COVID-19

TorontoGold

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Not too familiar with him. All I know if one of our own CDC bosses is on board, it's not a crazy theory.

I've read a lot of the scientific mumbo jumbo, and the leak seems most plausible. At minimum, even if not from the lab, China is lying their asses off. The Harvard study suggests it was spreading much earlier, possibly the summer. Also the findings on the spike protein suggests it either A) was spreading far longer than China admits, or was B) engineered with spike protein. There's also adequate doubt now that it was species cross.

CNN, NYT, and all the usual cast of characters are all using the word debunked in their headlines. None though have talked about the Harvard study, the spike protein, etc. At least Reuters and a few centerish resources have reported on it.

Not sure on the source but I remember reading that Italy looked at their sewage samples from like March 2019 and found the virus in there. The origin story is going to be wild.
 

Irish YJ

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Not sure on the source but I remember reading that Italy looked at their sewage samples from like March 2019 and found the virus in there. The origin story is going to be wild.

Well I think everyone agrees now it's ultimate origin was the Chinese bat given. The only debate that remains is when did the spread start, and how.

There are a few Harvard, and Harvard-tied studies I've read. One saw clear evidence of increased inflow to Wuhan hospitals (satellite images) starting in the early summer of 2019, which speaks to the when. China of course denies and are holding to December.

The how is down to 1) escaped from lab, 2) bat to human to human, or 3) bat to another species (jump) and then to human. The Harvard-tied study I read (and there are others) say the spike protein found on the surface of the virus (in the earliest of samples) had already matured/mutated to a variant point, that it either had been spreading for much longer, or was simply engineered in a lab to do so. A few of the studies also say that #3 is looking less and less likely.

So given the "where" and "what" that everyone agrees on now for the most part, the new "when" info, and what looks to be the limiting of the "how", the picture is getting clearer. And given the when, the spike protein, and the "coincidental" location of the Wuhan lab and that it's a known that they play with bats with coronavirus.... well, Occam's razor. And then the fact we know China is lying about a bunch of details..... I know what Vegas odds would be at this point.
 

PerthDomer

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Testing serum samples of people in hospitals in the months before the outbreak revealed no antibodies for COVID. That means it wasn't widespread at that point. If you test people south of Wuhan for coronaviruses not known to infect humans a few percent are usually positive. There's constant human/bat interaction in that area. What we've seen going back with COVID is continued development of the spike protein to bind the ACE receptor more tightly. Every time this happens the virus gets better at spreading and more deadly on a per person infected basis. Interestingly the COVID Italy got was a more infectious version than the type that flattened Wuhan (the mutation occurred in China but spread to Europe).

My guess is a much less infectious version had limited spread in the area. Someone with a more infectious variant sparked the spread in Wuhan.

Sewage in Italy shows it getting there in December 2019 not march https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

Chinese data in my reading suggests you saw a real hospital load in october, probably broke into people over the summer (though I'd guess less infectious initially)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...reading-in-china-in-august-harvard-study.html

There is nothing in the literature to suggest this was spreading before late summer/early fall in China and November in Europe/America.
 

Irish YJ

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Testing serum samples of people in hospitals in the months before the outbreak revealed no antibodies for COVID. That means it wasn't widespread at that point. If you test people south of Wuhan for coronaviruses not known to infect humans a few percent are usually positive. There's constant human/bat interaction in that area. What we've seen going back with COVID is continued development of the spike protein to bind the ACE receptor more tightly. Every time this happens the virus gets better at spreading and more deadly on a per person infected basis. Interestingly the COVID Italy got was a more infectious version than the type that flattened Wuhan (the mutation occurred in China but spread to Europe).

My guess is a much less infectious version had limited spread in the area. Someone with a more infectious variant sparked the spread in Wuhan.

Sewage in Italy shows it getting there in December 2019 not march https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

Chinese data in my reading suggests you saw a real hospital load in october, probably broke into people over the summer (though I'd guess less infectious initially)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...reading-in-china-in-august-harvard-study.html

There is nothing in the literature to suggest this was spreading before late summer/early fall in China and November in Europe/America.

Isn't the problem still China's lack of transparency and heavy handed control of everything "tested"?

I agree it was likely a more infectious variant that hit Wuhan. But if you agree with that, you have to account for the maturity of the strain, correct? Which would mean it was either somewhere else, OR, was simply manufactured in a lab. Everything I've read suggests that spike protein simply doesn't mutate that fast, nor will it mutate fast in a vacuum. In short, in natural conditions, it just takes time. If it were simply limited to the South over a long period of time, even the less contagious variant still would have spread over the time needed for the spike protein to mature.

In terms of the timing, I agree it was late summer per the study, but the "take" on the study suggests for those spikes to occur like that in late summer, it had to be jumping around much sooner prior to the noticeable upticks.

And back to the more infectious variants. The length of time it took for some of the other strains to become more mature (like the one hitting Brazil) now, leads me back to the thought it took a while for the original one in Wuhan to get noticed. All in all, It's just hard for me to trust China's version of anything, and I just can envision a matured variant quickly maturing in a vacuum in the South (or Wuhan). The easiest explanation is that it was manufactured, already matured, and escaped.
 

PerthDomer

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My guess is there was a strain with an R0 close to 1 and a mutation caused it to jump up. Probably in a rural area w poor spread dynamics. Some strain got lucky and mutated with a jump to China. What you see is every time it reaches selective pressure it mutates. Something with an r0 close to one hits that at a very small portion of population. So you'd pressure for mutations early at low population levels

Lab spread is possible. The going theory that makes sense isnt gain of function, but that covid's ancestor contaminated a human cell culture that had other experiments going and reproduced there. The nature vs lab arguement to me is more an occam's razor one. Lab is possible. But less likely.

I'd also mention Redfield got caught making up charts during the HIV crisis. He's not especially honest and usually has an agenda. He got made CDC director as a gift to hard core fundamentalist Christians.

And far as China goes they want to spread theories we did it and have an "Eastasia has always been at war with Eurasia" mindset. Any change in the story threatens their credibility and they're taking a low but present risk this goes back to their lab. Any transparency is lose lose to them whatever we find.
 

Irish YJ

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My guess is there was a strain with an R0 close to 1 and a mutation caused it to jump up. Probably in a rural area w poor spread dynamics. Some strain got lucky and mutated with a jump to China. What you see is every time it reaches selective pressure it mutates. Something with an r0 close to one hits that at a very small portion of population. So you'd pressure for mutations early at low population levels

Lab spread is possible. The going theory that makes sense isnt gain of function, but that covid's ancestor contaminated a human cell culture that had other experiments going and reproduced there. The nature vs lab arguement to me is more an occam's razor one. Lab is possible. But less likely.

I'd also mention Redfield got caught making up charts during the HIV crisis. He's not especially honest and usually has an agenda. He got made CDC director as a gift to hard core fundamentalist Christians.

And far as China goes they want to spread theories we did it and have an "Eastasia has always been at war with Eurasia" mindset. Any change in the story threatens their credibility and they're taking a low but present risk this goes back to their lab. Any transparency is lose lose to them whatever we find.

So I think at this point, do you think, as you said, some strain got lucky, or the lab got unlucky. And then there's the potential that a country that we know can be nefarious, purposefully engineered it, and got unlucky.

However you slice it, there's enough other BS from China (lack of transparency, clear misleading activity, silencing of their own folks) to lay a lot of blame at their doorstep even if this was an "accident". And it's pretty clear the WHO has carried a lot of water.
 

IrishLion

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Talk to us tomorrow lol

I had a minor, annoying headache yesterday that lasted most of the day, felt a little foggy, and was generally exhausted. After an afternoon nap, followed by an early bedtime, I’m all set lol.

Fully vaccinated and ready to go see ‘Godzilla vs Kong’ in an ACTUAL movie theater... though it’s my understanding that I still have to wear a mask everywhere for fear of carrying the virus, even though I should be personally protected now.
 

PerthDomer

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So I think at this point, do you think, as you said, some strain got lucky, or the lab got unlucky. And then there's the potential that a country that we know can be nefarious, purposefully engineered it, and got unlucky.

However you slice it, there's enough other BS from China (lack of transparency, clear misleading activity, silencing of their own folks) to lay a lot of blame at their doorstep even if this was an "accident". And it's pretty clear the WHO has carried a lot of water.

For population spread you need a mutation for virulence and location in a spot for super spreaders. The lab exists in Wuhan because it sits next to the highest density of bats/coronaviruses in Asia. Blaming it on the lab due to proximity is like blaming to police in Compton for a shooting because a lot if police patrol the area. The police have a presence there because there are a lot of shootings.

The reason we don't think it was engineered is mutations seem randomly distributed across the genome from its closest cousin and we don't have the tech to engineer a virulent pathogen from scratch and hide that signature.
 

Irish YJ

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For population spread you need a mutation for virulence and location in a spot for super spreaders. The lab exists in Wuhan because it sits next to the highest density of bats/coronaviruses in Asia. Blaming it on the lab due to proximity is like blaming to police in Compton for a shooting because a lot if police patrol the area. The police have a presence there because there are a lot of shootings.

The reason we don't think it was engineered is mutations seem randomly distributed across the genome from its closest cousin and we don't have the tech to engineer a virulent pathogen from scratch and hide that signature.

Right now, 60 mins of all shows is completing ripping China and the WHO. Calling the investigation complete BS in that China provided most of the "study" and had veto power over everything. The expert they are talking to says there is no evidence of earlier outbreaks near the caves or animal farms. Declassified info shows people from the lab were infected early, and the military was tied in to the lab during the time. Also, the Chinese lab did studies on the receptors and engineering lol.

And BTW, it's a 1000 miles from the bat caves to Wuhan (previous comment you made on proximity). The animal farms are closer, but not the caves.
 

PerthDomer

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Wuhan is a city larger than NY. There is a lot of countryside around it. There's a reason actual practicing virologists strongly favor the nature hypothesis. Lab or not China absolutely screwed the pooch at this.
 

Irish YJ

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Wuhan is a city larger than NY. There is a lot of countryside around it. There's a reason actual practicing virologists strongly favor the nature hypothesis. Lab or not China absolutely screwed the pooch at this.

Just saying, some of the points you brought up earlier, are not tracking with a lot of things said. Like the mutating in a smaller area (they said there is no evidence near the caves and farms), and in general, the proximity of Wuhan to the bat caves.

I'm not adamant either way about it being potentially engineered. If I had to bet, I'd say it was natural, but natural in the lab (and escaped). The fact they found military ties to the lab at the time, and that they were studying how to mutate the receptors, is enough to keep ones mind open to the engineered narrative. And the fact lab workers are now known to have been infected just keeps adding credence to what was once called a crazy conspiracy theory (lab escape, not engineered)

But yes, I agree, whatever happened, China gang banged the pooch. What is as disappointing to me as that, is the behavior of the WHO.

I also find it hilarious that 60 minutes is now changing course. I guarantee pre-election, they never would have is bashed the WHO or been open to the lab pathway, as it supported Trump's narrative at the time. The hypocrisy is expected, but still hilarious.
 

PerthDomer

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Just saying, some of the points you brought up earlier, are not tracking with a lot of things said. Like the mutating in a smaller area (they said there is no evidence near the caves and farms), and in general, the proximity of Wuhan to the bat caves.

I'm not adamant either way about it being potentially engineered. If I had to bet, I'd say it was natural, but natural in the lab (and escaped). The fact they found military ties to the lab at the time, and that they were studying how to mutate the receptors, is enough to keep ones mind open to the engineered narrative. And the fact lab workers are now known to have been infected just keeps adding credence to what was once called a crazy conspiracy theory (lab escape, not engineered)

But yes, I agree, whatever happened, China gang banged the pooch. What is as disappointing to me as that, is the behavior of the WHO.

I also find it hilarious that 60 minutes is now changing course. I guarantee pre-election, they never would have is bashed the WHO or been open to the lab pathway, as it supported Trump's narrative at the time. The hypocrisy is expected, but still hilarious.

It's the 1st place that got a BSL 4 lab because it's the closest city to the bat coronavirus centers not at risk for hurricane/natural disasters that could lose contain. It also happens to be a major trade center people from those provinces travel through a lot. The issue for lab vs. Natural is it implies strategies going forward on pathogen research. If you think these labs are causing pandemics you'd shut them down (some of ours have had safety breach citations in the past. Not uncommon and a sign inspectors are doing their jobs) if you think nature is pushing these (7 million people estimated to be infected with zoonotic coronaviruses yearly by some estimates) you're pushing more aggressive lab research.

The scary thing is, India, latin america, sub saharan africa, and other SE asian countries tries are hot spots for coronaviruses. Coronaviruses all have age predilections for severe disease ( SARS had a 10% mortality rate, killed 0 under 25) so they fly under the radar in younger populations (see india, sub saharan africa). A lot of these countries are total clown shows (see brazil, lots of african countries). There is a huge risk the next pandemic flies under the radar and seeds the world with something more deadly/contagious
 

PerthDomer

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I'd also say this is a disaster for China geopolitically. It pushed Europe and other countries away from China, and due to their production abilities they'll be shut off from the world while they vaccinate people a year longer than us. If they wanted to seed the world with this there are better places than Wuhan (totally flattened that city) to start.
 

Irish YJ

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It's the 1st place that got a BSL 4 lab because it's the closest city to the bat coronavirus centers not at risk for hurricane/natural disasters that could lose contain. It also happens to be a major trade center people from those provinces travel through a lot. The issue for lab vs. Natural is it implies strategies going forward on pathogen research. If you think these labs are causing pandemics you'd shut them down (some of ours have had safety breach citations in the past. Not uncommon and a sign inspectors are doing their jobs) if you think nature is pushing these (7 million people estimated to be infected with zoonotic coronaviruses yearly by some estimates) you're pushing more aggressive lab research.

The scary thing is, India, latin america, sub saharan africa, and other SE asian countries tries are hot spots for coronaviruses. Coronaviruses all have age predilections for severe disease ( SARS had a 10% mortality rate, killed 0 under 25) so they fly under the radar in younger populations (see india, sub saharan africa). A lot of these countries are total clown shows (see brazil, lots of african countries). There is a huge risk the next pandemic flies under the radar and seeds the world with something more deadly/contagious

That lab, IIRC, wasn't known for it's tightness. Pretty sure it was WAPO that published diplomatic cables prior to the pandemic (I think 2017 or 2018) where officials were raising a lot of concerns about the safety of the lab. And I think I recall some of the mentions were specifically about bat testing, along with general concerns about protocol.

So alarms were sounded, and no shut down. IMO, China does what it wants to do. It was the only L4 lab, and they weren't shutting it down.

Purely my opinion, but any country with wet markets is a clown show. And any country with a sloppy L4 lab right next door to a wet market is a circus with a clown show.
 

PerthDomer

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That lab, IIRC, wasn't known for it's tightness. Pretty sure it was WAPO that published diplomatic cables prior to the pandemic (I think 2017 or 2018) where officials were raising a lot of concerns about the safety of the lab. And I think I recall some of the mentions were specifically about bat testing, along with general concerns about protocol.

So alarms were sounded, and no shut down. IMO, China does what it wants to do. It was the only L4 lab, and they weren't shutting it down.

Purely my opinion, but any country with wet markets is a clown show. And any country with a sloppy L4 lab right next door to a wet market is a circus with a clown show.

People think China has an iron clad grip over their population and they do to a point. The deal is they deliver increased prosperity over time. When they've tried to shut these down people come close to revolt because it's a really cheap source of food. They've wanted to shut wet markets down but are actually scared of pissing their people off.

If China had an actual recession I think we'd quickly see how unstable their political system actually is.

We've also had safety violations at our labs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/84978860

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/05/28/biolabs-pathogens-location-incidents/26587505/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/biosecurity-in-question-at-us-germ-labs/
 

Irish YJ

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People think China has an iron clad grip over their population and they do to a point. The deal is they deliver increased prosperity over time. When they've tried to shut these down people come close to revolt because it's a really cheap source of food. They've wanted to shut wet markets down but are actually scared of pissing their people off.

If China had an actual recession I think we'd quickly see how unstable their political system actually is.

We've also had safety violations at our labs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/84978860

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/05/28/biolabs-pathogens-location-incidents/26587505/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/biosecurity-in-question-at-us-germ-labs/

I don't really see how our labs have anything to do with the Wuhan issues. In short, we're talking about how the virus got out in China. US labs are really relevant. Wuhan was obviously a big enough concern for intl alarms to be triggered.

And I'm not really buying China is vulnerable or afraid of their people. I was very close for over a decade with friends/neighbors that fled in the 80s, and another close friend that migrated in the 90s. And I'm not-so-close friends of several who migrated to Belize in the last 10-15 years. China has come a long way in improving poverty, but at the same time conditions were horrible for a very long time, and still are for some. Heck, they still suppress their own people, re-educate religious populations, and constantly bully certain areas and populations (not to mention HK). That doesn't track as vulnerable. It's heavy handed authoritarianism. If they had a recession, they'd just blame the US or someone else, and tighten their grip. And if they wanted get rid of wet markets, they could simply set up low cost processing plants. Heck, if they can do everything else for dirt cheap, getting a little more organized around their food sources isn't going to start a civil war.
 

PerthDomer

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The trade their populace has made is freedom for prosperity. There have been signs of discord in the midst of 10% GDP growth in the past. If things go south it'd be risky because the hard(er) liners might take control and saber rattle to improve public opinion. But the regime definitely fears instability. My point with our labs is the level of safety violations there aren't crazy high in the scheme of things. Safety violation doesnt imply obviously leaked a new virus.

Also as to designing the virus... no one really knows why this virus causes severe disease after viral load declines. The reason this spread like wild fire and SARS didn't is that SARS spread more the sicker you got. No one knows how to build a virus that does that and you'd need a ton of people to test on to figure out if you were getting that result. That's why Redfield isn't alleging they designed the thing intentionally. No one's smart enough to do that yet. Additionally every mutation that worsens infectiousness thus far has increased mortality. If they really wanted to wreak havoc they would have released b.1.1.7 or P.1 from the get go. But the strain that torched wuhan wasn't even as bad as what got to Italy.
 

PerthDomer

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Here's a pretty good article that lays out why it wasn't engineered and why it didn't develop in lab tissue. How the pangolins theory came about and is wrong and a pretty good proposed mechanism for development with real world implications for how to disrupt spread/creation of these events (stop population movement into areas with high zoonotic diversity we haven't mucked with before. Amazon, frontier rainforest etc.)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156713482100109X
 

Irish#1

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People think China has an iron clad grip over their population and they do to a point. The deal is they deliver increased prosperity over time. When they've tried to shut these down people come close to revolt because it's a really cheap source of food. They've wanted to shut wet markets down but are actually scared of pissing their people off.

If China had an actual recession I think we'd quickly see how unstable their political system actually is.

We've also had safety violations at our labs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/84978860

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/05/28/biolabs-pathogens-location-incidents/26587505/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/biosecurity-in-question-at-us-germ-labs/

We're getting away from COVID, but China has a very strong grip over their people. You see and read what they want you to see and read. It's feast or famine over there. They are a long way from delivering prosperity.
 

notredomer23

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I think it's gonna be a bad 2-3 weeks in terms of cases and a slight increase in hospitalizations because of B.117. Vaccines and natural immunity will dominate it soon though.
 

Irish YJ

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The trade their populace has made is freedom for prosperity. There have been signs of discord in the midst of 10% GDP growth in the past. If things go south it'd be risky because the hard(er) liners might take control and saber rattle to improve public opinion. But the regime definitely fears instability. My point with our labs is the level of safety violations there aren't crazy high in the scheme of things. Safety violation doesnt imply obviously leaked a new virus.

Also as to designing the virus... no one really knows why this virus causes severe disease after viral load declines. The reason this spread like wild fire and SARS didn't is that SARS spread more the sicker you got. No one knows how to build a virus that does that and you'd need a ton of people to test on to figure out if you were getting that result. That's why Redfield isn't alleging they designed the thing intentionally. No one's smart enough to do that yet. Additionally every mutation that worsens infectiousness thus far has increased mortality. If they really wanted to wreak havoc they would have released b.1.1.7 or P.1 from the get go. But the strain that torched wuhan wasn't even as bad as what got to Italy.

All govs are weary of of discord. That doesn't mean China is afraid to do the right thing. If anything, I just don't see China caring much about doing the right thing. They're primary focus is on accumulating power on a global level, and maintaining control locally. They've been visibly ruthless at both.

Again, not saying I'm high on the idea of an engineered virus. It doesn't have to be engineered to have escaped.

As far as US labs, irrelevant. We don't see international alarms of concern being set off by other advanced nations like the alarms on China. I worked at the same business park (Century Center) as the CDC HQ (ATF and other big acrs there too) in the early 2000s. I have zero idea what the internal protocols were/are, but I can tell you the general populace here believes they are both super hi-tech and strict about stuff. Fact or fiction, still irrelevant. And it's not sitting next to a wet market either. There are a few international markets not to far on Buford Hwy and elsewhere lol. I am a huge fan of the largest INTL market, whish is not to far from me.
 

Irish YJ

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[TWEET]https://twitter.com/bryanrbeal/status/1376542784551849990?s=21[/TWEET]

Yup. I mentioned that above. There's an article out there too that talks about the military involvement at the time.

Haven't read the article you posted, but also saw where they destroyed all the samples as well. They did the same at a few hospitals IIRC (destroying samples and records).

It's just getting harder and harder to believe this wasn't a huge screw up. You simply don't destroy docs, samples, and silence people if there is not a screw up.


Through the entire "investigation", China is actually the one doing the most investigating and simply providing info. They also had veto power over who was involved. The WHO defending the whole thing is a freaking joke.
 

PerthDomer

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[TWEET]https://twitter.com/bryanrbeal/status/1376542784551849990?s=21[/TWEET]

Mike Pompeo says a lot of stuff. I'd like to actually see the intelligence. Remember when China was interfering to help Biden until the report got released and it turns out they sat the election out?

Pompeo's route to the presidency is to make the conflict with China culture war, culture that market, then nab evangelicals. He's in Iowa campaigning already.
 

Irish YJ

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Mike Pompeo says a lot of stuff. I'd like to actually see the intelligence. Remember when China was interfering to help Biden until the report got released and it turns out they sat the election out?

Pompeo's route to the presidency is to make the conflict with China culture war, culture that market, then nab evangelicals. He's in Iowa campaigning already.

Meh. I'm sure enough folks have seen the intelligence that this would have been quickly shot down.

And given WAPO's political leanings (not to mention 60 mins), it's very hard to make some conspiracy theory out of this revolving around Pompeo lol. If there's any conspiracy that's more likely, is that all the sources that are typically left leaning, were reporting the opposite pre-election and now are starting to pile on China. Why is that?
 

Irish#1

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Mike Pompeo says a lot of stuff. I'd like to actually see the intelligence. Remember when China was interfering to help Biden until the report got released and it turns out they sat the election out?

Pompeo's route to the presidency is to make the conflict with China culture war, culture that market, then nab evangelicals. He's in Iowa campaigning already.

Curious as to why your defending the Chinese government? Destroying documents and samples wasn't accidental.
 

IrishLax

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[TWEET]https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1378440332795338755?s=20[/TWEET]

Canada is jelly
 

Irish YJ

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Irish YJ

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Curious as to why your defending the Chinese government? Destroying documents and samples wasn't accidental.

It's really interesting that all the left leaning media sites are doing a 180 on this. NPR just jumped on the pile the other day. I get why they carried water for China early during the election cycle, but it's interesting to see that most seem to be changing their tune now. Guessing the evidence is mounting and they want to act like they were on the correct side. Leak from the lab, or not, there's a ton of blame that points directly to China. It's more and more apparent that they kept things quiet for months. And like you said, there's just no way to excuse away destroying samples and documents. Only one reason to do that...

As far as the previous comments on Pompeo trying to create a culture war, IMO that's just plain silly. Many other countries have been far more critical of China. Heck, the UK has been trading blows with them lately. And not sure where Perth is, but Australia just announced they are joining in on sanctions against China. Even if you ignore COVID, their human rights record is pretty clear. And their buying up influence globally is there for all to see. I guess some choose to put their blinders on.

Purely my opinion, but it's embarrassing the way US companies, and US media has carried water for China for so long. The NBA especially. The hypocrisy is mind bending.
 
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