What's leaking out this morning seems to be that there are two divergent strategies:
1. Delaying outright until after election day, which will be either a lame duck period or affirmation that Trump has a second term. Even if Mark Kelly wins in Arizona and is seated on November 30th, you still have the 52-48 edge until January that you need to get someone pushed through. By not making any movement, it helps shield vulnerable senators as well as provide a "carrot" for conservative voters even if it doesn't actually matter who wins on election day because you're targeting the lame duck period.
2. Push a name forward now, maybe or maybe not get a vote before election day. You see where the momentum and debates take you. You go for a vote before election day you do it if and only if you know you're going to win, and if you think the positive momentum of that outweighs the negative momentum. If you don't think that's the case, you run on the idea that a vote for Trump is a vote for whichever justice you've tabbed. There seems to be a lot more inherent risk to this plan, but also potentially higher upside and you can shift focus away from COVID, etc. -- where Trump polls terribly -- to something forward looking where he could poll better.
Methinks they will float the name(s) right before the first debate, but not actually push for a floor vote until after November 3rd.
IDK. I just don't see a lot of advantage for anyone in waiting. And Trump looks to be pressing, and McConnell looks to be ready to roll.
Trump is behind in the polls, the GOP could lose the Senate, etc.. I think it would piss the GOP base off more if they waited. And like you said, this battle could detract from the Covid stuff.
Right now it's 53 vs 45+2. The GOP could lose 3 votes and still confirm (with a tie breaker by Pence) even if those 3 voted against (it's more likely some, or at least one would abstain than vote against).
And you have Collins with her seat up. She's already polling under 50% and can't afford to lose any base votes. Now she could also roll over assuming she's going to lose and send a FU message to Trump, but I'd predict she at worst abstains. A wildcard is Jones (Dem Bama) who is up too, and he relies on a lot of conservative folks. He barely won in 2017 special election and this would absolutely be an issue for him. He already is considered the most moderate Dem in terms of voting patterns, and is a close to the line, or closer than Collins.
If I were McConnell, I'd float the following names next weekend. All are good candidates, and pretty sure all mentioned before by Trump.
1) Amy Coney Barrett - this would create a lot of Catholic bashing by the left, likely tilting some Catholics riding the fence over to Trump regardless if she's the nomination or not.
2) Britt Grant - Southern white female, but went to Stanford, clerked for Kav, and currently sits in the 11th (Bama) which would likely require Jones to comment (adding more pressure to his seat being up).
3) Allison H. Eid - another white female, but from the West. From Seattle but resides in CO.
4) Barbara Lagoa - one of my dark horses. Hispanic/Cuban, female, and from FL. Getting votes from Hispanic in general, and also helping in FL with a large Cuban and Hispanic community.
5) Allison Jones Rushing - White female, but her name floated might help in the Carolinas.
6) Bridget Bade - Another white female, but from AZ where votes are needed.
7) Amul Thapar - could pull some Asian votes.
Anyway, those would be my 7 names floated. Mostly women. After a few days I'd cut it to two, Barrett and Lagoa to keep the Catholic and Hispanic buzz going. Lastly, picking whoever polls best.
