Economics

[Wild Bill]

I refi'd 6 months ago, but with the corona-craziness I'm considering again now.

Currently on 20 year, 3.875%. Wells Fargo is offering 15 year, 3%.

Should I jump now? Or are these going to drop even further in the weeks to come?

I'd guess they move lower.

Depends on the costs to refi, what you owe, how long you plan on living there and whether or not you'd be better served investing the difference between your mortgage payment now and what you will pay if you refi into a 15 year.

 

[wizards8507]

Whiskey, I'm starting to come to the conclusion that your girl Liz and her husband are legitimately evil.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Whiskey, I'm starting to come to the conclusion that your girl Liz and her husband are legitimately evil.

Link the tweets?

 

[wizards8507]

Link the tweets?

Podcasts.

They're constantly crying about how expensive it is to raise children despite the fact that they pull in about $200K from Patreon, plus whatever she makes from the NYT. And they don't talk about the cost of childcare in the abstract, they complain about their own situation. It's nothing concrete, but their entire tone and tenor just screams "grifters" to me. Between Liz and the #WCT crew headed up by Mecha and Kev, the LeftCaths on Twitter really give me a nasty taste in my mouth.

 

[Wild Bill]

Market is getting destroyed. Tomorrow should be fun.

 

[Irish#1]

A good overall review of the proposed changes in the sudent loan program proposed in Trump's 2021.

Trump Student Loan Forgiveness Changes and 2020 Proposals

A quick review from CNBC on student loan forgiveness:

Trump looks to kill student loan forgiveness program

Would love to see the subsidy program go away. Makes it way to easy for banks to recoup almost every penny on defaulted loans and allows to banks to grant loans to many who wouldn't qualify for most any other loan.

Currently if a student defaults, the bank gets reimbursed like 80% of the defaulted amount, and then can continue to collect on the total defaulted amount and then sell to a collection agency. If loans were harder to get, schools wouldn't be raising their costs every year.

 

[Bluto]

Market is getting destroyed. Tomorrow should be fun.

Odds that Larry Kudlow gets thrown under the bus by Donald?

 

[koonja]

FWIW, I locked in a refi for 15 years at 2.95% fixed.

Debating now whether or not to max our our IRA (which we just did for 2019 2 months ago).

We typically do it in ~January but considering adding next year's funds now to buy low.

Right move?

 

[Irish YJ]

FWIW, I locked in a refi for 15 years at 2.95% fixed.

Debating now whether or not to max our our IRA (which we just did for 2019 2 months ago).

We typically do it in ~January but considering adding next year's funds now to buy low.

Right move?

I'd suggest waiting a bit longer.

 

[wizards8507]

FWIW, I locked in a refi for 15 years at 2.95% fixed.

Debating now whether or not to max our our IRA (which we just did for 2019 2 months ago).

We typically do it in ~January but considering adding next year's funds now to buy low.

Right move?

Out of curiosity, why are you using an IRA instead of a 401k?

Regardless, don't try to time the market with your retirement savings. Invest steadily every week.

 

[NDBoiler]

Out of curiosity, why are you using an IRA instead of a 401k?

Regardless, don't try to time the market with your retirement savings. Invest steadily every week.

Typically an IRA would give you way more fund options than a 401k. If there is a 401k employer match, I’d take that up to the match, then go Roth IRA for any other investing up to the IRA max (assuming you don’t exceed the max income for Roth IRA). After that, I’d go traditional IRA, again for the wider range of options. However, if you have an employer that offers a Roth 401k with match, that would be the best IMO.

 

[wizards8507]

Typically an IRA would give you way more fund options than a 401k. If there is a 401k employer match, I’d take that up to the match, then go Roth IRA for any other investing up to the IRA max (assuming you don’t exceed the max income for Roth IRA). After that, I’d go traditional IRA, again for the wider range of options. However, if you have an employer that offers a Roth 401k with match, that would be the best IMO.

There are 401k plans that don't offer generic index funds?

I agree with what you said on Roth IRAs, but traditional IRAs are obsolete IMO.

 

[Ndaccountant]

There are 401k plans that don't offer generic index funds?

I agree with what you said on Roth IRAs, but traditional IRAs are obsolete IMO.

My 401k plan has fund options, as well as a self-brokered option that essentially moves the funds to a E-trade like platform where we can buy any fund (open or closed) or any individual stock or any listed index fund. No derivatives or anything like that, but if you really wanted to, there are plenty of leveraged index funds that mimic it anyway. Trade fees are no different than any low cost platform out there today.

 

[NDBoiler]

There are 401k plans that don't offer generic index funds?

I agree with what you said on Roth IRAs, but traditional IRAs are obsolete IMO.

It obviously depends on the employer, but yes, you can find some. For example, my employer offers a series of target date blended funds plus a couple each of large cap/mid cap/small cap/international funds. An employer match is hard to pass up too.

I agree traditional IRAs have limited usefulness. They probably only make sense if you have no employer match and want the wide range of fund options, but exceed the Roth IRA income limit (you could also do a back door Roth IRA in this situation). Or, if you want to rollover an old employer 401k and don’t have the money/desire to pay the tax bill and roll it to a Roth IRA, it would be an option there too.

 

[koonja]

We match out r 401K too.


But the last 2 years we've started maxing out IRA as well
We're 33 and 34.

 

[koonja]

Ours is a Roth IRA. I didn't clarify that.

 

[koonja]

Financial Illiterate here - I just put $6,000 into my Roth IRA. It will sit there as cash until I decide to invest it across the mutual funds.

How do I track if the stock market is up/down each day? What website do you recommend?

 

[MJ12666]

Financial Illiterate here - I just put $6,000 into my Roth IRA. It will sit there as cash until I decide to invest it across the mutual funds.

How do I track if the stock market is up/down each day? What website do you recommend?

If all you want to do is see how the indexes are preforming you can use Yahoo Finance. You can also use this website to get quotes for stocks and mutual funds, but I believe that the quotes are on a 20 min. delay.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

 

[koonja]

If all you want to do is see how the indexes are preforming you can use Yahoo Finance. You can also use this website to get quotes for stocks and mutual funds, but I believe that the quotes are on a 20 min. delay.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

Thanks. Created an account and added 5 MF's to the "watch list".

Going to wait for the big drop then pounce like I know what I'm doing.

 

[NDBoiler]

Thanks. Created an account and added 5 MF's to the "watch list".

Going to wait for the big drop then pounce like I know what I'm doing.

I wouldn’t suggest trying to time the market. If you’re investing for the long term (which you are if you are using a Roth IRA), there’s little value in doing that. Plus, you’ll be kicking yourself when you wish you would’ve waited one more day or done it yesterday.

I would also suggest focusing on an index like the S&P 500 and not the DJI or Nasdaq. It is a much broader index that gives a more diversified picture of what the market is doing as a whole, and would probably align better with the performance of more mutual funds (which are typically comprised of about 100-200 individual stocks). Keep in mind that you also want funds that have a long track record of good returns (at least 10+ years), and that are of diversified types, which can help cut losses a bit in times like this.

 

[Wild Bill]

Thanks. Created an account and added 5 MF's to the "watch list".

Going to wait for the big drop then pounce like I know what I'm doing.

Where did you create the account? You should be able to view the real time market prices on their platform.

 

[MJ12666]

Where did you create the account? You should be able to view the real time market prices on their platform.

Yahoo Finance allows you to set-up a what you could describe as an "account", which is basically a "watch list". that allows you to enter stock symbols that allow you to follow activity for the identified stocks/mutual funds, along with multiple criteria, such as price, volume, 52-week highs/lows, ...

 

[koonja]

So Yahoo Finance, I have a personal "watch list". These are the 5 MF's I currently invest in, and I have my cash in my account ready to invest in them anytime now. Here are my funds:

SWSSX
SWTSX
SWPPX
SWMCX
SWISX

When I see red I am pouncing like a Clemson Tiger.

 

[koonja]

Im about to make billions.

 

[Luckylucci]

If you are worried about lower prices then I'd consider a layering strategy. S&P off 15% from highs, add. S&P off 20%, add. S&P off 25%, add. So on and so forth. That's just an example as you can change it based on preference.

I wouldn't get caught trying to 'time' the market but I would be mindful that with a VIX over 50, 3-5% market fluctuations should be expected. If available, you can use buy limit orders to add cash to positions at pre-determined levels.

This helps alleviate some of the emotion behind investing when the markets are declining at this pace. It also helps alleviate chasing the market when it does rally.

After severe market sell-offs or the type of destructive trading we've seen, there is usually a lot of constructive trading that needs to take place prior to the resumption of normalcy and significantly higher prices. It's very common to see significant bounces, like we already have at times, when ultimately lower prices are still to come. V shape recoveries are possible (4th Qtr 2018), but so are W's. Most significant market pullbacks end with some sort of general price consolidation. In the event of a W, you get the market to hit the same general point more than once. If that were to occur and you have limits in at lower prices, you can always make those market orders. That's a better option that just going all in at one price, IMO.

 

[koonja]

If you are worried about lower prices then I'd consider a layering strategy. S&P off 15% from highs, add. S&P off 20%, add. S&P off 25%, add. So on and so forth. That's just an example as you can change it based on preference.

I wouldn't get caught trying to 'time' the market but I would be mindful that with a VIX over 50, 3-5% market fluctuations should be expected. If available, you can use buy limit orders to add cash to positions at pre-determined levels.

This helps alleviate some of the emotion behind investing when the markets are declining at this pace. It also helps alleviate chasing the market when it does rally.

After severe market sell-offs or the type of destructive trading we've seen, there is usually a lot of constructive trading that needs to take place prior to the resumption of normalcy and significantly higher prices. It's very common to see significant bounces, like we already have at times, when ultimately lower prices are still to come. V shape recoveries are possible (4th Qtr 2018), but so are W's. Most significant market pullbacks end with some sort of general price consolidation. In the event of a W, you get the market to hit the same general point more than once. If that were to occur and you have limits in at lower prices, you can always make those market orders. That's a better option that just going all in at one price, IMO.

You're speaking Spanish and I'm speaking benjamins.

For real though, I have no idea what you just said. God willing Im ~30 years from cashing out so I'm just trying to buy now while everythings cheap with my IRA max alllowed.

So I'm not going to try to out smart the market too much. If I log in tomorrow and everythings cheaper than it was today, I'll likely spend all $6,000.

 

[Luckylucci]

You're speaking Spanish and I'm speaking benjamins.

For real though, I have no idea what you just said. God willing Im ~30 years from cashing out so I'm just trying to buy now while everythings cheap with my IRA max alllowed.
So I'm not going to try to out smart the market too much. If I log in tomorrow and everythings cheaper than it was today, I'll likely spend all $6,000.

This is why I don't get involved in these discussions. You said you were going to wait for the big drop, then pounce. Is that today? Was it Monday? When is that going to be?

If you're just going to buy now then so be it, no need to discuss it further. But a disciplined approach to putting capital to work (like layering) does both. Gets you invested, as the market goes down.

 

[koonja]

This is why I don't get involved in these discussions. You said you were going to wait for the big drop, then pounce. Is that today? Was it Monday? When is that going to be?

If you're just going to buy now then so be it, no need to discuss it further. But a disciplined approach to putting capital to work (like layering) does both. Gets you invested, as the market goes down.

I don't understand what you're saying or how to execute it.

I was going to max my Roth IRA in ~11 months like I do every year. Given it's down I'm going to do it now.

I simply am not an investor so IDK how to do things like you said. But I know to buy low and it's lower than it's been since I've started investinin Roth IRA.

So whether $100 stocks have dropped to $50, but will eventually drop to $30 and I could time that out with a strategy like youre mentioning.... Im still better off getting in now even if I can't time it perfectly, before stocks go back up to $100 and beyond.

 

[Luckylucci]

I don't understand what you're saying or how to execute it.

I was going to max my Roth IRA in ~11 months like I do every year. Given it's down I'm going to do it now.

I simply am not an investor so IDK how to do things like you said. But I know to buy low and it's lower than it's been since I've started investinin Roth IRA.

So whether $100 stocks have dropped to $50, but will eventually drop to $30 and I could time that out with a strategy like youre mentioning.... Im still better off getting in now even if I can't time it perfectly, before stocks go back up to $100 and beyond.

It's a concept for people that are worried about further market downside but want to get cash invested. Don't overthink it and do as you planned.

But when the S&P is down another 5% don't say I didn't warn you, lol

 

[Irish#1]

I don't understand what you're saying or how to execute it.

I was going to max my Roth IRA in ~11 months like I do every year. Given it's down I'm going to do it now.

I simply am not an investor so IDK how to do things like you said. But I know to buy low and it's lower than it's been since I've started investinin Roth IRA.

So whether $100 stocks have dropped to $50, but will eventually drop to $30 and I could time that out with a strategy like youre mentioning.... Im still better off getting in now even if I can't time it perfectly, before stocks go back up to $100 and beyond.

You're getting some good advice. No one knows when things will hit rock bottom which is what your trying to do. You're going to wait and then things are going to turn and you'll be mad you didn't get it invested. Quit trying to max every penny. That never works.

I like Lucky's approach. He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he's saying take some of that money and invest now (today). Then invest some in a few more days, then again. Repeat until you have it all invested. That way you're protecting your money, but will be ready when things turn around.