Degenerate Gambling Thread

[RDU Irish]

Early season CFB is always a bit of a crapshoot. With the massive movement in portals now I have to believe Week 1 level of play will be anything like week 5 on. Takes some time to know what most teams have IMO. That being said......

ND to cover -20.5
LSU to smoke Clemson, I think Clemson is in decline
SMU -3 is criminally low over FSU who continues their dumpster fire ways, SMU should play for the ACC title IMO. I'll probably juice that to -13.5 and see what kind of odds I can get.

I'll follow some of that Memphis love -10 vs Arkansas State. They beat Arkansas last year by 1, they can 10x that vs Ark State.

Texas -30.5 vs Texas State looks light to me if Texas is really a top 5 team.

Thursday Colorado @ GT is the only game worth watching. Justice Haynes for 100+ rushing and a TD. GT to cover. run heavy to protect young QB and ball control leaning on improved defense.

Parlay LSU, SMU, Memphis, GT all MLs is +256

LSU ML, ND -20.5, GT -6.5, Memphis -10.5, SMU -3 for a +1587 opening week bankroll builder.

 

[Dale]

I bet Colorado +7.5 a short while back, don’t think it gets back over 7

Not in love with this Colorado team, have their season win total U. But Ga Tech might be bad too. RB duo is elite but QB, WR, TE, OL, OC are all downgrades to me. Don’t trust their D won’t be bad again either.

 

[Dale]

I also want to back Miami (OH) in some way. Leaning Pitt TT U which isn’t posted yet. Should be 32.5 roughly. Hoping Miami (OH) can keep it away a bit but don’t trust them to score without knowing a thing about their QB.

Think 2024 game against ND

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Early season CFB is always a bit of a crapshoot. With the massive movement in portals now I have to believe Week 1 level of play will be anything like week 5 on. Takes some time to know what most teams have IMO. That being said......

ND to cover -20.5
LSU to smoke Clemson, I think Clemson is in decline
SMU -3 is criminally low over FSU who continues their dumpster fire ways, SMU should play for the ACC title IMO. I'll probably juice that to -13.5 and see what kind of odds I can get.

I'll follow some of that Memphis love -10 vs Arkansas State. They beat Arkansas last year by 1, they can 10x that vs Ark State.

Texas -30.5 vs Texas State looks light to me if Texas is really a top 5 team.

Thursday Colorado @ GT is the only game worth watching. Justice Haynes for 100+ rushing and a TD. GT to cover. run heavy to protect young QB and ball control leaning on improved defense.

Parlay LSU, SMU, Memphis, GT all MLs is +256

LSU ML, ND -20.5, GT -6.5, Memphis -10.5, SMU -3 for a +1587 opening week bankroll builder.

I agree with most of this. I'm on ND -20.5 vs. Wisconsin for sure.

I like LSU -10.5 vs. Clemson and will probably bet it.

Would lean SMU -3 but something seems off with that line so I'm probably staying away from that one.

Definitely staying off Memphis this week because I think they're in for a slight letdown after a big win as road dogs in week 0.

Texas State is a good G6 team but will get boat raced by UT. Would consider laying the 30.5 there.

Colorado sucks but so does GT, who shouldn't be favored by a touchdown over really any P4 team IMO.

Good luck with your picks!

 

[notredomer23]

Stanford + the points and sprinkle the moneyline.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

I also want to back Miami (OH) in some way. Leaning Pitt TT U which isn’t posted yet. Should be 32.5 roughly. Hoping Miami (OH) can keep it away a bit but don’t trust them to score without knowing a thing about their QB.

Think 2024 game against ND

If I can find Miami Ohio +17 I'll probably be on it.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

I'll likely be on at least one of the double digit underdogs on Thursday (UMass, Akron, or UAB).

 

[RDU Irish]

Jennings doesn't need an OL - he can Scooby Doo his way to moving the chains. Made me look it up tho - https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/a...6ZXxs9Blqz0W6ajMqdWlG1fquv4-OdynlDNEq3q-WwFDS

Maybe one of the more cohesive units for a week one team out there. I like SMU to play Miami for the ACC title. Favorable conference schedule - they come to FSU with some purpose IMO. They will likely have their standard WTF loss later in the season but I don't think this is it. I think NIL will be good to the former death penalty recipient with deep pockets.

I'm also banking on FSU sucking again.

 

[RDU Irish]

Stanford + the points and sprinkle the moneyline.

Miami doesn't travel well? Stanford that good or Miami caught sleeping? Miami did have two conference losses last year, Cristobal knows how to lay eggs.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Here's what I'm on so far in week 1:

1. James Madison -7
2. Arkansas State +11.5
3. Houston -20.5
4. ND -20.5
5. Louisville +7 (and moneyline)

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Added two more...

6. Toledo +10.5 (and moneyline)
7. Miami Ohio +17.5 (and moneyline)

Bought an extra point on both spreads to get over some key numbers. Hopefully this will be a nice little welcome back to CFB for Fitzgerald. And fuck Narduzzi forever of course. The 3 double digit dogs on Thursday (UMass, Akron, and UAB) appear to be heavily backed by the betting public, so I'll probably pass on those.

 

[Dale]

I took 1H U 26.5 on Miami (OH) @ Pitt ultimately instead of playing Miami directly or Pitt TT

 

[ACamp1900]

The fact that no one even blinks at UTEP being 41.5 point dogs,...... ugh

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

The fact that no one even blinks at UTEP being 41.5 point dogs,...... ugh

Per vegasinsider.com, 94% of the bets and 71% of the money is on UTEP to cover. So a lot of people are apparently blinking. Hard pass for me.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Other bets I'm considering: Oregon, Auburn, LSU, Washington, and South Dakota State. And Texas/Texas State over 59.5.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Other bets I'm considering: Oregon, Auburn, LSU, Washington, and South Dakota State. And Texas/Texas State over 59.5.

Added 3 more:

8. Oregon -23.5
9. Auburn -6.5
10. Texas/Texas State o58.5

Bought a point on all 3 to get past key numbers.

 

[Dale]

JMO but gotta stop buying points my man, especially in college football is a big net negative

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

JMO but gotta stop buying points my man, especially in college football is a big net negative

Yeah I typically don't do it. Last year I got burned on several bets near key numbers in week 1, so I'm switching up my approach a little this week. For anyone buying points, Kalshi and NoVig offer cheaper options on that than most sportsbooks.

 

[JamIrish]

Some Player props are up for the Wisconsin game. They got TD scorers and Carr is set at 219.5 yds at FD. Draftkings has...

Aneyas 83.5
Greathouse 32.5
Faison. 63.5

 

[NDFAN2008]

Some Player props are up for the Wisconsin game. They got TD scorers and Carr is set at 219.5 yds at FD. Draftkings has...

Aneyas 83.5
Greathouse 32.5
Faison. 63.5

I think Aneyas gets over 100 and Greathouse around 60 yards

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

I think Aneyas gets over 100 and Greathouse around 60 yards

Carr over
Aneyas under (won't play 4th Q)
Greathouse over
Faison over
TDs: Aneyas, Young, Faison, Graham, and James Flanigan (hometown special)

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Final picks for week 1:

1. James Madison -7
2. Arkansas State +11.5 (and moneyline)
3. Houston -20.5
4. ND -20.5
5. Louisville +7 (and moneyline)
6. Toledo +10.5 (and moneyline)
7. Miami Ohio +17.5 (and moneyline)
8. Oregon -23.5
9. Auburn -6.5
10. LSU -9.5
11. Washington -23.5
12. South Dakota State +14.5 (and moneyline)
13. Texas/Texas State o58.5

Also have a round robin underdog moneyline parlay with Toledo, Arkansas State, FIU, CMU, and Louisville (every possible combination of 2 team parlays and 3 team parlays plus a 5 team parlay).

 

[Mattmags]

Carr over
Aneyas under (won't play 4th Q)
Greathouse over
Faison over
TDs: Aneyas, Young, Faison, Graham, and James Flanigan (hometown special)

Bryce or Kedron? or both?!

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

These touchdown odds for ND players are terrible and I wouldn't bet any of them...

Aneyas -250
Faison +120
Cooper Flanagan +160
Gilbert +210
Greathouse +240
Carr +280

EDIT: From a pure probability perspective, and considering that the offense has been going under center in short yardage situations (QB sneak?), Carr might be worth a look at +280.

 

[Dale]

Really like Cam Edwards O71.5 rushing yards for Sparty

 

[bkess8]

Any Thursday night picks from the board? Thinking about some straight bets and maybe one parlay.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Any Thursday night picks from the board? Thinking about some straight bets and maybe one parlay.

I might add a small play on Colorado +7. The guys on Action Network have Colorado +7, Akron +24.5, Illinois -27.5, Illinois/UAB over 55, and UMass/Rutgers over 54.

 

[JamIrish]

Looking at some player props. Justice Haynes opened at 71.5 yds moved up to 80.5 yds. Hardy is out for Mizzou so Roberts should have a game. The Utah Utes are set at 294 rushing yards so Parker or Dampier would be players to consider.

 

[Dale]

Looking at some player props. Justice Haynes opened at 71.5 yds moved up to 80.5 yds. Hardy is out for Mizzou so Roberts should have a game. The Utah Utes are set at 294 rushing yards so Parker or Dampier would be players to consider.

Don’t love the uncertainty of Haynes/Hosely’s snap share there. OC change and extent of which Mendoza is dual threat as well.

JMO

 

[JamIrish]

Don’t love the uncertainty of Haynes/Hosely’s snap share there. OC change and extent of which Mendoza is dual threat as well.

JMO

Grabbed him at 70 before it went up. Banking on Mendoza not running as much as King and Colorado being undersized upfront