COVID-19

Legacy

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Weneone,

Thanks for the response. You obviously took the time to articulate yours. I initially responded to someone who said there was no playbook. There was. I provided them with the first in 2005 and signed into law in 2006. I want to be careful about the politics of this since that is in another board.

I did not say "everyone" knew, but in fact pointed out that many Admin officials were not aware of the "playbook". As far as your statement, "Reference to how blatantly obvious this was? I'm not disagreeing that there shouldn't be a a plan, and it shouldn't be followed. But what is the initiation event? What triggers the plan into action is what I'm asking." Is the plan you are referring to something independent of those I linked?

The first federal responsibility in that is to keep it from reaching the U.S. That is dependent on working with WHO and relying on data from other countries. China supplied the genome in late Jan. It was probably in the U.S. in mid-Dec.

The CDC wanted their own antibody testing. That was ready when? The testing has now been shown to be 50% accurate. As I'm sure you know, testing wasn't widespread. Was it available for NYC to make decisions on all their suspected cases to collect the U.S. data on prevalence? Is that what you want? We're talking past each other then.

Here is the WHO decision timeline and when China reported to them and including the Public Health Emergency declaration on Jan 31st. That is also the date when Azar declared a Public Health Emergency. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen
Navarro's memos warning his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion were on Jan 31st.

Congress requested the President to declare a national emergency to free up funding on Feb 9th. One of those, Nita Lowrey, was an intial sponsor of the Pandemic Act in 2005.

I responded to your point about Cuomo and NHs in spite of the point of my first response was the following the "playbook" from prior legislation and appropriations by Congress.

Otherwise, it seems that we agree on almost all of my points.
 
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ab2cmiller

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[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1266008620174540800[/TWEET]

Following a one-month lockdown, Denmark allowed children between two to 12 years back in day cares and schools on April 15. Based on five weeks’ worth of data, health authorities are now for the first time saying the move did not make the virus proliferate.
 
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ACamp1900

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I wonder if all this will get some to reconsider the slide towards more and more powerful, centralized government....
 

Irish YJ

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Out of curiousity, decided to look at the death rankings per capita of similar "Western" (EU and/or NATO) like countries that we can trust data from.... and then a look at some other per capita #s on those same countries, as well as travel data from China and other hotspots.

*used countries with min 100 deaths per M

Deaths per M
Belgium - 810
Spain - 580
UK - 558
Italy - 548
France - 439
Sweden - 423
Netherlands - 345
Ireland - 332
USA - 312
Switzerland - 222
Canada - 182
Portugal - 134
Germany - 102

Tests per M (Total Tests)
Portugal - 76,349 (778,698)
Spain - 76,071 (3,556,567)
Belgium - 70,678 (818,807)
Ireland - 66,049 (325,795)
Italy - 60,909 (3,683,144)
UK - 57,743 (3,918,079)
USA - 49,365 (16,331,312)
Germany - 47,194 (3,952,971)
Switzerland - 44,610 (385,822)
Canada - 42,036 (1,585,235)
Sweden - 23,659 ( 238,800)
France - 21,217 (1,384,633)
Netherlands - 20,003 (342,681)


Cases per M
Spain - 6,096
USA - 5,346
Ireland - 5,036
Belgium - 4,993
UK - 3,966
Italy - 3,832
Switzerland - 3,561
Sweden - 3,540
Portugal - 3,098
France - 2,854
Netherlands - 2,682
Canada - 2,347
Germany - 2,178


Tourism from China (most data from Wiki)
Italy - 3.2M (2018)
US - 3.0M (2018)
France -2.0M (2018)
Germany - 1.5M (2015)
Switzerland - 1.1M (2014)
Spain - 0.65M (2018)
Canada - 0.74M (2018)
UK - 0.39 (2018)
Nederlands - 0.36M (2017)
Portugal - 0.26M (2017)
Belgium - 0.15M (2016)
100K or less - Ireland, Sweden


Tourism to China (2018)
US - 2.5M
Canada - 0.85M
Germany - 0.64M
UK - 0.61M
France - 0.50M
Italy - 0.28M
Netherlands - 0.19M
Sweden - 0.11M
Switzerland - .07M
Portugal - 0.06M
Belgium/Spain/Ireland didn't make topXX

US Tourism from Hotspots (countries that are top 15 in visits to the US, and top 25 in total cases) - () is world rank in total cases

Canada (13) - 12.3M
UK (5) - 4.9M
Brazil (2) - 2.2M
Germany (8) - 2.1M
France (7) - 1.8M
India (9) - 1.4M
Spain (4) - 1.2M
Italy (6) - 1.1M
Nederlands (21) - 0.73M


I think Germany is a great case to look at given their #s.
 

Irish YJ

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Every day I’m hoping they’re done, every day I discover they’re not... <a href="https://t.co/a8srejg9ae">pic.twitter.com/a8srejg9ae</a></p>— ESSENTIAL Julia Song (@realjuliasong) <a href="https://twitter.com/realjuliasong/status/1256233215578320899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Irish YJ

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alexa, how long will coronavirus last? <a href="https://t.co/mGhzyiwvKj">pic.twitter.com/mGhzyiwvKj</a></p>— Eric 🇺🇸 (@ThatTrumpGuy) <a href="https://twitter.com/ThatTrumpGuy/status/1247672357570912258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

NDRock

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Reopening schools in Denmark did not worsen outbreak, data shows <a href="https://t.co/lsgnhju9Ix">https://t.co/lsgnhju9Ix</a> <a href="https://t.co/E28Ocq1wX9">pic.twitter.com/E28Ocq1wX9</a></p>— Reuters (@Reuters) <a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1266008620174540800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 28, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's great news. Been worried for the Fall as it seems likely kids will pass it on fairly easily. Hope that's not the case.
 

yankeehater

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That's great news. Been worried for the Fall as it seems likely kids will pass it on fairly easily. Hope that's not the case.

Actually studies show that children carry less of a viral load than adults. This is one of the reasons they are saying they don't show symptoms. The really good thing too is a lower viral load means they are not a strong source of transmission.

Also when the children returned to school in France, only 70 students out of 1.7 million tested positive.

You can google this info and read up. Pretty positive stuff in my opinion.
 

Irishize

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Irishize

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To your points:

1. It's a novel virus, so no, it's not like other diseases.
2. I wasn't addressing you or making specific reference to you (You're actually fairly open minded compared to some of the other posters.)
3. Should have put italics here, was making a point that the economy would not have been fine if there were no stay at home orders. Look at Feb for example of the markets tanking.
5. No need to project here. The reason why I don't post in that Trump thread is because any form of criticism is met with "never trumper". Enough on that subject.
6. Literally a couple pages back you can some posts with videos calling Fauci a political hack. Or there's the podcast with the guys talking about Fauci flip flopping around.

I know you like to say both sides are take part in smugness but literally only ever call out left leaning posters. It's fine, just own it. I lean left and I support the posters that share my views, and there's posters from the other side that I respect because they can articulate their points well.

The reason why people get so frustrated is because for the beginning of April (you can go back and look at like pages 55 to 58) people were chalking it up to being less than the flu. Go look back at Loomis and Sea Turtle's posts. That's why people get upset, you have people trying to post from their state or countries perspective and then in the midst of it you've got "Throw a mask on and get to work" or "Don't underestimate the flu".

Fair enough. I don’t have much to disagree w/ what you stated above. I would like to clarify, I was pointing out that like other diseases (catch all for cancer, CV, auto-immune, etc) that do have a mortality rate. But I’m splitting hairs. There’s just too much damn miscommunication via social media.
 

Irishize

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EZIbKPdWsAAyZHd
 

TorontoGold

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Fair enough. I don’t have much to disagree w/ what you stated above. I would like to clarify, I was pointing out that like other diseases (catch all for cancer, CV, auto-immune, etc) that do have a mortality rate. But I’m splitting hairs. There’s just too much damn miscommunication via social media.

Amen to that. Lot's of craziness out there, I appreciate you sourcing your posts with links and what not.
 

JurDocDuLac

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I fully understand the low probability of dying from Covid-19, as shown in the chart above.

The chance of dying from lung cancer (or rabies), spread across the US population, is very, very low, too.

But if you HAVE lung cancer (or rabies), then there is a MUCH higher probability of death. Rabies is virtually 100% once you show symptoms; with some forms of lung cancer it is 80-90% depending on the stage detected.

So, if you HAVE (test positive for) Covid-19, what is the probability that you will die?

The answer appears to be pretty high - about 17% probability you will die in the US.

Let´s work with solid numbers - what we really know.
USA (from worldometers, May 29)
Total infected overall - 1,792,893
Total Deaths - 104,526
Total Recovered - 519,296
Total Active Cases - 1,169,071
Serious/Critical Active Cases - 53,722

Look at it this way: Covid-19 is a tunnel. You enter it when you test positive, you are in there 10-20 days, and then you come out either recovered or dead.

Just want to know, right now, with the solid numbers we have (over 623,000 measured outcomes), what are your chances if you HAVE it, right now?

Using the only solid numbers we have today, 519,296 have recovered, 104,526 have died and 1,169,071 are still in the tunnel, outcome unknown (53,722 critical - a large % of those will die).

That is a 17% chance of death

The point is: You are not nearly as likely to contract cander or rabies as you are C-19. In fact, without a vaccine we are looking at about 60-70% of the US to get infected with C-19 over the next 18-24 months.

No other cause of death has that exposure rate. None. Chance of C-19 infection: 60-70% over the next many months

Many will not need a test (6 to 1, about - 13,000,000 million total infected estimate right now, with about 1,800,000 tested positive)

So my question is: Chance of death if you test positive today? 17%
 
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Circa

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WHO stated yesterday no need for healthy people to wear masks. LOL! I am sure they will change their minds again tomorrow. Not sure who flip flops more the CDC or the WHO with their claims and policies.

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-no-need-for-healthy-people-to-wear-face-masks-2020-4?op=1

Wearing a mask without real knowledge of how, when, and the appropriate disposal time compared to the actual benefits of wearing one everyday, everywhere, Is like asking teenagers/grown ass men to wear a condom. It's non-affective. Never will be.

In the past when we have witnessed Asians wearing masks It's not because of a virus. I have been very close to a few different nationalities.
From what I have been told, years ago... they wear masks because of SMOG! not a Political Virus and not even the typical cold. People just need to go somewhere other than their couch.
Drives me absolutely nuts to hear the propaganda. (I already feel semi-nuts)....

Here's a clip of Costco Kevin explaining his thoughts....



<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FSZ8IQX1nY4" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
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Circa

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Every day I’m hoping they’re done, every day I discover they’re not... <a href="https://t.co/a8srejg9ae">pic.twitter.com/a8srejg9ae</a></p>— ESSENTIAL Julia Song (@realjuliasong) <a href="https://twitter.com/realjuliasong/status/1256233215578320899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

From what I've heard, and my oldest son just broke his Fibula, the nurses are bored and have nothing to do.
I was In the ER yesterday, and today at the orthopedic surgeon. My son was essential, because breaking the Fibula normally Is a surgery type of break. He'll be getting surgery next week.
The Hospital was abnormally empty and very eery.

I say go nurses... They can't even supplement their income with strip clubs being non-essential....
 

Irish YJ

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From what I've heard, and my oldest son just broke his Fibula, the nurses are bored and have nothing to do.
I was In the ER yesterday, and today at the orthopedic surgeon. My son was essential, because breaking the Fibula normally Is a surgery type of break. He'll be getting surgery next week.
The Hospital was abnormally empty and very eery.

I say go nurses... They can't even supplement their income with strip clubs being non-essential....



The one on the right has more potential than Ben Koyack.

I'd like to see what's behind the mask, but mask-on, I'd smack it up, flip it, and rub it down.
oh no..............
 

ab2cmiller

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I fully understand the low probability of dying from Covid-19, as shown in the chart above.

The chance of dying from lung cancer (or rabies), spread across the US population, is very, very low, too.

But if you HAVE lung cancer (or rabies), then there is a MUCH higher probability of death. Rabies is virtually 100% once you show symptoms; with some forms of lung cancer it is 80-90% depending on the stage detected.

So, if you HAVE (test positive for) Covid-19, what is the probability that you will die?

The answer appears to be pretty high - about 17% probability you will die in the US.

Let´s work with solid numbers - what we really know.
USA (from worldometers, May 29)
Total infected overall - 1,792,893
Total Deaths - 104,526
Total Recovered - 519,296
Total Active Cases - 1,169,071
Serious/Critical Active Cases - 53,722

Look at it this way: Covid-19 is a tunnel. You enter it when you test positive, you are in there 10-20 days, and then you come out either recovered or dead.

Just want to know, right now, with the solid numbers we have (over 623,000 measured outcomes), what are your chances if you HAVE it, right now?

Using the only solid numbers we have today, 519,296 have recovered, 104,526 have died and 1,169,071 are still in the tunnel, outcome unknown (53,722 critical - a large % of those will die).

That is a 17% chance of death

The point is: You are not nearly as likely to contract cander or rabies as you are C-19. In fact, without a vaccine we are looking at about 60-70% of the US to get infected with C-19 over the next 18-24 months.

No other cause of death has that exposure rate. None. Chance of C-19 infection: 60-70% over the next many months

Many will not need a test (6 to 1, about - 13,000,000 million total infected estimate right now, with about 1,800,000 tested positive)

So my question is: Chance of death if you test positive today? 17%

So many problems with your assumptions that it's hard to know even where to start. So I will boil it down to this one simple question. Given that there are over 330 million people in the US, are you really suggesting that 60% of those people will get it and 17 percent of those people that get it will die? That's over 33 million people dead based upon your assumptions. Really??
 

JurDocDuLac

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Nope, not at all, because many of 80% of the 60-70% of Americans who may be infected will be asymptomatic or not need testing.

But I am trying to figure it out for someone who has tested positive.

Look at the solid numbers - those who have gone through the tunnel result in 17% death.

Clearly that is not the percentage for the overall infected (an estimated 13 million with only 100,000 + deaths, 11 million who did not test), that is a much lower death rate.

But the point is:
A low percentage of Americans die of lung cancer.
But an high percentage of Americans who HAVE lung cancer die.

So if you have tested positive for C-19 , what chance do you have?

It is a serious question, for a real-life case.

Numbers say 17%.


If you can give me a better number and back it up with proven outcomes, GREAT!
 

Woneone

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I fully understand the low probability of dying from Covid-19, as shown in the chart above.

The chance of dying from lung cancer (or rabies), spread across the US population, is very, very low, too.

But if you HAVE lung cancer (or rabies), then there is a MUCH higher probability of death. Rabies is virtually 100% once you show symptoms; with some forms of lung cancer it is 80-90% depending on the stage detected.

So, if you HAVE (test positive for) Covid-19, what is the probability that you will die?

The answer appears to be pretty high - about 17% probability you will die in the US.

Let´s work with solid numbers - what we really know.
USA (from worldometers, May 29)
Total infected overall - 1,792,893
Total Deaths - 104,526
Total Recovered - 519,296
Total Active Cases - 1,169,071
Serious/Critical Active Cases - 53,722

Look at it this way: Covid-19 is a tunnel. You enter it when you test positive, you are in there 10-20 days, and then you come out either recovered or dead.

Just want to know, right now, with the solid numbers we have (over 623,000 measured outcomes), what are your chances if you HAVE it, right now?

Using the only solid numbers we have today, 519,296 have recovered, 104,526 have died and 1,169,071 are still in the tunnel, outcome unknown (53,722 critical - a large % of those will die).

That is a 17% chance of death

The point is: You are not nearly as likely to contract cander or rabies as you are C-19. In fact, without a vaccine we are looking at about 60-70% of the US to get infected with C-19 over the next 18-24 months.

No other cause of death has that exposure rate. None. Chance of C-19 infection: 60-70% over the next many months

Many will not need a test (6 to 1, about - 13,000,000 million total infected estimate right now, with about 1,800,000 tested positive)

So my question is: Chance of death if you test positive today? 17%

First - Legacy - Thank you. You're a bigger person than I. Honestly , I struggle disassociating with online conversations. I still disagree with timing, the likelihood that decisions could have been made in the beginning of February is just not feasible, but the lack of a chain of command is an issue we can agree on (that is an intentional understatement. My fake online persona will allow only so many concessions).

That said - with regards to the post above, clean-up on isle "WTF?". These numbers are not in any way reflective of reality. I've been out all night, without a mask, drinking in rural Ohio, so hopefully I awake in the morning. If I do, I'd be happy to respond to this. But even in a drunken stupor, this post, with the stats, stuck out to me as completely wrong.
 

GATTACA!

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Nope, not at all, because many of 80% of the 60-70% of Americans who may be infected will be asymptomatic or not need testing.

But I am trying to figure it out for someone who has tested positive.

Look at the solid numbers - those who have gone through the tunnel result in 17% death.

Clearly that is not the percentage for the overall infected (an estimated 13 million with only 100,000 + deaths, 11 million who did not test), that is a much lower death rate.

But the point is:
A low percentage of Americans die of lung cancer.
But an high percentage of Americans who HAVE lung cancer die.

So if you have tested positive for C-19 , what chance do you have?

It is a serious question, for a real-life case.

Numbers say 17%.


If you can give me a better number and back it up with proven outcomes, GREAT!

No they don't. You're again conveniently leaving out the overwhelming number that are asymptomatic. Just because they don't know they have it doesn't mean you can exclude them from your tunnel hypothetical. They went through the tunnel and didn't even know they were inside.
 

irishff1014

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It has been shown in the last 4 nights that everything is ok to be in large groups. Open everything up and lets move on.
 

Irishize

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It has been shown in the last 4 nights that everything is ok to be in large groups. Open everything up and lets move on.

It is ironic that in all of the hysteria and the reporting of it...no mention of social distancing, wearing of masks, or all this large number of gatherings leading to a spike in COVID-19 of epic proportions.
 

JurDocDuLac

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You are right, it is clearly it is not 17% for all infected.

There is, as you correctly say, a huge group, estimated at about 10-11 million or 80+%, who are/were asymptomatic or mild cases - but they generally do not test; no or low symptoms, you generally cannot get a test.

My question is: If you TEST POSITIVE (ie- among the 1,800,000 positives, not the 11 million asymptomatic/mild), what is your survival rate?

Not the overall survival or infection rate, just among the tested positive (and in this case, with symptoms sufficient for a test).

For C-19 we have some very solid US numbers

Total Tested Positive - 1,792,893
Total Deaths - 104,526
Total Recovered - 519,296
Total Active Cases - 1,169,071 (no outcome yet)

A sample size of 600,000 definite outcomes in a population of 1,800,000 positives is one-third, statistically very sure.

And that shows a 17% death rate of those who HAVE (tested positive for) C-19.

I hope I am wrong, but just for a person in that 1,800,000 group of positives right now, what is the survival rate?
 

Legacy

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It's worth updating the COVID numbers for the USS Roosevelt and selected prison populations.

USS Roosevelt - 1,150 sailors tested positive. There are 4600 in the crew. Some turned positive after they reached Guam. All had been quaranteened. One sailor died. Three others were hospitalized. In a prior report (600 positive), 350 were asymptomatic or about 60%. The Roosevelt had been at sea more than two weeks before the first symptomatic patient. Mass testing was done before the sailors disembarked. One sailor died. Three more were hospitalized. Some who were quaranteened but negative turned positive after a two quaranteen, so the Navy extended the quaranteen to three weeks.

In four state prison systems — Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic. The biggest outbreak in prisons has been in Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms. At Marion, four have died with total deaths in all Ohio prisons at seventeen.

Of course, false positives would not be the result of poor technique. These are subgroups with the prison population with a small exposure to the outside world than the Roosevelt, asymptomatic spread may be driving the contagion throughout the world. The assumption could also be that these two subgroups are also healthier, more fit and with less chronic conditions though smoking is more prevalent in prisons.

Totally the positive cases from the Roosevelt and Marion (3450), five have died at this point in time.
 
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NDRock

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You are right, it is clearly it is not 17% for all infected.

There is, as you correctly say, a huge group, estimated at about 10-11 million or 80+%, who are/were asymptomatic or mild cases - but they generally do not test; no or low symptoms, you generally cannot get a test.

My question is: If you TEST POSITIVE (ie- among the 1,800,000 positives, not the 11 million asymptomatic/mild), what is your survival rate?

Not the overall survival or infection rate, just among the tested positive (and in this case, with symptoms sufficient for a test).

For C-19 we have some very solid US numbers

Total Tested Positive - 1,792,893
Total Deaths - 104,526
Total Recovered - 519,296
Total Active Cases - 1,169,071 (no outcome yet)

A sample size of 600,000 definite outcomes in a population of 1,800,000 positives is one-third, statistically very sure.

And that shows a 17% death rate of those who HAVE (tested positive for) C-19.

I hope I am wrong, but just for a person in that 1,800,000 group of positives right now, what is the survival rate?

I’m confused how you got to 17%. Isn’t it closer to 6%?
 
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