Coaches Poll Top 25 (ND #7)

[Irish2155]

Auburn or Bama will take care of itself...

Oregon and MSU are the problem. I stand by my stance that Oregon is overrated, but it sure doesn't help if they put away Stanford easily next week.

MSU as conference champion might be a problem though.

A one loss MSU team might be the fourth team in. One loss ND team has nothing to worry about.

I think Stanford is going to beat Oregon. Their defense is really bad, Oregon will lose again at least once.

 

[NDTH91]

Yeah the guy actually extends his arms and actively blocks, unlike our guys that get jump and grabbed by bad DBs who blew coverage.

ND #7 in coaches poll.

MSU ahead of us and Oregon is the most ridiculous thing. Auburn... who just struggled with bad South Carolina... being #4 isn't much better.

NCAA Football - Amway Coaches Poll | USA Today Sports

How in the world did auburn, who like you said barely beat a bad so. Car. team jump michigan st who easily handled a big rivalry game? How?

 

[Irish YJ]

yep, Auburn who almost $hit the bed vs an unranked SC team jumps MichSt. Horrible.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Up to #6 in the AP. Ole Miss at 7, MSU at # 8

 

[MNIrishman]

Up to #6 in the AP. Ole Miss at 7, MSU at # 8

Mich. St. should be above Ole Miss.

 

[IrishLax]

How in the world did auburn, who like you said barely beat a bad so. Car. team jump michigan st who easily handled a big rivalry game? How?

To be fair to Auburn... who I do think is overrated... their OOC win at KSU looks pretty darn impressive now even if they lucked that out. Which is why I think people justify having them where they are.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

To be fair to Auburn... who I do think is overrated... their OOC win at KSU looks pretty darn impressive now even if they lucked that out. Which is why I think people justify having them where they are.

You're over thinking it. They're in the $EC, thus the ranking.

 

[Irish YJ]

To be fair to Auburn... who I do think is overrated... their OOC win at KSU looks pretty darn impressive now even if they lucked that out. Which is why I think people justify having them where they are.

To me, that does not erase a bad loss to MissSt coupled with current performance vs SC at home. In a couple weeks, when KSt probably loses to Baylor and TCU, and that win will not look so good but I see your point. KSt gave them that game. Horrible ending to a good performance by the Wildcats

 

[nd_fan]

Win out and it'll take care of itself. One loss to FSU on a questionable call with 11 other victories, all over FBS schools should carry enough weight to put us in the the top 4

Not really, there will be plenty of other schools that will end up 12-1 or 11-1 with a harder schedule ahead of us. So winning out won't be that impressive if the teams we beat don't win their games out also. Or else we will be left with beating mediocre teams and no marquee win but just a "close loss".

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Not really, there will be plenty of other schools that will end up 12-1 or 11-1 with a harder schedule ahead of us. So winning out won't be that impressive if the teams we beat don't win their games out also. Or else we will be left with beating mediocre teams and no marquee win but just a "close loss".

Which other schools will end up 12-1 or 11-1 with a harder schedule at the end of the year? You said plenty, so name 4 and we can revisit this.

Notre Dame can do nothing else but win their games. I really don't think the committee will leave out a one-loss ND team, especially if ASU wins until we meet them.

I'm not worried because a lot of football has to be played before we should worry about being left out. If our only loss was a last second, questionable call to the defending champs then I don't see any amount of reasoning that keeps ND out. Even if our other wins aren't against marquee match-ups, our big opportunity saw us rise to the occasion.

 

[Irish YJ]

ASU drops one after a win...

Also, there are plenty of 1 loss teams that can say win out and they are in. We need to win out, and we need some others to lose.

Some behind us, which have tougher roads could leap us if they win out.

 

[Rocknes Ghost]

Mich. St. should be above Ole Miss.

Why?

Both teams have 1 loss. Ole miss beat Alabama and Michigan State beat Nebraska. Ole miss lost by 3 at LSU. MSU lost by 19 to Oregon.

 

[nd_fan]

Which other schools will end up 12-1 or 11-1 with a harder schedule at the end of the year? You said plenty, so name 4 and we can revisit this.

Notre Dame can do nothing else but win their games. I really don't think the committee will leave out a one-loss ND team, especially if ASU wins until we meet them.

I'm not worried because a lot of football has to be played before we should worry about being left out. If our only loss was a last second, questionable call to the defending champs then I don't see any amount of reasoning that keeps ND out. Even if our other wins aren't against marquee match-ups, our big opportunity saw us rise to the occasion.

MissSt - Ark, UT Martin, @Bama, Vand, @ OleMiss, SEC Champ vs UGA?

OleMiss - Aub, Presb, @ Ark, MissSt , SEC Champ vs UGA?

Bama - @LSU, MissSt, W.Car, Aub, SEC Champ vs UGA?

Auburn - @OleMiss, TAMU, @UGA, Samf, @Bama, SEC Champ vs UGA?

Any of the two teams win out, they are in. Especially if Miss St wins out and so does Auburn, then Auburn's only loss is Miss St with 3 wins against top SEC teams.

Oregon - Stanf, @Utah, Colo, @OreSt, Pac12 Champ vs ASU/AZ/Ut

Oregon is already ahead of us and if they win out, they most likely in.

MichSt - OhioSt, @Mary, Rut, @PSU, Big10 Champ vs Neb/Min/Iowa/Wis

TCU - @WVU, KanSt, @Kan, @TX, IowaSt

Looks very impressive, win over #4 Oklahoma, and loss to #5 Baylor by 3 points. They win out, they will have a great resume for the playoffs

KanSt - OKSt, @TCU, @WVU, Kans, @Baylor

They won against #11 Oklahoma and have a hard road coming up, but if they win out, they will have a 4 top 25 team wins and only loss to Auburn by 6 points. If Auburn win outs and assuming KState wins out as well, then they will have a great chance to make it.

Baylor - Kans, @OK, OKSt, TexT, KanSt

AZ - @UCLA, Colo, Wash, @Ut, ASU, PAC12 Champ vs Ore/Stan?

They already knocked out Oregon and they win the Pac 12 championship they are in good shape, but loss to USC might be the only factor that looks bad in their resume. The only team that may or may not have edge over ND if ND wins out. But AZ will still can be in the talks

Utah - @ASU, Ore, @Stan, AZ, @Col Pac12 Champ vs Oregon/Stan?

Wins out including the Pac 12 championship, and they are looking really good at 12-1 for the playoffs.

I love ND and want them to make it, but with USC, Stanford and Louisville out, the only ranked team we have is ASU. If any one of those those pac 12 teams end up beating ASU as well and going 12-1, there goes ND's top "win". Then what do you have left? A 11-1 ND team with 1 "good loss" and no conference championship game.

So the win out and we are in, is really not that realistic. I hope its true but we need to be realistic about the situation.

 

[MNIrishman]

Why?

Both teams have 1 loss. Ole miss beat Alabama and Michigan State beat Nebraska. Ole miss lost by 3 at LSU. MSU lost by 19 to Oregon.

LSU is bad. Oregon is not.

 

[Irish YJ]

LSU is bad. Oregon is not.

Debatable at best...

Oregon's best win is vs MichSt, second best win is against a down trending UCLA team. Outside of that, their schedule is meh.

I do think OR is better than LSU, but not by that much, and it's only a gut feeling. Oregon's body of work is nothing stellar thus far aside from the fact they are "Oregon" and have a great QB. They are getting the benefit of the doubt by many for injuries they suffered around the time of the AZ loss. Still, body of work...

 

[D-BOE34]

#1 - FSU
#2 - Miss St
#3 - ND
#4 - MSU

This would be my ideal top 4 at the end of the year. I think we can beat all 3 of these teams. If some way this could work out, I would be stoked! Would love for a rematch NC game against FSU.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

MissSt - Ark, UT Martin, @Bama, Vand, @ OleMiss, SEC Champ vs UGA?

OleMiss - Aub, Presb, @ Ark, MissSt , SEC Champ vs UGA?

Bama - @LSU, MissSt, W.Car, Aub, SEC Champ vs UGA?

Auburn - @OleMiss, TAMU, @UGA, Samf, @Bama, SEC Champ vs UGA?

Any of the two teams win out, they are in. Especially if Miss St wins out and so does Auburn, then Auburn's only loss is Miss St with 3 wins against top SEC teams.

Oregon - Stanf, @Utah, Colo, @OreSt, Pac12 Champ vs ASU/AZ/Ut

Oregon is already ahead of us and if they win out, they most likely in.

MichSt - OhioSt, @Mary, Rut, @PSU, Big10 Champ vs Neb/Min/Iowa/Wis

TCU - @WVU, KanSt, @Kan, @TX, IowaSt

Looks very impressive, win over #4 Oklahoma, and loss to #5 Baylor by 3 points. They win out, they will have a great resume for the playoffs

KanSt - OKSt, @TCU, @WVU, Kans, @Baylor

They won against #11 Oklahoma and have a hard road coming up, but if they win out, they will have a 4 top 25 team wins and only loss to Auburn by 6 points. If Auburn win outs and assuming KState wins out as well, then they will have a great chance to make it.

Baylor - Kans, @OK, OKSt, TexT, KanSt

AZ - @UCLA, Colo, Wash, @Ut, ASU, PAC12 Champ vs Ore/Stan?

They already knocked out Oregon and they win the Pac 12 championship they are in good shape, but loss to USC might be the only factor that looks bad in their resume. The only team that may or may not have edge over ND if ND wins out. But AZ will still can be in the talks

Utah - @ASU, Ore, @Stan, AZ, @Col Pac12 Champ vs Oregon/Stan?

Wins out including the Pac 12 championship, and they are looking really good at 12-1 for the playoffs.

I love ND and want them to make it, but with USC, Stanford and Louisville out, the only ranked team we have is ASU. If any one of those those pac 12 teams end up beating ASU as well and going 12-1, there goes ND's top "win". Then what do you have left? A 11-1 ND team with 1 "good loss" and no conference championship game.

So the win out and we are in, is really not that realistic. I hope its true but we need to be realistic about the situation.

We are realistic about the situation. Every year, we talk about how we may be left out. We must win all of our games or it doesn't matter. The SEC will cannibalize itself. Oregon is a threat if they win out. Big ten, nope. I don't see it. I don't think the BIG 12 will take our place. They have good competition but I'm not seeing a schedule that keeps them ahead of us.

There are scenarios where we don't get in, but it's the swiss cheese model. So many things have to happen perfectly to keep us out that it isn't worth worrying about.

But if you feel better fretting over things outside of our control then by all means continue. I won't argue against it because technically, there is a chance that we don't get in.

 

[nd_fan]

We are realistic about the situation. Every year, we talk about how we may be left out. We must win all of our games or it doesn't matter. The SEC will cannibalize itself. Oregon is a threat if they win out. Big ten, nope. I don't see it. I don't think the BIG 12 will take our place. They have good competition but I'm not seeing a schedule that keeps them ahead of us.

There are scenarios where we don't get in, but it's the swiss cheese model. So many things have to happen perfectly to keep us out that it isn't worth worrying about.

But if you feel better fretting over things outside of our control then by all means continue. I won't argue against it because technically, there is a chance that we don't get in.

I am not 'fretting" about anything. You asked for evidence and I showed it to you. It's not my problem that you have rationalized yourself into thinking that other conferences are just not that good and can be thrown out of the equation without legitimacy. I highly doubt the committee will just throw out Big 10 and Big 12 champs and just let ND walk right in. I just don't let homerism cloud my vision of reality. I personally prefer to know reality of the situation. Its better for planning in life.

 

[ickythump1225]

So the win out and we are in, is really not that realistic. I hope its true but we need to be realistic about the situation.

Even after 2012 we still get the chicken little act around here? Remember all the way back then when every week we won but there was this log jam of unbeaten teams ahead of us so we all feared being left out of the NCG? Yeah it took until the second to last week of the season for a path to clear for us. Do you really think all of those SECw teams (who still have to play each other for the most part) are all going to end up with 1 loss? How many teams end up with 1 loss in CFB on average each year? All we can do is take care of our end of the bargain and the rest will sort itself out but people need to relax. We still have to win our games before I'm going to be overly concerned about what might happen.

 

[NCND]

+1. All ND can control is what happens on the field. Win.

 

[phork]

ND wins out, FSU wins out, Auburn loses and ND is in. All those things should be 100% with the exception of Auburn.

 

[BGIF]

LSU is bad. Oregon is not.

Declarative but really? Bad?

Sagarin's Predictor Model today ranks LSU #8 and Oregon #10 with less than a 2 point difference between them. Sounds close.

Sagarin rates LSU with the 9th Toughest Schedule and Oregon with the 34th. LSU's schedule to date is about 6 points tougher.

 

[nd_fan]

Even after 2012 we still get the chicken little act around here? Remember all the way back then when every week we won but there was this log jam of unbeaten teams ahead of us so we all feared being left out of the NCG? Yeah it took until the second to last week of the season for a path to clear for us. Do you really think all of those SECw teams (who still have to play each other for the most part) are all going to end up with 1 loss? How many teams end up with 1 loss in CFB on average each year? All we can do is take care of our end of the bargain and the rest will sort itself out but people need to relax. We still have to win our games before I'm going to be overly concerned about what might happen.

In 2012 the probability of an undefeated ND making the playoffs is a lot greater than a 2014 1-Loss ND. By week 9 ND was already ranked 4 and just needed KS and Oregon to lose to go undefeated make the BCG. If ND went 11-1 that year, I don't care how much of a homer you are, there is no way you can say 1-loss Oregon team that was blowing out opponents that year would have been left out of the NCG. A ND's undefeated season removed any doubt of ND going to the CG. In 2014 that is not the case since there will be plenty of 11-1 and 12-1 teams so the whole "win out and we're in" situation doesn't apply. It would have applied if ND went undefeated. You also have to add in the probability that other teams will have the same record as ND and similar or better SOS, creating a very perplexing situation.

Yea sure you can sit here and be optimistic that everything will sort itself out, that certainly is one path to go no doubt, but you can also start looking at realistic chances ND has of making it. Of course has a ND fan I want everything to sort itself out.

 

[BGIF]

ND wins out, FSU wins out, Auburn loses and ND is in. All those things should be 100% with the exception of Auburn.

Today's Sagarin Predictor Model has ND @ ASU a pick'em and @ USC about a 2 point dog.

UL would be about an 8 pt dog in South Bend.

 

[ickythump1225]

In 2012 the probability of an undefeated ND making the playoffs is a lot greater than a 2014 1-Loss ND. By week 9 ND was already ranked 4 and just needed KS and Oregon to lose to go undefeated make the BCG. If ND went 11-1 that year, I don't care how much of a homer you are, there is no way you can say 1-loss Oregon team that was blowing out opponents that year would have been left out of the NCG. A ND's undefeated season removed any doubt of ND going to the CG. In 2014 that is not the case since there will be plenty of 11-1 and 12-1 teams so the whole "win out and we're in" situation doesn't apply. It would have applied if ND went undefeated. You also have to add in the probability that other teams will have the same record as ND and similar or better SOS, creating a very perplexing situation.

Yea sure you can sit here and be optimistic that everything will sort itself out, that certainly is one path to go no doubt, but you can also start looking at realistic chances ND has of making it. Of course has a ND fan I want everything to sort itself out.

It's annoying when pessimists try to present their pessimism under the guise of "realism." It is realistic to think that if ND wins out they will be in the playoffs. There is so much football left to be played that at this point is definitely "woe is me" pessimism to automatically start saying all of these teams will A) win out and B) get in ahead of 1 loss ND.

And there is another difference between 2012 and 2014 that you missed, yeah in 2012 we were ranked #4 by now, but guess what? Only 2 teams got in 2012. We're ranked #6 right now in one poll, but 4 teams get in. So are more or less in the same position this year as we were in 2012.

 

[D-BOE34]

Every team that wins out will make a case that they should have won. Odds are that not every team will win out. Every year around this time it looks a lot cloudier than when the season ends. Teams are starting to beat each other up, meat of the schedule is taking tolls and teams are starting to get it together to pull off upsets. When the last game is played for ND and we are 11-1, we will be looking at 1 maybe 2 things to fall in our favor. We also could be solid in the top 4 and looking for our opponent.

Happens every year. One of the big reason I was a fan of the BCS. It worked itself out more years than not.

 

[ickythump1225]

Every team that wins out will make a case that they should have won. Odds are that not every team will win out. Every year around this time it looks a lot cloudier than when the season ends. Teams are starting to beat each other up, meat of the schedule is taking tolls and teams are starting to get it together to pull off upsets. When the last game is played for ND and we are 11-1, we will be looking at 1 maybe 2 things to fall in our favor. We also could be solid in the top 4 and looking for our opponent.

Happens every year. One of the big reason I was a fan of the BCS. It worked itself out more years than not.

Things will work themselves out. Every fans of teams in a similar situation to ours fret about the teams in front of them and they always panic that those teams will all win out. We went through this in 2012. Teams will start falling and things will sort themselves out.

 

[nd_fan]

It's annoying when pessimists try to present their pessimism under the guise of "realism." .

Actually you got it completely wrong. Its optimistics that make realists look "pessimistic". Optimism is based on hope, realism is based on actual evidence. Pessimism would be saying that ND had no chance, which was never once mentioned.

Your "we win and everything will work out" situation is not really based on evidence other than your own wishful thinking, however my actual argument where I showed you the different scenarios on how teams can end up and can challenge ND's playoff spot, are based on evidence.

 

[Cackalacky]

It's annoying when pessimists try to present their pessimism under the guise of "realism." It is realistic to think that if ND wins out they will be in the playoffs. There is so much football left to be played that at this point is definitely "woe is me" pessimism to automatically start saying all of these teams will A) win out and B) get in ahead of 1 loss ND.

And there is another difference between 2012 and 2014 that you missed, yeah in 2012 we were ranked #4 by now, but guess what? Only 2 teams got in 2012. We're ranked #6 right now in one poll, but 4 teams get in. So are more or less in the same position this year as we were in 2012.

In reality, ND is not ranked anywhere as the only "real" poll will not be released until Tuesday. If ND is ranked by the committee higher than 7, I will be surprised.

 

[GATTACA!]

In reality, ND is not ranked anywhere as the only "real" poll will not be released until Tuesday. If ND is ranked by the committee higher than 7, I will be surprised.

This is where im at too. I wouldn't be shocked to see us come in at 9.