Clemson -10.5

[rtrn2glory]

Why let Clemson stay close? I say, Irish blow 'em out and run up that damn score!

I'd rather win close and then blowout Ohio St

 

[Irishize]

This mindset is what worries me the most. Clemson is going to come out with their pants on fire because they have everything to lose. If we get ran off the field, and Bama/OSU win their respective title games, A&M could very easily sneak in the back door at #4 and we are on the outside looking in. The "No TL in SB" narrative will be deafening, even though I don't think it was the end all, be all in that one.

I assume BK and the boys will be fired up, though. You play the game for accomplish feats like this, and an ACC Title is certainly unique and would be incredible to beat Clemson twice.

Ultimately, just keep it close, stay healthy, and live to see another day.

Have to love where the program is to even have the thought that a NY6 would be an utter disappointment.

They need to either win this Saturday in the rematch for the ACC Championship or win at least one CFP game for 2020 to be deemed a success IMO. I’ll take either one b/c that alone will give ND credibility to even the most cynical doubters.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think ND really needs a win on Saturday because losing locks in a semifinal game against Alabama and that's by far the worst matchup for ND.

Could play out that a close loss keeps us in 3rd. Doubt that would happen though, as it would likely set up for a ND/Clemson round 3. I wouldn't be opposed to that, but I'm sure the television gods would be.

But I'm with you, playing Bama game 1 would stink. Nobody wants to play Bama game 1. I'm praying for Trask to go off. Won't happen, but doesn't hurt to pray lol

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Could play out that a close loss keeps us in 3rd. Doubt that would happen though, as it would likely set up for a ND/Clemson round 3. I wouldn't be opposed to that, but I'm sure the television gods would be.

But I'm with you, playing Bama game 1 would stink. Nobody wants to play Bama game 1. I'm praying for Trask to go off. Won't happen, but doesn't hurt to pray lol

I don't see a way we avoid Bama with a loss this Saturday. We lose, Bama wins - 1 vs 4. We lose, Bama loses - we have Bama, Clemson, ND, and Ohio St likely in. Who's #1? It's gotta be either Bama or Clemson in which case we are either 3 or 4, whichever doesn't put us in a rematch with Clemson. So basically a Bama loss and Irish loss moves Clemson to a spot in which they will not have to face Bama in the first round.

 

[Irish YJ]

I don't see a way we avoid Bama with a loss this Saturday. We lose, Bama wins - 1 vs 4. We lose, Bama loses - we have Bama, Clemson, ND, and Ohio St likely in. Who's #1? It's gotta be either Bama or Clemson in which case we are either 3 or 4, whichever doesn't put us in a rematch with Clemson. So basically a Bama loss and Irish loss moves Clemson to a spot in which they will not have to face Bama in the first round.

Yup.
Dreaming of a ND win, Bama loss, OSU loss, etc. is foolhardy, but it's what I asked Santa for...

 

[EvilleIrish]

I think Bama is in even if they lose to Florida.

 

[irishfan]

Could play out that a close loss keeps us in 3rd. Doubt that would happen though, as it would likely set up for a ND/Clemson round 3. I wouldn't be opposed to that, but I'm sure the television gods would be.

But I'm with you, playing Bama game 1 would stink. Nobody wants to play Bama game 1. I'm praying for Trask to go off. Won't happen, but doesn't hurt to pray lol

I’m really interested to see if committee would go Clemson #2 and ND #3 if Clemson wins a tight one. From what I’ve seen, I don’t think they’re supposed to factor in avoiding rematches however they may do so regardless.

I just want to avoid Bama for as long as we can.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I think Bama is in even if they lose to Florida.

Bama could still be #1 even with a loss to Florida

 

[Irish YJ]

I’m really interested to see if committee would go Clemson #2 and ND #3 if Clemson wins a tight one. From what I’ve seen, I don’t think they’re supposed to factor in avoiding rematches however they may do so regardless.

I just want to avoid Bama for as long as we can.

Yeah, I don't think they are "supposed" to avoid rematches, but they would lol.

But a close loss by ND, should definitely keep them side by side in the rankings. The only question would be, if OSU demolishes NW, do they move up to #2 if ND and Clemson both have a loss (which would make Clemson 3 and ND 4). Sucks, but it's just extremely likely we play Bama unless Bama should lose.

 

[IrishLax]

Yeah, I don't think they are "supposed" to avoid rematches, but they would lol.

But a close loss by ND, should definitely keep them side by side in the rankings. The only question would be, if OSU demolishes NW, do they move up to #2 if ND and Clemson both have a loss (which would make Clemson 3 and ND 4). Sucks, but it's just extremely likely we play Bama unless Bama should lose.

They are, they've explicitly stated that they will avoid rematches if it all possible. This was said many years back when discussing their procedures... went so far as to say they will adjust teams up or down within reason to make sure it doesn't happen.

 

[Irishize]

They are, they've explicitly stated that they will avoid rematches if it all possible. This was said many years back when discussing their procedures... went so far as to say they will adjust teams up or down within reason to make sure it doesn't happen.

The non-ACC members of the committee may want to match them up to ensure at least one ACC team is eliminated and remove any chance for an all-ACC championship game.

 

[RDU Irish]

Going to the game - cautiously optimistic. Our banged up OL vs. their full strength DL gives me more anxiety than Lawrence back in the saddle.

My son and I are 1-0 in live ACC championship games. I expect our presence to put us over the top and secure another conference championship. If not, it is his fault and he can walk home from Charlotte.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Going to the game - cautiously optimistic. Our banged up OL vs. their full strength DL gives me more anxiety than Lawrence back in the saddle.

My son and I are 1-0 in live ACC championship games. I expect our presence to put us over the top and secure another conference championship. If not, it is his fault and he can walk home from Charlotte.

Good for you man, bring us home the dub!

I briefly entertained the thought of making the trip, jumped on stubhub, and said "Nah, the couch sounds great." FOUR figures, man.

Hope you have a solid connection and got a friendly discount. If not, I REALLY hope they win and make it worth the investment.

 

[phork]

Bama would have to drop to atleast 2, if not 3 by losing to a 2 loss Florida. ND would be 2, probably 3, with a loss to Clemson, #1 if they beat Clemson and OSU would be 4th.

If Bama loses and all others carry:

Clemson
Bama/ND
ND/Bama
OSU

If Bama losses and Clemson loses:

ND
OSU
Bama
Cincy

 

[Irish YJ]

They are, they've explicitly stated that they will avoid rematches if it all possible. This was said many years back when discussing their procedures... went so far as to say they will adjust teams up or down within reason to make sure it doesn't happen.

hmm. I guess it depends on how you interpret what Hancock said, but it also goes against later statements. Below if from 2014.

BCS executive director Bill Hancock says the selection committee for the College Football Playoff will try to avoid rematches, but not at the expense of the integrity of the seedings.

Hancock spoke to the Football Writers Association of America on Monday. He says the top priority of the selection committee will be to make sure the No. 1 team plays close to home and the teams are properly seeded.

 

[irishfan]

hmm. I guess it depends on how you interpret what Hancock said, but it also goes against later statements. Below if from 2014.

I could really see some momentum to keep OSU #4 given their lack of games. But that’s assuming we keep it close with Clemson. OSU not blowing out Northwestern would help too...

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Who would really want to see Clemson-ND part III anyway? Unless its in the national championship I wouldn't, 2 is enough. I'd rather see how we matched up with a different team.

 

[Irish YJ]

I could really see some momentum to keep OSU #4 given their lack of games. But that’s assuming we keep it close with Clemson. OSU not blowing out Northwestern would help too...

I could as well. You know that the CFPC is hearing about it. Mullen's comments cracked me up.

Who would really want to see Clemson-ND part III anyway? Unless its in the national championship I wouldn't, 2 is enough. I'd rather see how we matched up with a different team.

I'd be fine with a part 3. And I'd prefer it 1000x over vs having to play Bama first round.
All in all, if game 2 is a nail biter, or anywhere near as good as G1, folks will tune in for round 3.

 

[WilliamWallace]

I’m sure the 10.5 spread is including the players we didn’t play against in the first meeting. I appreciate the slap in the face only for motivational purposes. As mentioned already, stop losing these games and things will change.

 

[RDU Irish]

Good for you man, bring us home the dub!

I briefly entertained the thought of making the trip, jumped on stubhub, and said "Nah, the couch sounds great." FOUR figures, man.

Hope you have a solid connection and got a friendly discount. If not, I REALLY hope they win and make it worth the investment.

Local ND club got 14 pairs of tickets, I was a lottery winner. $55 face value plus a $100 donation to the local scholarship fund. I upped the donation - they underpriced these things but appreciate that is about as affordable of a ticket for a big game as you will see, especially with the restricted capacity.

 

[china423]

Anyone looking to sell 1 or split a pair off stubhub? lol

 

[irishtrooper]

Who would really want to see Clemson-ND part III anyway? Unless its in the national championship I wouldn't, 2 is enough. I'd rather see how we matched up with a different team.

I don’t care what they say....they’re NOT having ND/Clemson matchup in the semifinals. Not happening. They will dance around it and say whatever, but no

 

[philipm31]

Literally a zero percent chance of this happening. Notre Dame will not drop behind Texas A&M, period. I arguably don't think a 2-loss Clemson can drop behind Texas A&M but at least that's a discussion worth having. The committee is not going to downgrade two elite teams for playing each other when a non-champ, 1-loss team with one "meh" win to their name and a 4 TD blowout loss to Alabama sits at home on the couch.

Particularly when their one loss was to FLA or just lost to an unranked LSU.

The only way I see the Aggies go up to #4 is if we beat Clemson again. No way a 2-loss team is #4.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Clemson -10.5

What doesn't make sense is that I've followed lines very closely this year, and ND has consistently tracked as like a ~10-11 point dog to Bama and ~7 point dog to Clemson/Ohio State. Then we're mysteriously a 10.5 dog at a neutral site to Clemson?

This is super fishy.

The line right now isnt really an indicator of anything significant IMO.

Sharp money will start coming in around Friday evening, and the movement it creates will tell the story.

Line goes up: we fooked

Line goes down: we got a shot

*we got a shot either way obviously, but sharp money is a decent sign of what will probably happen within a certain range/threshold


LAX take a look at this:

Right now 44% have ND.

IF the % stays static, in the 42-45% for ND range, AND the line continues to move up or down anyways on Friday, thats how we know who the sharks are betting on. Are they gobbling points, or laying them?

% goes by total number of tickets, not total amount of money on each side. Vegas moves lines because of money, not % of tickets.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Wingman Ray]

Smart money doesnt know jack. Its the bounce of the game. Clem comes in and throws a couple picks early and the game is over. ND doesnt keep up with Clem scoring and the game is over. Either team gets down for long its over. The only way this game stays tight to the end if each round is answered by the opponents.

What really sucks is this game can potentially cripple either team in the playoffs. Players get hurt in games like this with crazy intensity going on. Frickin OSU gets to play....Northwestern. That is as about of a ho-hum game as it gets. I cant imagine anyone watching that game past halftime except diehard OSU fans with nothing to do with their time.

Bama is going to absolutely wreck FL. Anyone who thinks FL has a remote chance hasnt watched them play this year. The SEC has been down, no joke. You have Bama and everyone else is many steps behind. Hasnt been this bad in a long time.

ND wins and they get OSU while Clem gets Bama. Can ND play with OSU? Not really a fair question when you have an OSU team playing pattycakes with a bunch of cupcakes all season for the whopping 5 games they played. Zero chance of getting players hurt while ND loses half their line playing 10 games. The biggest injury an OSU player has had all season is a hangnail. Seems real fair.

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm predicting the line increases a tad...

 

[phork]

Bama would have to drop to atleast 2, if not 3 by losing to a 2 loss Florida. ND would be 2, probably 3, with a loss to Clemson, #1 if they beat Clemson and OSU would be 4th.

If Bama loses and all others carry:

Clemson
Bama/ND
ND/Bama
OSU

If Bama losses and Clemson loses:

ND
OSU
Bama
Cincy

With Cincys ass.fucking from the committee I'll change that to A&M.

Doom scenario is Alabama loses, ND loses and OSU blows the doors off NW. Does the committee have the balls to rank OSU first? Lol

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

With Cincys ass.fucking from the committee I'll change that to A&M.

Doom scenario is Alabama loses, ND loses and OSU blows the doors off NW. Does the committee have the balls to rank OSU first? Lol

My guess in that case is

1) Clemson
2) Bama
3) ND
4) OSU

I don't think OSU is moving off the 4 line in any scenario other than Clemson losing.

 

[RDU Irish]

I kind of want a shot at the Buckeyes.

And if we beat Clemson we should be #1. Who are Bama's quality wins again?

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Smart money doesnt know jack. Its the bounce of the game. Clem comes in and throws a couple picks early and the game is over. ND doesnt keep up with Clem scoring and the game is over. Either team gets down for long its over. The only way this game stays tight to the end if each round is answered by the opponents.

What really sucks is this game can potentially cripple either team in the playoffs. Players get hurt in games like this with crazy intensity going on. Frickin OSU gets to play....Northwestern. That is as about of a ho-hum game as it gets. I cant imagine anyone watching that game past halftime except diehard OSU fans with nothing to do with their time.

Bama is going to absolutely wreck FL. Anyone who thinks FL has a remote chance hasnt watched them play this year. The SEC has been down, no joke. You have Bama and everyone else is many steps behind. Hasnt been this bad in a long time.

ND wins and they get OSU while Clem gets Bama. Can ND play with OSU? Not really a fair question when you have an OSU team playing pattycakes with a bunch of cupcakes all season for the whopping 5 games they played. Zero chance of getting players hurt while ND loses half their line playing 10 games. The biggest injury an OSU player has had all season is a hangnail. Seems real fair.

Agree with everything here, except I think NW comes out with their pants on fire, too. And they're always a physical opponent, Fitz ball is no joke. Where they are lacking in talent they typically would make up for in intensity, physicality, and solid fundamentals.

OSU will run them off the field but they'll take some licks in the box just like ND/Clemson will.

But, your overall points remains; can't see how the CFPC is rewarding a team who plays half the games, with fresher, healthier bodies a shot at the championship. What a huge advantage. Just look at our OLine to see what a full season of wear and tear does to a team.