COVID-19

NOLAIrish

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Appreciate your insights - you just made it sound like this data was regularly monitored in real time. Sounds as if the groundwork was not in place to use the best data for the best result, ASAFP - not shocking.

Sorry for the confusion. I will say -- it is being monitored and used in real time, just not for the purpose of determining early spread. It's being used by many states and insurers for disease surveillance, hotspotting, supplies/personnel staging, etc. But those are qualitatively different from systematic investigation by research epidemiologists, which is what you'd need for a study of when the disease first reached an area. What I was trying to get across was the the data are there and it'd be easier to start with that than ramping up autopsies (not the least problem of which is the potential exposure of examiners to the disease) when we get to the point of having the bandwidth to look into the "when" of this thing.
 

Irishize

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Where will Checkpoint Charlie be located?
#NewEast Berlin

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This new workplace monitoring tool issues an alert when anyone is less than six feet apart. Amazon is also using similar software to monitor the distances between their warehouse staff. <a href="https://t.co/aUiVgUMWg5">https://t.co/aUiVgUMWg5</a> <a href="https://t.co/hscudU77u2">pic.twitter.com/hscudU77u2</a></p>— MIT Technology Review (@techreview) <a href="https://twitter.com/techreview/status/1253040931290349569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Legacy

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An itemization of the regulatory changes to the Medicaid program from the National Law Review:

Medicaid Program Response to COVID-19
Tuesday, April 7, 2020

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) and declaration of a Public Health Emergency (PHE) by the Secretary of Health and Human Services due to the Novel Coronavirus have each had a significant impact on the Medicaid program. The PHE gives the Secretary expanded opportunity to waive requirements of Title XIX of the Social Security Act at a rapid pace under section 1135. FFCRA increased the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) 6.2 percentage points across all states and territories who are eligible to receive the increase. Increased FMAP is available for claims paid from January 1, 2020 through and including the last day of the quarter when the PHE is lifted. Requirements for increased FMAP and a discussion of the 1135 waivers being requested by Medicaid programs and granted by the Secretary are discussed in greater detail below. (cont)

A study by Health Management Associates (HMA), a national health care research and consulting firm, projects that Medicaid enrollment, which has been on a downward trend for ten years, could increase by 11 to 23 million, with a potential jump from 71 million enrolled to 94 million as those unemployed lose their employer sponsored insurance. Those unemployed and lost coverage but are not enrolling in Medicaid may have alternatives through their family, some states opening their Medicaid expansion enrollments, etc.

Medicaid Nearing ‘Eye Of The Storm’ As Newly Unemployed Look For Coverage
 
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notredomer23

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Preliminary results from NY antibody study are in. 21.2% of NYC showed antibodies. 13.9% state wide. Would mean 10X more than numbers showing.
 

InKellyWeTrust

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Interesting article in Science about how SARS-CoV-2 attacks the body:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes#

Again, the speed of the current research is astounding. I believe it was InKellyWeTrust who first cited the NY intesivist's claim that this was a blood-disease more than a pure respiratory one. It looks like everyone could be right.

What are your thoughts, doc?

I read this article a couple days ago. It is well written and makes great observations.

One of the most interesting aspects of COVID 19 is the myriad of presentations of the virus. There are now reports and case series outlining nearly every organ system with some percentage of involvement, even to the extent of being the chief complaint when visiting an office or ED. Pneumonia, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmias, headaches, seizures, conjunctivitis, rashes, GI symptoms, kidney failure, hepatitis, etc. Literally every major organ system is listed with potential involvement when you look at the literature.

There are a few key things to consider with the above in mind:
1) It is well known the ACE2 receptor is found on cells throughout the epithelial lining of the respiratory tract. This is the main receptor the virus attaches to and enter through to infect human cells. This receptor also happens to be ubiquitous on vasculature throughout the body. This is a pretty terrifying feature of this virus. It means it can literally attach and infect cells lining the blood vessels in any organ of the body.
2) Interestingly, elevated D-dimer (a marker of blood clotting) has been shown to have the single highest odds ratio of death among COVID patients presenting to the ED. Higher than hypoxia. Higher than any blood count, etc.
3) So you have ubiquitous receptors all throughout the body in blood vessels and known significant mortality in patients with elevated markers of increased blood clotting. There is obviously something more to this virus than a respiratory infection, even one as significant as ARDs.
4) Add to this the idea of a "cytokine storm" in critically ill patients. The basic understanding here is the body's immune system goes into hyperdrive, pumping out pro-inflammatory mediators throughout the body without much regulatory counter measures. Some believe this is causing more damage than the virus itself. Interestingly, there is literature that confirms higher IL-6 levels and lower lymphocyte levels at baseline in elderly adults. IL-6 is one of the main pro-inflammatory cytokines. Lymphocytes are critical in both humoral and innate immune responses to viruses. Lymphocytopenia has been shown to have a high odds ratio of death in initial studies as well (just not as high as elevated d-dimer). These factors certainly have some role in the relative morbidity and mortality of the elderly with this virus. Especially given the early positive data on monoclonal antibodies to IL6 such as tocilizumab.
5) So you have this virus which can attach to the lining of any blood vessel, which also likely triggers an aggressive local and systemic immune response. This environment is likely very pro-thrombotic. Diffuse intravascular coagulation (DIC) has similar features - its something found in patients with overwhelming sepsis. But it appears patients with COVID are not bleeding, just clotting. DIC patients have both. I can't say why this is, but the diffuse clotting appears to be a very legitimate feature of severe COVID and likely the driving force (along with cytokine storm) behind the multiorgan failure you get at end stage COVID
6) Confounding all this is previous literature on similar viruses such as MERs and SARs1. They didn't appear to behave similarly. But naturally a coronavirus with similar features, at least at surface level, has been treated similarly by physicians because we don't know any better...yet. We are now being flooded with literature, data, and studies daily. It is difficult to analyze and synthesize all this information in real time. But I will say there seems to be a shift in the treatment paradigm for this disease over the last couple weeks.
 

Wild Bill

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China needs to be able to glow in the dark by the time all is said and done here.

You think we're making a nuclear armed nation with over a billion people being governed by a regime willing to sidestep morality glow in the dark?

We've been occupying Afghanistan for two decades and can't bring them to heel, and somehow we're going to push the Chinese around? Don't hold your breath.
 

NOLAIrish

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NOLA is referring (I think anyway...LOL) to claims data from insurance companies. It’s probably one of the better indicators right now depending on how broad the net is cast.

Yep, claims data and data from ADT (admissions, discharges, transfers) feeds. Think of claims data as "here's what I did, pay me for it," and ADT as "I have your insured in my facility, here's what's going on."
 

Irishize

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Yep, claims data and data from ADT (admissions, discharges, transfers) feeds. Think of claims data as "here's what I did, pay me for it," and ADT as "I have your insured in my facility, here's what's going on."

Good description.
 

NDdomer2

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Preliminary results from NY antibody study are in. 21.2% of NYC showed antibodies. 13.9% state wide. Would mean 10X more than numbers showing.

a couple pages back didnt someone post a link that antibody testing is flawed and that for every 1 true positive you had 1 false positive. That's really going to skew some numbers.
 

PerthDomer

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IF the test is good this is the 1st valid study (in nyc and suburbs not upstate) with real prevalence your false positives are lower as a proportion. Remember a lot of excess deaths are occurring in NY that are likely COVID and that a few of the tests are likely false positive. Also remember that some hospitalized patients yet to die got sick a month ago.

My guess is that we'll find an infection fatality rate between 0.5% and 1%. In crisis standards of care we saw in NYC that probably doubles. If you get italy/great Britain bad it goes up more. The reason we're doing this isn't the 0.5% who die if the hospital is open. It's the other 1% plus who die because we don't have resources.
 

dublinirish

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So… The top recipient of COVID small business relief is a real estate investment firm run by a major Trump donor who hired two extremely well connected Trump lobbyists <a href="https://t.co/QWtxsxPwav">https://t.co/QWtxsxPwav</a></p>— Sam Stein (@samstein) <a href="https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1253379115463385088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

ab2cmiller

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Over 21 freaking percent of those people sampled in New York City had antibodies.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Assuming there's a slight lag between when these tests were conducted and when the results were published, and taking everything else at face value, we'd be looking at a ~13-15x undercount in NYC and maybe more like ~8-10x in NY outside NYC.</p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1253364302305771523?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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InKellyWeTrust

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a couple pages back didnt someone post a link that antibody testing is flawed and that for every 1 true positive you had 1 false positive. That's really going to skew some numbers.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/ar...-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

This article has some great tables and explanations of false positive/false negatives and positive and negative predictive values of antibody tests. I believe the example mentioned by a previous post (NOLA I believe) used Abbott's very high sensitivity and specificity numbers. Prevalence of a disease in a population has a large impact on the positive predictive value of a test. The higher the prevalence, the lower the false positive rate and thus higher the positive predictive value. The false positive rate is the most critical aspect of the antibody test because you don't want to falsely tell someone they have antibodies.

In other words, based off the randomized sample of NYC, if its assumed 20% of the population has antibodies. The false positive rate would be low and thus the positive predictive value high. To use NOLA's example - if 10,000 people are tested at a prevalence of 20% with a sensitivity of 100% (which is kind of hard to believe) and a specificity of 99% you would generate 2,000 true positives to 80 false positives. The positive predictive value would be 96%. Contrast this to a prevalence in a population of 1% as NOLA mentioned. 10,000 samples would generate 100 true positives and 100 false positives for a PPV of just 50%.
 

ab2cmiller

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Brilliant. What could go wrong.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">He claims he didn’t know about it. <a href="https://t.co/qCJbxqwRh1">https://t.co/qCJbxqwRh1</a></p>— Brit Hume (@brithume) <a href="https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1253138665955565569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Mullin had another complaint, too — that the media never asked the governor about an order mandating that nursing homes admit and readmit patients who tested positive for the coronavirus, despite the extraordinary number of deaths among the elderly.

That drought ended Monday when The Post’s Bernadette Hogan asked about the policy at *Cuomo’s daily briefing. His *answer was stunning.

“That’s a good question. I don’t know,” the governor said.

He turned to Howard Zucker, the state health commissioner, who confirmed the policy, saying “if you are positive, you should be admitted back to a nursing home. The necessary precautions will be taken to protect the other residents there.”
 

Sea Turtle

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You're a real solid human being. 99.9 percent of that population has absolutely zero responsibility in what goes on over there. How about don't post some like again. You can't "Make American Great again" When you behave like a Nazi.

Not to speak for him but I think he means the CCP. A lot of people say 'China' when they mean the CCP and their military. The same as 'Russia'.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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You're a real solid human being. 99.9 percent of that population has absolutely zero responsibility in what goes on over there. How about don't post some like again. You can't "Make American Great again" When you behave like a Nazi.

Nazis interned their citizens. The last US president to do that was...FDR.
 

Irishize

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Remember the Obama shutdown in 2013 and how it was THE WORST THING EVER that 800,000 federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, while another 1.3 million continued working, unpaid, with promised back pay?<br><br>Yeah, about that... 5 weeks, 27 MILLION jobs GONE.<br><br>Angry, yet?</p>— Dam Yankee ⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@_Dam_Yankee_) <a href="https://twitter.com/_Dam_Yankee_/status/1253490010218811393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

DogDaysIrish

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And Trump wants people to drink bleach...Think about it people. Love you Irish!!! Fans and especially the team. I'll always follow the boys and their endeavors on and off the field. This site isn't for me anymore. And that's coming from a former mod. I wish you all well. Love the irish, but completely disagree with the politics and religious crap, assuming that everyone is a catholic who is expected to fall in line with the company line. The Left v. Right shit is becoming insufferable. Wanna destroy a site....Take it to CNN or Fox News. This a site for Notre Dame football, and we all know how the church looks at certain things. Keep it in your house. Don't force it down the throats of everyone else. Be well
 

Irish YJ

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And Trump wants people to drink bleach...Think about it people. Love you Irish!!! Fans and especially the team. I'll always follow the boys and their endeavors on and off the field. This site isn't for me anymore. And that's coming from a former mod. I wish you all well. Love the irish, but completely disagree with the politics and religious crap, assuming that everyone is a catholic who is expected to fall in line with the company line. The Left v. Right shit is becoming insufferable. Wanna destroy a site....Take it to CNN or Fox News. This a site for Notre Dame football, and we all know how the church looks at certain things. Keep it in your house. Don't force it down the throats of everyone else. Be well

Sorry, but with all the respect in the world, just don't click on the thread.
 

SonofOahu

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So how long do you think this has been in the states?

Both flu tests came back negative. I had a fever for 2 days and for four days i was sleeping 16 hours at a time. Cough only lasted a day. I was given a z pack, amoxicillin, and told to stay home for a week. The weird thing was, i felt fine. I was just exhausted.

Where in the country do you live? While possible, mid January is exceedingly unlikely anywhere. Even in Seattle, the flu study was barely picking it up after then.

I'm guessing in January. That being said, the flu season was really bad, and just because your test came back negative, that doesn't guarantee that you didn't have it (this applies to flu as well as COVID.)

I was texting with a friend and she said that they tested a patient 4x with the first three tests coming back negative, and the fourth finally showing positive. One thing with this wide-testing initiative is not just the shortage of supplies, it's the shortage of competent clinicians to do the testing.

These tests almost look like you're going to brain someone, and it doesn't feel pleasant. Anyone who is not a seasoned pro at doing the NP swab is probably going to have a fair amount of false negatives.
 
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