 prospects. 15 of them have been big time contributors. That number could go to 17, 18 or even 19 depending on Rabasa, Harrell and Turner. Even with transfers and injuries (and a couple that simply weren't good players), BK has done well with these types of prospects I think, despite the "success rate" being only around 50%. I think the impact that guys like Rees, Collinsworth, Jackson, Schwenke, Martin, Golson, Farley, McDaniel, and Brindza have had justifies the "risk" in taking lower-rated prospects. Without these guys "that are only three stars," ND would be in the shitter.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I was thinking about BK and recruiting earlier today (before I found about MDT), so this seems like a good place to share what I was thinking.

I realize every team isn't composed of only 4 and 5 star guys. Every team needs 3 star players....and some of them obviously become amazing talents. I was a little bummed about this past cycle's class. I felt there weren't any difference makers (I know, I know people will tell me they think ___ will be a difference maker), or at least that I didn't think any of the guys would definitely be. In my opinion, good coaches can win with 3* players, but in order to win a championship, those coaches need 5* players too-- difference makers. That was what made losing eddie vanderdoes so hard to swallow-- we knew he would be a difference maker. He was like Jaylon Smith or Teo, guys we knew (not just hoped COULD) be a difference maker. I think the same could maybe be said about Barnett.

And so far, I don't see any difference makers in this class. Obviously it's still early, and that can change. But as of today, no. After reading a couple things on IE about BK and staff and their approach to recruiting now, it seems like the staff is going after more guys who are local and/or perhaps less talented than others, but more of a "fit in the locker room," for lack of better phrase. And I think BK can do well and win a lot of games with guys like that...but I don't think he can win a championship with guys like that.

How many teams with DL (or any position group really) from the midwest have won a championship in the last 15-20 years? Osu, the year they played the greatest game they could possibly play, then were granted manna from heaven when a PI was called so late, Miami was already boarding their plane for their return flight back to Florida. That's pretty much it. The rest of the champions have had DL hailing from the south and California. DL play has been the greatest success of the dominance of the sec, usc, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Miami. Did they all win titles based solely on their DL? No way. More went into than that. But I also don't think it's a total coincidence that ND's best team and defense in a couple decades had DL starters from TX, FL, GA, and NC (including Shembo as a DL there).

Also, particularly after the success ND had in this last NFL draft, people are quick to point out how great BK is at getting and developing talent. I guess I only agree up to a point. In next year's draft (BK's first where he can truly say all the guys leaving were his guys), ND may only have a couple players drafted total, and probably none in the 1st or 2nd round (again-- obviously a long way to go until then).

This isn't a bash BK post, but I guess after this past signing day and up until now, I don't see all the amazing recruiting and developing BK has been given credit for time and time again on this site. I think BK has a long way to go before ND is truly contending for Natty's. I hope he can get there. Up until the past couple of months, I was pretty sure he could do it. Now, today? I honestly have to say I'm not so sure he can.

Well, ND takes fewer 3 star recruits than basically everyone.

This is the number of teams with solid recruiting* who had fewer 3 stars in their class by my count per 247 (their mobile site sucks so I'm not sure if this is composite or not):

2014: 1 (Alabama)
2013: 1 (USC)
2012: 2 (USC & FSU)
2011: 13 by my count (Kelly's first year)

*I'm trying to eliminate teams who fill up on 2 star guys and struggle to get three star guys. Basically, I tried to look at the top 40 or so recruiting classes.

 

[HoosierIrish]

Well, ND takes fewer 3 star recruits than basically everyone.

This is the number of teams with solid recruiting* who had fewer 3 stars in their class by my count per 247 (their mobile site sucks so I'm not sure if this is composite or not):

2014: 1 (Alabama)
2013: 1 (USC)
2012: 2 (USC & FSU)
2011: 13 by my count (Kelly's first year)

*I'm trying to eliminate teams who fill up on 2 star guys and struggle to get three star guys. Basically, I tried to look at the top 40 or so recruiting classes.

I always notice that too, and we have one of the highest average rating as well. At the same time though, we don't over recruit. These teams will take chances on 2 and 3 star players and force them out if they don't pan out; players that we keep all four years.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I always notice that too, and we have one of the highest average rating as well. At the same time though, we don't over recruit. These teams will take chances on 2 and 3 star players and force them out if they don't pan out; players that we keep all four years.

I agree on that point but the oversigning phenomenon is mostly an SEC affliction. It's not as though all the other BCS conference schools are taking 100+ every four years.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I don't know where to ask this, so I'll ask it here.

Is a 3* player from a lesser talent rich state the same as a 3* player in a talent rich state?

I've always held the notion that a 3 star from Florida is comparable to a 4 star from a Midwestern state, but that notion is based on opinion and not anything scientific.

QBs are the biggest benefactor IMO of location. I truly think Kiel would have been a 4 star QB if he was coming out of TX or CA, and Golson a 4 star if he was coming out of IN or IL. Once again, that's an opinion.

 

[HoosierIrish]

I'm not very excited about this class either. I hate saying that and I shouldn't. These are 17-18 year old kids committed to our team most likely reading these message boards and i wish people would realize that sometimes before posting. However, I don't like filling up with 3 star guys before the season even starts.

I know, I know... if the player is a 4 or 5 star we get all giddy about stars, if not then people don't look at stars they look at offer lists. If it isn't a great offer list then its " well I trust the staff over a recruiting site". I always roll my eyes when i see this stuff(even though I'm glad it's said for the benefit of our commits reading the boards). I'm sure Purdue fans use that excuse all the time too.

It sucks that it's more fun to speculate about what the 2016 class could be. I just wish we would hold off on some of these kids until maybe mid season. What if we are 6-0 and getting a lot of interest but only have 3 spots left? I'm sorry but you need 5* and highly rated 4 * players to win championships. If this was November I'd keep my mouth shut, but it's as if we are giving up on the big guys.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I was thinking about BK and recruiting earlier today (before I found about MDT), so this seems like a good place to share what I was thinking.

I realize every team isn't composed of only 4 and 5 star guys. Every team needs 3 star players....and some of them obviously become amazing talents. I was a little bummed about this past cycle's class. I felt there weren't any difference makers (I know, I know people will tell me they think ___ will be a difference maker), or at least that I didn't think any of the guys would definitely be. In my opinion, good coaches can win with 3* players, but in order to win a championship, those coaches need 5* players too-- difference makers. That was what made losing eddie vanderdoes so hard to swallow-- we knew he would be a difference maker. He was like Jaylon Smith or Teo, guys we knew (not just hoped COULD) be a difference maker. I think the same could maybe be said about Barnett.

And so far, I don't see any difference makers in this class. Obviously it's still early, and that can change. But as of today, no. After reading a couple things on IE about BK and staff and their approach to recruiting now, it seems like the staff is going after more guys who are local and/or perhaps less talented than others, but more of a "fit in the locker room," for lack of better phrase. And I think BK can do well and win a lot of games with guys like that...but I don't think he can win a championship with guys like that.

How many teams with DL (or any position group really) from the midwest have won a championship in the last 15-20 years? Osu, the year they played the greatest game they could possibly play, then were granted manna from heaven when a PI was called so late, Miami was already boarding their plane for their return flight back to Florida. That's pretty much it. The rest of the champions have had DL hailing from the south and California. DL play has been the greatest success of the dominance of the sec, usc, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Miami. Did they all win titles based solely on their DL? No way. More went into than that. But I also don't think it's a total coincidence that ND's best team and defense in a couple decades had DL starters from TX, FL, GA, and NC (including Shembo as a DL there).

Also, particularly after the success ND had in this last NFL draft, people are quick to point out how great BK is at getting and developing talent. I guess I only agree up to a point. In next year's draft (BK's first where he can truly say all the guys leaving were his guys), ND may only have a couple players drafted total, and probably none in the 1st or 2nd round (again-- obviously a long way to go until then).

This isn't a bash BK post, but I guess after this past signing day and up until now, I don't see all the amazing recruiting and developing BK has been given credit for time and time again on this site. I think BK has a long way to go before ND is truly contending for Natty's. I hope he can get there. Up until the past couple of months, I was pretty sure he could do it. Now, today? I honestly have to say I'm not so sure he can.

I would say this post appears to me to be incredibly short-sighted or focused on the negative.

How many players did we put in the NFL with the previous coaches. How many would've pegged Harrison as 1st-2nd rounder as a safety when Weis was playing him at LB? How many pegged Niklas (an OT according to the recruiting services) as a 2nd round TE in the NFL after only three years? How many thought Zach Martin was a 1st round draft out of Indy? How many times had we signed a Tuitt in years prior? How many games have we won with Tommy Rees at the helm?

We have a young team this year but star power is there. We could have a day1/2 WR, CB and possibly TE. That's all speculation, let's see how the season plays out but I don't think it's reasonable to say Kelly hasn't done a fantastic job with acquiring and developing talent. We put 8 people in the league this last draft. Bennitt Jackson signed a $2m dollar contract and he was a converted WR.

Look at the composite rankings of our recruiting classes and look at what Kelly has done since he started. You don't balance the roster over night, you have to methodically get things in order and he's done that. Our OL was in shambles when Kelly arrived, we went 3-9 and 6-6 with Clausen, Rudolph, Floyd, Tate, Riddick, J. Gray, etc. There was some talent at the skill positions but our OL and DL and defense in general, was flatout awful.

You see the early pledges to the Irish this year and compare them to what? The previous year? or year before that? Because Kelly has signed two composite Top 10 classes, one of which was top 5 (and we'll see many of those players leading our team this year as sophomores). Our WR recruiting has been fantastic, we finally have QBs that can play the game Kelly expects.

After the ink dries, Kelly will have signed another top 10 class. I can almost guarantee it. We are in on a lot of top level talent and we already have the foundation set so that the coaches can begin narrowing their scope.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Agree with you Hog. Fill recruiting classes up with 3* kids from the midwest and we will be Wisconsin before you know it. A solid team that win 7-10 games a year. Championships HELL NO. If this is as some around here have suggested, the base of the class that will be filled out with 5* player later, fantastic. If this is all we are coming away with in terms of quality, yikes.

Wisconsin (with the exception of the Wilson year), has never really been able to bring in a dynamic QB, and IMO they would have made some serious title runs with one. Ironically, they have developed some low rated receivers into studs regardless, but I guess a large part of that can be attributed to such an effective running game week in and week out.

 

[Irish Insanity]

As far as mid to low star recruits vs high star recruits, and the success of a program, MSU seems to be doing fairly well.

 

[kmoose]

I couldn't care less about stars as long as their film looks great and their offer lists back that.

Take Kolin Hill, for example. 3-star everywhere, but I'm as excited about him as any player in the 2014 class.

I can't speak for myself, but I don't think ND fans have a problem with 3-star players, as long as they can see why the staff offered by seeing that the player could be special based on his film + other offers.

Really? Then just who CAN you speak for?

I would also point out that the DL on ND's last National Championship team consisted of players from Chicago (Chris Zorich), Akron, OH (Frank Stams), and Overland Park, IL (Jeff Alm)

 

[koonja]

Really? Then just who CAN you speak for?

I would also point out that the DL on ND's last National Championship team consisted of players from Chicago (Chris Zorich), Akron, OH (Frank Stams), and Overland Park, IL (Jeff Alm)

Meant everyone else, obviously.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Do stars really matter? According to this story, they obviously do. Doesn't mean they are always gonna pan out, but the percentages are pretty good that they do in relation to lesser rated recruits.

Recruiting by the numbers: Why the sites get the rankings right - CBSSports.com

 

[irishog77]

I would say this post appears to me to be incredibly short-sighted or focused on the negative.

How many players did we put in the NFL with the previous coaches. How many would've pegged Harrison as 1st-2nd rounder as a safety when Weis was playing him at LB? How many pegged Niklas (an OT according to the recruiting services) as a 2nd round TE in the NFL after only three years? How many thought Zach Martin was a 1st round draft out of Indy? How many times had we signed a Tuitt in years prior? How many games have we won with Tommy Rees at the helm?

We have a young team this year but star power is there. We could have a day1/2 WR, CB and possibly TE. That's all speculation, let's see how the season plays out but I don't think it's reasonable to say Kelly hasn't done a fantastic job with acquiring and developing talent. We put 8 people in the league this last draft. Bennitt Jackson signed a $2m dollar contract and he was a converted WR.

Look at the composite rankings of our recruiting classes and look at what Kelly has done since he started. You don't balance the roster over night, you have to methodically get things in order and he's done that. Our OL was in shambles when Kelly arrived, we went 3-9 and 6-6 with Clausen, Rudolph, Floyd, Tate, Riddick, J. Gray, etc. There was some talent at the skill positions but our OL and DL and defense in general, was flatout awful.

You see the early pledges to the Irish this year and compare them to what? The previous year? or year before that? Because Kelly has signed two composite Top 10 classes, one of which was top 5 (and we'll see many of those players leading our team this year as sophomores). Our WR recruiting has been fantastic, we finally have QBs that can play the game Kelly expects.

After the ink dries, Kelly will have signed another top 10 class. I can almost guarantee it. We are in on a lot of top level talent and we already have the foundation set so that the coaches can begin narrowing their scope.

As I remember, the year Smith played LB, it was talked about that he was a future safety, but Weis was trying to get his best 11 players on the field. Like when Henry Melton was playing FB at Texas, but would be a DL in the future. I bring this up because I believe if Kelly tried something like this, he would be lauded on this site for doing something like that. Troy Niklas? The guy coming out of high school that was projected as an OL, TE, DL, or LB? So Kelly had the same vision that recruitniks, pundits, and members of this board had, yet we're supposed to be in awe of Kelly because he saw the same thing tons of other people saw? I give Kelly credit for Tuitt. But let's also be perfectly honest about him. He had one year where he did an ok job...as a reserve, had one outstanding year as a starter, and had one decent year as a starter (injuries to blame or not), then was a 2nd round pick. It's not like Tuitt was some transcendent player. Martin? Yeah, he's definitely a success story for Kelly (although he was a Weis recruit). But virtually every decent program has players like him and Tuitt-- a couple good to great players. Great programs, however, usually have players like that...every year.

Somebody mentioned on here the other day that ND is top 5, top 10 in total draft picks for the past 20 years or so. So Davie, Willingham, and Weis were still sending guys to the league. Yet we praise Kelly for doing the same thing as these guys? Of the 8 guys drafted last month, really only 2 of them were Kelly recruits-- he inherited the rest. Next year's draft is a long ways off, but there's ~1% chance he duplicates any of that same success next year.

Does this post and my prior post mean I don't like Kelly or think he's not doing good things at ND, or that he isn't clearly the best coach since Holtz? No. I do like Kelly, I think he's doing good things at ND, and I think he's easily the best coach since Holtz.

But based on the last 15-20 years of the ultimate results of college football and the changes coming with a playoff, there are things there that certainly indicate BK and ND aren't poised for a run of dominance and titles. Can they win 10 or so games a year and be in contention for the playoffs? Sure, that's definitely possible. I hope fans and the staff and team hope for more than being a "pretty good team" though.

I hope I am 100% wrong and Kelly does things for ND that haven't been seen since Leahy. I hope he does things for ND like Ara and Holtz did. Honestly though, I'm not sure he can. That's not being negative. That's looking at the information and results out there and being realistic and candid.

 

[BobD]

Star Whores

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

As I remember, the year Smith played LB, it was talked about that he was a future safety, but Weis was trying to get his best 11 players on the field. Like when Henry Melton was playing FB at Texas, but would be a DL in the future. I bring this up because I believe if Kelly tried something like this, he would be lauded on this site for doing something like that. Troy Niklas? The guy coming out of high school that was projected as an OL, TE, DL, or LB? So Kelly had the same vision that recruitniks, pundits, and members of this board had, yet we're supposed to be in awe of Kelly because he saw the same thing tons of other people saw? I give Kelly credit for Tuitt. But let's also be perfectly honest about him. He had one year where he did an ok job...as a reserve, had one outstanding year as a starter, and had one decent year as a starter (injuries to blame or not), then was a 2nd round pick. It's not like Tuitt was some transcendent player. Martin? Yeah, he's definitely a success story for Kelly (although he was a Weis recruit). But virtually every decent program has players like him and Tuitt-- a couple good to great players. Great programs, however, usually have players like that...every year.

Another big point about big 5* names that have NFL bodies--they usually don't stick around too long. As you said about Tuitt, you can argue that we only got 1/2 a season of truly dominant football out of him. Meanwhile, a guy like Kap gave us 3 full years of starting-caliber football, and probably had a bigger total impact on the team during his tenure. By the time they really understand the system, they're usually gone. Obviously there are exceptions but you can't just rely on guys that are the 3 year and out type.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Another big point about big 5* names that have NFL bodies--they usually don't stick around too long. As you said about Tuitt, you can argue that we only got 1/2 a season of truly dominant football out of him. Meanwhile, a guy like Kap gave us 3 full years of starting-caliber football, and probably had a bigger total impact on the team during his tenure. By the time they really understand the system, they're usually gone. Obviously there are exceptions but you can't just rely on guys that are the 3 year and out type.

Have to disagree here. While KLM most likely had a much bigger influence in the locker room, the two really don't compare on the field. If you make me choose between the two, I choose Tuitt every time.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

As I remember, the year Smith played LB, it was talked about that he was a future safety, but Weis was trying to get his best 11 players on the field. Like when Henry Melton was playing FB at Texas, but would be a DL in the future. I bring this up because I believe if Kelly tried something like this, he would be lauded on this site for doing something like that. Troy Niklas? The guy coming out of high school that was projected as an OL, TE, DL, or LB? So Kelly had the same vision that recruitniks, pundits, and members of this board had, yet we're supposed to be in awe of Kelly because he saw the same thing tons of other people saw? I give Kelly credit for Tuitt. But let's also be perfectly honest about him. He had one year where he did an ok job...as a reserve, had one outstanding year as a starter, and had one decent year as a starter (injuries to blame or not), then was a 2nd round pick. It's not like Tuitt was some transcendent player. Martin? Yeah, he's definitely a success story for Kelly (although he was a Weis recruit). But virtually every decent program has players like him and Tuitt-- a couple good to great players. Great programs, however, usually have players like that...every year.

Somebody mentioned on here the other day that ND is top 5, top 10 in total draft picks for the past 20 years or so. So Davie, Willingham, and Weis were still sending guys to the league. Yet we praise Kelly for doing the same thing as these guys? Of the 8 guys drafted last month, really only 2 of them were Kelly recruits-- he inherited the rest. Next year's draft is a long ways off, but there's ~1% chance he duplicates any of that same success next year.

Does this post and my prior post mean I don't like Kelly or think he's not doing good things at ND, or that he isn't clearly the best coach since Holtz? No. I do like Kelly, I think he's doing good things at ND, and I think he's easily the best coach since Holtz.

But based on the last 15-20 years of the ultimate results of college football and the changes coming with a playoff, there are things there that certainly indicate BK and ND aren't poised for a run of dominance and titles. Can they win 10 or so games a year and be in contention for the playoffs? Sure, that's definitely possible. I hope fans and the staff and team hope for more than being a "pretty good team" though.

I hope I am 100% wrong and Kelly does things for ND that haven't been seen since Leahy. I hope he does things for ND like Ara and Holtz did. Honestly though, I'm not sure he can. That's not being negative. That's looking at the information and results out there and being realistic and candid.

It sounds like we are mostly in agreement. How many programs are better at recruiting than ND in the Kelly era, though? Maybe 6 or 8?

What separates Irish recruiting from the tier above them is the lack of 5 star types though, not the 3 stars. ND has tried to fit in 5 star guys focused on the NFL and it hasn't worked out in many cases. I personally think there's a lot of bad luck in there but there are systemic disadvantages with getting and keeping the top, top talents in South Bend.

I do believe the 2013 class shows ND can run with anybody when having tremendous success on the field. If Kelly can get into the playoff a couple times with talent around #10 in the country then I think ND will be in that group. I think they can do that with the current talent on hand with a little bit of good fortune. So I don't see ND being stuck in neutral as a 9 or 10 win team. The best wave of talent are underclassmen, Tommy Rees was under center, and ND still won a healthy number of games. With the coming rise in talent with experience that breakthrough could be right around the corner.