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NumbersGuy0520

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Some quick math for you fellow IE degens:

- Last week the regular season win line was set at over/under 10 wins. There was much more juice on the under, but we’ve since beat Purdue and seen the GTech line move. I don’t see a current line for ND wins. The probability of 11-1 is most likely close to 40%, or higher. 40% assumes an average win probability of ~83% for each remaining game, or an average point spread of about -13. Some games will be more, some games less. But basically… 40-50% chance of 11-1
- DraftKings currently has Notre Dame as -150 to make the playoffs. This says 60% chance to make the playoffs. Maybe closer to 55% chance when you decouple house edge.

So, reading between the lines, Vegas thinks there is a very real chance we make playoffs at 10-2.
The lines imply about a 30-50% chance of ND playoffs at 10-2, most likely sneaking in as a 11 or 12 seed.
 

notredomer23

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Some quick math for you fellow IE degens:

- Last week the regular season win line was set at over/under 10 wins. There was much more juice on the under, but we’ve since beat Purdue and seen the GTech line move. I don’t see a current line for ND wins. The probability of 11-1 is most likely close to 40%, or higher. 40% assumes an average win probability of ~83% for each remaining game, or an average point spread of about -13. Some games will be more, some games less. But basically… 40-50% chance of 11-1
- DraftKings currently has Notre Dame as -150 to make the playoffs. This says 60% chance to make the playoffs. Maybe closer to 55% chance when you decouple house edge.

So, reading between the lines, Vegas thinks there is a very real chance we make playoffs at 10-2.
The lines imply about a 30-50% chance of ND playoffs at 10-2, most likely sneaking in as a 11 or 12 seed.

Fine by me sneaking in as the 11 or 12. While the first round is tougher, it’s a much more realistic shot to make the semifinals than 7-10 and having a quarterfinal matchup against the Big 10 or SEC.
 

IA4irish

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If this is remotely close to accurate were not even in the game.


I don’t think that’s accurate. How do they know the amount down to the dollar? Also, no Tennessee, Oregon or Texas a&m? Michigan has also complained they aren’t close to the top in spending.
 

Dizzyphil

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I don’t think that’s accurate. How do they know the amount down to the dollar? Also, no Tennessee, Oregon or Texas a&m? Michigan has also complained they aren’t close to the top in spending.
It does say Estimated... but,..... did I hear that Brady Quinn is like the manager or something for the Irish FB NIL?
 

Dizzyphil

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But does anyone have any semi confident number ND is spending per year? I doubt it's $20M.
Well Sam Hartman did a $1.1M NIL.... RL shared some of his NIL with the OL so, like coach's salaries and others under the Athletic Department, I will always think we will never know the actual 'numbers'....
 

Dizzyphil

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AP -
  1. Oregon (Big Ten)- 7-0 (+1)
  2. Georgia (SEC)- 6-1 (+3)
  3. Penn State (Big Ten)- 6-0 (-)
  4. Ohio State (Big Ten)- 5-1 (-)
  5. Texas (SEC)- 6-1 (-4)
  6. Miami (FL) (ACC)- 7-0 (-)
  7. Tennessee (SEC)- 6-1 (+4)
  8. LSU (SEC)- 6-1 (-)
  9. Clemson (ACC)- 6-1 (+1)
  10. Iowa State (Big 12)- 7-0 (-1)
  11. BYU (Big 12)- 7-0 (+2)
  12. Notre Dame (IA Independents)- 6-1 (-)
  13. Indiana (Big Ten)- 7-0 (+3)
  14. Texas A&M (SEC)- 6-1 (-)
  15. Alabama (SEC)- 5-1 (-8)
  16. Kansas State (Big 12)- 6-1 (+1)
  17. Boise State (Mountain West)- 5-1 (-2)
  18. Ole Miss (SEC)- 5-2 (-)
  19. Pittsburgh (ACC)- 6-0 (+1)
  20. Illinois (Big Ten)- 6-1 (+2)
  21. Missouri (SEC)- 6-1 (-2)
  22. SMU (ACC)- 6-1 (-1)
  23. Army (AAC)- 7-0 (-)
  24. Navy (AAC)- 6-0 (+1)
  25. Vanderbilt (SEC)- 5-2 (Not ranked in Week 7)
 

Irish du Nord

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Fine by me sneaking in as the 11 or 12. While the first round is tougher, it’s a much more realistic shot to make the semifinals than 7-10 and having a quarterfinal matchup against the Big 10 or SEC.
ND is undefeated against the Big 10 and SEC this year, bring em on
 

ulukinatme

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If/when Indiana beats Washington next week I fully expect we get jumped for the 3rd week in a row by a team that has a less impressive SoS, but happens to be undefeated. Hopefully Pitt doesn't get pushed past us too, their schedule is even worse. Just got to win out though, the teams above us will be knocking each other off in the next month.
 

Rockin’Irish

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It's almost as if Golden uses the scoring drive to adjust the D to where he wants them to play the rest of the game.....
I heard one of the players say that Golden always tells the defense that the opposing team will use their best 15 scripted plays to start the game and THEN he will make adjustments once he‘s seen them.
 

ulukinatme

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If A&M beats LSU they'll jump us, won't they? Stupid.
Possible, hopefully not, but at that point A&M probably would have a better resume and their loss to us looks a hell of a lot better than ours to NIU.
 

Irish#1

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We’re not getting any consideration from the pollsters. A solid road win over a two loss team shouldn’t have allowed BYU to jump us.

Tennessee made a big jump while Bama had a big drop which is a contradiction. If Bama is that bad, then why reward Tennessee so much for beating them at home? This is two weeks in a row we’ve seen that fouled logic by the pollsters.
 

stlnd01

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We’re not getting any consideration from the pollsters. A solid road win over a two loss team shouldn’t have allowed BYU to jump us.

Tennessee made a big jump while Bama had a big drop which is a contradiction. If Bama is that bad, then why reward Tennessee so much for beating them at home? This is two weeks in a row we’ve seen that fouled logic by the pollsters.
Hey now. BYU beat a team that's ranked 16th in the Big 12 by three points, at home, the other night. That's a statement victory.
 

TNUtoNotreDame

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We’re not getting any consideration from the pollsters. A solid road win over a two loss team shouldn’t have allowed BYU to jump us.

Tennessee made a big jump while Bama had a big drop which is a contradiction. If Bama is that bad, then why reward Tennessee so much for beating them at home? This is two weeks in a row we’ve seen that fouled logic by the pollsters.
NIU is an anchor to us. That is the reason that always gets brought up.

It is an unforgettable loss, especially because NIU sucks.
 

GoIrish41

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If A&M beats LSU they'll jump us, won't they? Stupid.
I’d suspect they are the only team who can’t jump us. But if they would, I agree that would be stupid. We just have to wait for the teams above us to canibalize one another until it would just be an embarrassment not to move ND up. That NIU loss is a bruise that won’t heal.

That said, I can’t recall a year in which the top of the board is so under-punished after a loss. Three teams in the top five have a loss in the past two weeks. Almost like they are destined to finish on top no matter what.
 
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