Bowl Projections 2023

[Reaper97]

Another reason to join a conference

It’s crazy how much our opponents have let us down.
Our SOS & SOR should have finished top 10, and 10-2 would have guaranteed us a NY6 game.
Clemson & USC crapping the bed killed us.
And Leonard getting hurt kills is if they continue to lose.
And a few games that ND needed others to win (that they should have won) killed us.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

It’s crazy how much our opponents have let us down.
Our SOS & SOR should have finished top 10, and 10-2 would have guaranteed us a NY6 game.
Clemson & USC crapping the bed killed us.
And Leonard getting hurt kills is if they continue to lose.
And a few games that ND needed others to win (that they should have won) killed us.

One could argue crapping the bed against Louisville killed us also.


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[Reaper97]

One could argue crapping the bed against Louisville killed us also.


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That killed us for the CFP.
Not the NY6.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

That killed us for the CFP.
Not the NY6.

If things hold, it’s essentially

CFP:

Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma

NY6:

Ohio State, Air Force, PAC winner, ACC #2

That essentially leaves 4 spots for:

Oregon/Utah/Oregon State
Penn State
Texas
Alabama/Ole Miss/LSU
ND (assuming they win out)

I think you are right. It’s doable when looking at it on paper.


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[Armyirish47]

Notre Dame took care of business and some of the chaos we needed ahead of us did us a solid as well. Bowl projections a bit rosier into the last third of the season.

The ESPN.com with some juice

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (this would be an amazing opportunity to knock them off)

Schlabach: Alabama and Notre Dame have combined to win nearly 2,000 games, but they've met on the field only eight times during their storied histories (the Irish lead the series 5-3). Thanks to losses by Oklahoma, Oregon State, Utah and others this past weekend, the Fighting Irish might work their way back into consideration for a New Year's Six bowl game. With remaining regular-season games against struggling Clemson, Wake Forest and Stanford, Notre Dame should finish 10-2. A Fighting Irish team with 10 victories is going to be difficult for the CFP selection committee to pass up.

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State (salty runback?)

Fiutak and Friends

ReliaQuest Bowl​

Monday, January 1, 2024
12:00 pm ET, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Bowl Projection: Notre Dame vs Tennessee (I don't hate it, very winnable game against the SEC)
CBS Sports Report - Seeing this match up on two different sites does not give me a warm and fuzzy

Dec. 28

Pop-Tarts

Notre Dame

vs. Oklahoma State

ACC vs. Big 12

5:45 p.m.

Orlando, Fla.

Also thought this was interesting from another Insider ESPN.com article on the big picture of college football

Go onnnnnnnn

Tier 3 (1-10% chance): Ole Miss 8%, Notre Dame 8%, Oklahoma 7%, Louisville 6%, Missouri 4%, LSU 2%, Tennessee 1%

If you're looking for something chaotic, here's the group from which it will probably come. If Georgia suffers an upset in the homestretch, it will likely come against a one-loss Ole Miss or Missouri or two-loss Tennessee, which could theoretically prompt a shocking SEC title run. And if things get really weird -- say, the Pac-12 champion has two losses and the Big Ten doesn't get two teams in -- that might open the door for a two-loss team like Notre Dame, Tennessee or LSU.

The Fighting Irish have looked spectacular over the past two weeks and could make another statement by walloping Clemson on Saturday. These odds are probably overstated, and Notre Dame just might not have the schedule to make up ground. But LSU does! The Tigers have also looked incredible in recent weeks, and an 11-2 LSU team would boast wins over both Alabama and (probably) Georgia in the SEC championship game.


An Oklahoma run obviously isn't out of the realm of possibility either. But the Sooners' recent form -- they've dropped from seventh to 11th in SP+ (30th on defense) in the past two weeks and spent their mulligan in Lawrence, Kansas -- has certainly dropped those odds.

 

[Lberry]

If I could choose between FSU/OSU/Bama, wouldn't want Bama. Saban runs the best program, best culture in the country and his 1st round draft picks don't skip bowl games lately.

OSU and FSU will have at least 3 elite players sit.

 

[Terry Jillery]

Give me Bama, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Oregon or a blue blood.

No to Ok St, AF, OR St., TN no thanks.

 

[Armyirish47]

Give me Bama, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Oregon or a blue blood.

No to Ok St, AF, OR St., TN no thanks.

It surprised me how much I thought the TN matchup would be fun. I remember those guys from my younger days and they were pretty flippin awesome. Just looking at the box score from 2005, some of my absolute favorite players showing out.

1st	06:51	UND - FASANO 43 yd pass from QUINN, B. (FITZPATRICK kick) 11 plays, 94 yards, TOP 4:23	0	7
1st	05:51	UND - STOVALL 35 yd pass from QUINN, B. (FITZPATRICK kick) 3 plays, 27 yards, TOP 0:54	0	14
1st	03:46	UT - James Wilhoit 25 yd field goal 8 plays, 67 yards, TOP 2:05	3	14
2nd	09:49	UND - ZBIKOWSKI 78 yd punt return (FITZPATRICK kick)	3	21
2nd	03:19	UT - Bret Smith 7 yd pass from Erik Ainge (James Wilhoit kick) 8 plays, 37 yards, TOP 3:20	10	21
3rd	05:06	UT - James Wilhoit 30 yd field goal 6 plays, 46 yards, TOP 2:24	13	21
3rd	01:49	UT - Arian Foster 3 yd run (Bret Smith pass), 6 plays, 55 yards, TOP 1:37	21	21
4th	13:57	UND - SAMARDZIJA 4 yd pass from QUINN, B. (FITZPATRICK kick) 6 plays, 75 yards, TOP 2:52	21	28
4th	07:47	UND - FITZPATRICK 36 yd field goal 6 plays, 17 yards, TOP 3:27	21	31
4th	04:01	UND - FITZPATRICK 28 yd field goal 6 plays, 10 yards, TOP 2:49	21	34
4th	03:17	UND - ZBIKOWSKI 33 yd interception (FITZPATRICK kick)	21	41

 

[Irishdrunk]

I think ND should play either an SEC Team or a team from a great recruiting area..... or perhaps kick the shit out of Nebraska.....to get that 8 Man TE to flip.... but of course that would mean Nebraska would actually win games.....

I say give me LSU, Bama or a rematch with OSU if they lose and can't make CFP.

 

[stlnd01]

I’d love LSU for the BK schadenfrude and because I’d bet Daniels doesn’t play and they have no offense to go with that trash defense.

Instead we’ll probably draw Oregon or a Bama with something to prove.

 

[indianamouse]

I want LSU simply for the fact BK never seems to have his teams ready for big games.

 

[NDQuebec]

I'm on the fence about playing LSU. A win would be awesome but a loss? I couldn't fathom it.

 

[arrowryan]

If ND can’t get into a NY6 bowl at 10-2, then I might as well quit watching if/when they lose their second game.

 

[Giddyup]

I'm on the fence about playing LSU. A win would be awesome but a loss? I couldn't fathom it.

YOLO!!!! I’m in on that game!

 

[dublinirish]

I'm on the fence about playing LSU. A win would be awesome but a loss? I couldn't fathom it.

You scared?

 

[NDQuebec]

 

[Crazy Balki]

If ND can’t get into a NY6 bowl at 10-2, then I might as well quit watching if/when they lose their second game.

It's irrelevant moving forward, but it depends on the year.

Depending on the year, what NY6 bowls end up being the playoff games means ND could have more openings to take or less.

In 2019, ND was 10-2 and didn't make a NY6. Reason being, that year, the playoff games were the Peach and Fiesta Bowls. Those two have only At-Large tie-ins. Meanwhile, the remaining NY6 bowls, the Rose Bowl is Pac-12 v. B1G, Sugar Bowl is SEC v. Big XII, Orange Bowl is ACC v. SEC/B1G/ND and Cotton Bowl is At-Large v. At-Large.

So there was only 2 openings for At-Large bids that year, since one of those 3 go to the highest ranked G5 team. So Florida, at 10-2, got one of the openings, and played Virginia, who I don't think was even ranked, but got in by virtue of the ACC tie-in. And Penn State got the other and got to play Memphis in the Cotton Bowl.

This year is different. The playoff games are the Rose and Sugar Bowl. Two games with strictly conference tie-ins. So this year, there are 6 potential tie-ins for ND. Win out and they'll be in a NY6 bowl.

 

[OhioIrish]

I'm on the fence about playing LSU. A win would be awesome but a loss? I couldn't fathom it.

The longer the possibility sinks in, the more I want it. To me, it’s the most winnable of the potential NY6 opponents (sans AFA). Plus, owning 3 straight vs. an SEC opponent would be the cat’s meow. Obviously, a win over BK is a win over BK.

 

[stlnd01]

It's irrelevant moving forward, but it depends on the year.

Depending on the year, what NY6 bowls end up being the playoff games means ND could have more openings to take or less.

In 2019, ND was 10-2 and didn't make a NY6. Reason being, that year, the playoff games were the Peach and Fiesta Bowls. Those two have only At-Large tie-ins. Meanwhile, the remaining NY6 bowls, the Rose Bowl is Pac-12 v. B1G, Sugar Bowl is SEC v. Big XII, Orange Bowl is ACC v. SEC/B1G/ND and Cotton Bowl is At-Large v. At-Large.

So there was only 2 openings for At-Large bids that year, since one of those 3 go to the highest ranked G5 team. So Florida, at 10-2, got one of the openings, and played Virginia, who I don't think was even ranked, but got in by virtue of the ACC tie-in. And Penn State got the other and got to play Memphis in the Cotton Bowl.

This year is different. The playoff games are the Rose and Sugar Bowl. Two games with strictly conference tie-ins. So this year, there are 6 potential tie-ins for ND. Win out and they'll be in a NY6 bowl.

Extra annoying because we beat Virginia and every other ACC team we played that year. We should demand access to the ACC's Orange Bowl slot in years they have a team in the CFP, as payment for saving their asses by bringing in Stanford and Cal.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Extra annoying because we beat Virginia and every other ACC team we played that year. We should demand access to the ACC's Orange Bowl slot in years they have a team in the CFP, as payment for saving their asses by bringing in Stanford and Cal.

Conference tie-ins are just utterly stupid, and should've been abolished years ago.

It's utterly ridiculous how a team with 3-4 losses end up in a NY6 by virtue of just being in a certain conference. Whereas another team might be screwed despite being 10-2.

North Carolina in 2020 (8-3)
Virginia in 2019 (9-4)
Wisconsin in 2019 (10-3)
Texas in 2018 (9-4)
Auburn in 2016 (8-4)
Florida State in 2016 (9-3)
Georgia Tech in 2014 (10-3)

That said, doesn't really matter now that we're moving to the 12-team playoff, essentially making all the NY6 games playoff games.

 

[stlnd01]

Conference tie-ins are just utterly stupid, and should've been abolished years ago.

It's utterly ridiculous how a team with 3-4 losses end up in a NY6 by virtue of just being in a certain conference. Whereas another team might be screwed despite being 10-2.

North Carolina in 2020 (8-3)
Virginia in 2019 (9-4)
Wisconsin in 2019 (10-3)
Texas in 2018 (9-4)
Auburn in 2016 (8-4)
Florida State in 2016 (9-3)
Georgia Tech in 2014 (10-3)

That said, doesn't really matter now that we're moving to the 12-team playoff, essentially making all the NY6 games playoff games.

Yep. It’s fine for a conference to get one guaranteed slot in a CFP/NY6. But their runner-up getting a guaranteed NY6 when their best team makes the playoff means some shitty teams get in over more deserving 10-2 teams.

But, as you said, this is basically the last year any of that matters. Which is fine.

 

[Irishdrunk]

OMG for any bitch on this Board to now NOT want a game with LSU for all the dumping on BK..... Maybe the punishment should be a BK grinding session on film.

Seriously, they will pair us with LSU.

Lets do it.

 

[OhioIrish]

OMG for any bitch on this Board to now NOT want a game with LSU for all the dumping on BK..... Maybe the punishment should be a BK grinding session on film.

Seriously, they will pair us with LSU.

Lets do it.

You’ve got a point. I’d love to see it. Prefer Bama, but would love LSU.

 

[IrishBoognish]

OMG for any bitch on this Board to now NOT want a game with LSU for all the dumping on BK..... Maybe the punishment should be a BK grinding session on film.

Seriously, they will pair us with LSU.

Lets do it.

Hello! I guess I'm a bitch on this board.

I don't wanna give BK or his shit employer anything. I want him to lose and not have the advantage of ND bailing them out with pub.

Gimme Pedo State and the opportunity to woop on Franklin and the program that shouldn't even exist.

That would make me happy.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

You scared?

Weird ass movie lol

 

[GATTACA!]

Weird ass movie lol

Ik it's a classic but I hate it. So boring and slow.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Hello! I guess I'm a bitch on this board.

I don't wanna give BK or his shit employer anything. I want him to lose and not have the advantage of ND bailing them out with pub.

Gimme Pedo State and the opportunity to woop on Franklin and the program that shouldn't even exist.

That would make me happy.

It’s a zero sum game for Brian Kelly.

Not only would the game be a MASSIVE draw, everyone hates Brian Kelly way more than they hate Notre Dame. People would tune in to see him lose to Coach Freeman, who many non-ND fans actually like.

We would have 49/50 states on our side for that game. America would come together to root for Kelly to be embarrassed, and nobody would ever forget it for the rest of time if he was.

Kelly wins the game, he’s still an asshole everyone hates, probably even more because he would say something stupid afterwards to stoke more flames.

Sign me up for this. I want it.


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[IrishBoognish]

It’s a zero sum game for Brian Kelly.

Not only would the game be a MASSIVE draw, everyone hates Brian Kelly way more than they hate Notre Dame. People would tune in to see him lose to Coach Freeman, who many non-ND fans actually like.

We would have 49/50 states on our side for that game. America would come together to root for Kelly to be embarrassed, and nobody would ever forget it for the rest of time if he was.

Kelly wins the game, he’s still an asshole everyone hates, probably even more because he would say something stupid afterwards to stoke more flames.

Sign me up for this. I want it.


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ok... when you put it like that.

you've changed my mind.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

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[IrishSpartan]

LSU vs ND would be interesting but Its honestly not the best year for all that would come from this matchup. Would be interesting though to see who would skip for LSU.