COVID-19

[TorontoGold]

There has not been a lot of panic around here since the original and early confusion. The overwhelming majority here are using common sense. And you really need to define "taking it serious". I consider taking it serious as staying home as much as possible, but not panicking. Most that I know fit that definition.

I'm in the burbs and people are acting responsible. I have seen some stories of inner city folks being stupid, as well as some rural folks being stupid. The rural folks, I can understand a bit, as they are impacted very little by the virus, yet have shuddered. The inner city folks not heading warnings is just beyond stupid though given the density.

I'm going overboard personally, in the case I need to get back to Indy for my mother. I'm not personally worried for my own health though. If my mother wasn't a factor, I'd almost hope I'd get it, and get through it.

Agree with you there.

Good to hear the suburbs are ok. I hope the low cases are from a lack of spread and not a lack of testing. Mayor of Savannah seems pretty pissed about the Gov's decision to open up early.

 

[Irishize]

There has not been a lot of panic around here since the original and early confusion. The overwhelming majority here are using common sense. And you really need to define "taking it serious". I consider taking it serious as staying home as much as possible, but not panicking. Most that I know fit that definition.

I'm in the burbs and people are acting responsible. I have seen some stories of inner city folks being stupid, as well as some rural folks being stupid. The rural folks, I can understand a bit, as they are impacted very little by the virus, yet have shuddered. The inner city folks not heading warnings is just beyond stupid though given the density.

I'm going overboard personally, in the case I need to get back to Indy for my mother. I'm not personally worried for my own health though. If my mother wasn't a factor, I'd almost hope I'd get it, and get through it.

A colleague at work said Albany has been hit pretty hard. He added that their hospital is on the brink of closing due to lack of funds. Any updates on that area?

 

[Irish YJ]

Agree with you there.

Good to hear the suburbs are ok. I hope the low cases are from a lack of spread and not a lack of testing. Mayor of Savannah seems pretty pissed about the Gov's decision to open up early.

I don't care for Kemp, but the Mayor of Savannah is a bleeding heart lib from NYC... I'm sure he'll be outraged and hate absolutely everything Kemp does regardless..

 

[Circa]

Good thing guys like him exist. It'll keep some of the wolves in the forest.



If the mainstream media would just start reporting the news instead of TMZ type stuff, maybe we all would understand whats going down.... #PentegonPapers

 

[Circa]

The whole Idea of testing Is going to be a test about things Americans can't fathom.
Kids will say yes; I want anything so my parents wont die.

Deep State in the background right now saying....


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[Irish YJ]

A colleague at work said Albany has been hit pretty hard. He added that their hospital is on the brink of closing due to lack of funds. Any updates on that area?

Albany is a SW GA city, and the county actually has more deaths (less cases though) than the ATL counties. I think close to 100 deaths. It's one of the most dense outbreaks in the S. The outbreak there is primarily blamed on the Proctor and Gamble factory there who makes toilet paper and other "essentials". The city is mostly African Americans, and the economy has been fading since the 70s. Used to be a "river" city. I'm not sure, but I'd bet their hospital is part of the regional county NP system, like most rural hospitals are here.

 

[NDdomer2]

One thing our health system is starting to see is a sudden wave in ICU admits. These are not due to COVID19 either, it is individuals who maybe had moderate acuity in symptoms/healthcare needs who have been staying away from hospital due to quarantine who have had their conditions worsen and now need high acuity care.

A second thing is the hospital is starting to discuss "re-opening" plans, however, in order to open up elective procedures the amount of PPE that would be needed is not attainable currently.

These items are of higher burder on the sytem as a whole than actual treatment of COVID19.

 

[RDU Irish]

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/...-suggests-far-more-infections-in-15208919.php

This Stanford study of Santa Clara County shows the number up in the Bay Area could have been much higher than reported. Right now there are less than 2000 "reported cases" in the county. The antibody testing shows that on the low end 48,000 residents have had the virus. A lot of us on the west coast experienced mystery illnesses earlier in the year. The flu season was reportedly very strong this year or was it? When did covid tests begin in March? California does a lot of business/interaction with China so while testing numbers may be low out here there are a lot of people on the west that feel the numbers are much higher. I am hoping to get an antibody test to see if my five days of asthma like conditions and cough in early February were from Covid. This hit me less than five days after making two visits to a medical building in Irvine.

Asked my ID doctor friend about that study - he said it was tracking any coronavirus not specifically COVID19 - on top of the other issues mentioned by NOLA. Valid point can be made that even the wrong corona antibodies are better than none (flu shot rarely hits the right strain but helps increase resistance and reduce severity). Either way amazing how flawed positive news is quickly discounted while flawed hysteria validating data is gospel despite some much bigger flaws and shot in the dark assumptions.

It is logical, if not responsible to view antibody tests as confirming 10x to 50x more people either have had it or have significant resistance to it than the "confirmed cases" everyone likes to obsess about. Extrapolating that to the death rate is absolutely appropriate and quickly brings this mortality rate down to that of a normal flu season - meaning it is less deadly when accounting for no vaccines. MOST require no hospitalization and a huge number the afflicted never know/knew they even had it (CDC now estimating 25% are asymptomatic - no way their first guess is too high since they have to cover for public policy now).

10% of flu hospitalizations die - why is that not worth shutting down the world or requiring flu vaccines for everyone? As a matter of public health shouldn't we require annual flu vaccines paid for by Uncle Sam - would cost a lot less than this shut down and save more lives. The answer is hell no, my personal liberty is worth the added societal risk BUT make flu shots free and easily accessible so it is easier to make the correct personal choice. Also require vaccination verification of incoming foreign travelers.

Don't like Bill Maher but he is pretty spot on in his commentary posted, IMO. Wash your hands and get back to work. If you are an at risk population, take the same precautions you should take every flu season and minimize exposure to others.

 

[RDU Irish]

Closest I have gotten to death in this crisis. Our grade school principal's 94 year old grandmother who lives in NY died of COVID this week.

 

[NDdomer2]

Indiana still has ~50% of all ICU beds available and 75% of ventilators available.

Official moved "hunker down hoosiers" to may 1st and noted current models predict a May 25th relaxing.

 

[TorontoGold]

Seems like hydroxychloroquine studies aren't going well - https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Closest I have gotten to death in this crisis. Our grade school principal's 94 year old grandmother who lives in NY died of COVID this week.

Not calling you out or singling you out...your post just made me have this thought...

It's amazing how many people I personally know who:
1) don't know someone directly who've had it or died from it and think this isn't a big deal or...
2) have actually had it, confirmed, been really sick, and/or died

I was at one of the big Indiana high school bball sectional games that's getting attention in the local Indy media. There's a photo of me in the background of a player dunking. In that photo, multiple people and/or their families dealt with Covid and one person died (he was sitting right behind me). Knock on wood, but I haven't had any symptoms. It's bizarre.

 

[Irishize]

Seems like hydroxychloroquine studies aren't going well - https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

I don’t find that surprising considering there is no published study yet supporting it. But keep in mind, they weren’t handing the stuff out like aspirin. My understanding is you had to be on death’s door before it was used. Personally, if I had exhausted every option to no avail & death was the other option....pass the Plaquenil please.

 

[Irishize]

We will eventually do what Sweden is doing now (much to the media’s chagrin) it’s just a matter of how long we wait.

Anyone who says “told you so” when the rates spike back up aren’t using logic. Of course there’s going to be an initial increase in the # of infected when restrictions are lessened. And that will be the same one month, three months, six months or even one year from now.

The idea is that the hospitals are equipped w/ enough resources to better be prepared for the next spike.

There is NO guarantee that a vaccine will be forthcoming...even 18 months from now.

There’s NO way the US is going to test 20M people per day. It’s not realistic. 120-300K per day is doable. Former FDA head Scott Gottlieb thinks 300K per day is sufficient in the hot spot areas.

There is NO world where the rates DON’T go up when we return to semi-normalcy.

We aren’t likely going to avoid COVID on an individual level. Unless we all become Bubble Boy from Seinfeld, there’s no way to realistically eradicate down to zero. Shutting down the economy until there’s 0% chance of infection is ludicrous.

 

[NDdomer2]

We will eventually do what Sweden is doing now (much to the media’s chagrin) it’s just a matter of how long we wait.

Anyone who says “told you so” when the rates spike back up aren’t using logic. Of course there’s going to be an initial increase in the # of infected when restrictions are lessened. And that will be the same one month, three months, six months or even one year from now.

The idea is that the hospitals are equipped w/ enough resources to better be prepared for the next spike.

There is NO guarantee that a vaccine will be forthcoming...even 18 months from now.

There’s NO way the US is going to test 20M people per day. It’s not realistic. 120-300K per day is doable. Former FDA head Scott Gottlieb thinks 300K per day is sufficient in the hot spot areas.

There is NO world where the rates DON’T go up when we return to semi-normalcy.

We aren’t likely going to avoid COVID on an individual level. Unless we all become Bubble Boy from Seinfeld, there’s no way to realistically eradicate down to zero. Shutting down the economy until there’s 0% chance of infection is ludicrous.

even sweden will have to deal with spikes once they open their borders back up.

Also - i would hesitate to suggest hospitals are equipped with enough resources.

 

[NDdomer2]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map very interactive down to the county level

 

[Sea Turtle]

We will eventually do what Sweden is doing now (much to the media’s chagrin) it’s just a matter of how long we wait.

Anyone who says “told you so” when the rates spike back up aren’t using logic. Of course there’s going to be an initial increase in the # of infected when restrictions are lessened. And that will be the same one month, three months, six months or even one year from now.

The idea is that the hospitals are equipped w/ enough resources to better be prepared for the next spike.

There is NO guarantee that a vaccine will be forthcoming...even 18 months from now.

There’s NO way the US is going to test 20M people per day. It’s not realistic. 120-300K per day is doable. Former FDA head Scott Gottlieb thinks 300K per day is sufficient in the hot spot areas.

There is NO world where the rates DON’T go up when we return to semi-normalcy.

We aren’t likely going to avoid COVID on an individual level. Unless we all become Bubble Boy from Seinfeld, there’s no way to realistically eradicate down to zero. Shutting down the economy until there’s 0% chance of infection is ludicrous.

Moops

 

[TorontoGold]

I don’t find that surprising considering there is no published study yet supporting it. But keep in mind, they weren’t handing the stuff out like aspirin. My understanding is you had to be on death’s door before it was used. Personally, if I had exhausted every option to no avail & death was the other option....pass the Plaquenil please.

Yeah reports coming out from the available data and studies aren't good. But, if you read the article the control group had a better survival rate than the group given the anti malarial (28% vs 22%). Given the better the survival rates of not taking it and the concerns of organ damage, not sure you want to be taking it.

 

[RDU Irish]

Not calling you out or singling you out...your post just made me have this thought...

It's amazing how many people I personally know who:
1) don't know someone directly who've had it or died from it and think this isn't a big deal or...
2) have actually had it, confirmed, been really sick, and/or died

I was at one of the big Indiana high school bball sectional games that's getting attention in the local Indy media. There's a photo of me in the background of a player dunking. In that photo, multiple people and/or their families dealt with Covid and one person died (he was sitting right behind me). Knock on wood, but I haven't had any symptoms. It's bizarre.

Total lockdown is the only way to properly "respect" this situation? Everyone I know is socially distancing and being cleaner than ever in their lives. Some think that is enough while getting back to work for low risk groups while others think the covid is hiding behind every tree waiting to kill them on the spot.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Asked my ID doctor friend about that study - he said it was tracking any coronavirus not specifically COVID19 - on top of the other issues mentioned by NOLA. Valid point can be made that even the wrong corona antibodies are better than none (flu shot rarely hits the right strain but helps increase resistance and reduce severity). Either way amazing how flawed positive news is quickly discounted while flawed hysteria validating data is gospel despite some much bigger flaws and shot in the dark assumptions.

It is logical, if not responsible to view antibody tests as confirming 10x to 50x more people either have had it or have significant resistance to it than the "confirmed cases" everyone likes to obsess about. Extrapolating that to the death rate is absolutely appropriate and quickly brings this mortality rate down to that of a normal flu season - meaning it is less deadly when accounting for no vaccines. MOST require no hospitalization and a huge number the afflicted never know/knew they even had it (CDC now estimating 25% are asymptomatic - no way their first guess is too high since they have to cover for public policy now).

10% of flu hospitalizations die - why is that not worth shutting down the world or requiring flu vaccines for everyone? As a matter of public health shouldn't we require annual flu vaccines paid for by Uncle Sam - would cost a lot less than this shut down and save more lives. The answer is hell no, my personal liberty is worth the added societal risk BUT make flu shots free and easily accessible so it is easier to make the correct personal choice. Also require vaccination verification of incoming foreign travelers.

Don't like Bill Maher but he is pretty spot on in his commentary posted, IMO. Wash your hands and get back to work. If you are an at risk population, take the same precautions you should take every flu season and minimize exposure to others.

Does you ID doc friend share your other sentiments on this pandemic?

Flu shots are free and easily accessible but people still don't get them because of reasons like personal liberty. If you have any type of insurance - free. If you go to your local health dept - free. If you walk through a hospital during flu season - free. If you are in college - free. A lot of employers offer them for - free. Kroger might charge you $20 if you can't figure out any of the above.


Copied and pasted from my post earlier in thread. Nothing has changed:
The flu is deadly, no question which is why the vaccine is so important. And yet there are millions of people in our country who think the vaccine will give them the disease or its some sort of nonsense government conspiracy.

But our health care system accommodates flu every year because its predictable in season, scope, and severity. Flu is endemic, meaning it has regular seasonal occurrence. COVID 19 is a pandemic, something our health care systems are not built to accommodate. It is not predictable. It is more transmissible. And by all accounts is more deadly.

 

[ND-North]

Yeah reports coming out from the available data and studies aren't good. But, if you read the article the control group had a better survival rate than the group given the anti malarial (28% vs 22%). Given the better the survival rates of not taking it and the concerns of organ damage, not sure you want to be taking it.

This is a retrospective, non-controlled study. A very poor way to study the effectiveness of medications. This is directly out of the paper.

"However, hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely
to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin."

I don't know if it will work or not (my hunch is no) but I would wait for the prospective randomized control trials before passing any final judgements.

 

[notredomer23]

Super anecdotal, but I’ve mentioned earlier that my aunt got the hydroxychloriquine and was almost instantly feeling better after taking it. At 88 and in a long term care facility, she fits the demo that would definitely succumb to it. Who knows if it was because of that or just pure coincidence. My hunch is all these therapeutics have a level of efficacy if administered early enough.

 

[Circa]

Closest I have gotten to death in this crisis. Our grade school principal's 94 year old grandmother who lives in NY died of COVID this week.

I'm so sorry for your loss.

 

[Legacy]

About Half of Lower-Income Americans Report Household Job or Wage Loss Due to COVID-19
Only 23% say they have emergency funds that would last them three months (Pew)

As the economic toll from the coronavirus outbreak continues to mount, a new Pew Research Center survey finds the impact is falling more heavily on lower-income adults – a group that was feeling significant financial pressure well before the current crisis. Overall, 43% of U.S. adults now say that they or someone in their household has lost a job or taken a cut in pay due to the outbreak, up from 33% in the latter half of March. Among lower-income adults, an even higher share (52%) say they or someone in their household has experienced this type of job upheaval.

In addition to being among the hardest hit by the economic fallout from COVID-19, lower-income adults are less prepared to withstand a financial shock than those with higher incomes. Only about one-in-four (23%) say they have rainy day funds set aside that would cover their expenses for three months in case of an emergency such as job loss, sickness or an economic downturn, compared with 48% of middle-income and 75% of upper-income adults.1 And while 53% of lower-income adults say they will have trouble paying some of their bills this month, about a quarter of middle-income adults and 11% of those in the upper income tier say the same. (cont)

 

[Irish#1]

Indiana's rate was still climbing as of yesterday. I'm hoping this starts to flatten out soon.

For some reason a number of nursing homes in Indiana have been hot pretty hard. The lead IN heath care official refused to give the names of the facilities citing HIPAA. Don't agree with that. Seems you can release the names of the facilties without giving up the names of those residing there. If I had someone that needed to go to a nursing home, I'd like to know the status of the facility.

If I have to go to a store, I wear an N95, but I am still amazed how many people are out and not wearing some type of protection.

The wife and I are sending a dozen pizzas to the hospital where our daughter works. Just a little way of saying thanks.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Indiana's rate was still climbing as of yesterday. I'm hoping this starts to flatten out soon.

For some reason a number of nursing homes in Indiana have been hot pretty hard. The lead IN heath care official refused to give the names of the facilities citing HIPAA. Don't agree with that. Seems you can release the names of the facilties without giving up the names of those residing there. If I had someone that needed to go to a nursing home, I'd like to know the status of the facility.

If I have to go to a store, I wear an N95, but I am still amazed how many people are out and not wearing some type of protection.

The wife and I are sending a dozen pizzas to the hospital where our daughter works. Just a little way of saying thanks.

Governor announced yesterday that they would be adjusting some death totals later this week to account for "presumptive" cases. So don't be alarmed when it takes a big jump up.

 

[goldandblue]

Governor announced yesterday that they would be adjusting some death totals later this week to account for "presumptive" cases. So don't be alarmed when it takes a big jump up.

yep. and that is complete bullshit...

 

[RDU Irish]

Does you ID doc friend share your other sentiments on this pandemic?

Flu shots are free and easily accessible but people still don't get them because of reasons like personal liberty. If you have any type of insurance - free. If you go to your local health dept - free. If you walk through a hospital during flu season - free. If you are in college - free. A lot of employers offer them for - free. Kroger might charge you $20 if you can't figure out any of the above.


Copied and pasted from my post earlier in thread. Nothing has changed:
The flu is deadly, no question which is why the vaccine is so important. And yet there are millions of people in our country who think the vaccine will give them the disease or its some sort of nonsense government conspiracy.

But our health care system accommodates flu every year because its predictable in season, scope, and severity. Flu is endemic, meaning it has regular seasonal occurrence. COVID 19 is a pandemic, something our health care systems are not built to accommodate. It is not predictable. It is more transmissible. And by all accounts is more deadly.

He agrees that people are hysterical but better to overreact than not react so sees some value in it as these actions need to be voluntary (liberty is a thing). He agrees that social distancing and hand washing would be adequate, not much you can do in shitholes like NYC where avoidance is nearly impossible. He agrees the goal posts are being moved from "flattening" to OMG we have to save EVERYBODY which he KNOWS is totally unreasonable. He does not think the boogeyman is hiding behind every tree or sitting on every grocery cart handle and if it is, just wash your hands and don't touch your face to neuter him. But then again he is a Michigan fan/grad so an argument can be made he is a complete moron.

My point on the flu - with vaccines and years of action it is still very deadly across most strains. 10% of flu hospitalizations end up dead after years of battling it. What makes a Wuhan Flu death so much more noble and less tolerable than an Influenza death? And we absolutely are getting data to support common sense that way more people HAD or HAVE it than testing is catching. CDC says 25% show no symptoms ever - why would they test, how would we know? How do you know who had it three weeks ago and recovered? All the chicken littles demand everyone assumes nobody every had it who didn't test positive, except when we lay a C19 diagnosis on a dead person to help prop up numbers to validate bad decisions. I have seen ranges of 10x to 85x for numbers who have had it beyond the confirmed cases. Apply that to flu mortality and it is the same or less, unchecked out of the gate without knowing how to fight it or vaccinate. How is that more deadly than the flu again?

COVID19 comes from an inherently more benign virus family of coronavirus. Logic would tell me mutations are more likely to be milder, not meaner whereas influenza mutations are mostly mean and less often mild (IMO - I didn't source fifty studies to create that theory, just seems logical).

 

[Irish#1]

SIAP

Article from CNN talks about the first cases of death were February 6 & 17 in California's Santa Clara county and not in Kirkland, WA on February 29 as originally thought. Neither person had traveled, so they believe they caught it via "community spread". This means they contracted it in early to mid January.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Total lockdown is the only way to properly "respect" this situation? Everyone I know is socially distancing and being cleaner than ever in their lives. Some think that is enough while getting back to work for low risk groups while others think the covid is hiding behind every tree waiting to kill them on the spot.

Did I say or imply that total lockdown is the only way to respect the situation? I certainly don't feel that way. The country can't stay in quarantine for the rest of eternity until we have a vaccine. That's not practical.

I respect that this is a tough situation and there really are no good answers. My comment was more directed at the two types of people I keep coming across. Those you basically described in the bolded part of your post. This is a hoax vs This will kill us all.

What we do about it is clearly up for debate.